Comparison of two methods for estimating the number of undocumented Mexican adults in Los Angeles County

This article compares 2 different methods for estimating the number of undocumented Mexican adults in Los Angeles County. The 1st method, the survey-based method, uses a combination of 1980 census data and the results of a survey conducted in Los Angeles County in 1980 and 1981. A sample was selected from babies born in Los Angeles County who had a mother or father of Mexican origin. The survey included questions about the legal status of the baby's parents and certain other relatives. The resulting estimates of undocumented Mexican immigrants are for males aged 18-44 and females aged 18-39. The 2nd method, the residual method, involves comparison of census figures for aliens counted with estimates of legally-resident aliens developed principally with data from the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS). For this study, estimates by age, sex, and period of entry were produced for persons born in Mexico and living in Los Angeles County. The results of this research indicate that it is possible to measure undocumented immigration with different techniques, yet obtain results that are similar. Both techniques presented here are limited in that they represent estimates of undocumented aliens based on the 1980 census. The number of additional undocumented aliens not counted remains a subject of conjecture. The fact that the proportions undocumented shown in the survey (228,700) are quite similar to the residual estimates (317,800) suggests that the number of undocumented aliens not counted in the census may not be an extremely large fraction of the undocumented population. The survey-based estimates have some significant advantages over the residual estimates. The survey provides tabulations of the undocumented population by characteristics other than the limited demographic information provided by the residual technique. On the other hand, the survey-based estimates require that a survey be conducted and, if national or regional estimates are called for, they may require a number of surveys. The residual technique, however, also requires a data source other than the census. However, the INS discontinued the annual registration of aliens after 1981. Thus, estimates of undocumented aliens based on the residual technique will probably not be possible for subnational areas using the 1990 census unless the registration program is reinstituted. Perhaps the best information on the undocumented population in the 1990 census will come from an improved version of the survey-based technique described here applied in selected local areas.     

Change in the undocumented alien population in the United States, 1979-1983

"This article presents estimates of the number of undocumented aliens included in the April 1983 Current Population Survey (CPS) derived by subtracting an estimate of the legally resident foreign born population from the survey estimate of all foreign born residents.... Also presented are similar estimates for the November 1979 CPS.... Estimates are presented by period of entry for Mexico and other groups of countries. Comparison of the April 1983 estimate with the census-based estimate and the November 1979 survey-based estimate provide an indication of growth in the undocumented alien population for 1980-83."     

Undocumented residents in the United States in 1990: issues of uncertainty in quantification

"Uncertainties are abundant about the measurement of net undocumented migration [to the United States] and change over the past two decades. This analysis presents possible upper and lower boundaries on components for estimating legal migration in 1980-1989 and on the foreign-born population in 1990. Positing ranges for net undocumented immigration, between 2 million and 4 million undocumented residents may have been counted in the 1990 census. The total number of undocumented residents may have been as high as 6 million."     

Gender differences in the occupational status of undocumented immigrants in the United States: experience before and after legalization

"This article examines the incorporation of a national sample of undocumented immigrants both before and after they applied to legalize their status under the provisions of the [U.S.] Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 (IRCA). Data from the 1989 and 1992 Legalized Population Surveys (LPS-1 and LPS-2) are used. These surveys provide labor force and occupational data for three critical reference periods: as newly arrived undocumented immigrants, as experienced undocumented immigrants, and as documented immigrants.... The overall upward mobility of both men and women between first job and the occupation held at time of application for legalization continued after legalization. On average, men also continued to report higher status jobs than women, although women did somewhat better after their status was legalized." This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1997 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.     

Occupational status and mobility among undocumented immigrants by gender

Immigration has long been a national and state concern. The 1989 Legalized Population Survey (LPS-1) collected data on illegal immigrants to the US who subsequently became legalized aliens under the provisions of the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act. These data are used in a study assessing whether undocumented male and female immigrants improve their earnings and occupational status over time and the extent of variation in occupational status and mobility by gender and region. The data indicate that both undocumented men and women, on average, improved their earnings and occupational status between their first jobs in the US and their jobs just before applying for legalization under the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act. However, the earnings, occupational status, and occupational mobility of men were greater than for women.     

The sociodemographic characteristics of Mexican immigrant status groups: implications for studying undocumented Mexicans

"Based on Warren and Passel's...estimate that nearly two-thirds of Mexican-born noncitizens entering the U.S. during 1975-80 and included in the 1980 Census are undocumented immigrants, this article uses the 1980 Public Use Microfiles to delineate four Mexican origin immigrant status groups--post 1975 Mexican-born noncitizens, pre-1975 Mexican-born noncitizens, self-reported naturalized citizens, and native-born Mexican-Americans." It is found that "the pattern of sociodemographic differences among these groups provides support for the idea that the first two categories contain a substantial fraction of undocumented immigrants. These two groups (especially the first) reveal characteristics that one would logically associate with undocumented immigrants--age concentration (in young adult years), high sex ratios, low education and income levels, and lack of English proficiency."     

The U.S. legalization program: a preliminary final report

The Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) of 1986 made 4 types of aliens eligible to receive legalization benefits: 1) those who resided "continuously" in the US since January 1, 1982; 2) those who had worked in the US perishable-crop agriculture for 90 "man-days" in specified time periods (Special Agricultural Workers [SAWS]); 3) those who were in the US since before January 1, 1972; and 4) those classified as Cuban/Haitian entrants and who had been in the US since January 1, 1982. Estimates of the number of aliens eligible for legalization, not including SAWS, ranges from 1.834 million to 2.56 million. Estimates of undercounts of undocumented aliens are 10% for those who entered before 1975 and 37.5% for those who arrived after 1975. Other refinements in the estimates of undocumented aliens include adjustments for 1) ethnic group and location, 2) the growth of the undocumented population between the census date and the legalization eligibility date under IRCA, and 3) emigration and deportation rates. Out of the 1,581,800 applicants entered into the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) computers (from a total of 2.15 million applicants) as of May 20, 1988, 73.7% were Mexican nationals. Only 5 other countries contributed more than 1%: El Salvador (6.5%), Haiti (2.3%), Guatemala (2.2%), the Philippines (1%), and Colombia (1%). The Mexican percentage was unexpectedly high, perhaps because the legalization had been much more successful in the Southwest than anywhere else in the country. Reasons that Mexicans have a higher legalization participation rate than other nationalities include 1) the distant eligibility date; 2) ethnic differences among non-Mexican nationalities; 3) particularly in the northeast, fears of exposing one's illegal status to INS; 4) the difficulty of information reaching ethnic communities, 5) the reluctance of those already undergoing the naturalization process to risk the legalization process; and 6) the reluctance of employees to admit employment of undocumented aliens. In the end, more than 90% of applicants are expected to be granted temporary resident alien status (and about 70% of agricultural workers), for a total of more than 2 million people. Researchers estimate that 2.5 - 3 million more persons remain in an undocumented status in the US.     

The status and rights of undocumented aliens in the United States

At the most general constitutional level, American immigration law contains 3 structural features that directly affect the rights of aliens, including undocumented ones: 1) the plenary power of the national government over immigration and aliens, 2) the federal system per se, and 3) the separation of powers at the national level. 4 factors that affect the rights of undocumented aliens are 1) the possibility of formal relief from deportation, 2) the possibility of procedural challenges to deportation, 3) the possibility of delay and the resulting ineffectiveness of formal immigration enforcement, and 4) the informal system of enforcement to which the Immigration and Naturalization Service has been forced to resort. Undocumented aliens in the US have full acccess to state and federal courts, possess extensive procedural rights, and have acquired important substantive rights. Recent developments concerning the rights of undocumented aliens under domestic American law raise a number of questions that have not yet been squarely faced, much less resolved in satisfactory ways. These include: 1) the actual utilization by undocumented aliens of public benefits to which they are not legally entitled, 2) the appropriate criteria for determining which rights should be established, 3) the barriers that preve nt undocumented aliens from asserting those rights, and 4) the implications for an effective and fair US immigration policy of expanding undocumented aliens' rights.     

Using INS border apprehension data to measure the flow of undocumented migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico frontier

"This article examines how data on INS [Immigration and Naturalization Service] border apprehensions are related to the flow of undocumented migrants crossing the southern U.S. border. Its centerpiece is a demographic model of the process of unauthorized migration across the Mexico-U.S. frontier. This model is both a conceptual framework that allows us to see theoretical linkages between apprehensions and illegal migrant flows, and a methodological device that yields estimates of the gross number of undocumented migrants. One implication of the model is that, for the first time, the relation between apprehensions and illegal flows can be examined empirically. We show that the ratio in each period between apprehensions and the undocumented flow is simply the odds of being located and arrested on any given attempt to enter the United States clandestinely."     

Language skill definition: a study of legalized aliens

"The robustness of the model for the acquisition of destination language skills is studied using the Legalized Population Survey (LPS) of aliens who received amnesty under the 1986 [U.S.] Immigration Reform and Control Act. The English language proficiency variables include self-assessed overall speaking skills (the census question), speaking and reading skills in specific situations, perceptions as to whether language skills limit job opportunities, and measures of speaking and reading proficiency at work. The model is found to be robust across definitions of proficiency. Proficiency increases with exposure, efficiency and economic incentives for English language acquisition. The panel feature of the data is used to analyze changes in proficiency over time."     

The "amnesty" aftermath: current policy issues stemming from the legalization programs of the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act

"The 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) created two one-time only legalization programs affecting nearly 3 million undocumented immigrants. Legalization has produced important changes among immigrants and in immigration policy. These changes include new patterns of immigrant social and economic adaptation to the United States and new immigrant flows through family ties to IRCA-legalized aliens.... This article combines data from a longitudinal survey of the IRCA-legalized population with qualitative field data on current immigration issues from key informants in eight high-immigration metropolitan areas. It reviews the political evolution and early implementation of legalization, the current socioeconomic position of legalized aliens, and changes in the immigration ?policy space' resulting from legalization."     

Demographic consequences of migration trends in Puerto Rico: 1950-1980

"This paper examines the evolution and changes in migration patterns [in Puerto Rico] through the 1970's based on data from the 1980 census. The focus is on demographic consequences of migration, particularly with regard to population growth, redistribution and changing age structure." A final section is concerned with the socioeconomic implications of migration. (summary in FRE, SPA)     

The Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986: America amends its immigration law

This disucssion of the Immigration and Control act of 1986 covers legalization, employer sanctions, and foreign agricultural worker reforms. It also identifies other changes in immigration law. The Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 recognizes 4 types of aliens who are eligible to receive legalization benefits: those who have resided "continuously" in the US since January 1, 1982; those who have worked in US perishable crop agriculture for 90 "man-days" each year ending on May 1, 1984, May 1, 1985 and May 1, 1986 (special agricultural workers) or who have performed such labor for 90 man-days between only May 1, 1985 and May 1, 1986; those who have been in the US since before January 1, 1972; and those classified as "Cuban-Haitian entrants" and who have been in the US since January 1, 1982. Each legalization category has specific eligibility requirements, its own application procedures, and its own process for obtaining legal permanent resident status. The IRCA forbids employers from knowingly employing unauthorized aliens. For the 1st time in US immigration history, an employer would be punished for employing aliens without work authorization. An employer would be able to establish an "affirmative defense" in his or her behalf if the employer examined certain documents which appear to be genuine or the applicant was referred to him by a State employment agency which previously has verified the applicant's employment eligibility. If the employer is found to have violated the provisions, a cease and desist order will be issued with a civil penalty of between $250-2000 for each unauthorized alien for the 1st time the violation occurs, between $2000-5000 for each alien for the 2nd violation, and between $3000-10,000 for each alien for subsequent violations. The Act provides for criminal penalties for employers who engage in a "pattern or practice of violations." Employer sanctions will not be effective for 18 months following passage of the Act. The changes which the IRCA introduced in terms of foreign agricultural workers fall into 2 broad categories: a formula for recruiting foreign agricultural workers for permanent residence in the US beginning with 1990 (replenishment workers); and changes in the existing system of temporary foreign workers for agricultural work. Among other things, the Act also increases colonial quotas to 5000 from 600, offers special immigrant status to certain officers and employers of international organizations and their immediate family members; and offers nonimmigrant status for parents and children of aliens given spcial immigrant status.     

The seasonality of apprehensions of undocumented Mexican workers

"This article uses within-year apprehensions data to test the economic determinants of Mexican undocumented immigration to the United States. These data are highly seasonal and within-year border patrol apprehensions suggest that this seasonality is not solely due to changes in border patrol enforcement." It is found that both supply and demand variables affect apprehensions and that agricultural factors appear to be important determinants of the variations in apprehensions. The results are similar to those of earlier studies     

Long-term immigration to the United States: new approaches to measurement

"The United Nations has recommended the measurement of types of international migration using demographic criteria, including length of stay and purpose of travel. Information systems at the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) have the potential to provide a basis for documenting these demographic characteristics, in particular, length of stay of temporary migrants to the United States. This article analyzes these characteristics of selected categories of nonimmigrant aliens. The results of the analysis are used to produce series of estimates of alien immigration that conform more closely to the U.N. recommended definitions and better represent demographic concepts of long-term immigration. A strategy for measuring emigration of aliens from the United States using INS information systems is also described."     

The influence of legal status on the labor market impact of immigration

This article explores US labor market changes that would take place as a result of an amnesty that would regularize the status of undocumented workers without changing the total size of the alien workforce. The theoretical analysis suggests that the influence of legal status on market wage rates and on minimum wage enforcement is weak and that to the extent that there is an effect, it depends on particular institutional arrangements. Although data are not adequate for a definite measurement of these effects, those data that are available support this conclusion. It appears that the presence of undocumented as opposed to resident aliens can weaken union organizing efforts.     

Interviewing undocumented immigrants: methodological reflections based on fieldwork in Mexico and the U.S

"This article discusses data collection methods and basic issues of research strategy in field studies of unapprehended illegal immigrants living in the United States. It suggests ways to increase the reliability and validity of interview responses. Necessary modifications in format and style of interviews are described. An annotated bibliography of recent field studies of undocumented immigrants is provided."     

Undocumented migration to Venezuela

"In 1980 Venezuela took...steps to regularize the undocumented migrant population. While the number responding to the amnesty was small relative to expectations, the majority of illegals appeared to have regularized their status. For the first time it was possible to assess objectively the characteristics of the undocumented population. Moreover, the problem of illegal migrants seems to have been temporarily solved, a result of both the amnesty and the country's declining economic activity." Topics covered in the present article include the nationality, geographic distribution, sex and age distribution, educational status, and occupations of undocumented migrants.     

The social process of undocumented border crossing among Mexican migrants

"In this article a theoretical model is developed that views undocumented border crossing as a well-defined social process influenced by the quantity and quality of human and social capital that migrants bring with them to the border, and constrained by the intensity and nature of U.S. enforcement efforts. Detailed histories of border crossing from undocumented migrants originating in 34 Mexican communities are employed to estimate equations corresponding to this model.... As people gain experience in border crossing, they rely less on the assistance of others and more on abilities honed on earlier trips, thus substituting migration-specific human capital for general social capital.... On all trips, the intensity of the U.S. enforcement effort has little effect on the likelihood of arrest, but INS involvement in drug enforcement sharply lowers the odds of apprehension."     

The Changing Legal Status Distribution of Immigrants: A Caution

This article presents arguments and data to show that the decennial census and annual Current Population Surveys include immigrants falling into four broad legal status groups: naturalized citizens; legal immigrants; legal nonimmigrants; and undocumented migrants. Since 1986, the relative rewards and penalties imposed on these four categories have shifted dramatically in response to U.S. policies, as have the relative number of foreigners in each group. In general, the relative share of foreigners in the most vulnerable status groups has increased, with the proportion of undocumented migrants and legal nonimmigrant rising and that of legal immigrants falling. Researchers using census and CPS data need to be aware of the shifting distribution of foreigners by legal status over time and of the changing profile of opportunities experienced by each status group, and they need to exercise caution in their interpretation of trends with respect to immigrant assimilation and the effects of immigration on U.S. society.