中国生殖健康方案的推进和已婚育龄人口避孕模式转变——ICPD 10:避孕方法的医控模式和自控模式有变化吗

避孕节育是生殖健康极为重要的内容。文章利用国家人口和计划生育委员会1988年至2001年全国生育节育抽样调查和全国计划生育/生殖健康调查数据,分析了已婚育龄人口在避孕模式上的时空变化特征,在此基础上进一步研究了在已婚育龄人口的年龄、子女数和生活的不同区域环境等方面避孕模式的时空变化。结果表明,在我国人口转变的过程中,低生育水平下的避孕模式以及推行避孕节育知情选择后已婚育龄人口的避孕模式,特别是医院控制的避孕方法与自己控制的避孕方法的构成已经发生了变化,有必要进一步改善生殖健康服务的技术服务等。     

Population issues and social indicators of well-being

Relating demographers' measures of various population characteristics (size, growth/decline, density, age/sex structures, migration, et cetera) to measures of well-being recently developed within the social indicators movement promises to provide new knowledge about the linkage of population and well-being that can enhance decision making about important population issues. A conceptual schema is presented that suggests specific relationships to examine at various levels of aggregation, that helps to classify research already done in this area, and that helps to identify "holes" in the knowledge base. Some special methodological features of research in this area suggest considerable time and care will be required to produce dependable new knowledge. These include: (a) the inherent multilevel nature of the relationships (involving properties of individuals and collectivities); (b) the slow rate at which population characteristics change; (c) the absence of much good well-being data from the past; and (d) the limited nature of the collectivities for which population data are available.     

Slow-fast dynamics in a model of population and resource growth

"Models of the interaction of population, the economy, and the environment often contain nonlinear functional relationships and variables that move at different speeds. These properties foster apparent unpredictabilities in system behaviour. Using a simple deterministic model of demographic, economic and environmental interactions we illustrate the usefulness of geometric singular perturbation theory in environmental population economics. In contrast to local stability analysis, the theory of slow-fast dynamics helps to gain new insights into the global behaviour of the system. In particular, the knowledge of the basins of attraction of the stationary states enables one to determine the regions of sustainable future paths of resources and population." (SUMMARY IN FRE)     

Some problems concerning the population thought in the Ming and Quing dynasties]

After the middle of the Ming dynasty, the Chinese feudal system began to show some influence of capitalism in its production models. Changes began to take place in its political and economic systems. In 1723, a new method of household taxation was adopted to replace the traditional taxation system, which had been based upon the population of each household. Under the new system, taxation was based upon the size of the land each household owned. As a result of this change, the population showed rapid growth. Intellectuals began to form the concept of curbing excessive population growth. They also began to pay attention to the problems of adequate material supplies, overpopulation, and possible solutions. Chinese intellectuals and scholars of the late Ming and Qing dynasties, including Xu Guangqi, Hong Liangji, Wang Shifeng, and Xue Fucheng realized the serious nature of population growth. In fact, the population figure doubledever 30 years on a regular basis. The rapid population growth caused a decline in the living standard, higher prices for consumer goods, unemployment, a decline in the population quality, and social disorders. Hong Liangji suggested that natural disasters such as floods and droughts could help reduce the population, and that improvement in agriculture, emigration, and tax reductions could promote production. Wang Shifeng was in favor of using severe laws and restrictions on marriage to control population. Xue Fucheng proposed the idea of imitating Western countries to develop capitalism and industries and increase employment opportunities to reduce the pressure of the rapid population growth.     

A Preliminary Investigation of Risks for Adverse Outcomes of Relationship Seeking on Social Network Sites (SNS): A Descriptive Study of Women Over 50 Seeking Relationships on MySpace in Hillsborough County,Florida

In contrast to younger populations, little attention has been paid to the increase in seniors using Internet-based venues to find relationships and the potential risk for adverse outcomes this poses. This study examined data collected via an online survey from 45 ethnically diverse women aged 50+ “seeking relationships” on MySpace. The majority of women reported a relationship with someone they met online (85%). They also reported experiencing adverse events including financial exploitation (40%), threats (55%), and physical harm (38%) by someone they met online at levels greater than traditional relationship seeking in the general population. Directions for future research are explored.     

Slow‐fast dynamics in a model of population and resource growth

Models of the interaction of population, the economy, and the environment often contain nonlinear functional relationships and variables that move at different speeds. These properties foster apparent unpredictabilities in system behaviour. Using a simple deterministic model of demographic, economic and environmental interactions we illustrate the usefulness of geometric singular perturbation theory in environmental population economics. In contrast to local stability analysis, the theory of slow‐fast dynamics helps to gain new insights into the global behaviour of the system. In particular, the knowledge of the basins of attraction of the stationary states enables one to determine the regions of sustainable future paths of resources and population.     

主体功能区人口集聚与布局的研究--以云南省为例

人口集聚既是主体功能区划的重要指标．也是主体功能区优化布局的要求。本文从人地关系的基本理论出发,主要研究和分析在云南省主体功能区划中的人口集聚度指标。通过对云南省129个区县的人口集聚度指标值的数据计算和聚类分析,诠释和分析云南人口分布状况,以期给出客观可行的人口政策,促进云南省主体功能区建设。     

中国改革开放以来省际人口迁移重心演化考探

文章引入人口迁移重心的概念,并以此探讨改革开放以来中国省际人口迁移的区域模式及其变化。作者通过考察人口迁移重心与人口重心和经济重心位移的联动变化,发现相对人口分布,人口迁移与区域经济发展具有更密切的相互作用关系;改革开放以来的省际人口迁移,对中国实现人口与经济的均衡、协调发展发挥了重要作用。作者认为,促进西部地区人口向东部地区迁移,仍然是未来中国实现人口与经济均衡、协调发展目标的有效途径。     

人口老龄化过程中的代际关系新走向

此文首先介绍了国内有关代际关系的研究角度及其结论 :然后阐明了该论文所涉及的代际关系及其内容 ;重点论述了人口老龄化过程中的代际关系新走向及其产生的正、负两方面影响     

Using remote sensing and census tract data to improve representation of population spatial distribution: case studies in the Brazilian Amazon

This work proposes a methodological approach to redistribute population data obtained from polygonal census tracts into population density surfaces (grids) based on a cell space database. The methodology was first developed for the municipality of Marabá, Pará state, in the Brazilian Amazon. We used a dasymetric method to eliminate areas of environmental restriction to human presence; then integrated environmental data indicative of human presence to generate a potential surface of population occurrence; and finally, census population count data were redistributed into cells. The methodology was subsequently adapted for 13 municipalities of the Sustainable Forests District (SFD) of BR-163, generating population distribution surfaces for 2000 and 2007. The evolution of the resident population over the SFD-BR163 showed spatial patterns compatible with the occupation process described in the literature and verified by fieldwork. To be applied over other areas, the proposed methodology must be adapted with local parameters but in this way, population density surfaces can be useful as an additional data source to study population and environment relationships.     

The fiscal burden of rising dependency ratios

This paper explores the issue of the fiscal burden of population aging in Canada over the period from 2004 to 2026 by introducing a new methodological tool and using an approach that (a) is comprehensive with respect to government revenues and expenditures, (b) uses a fine disaggregation of government revenues and expenditures, and (c) integrates demographic, economic, and fiscal developments. The results indicate that the concerns about the ability of the existing fiscal system to withstand the pressures of population aging are unfounded. They indicate that, in the absence of an economic collapse, the existing fiscal structure will be able to handle the fiscal pressures of population aging. Instead of letting a nonexistent problem drive the course of fiscal policy in Canada, it would be more profitable to focus on avenues for making the fiscal structure a more effective tool for economic growth and human development.     

WOrkers for Australia: a profile of british and Irish migrants assisted to New South Wales in 1841

Convict transportation to New South Wales was terminated in 1841. It was swiftly replaced by a new population stock in the form of the greatest Australian immigration before the gold rushes. This profile of 20,000 British and Irish assisted migrants, based on individual-level data, establishes their age, sex, religious, educational and occupational characteristics. Their composition differed markedly from the existing colonial population and other migrant flows at the time. They reflected the recruiting methods of the time as well as the changing migration propensities in the British Isles. The migrants were better human capital than was acknowledged at the time. They constituted a new start in Australian demographic development. This reconstruction of the socio-economic characteristics of the 1841 migrants provides a new mid-century benchmark for systematic comparisons with other migrant populations, within and beyond Australia, and in other periods. It is a contribution to the quantitative study of colonial society.     

负担还是红利：新疆人口迁入与经济增长关系的量化研究

针对新疆人口净迁入急剧减少、人才流失加剧、劳动力出现有限供给,政府劳动力政策出现偏差等现象,分别从贡献率与边际效应两个视角对人口迁入与经济增长的关系进行了量化研究。根据改进后的经济增长率分解法测算了人口迁入对经济增长的贡献率后发现,1978-2013年,人口净迁入使新疆经济年均增长1个百分点。根据新古典经济增长核算理论与拓展的C-D生产函数测算了劳动力对经济增长的边际效应后发现,人口净迁移率每提高1个百分点,经济增长率可以提高0.24个百分点。量化研究的结果表明,新疆一直以来是我国主要的人口迁入地区,人口迁入并不构成新疆经济发展的负担,反而为经济发展带来了红利。     

中国清朝中期的人口迁移

清朝中叶,随着社会经济的恢复与发展,人口迅速增长起来,形成我国历史上第一个人口增长的高峰,人多地少的矛盾日益突出。为缓解严重的人口压力,失地农民和手工业者在无法生存的情况下被迫构成人口迁移的主力,由人口稠密地区向人口稀疏地区、由农村向商业经济发达的城市流动,使清中期的人口迁移出现新的特点及趋势。     

To be 20 and homosexual in France today

Being young and gay in Paris today poses a duality: The new generation of gay men and women have forgotten the historical consciousness of the gay liberation movement, yet their cultural identity and new way of life in a more modern France is a positive point. Thus, a new generation of gay young people growing up in a new cultural landscape and progressive attitudes of heterosexuals permit being optimistic.     

Age structure,growth, attrition and accession: A new synthesis

This paper shows that each equation describing relationships among demographic parameters in a stable population is a special case of a similar and equally simple equation that applies to any closed population and demonstrates some implications of these new equations for demographic theory and practice. Much of formal demography deals with functions that pertain to individuals passing through life, or to a stationary population in which births of individuals are evenly distributed over time. These functions include life expectancy, probabilities of survival, net and gross reproduction rates, expected years spent in various states and the probability that certain events will occur in the course of life. The stable population model permits the translation of population structure or processes in a more general type of population, with constant growth rates, back into equivalent populations for a stationary population. The method for translation developed in this paper, requiring only a set of age-specific growth rates is even more general, applying to any population. Age specific growth rates may also be useful for performing reverse translations, between a population's life table and its birth rate or its age distribution. Tables of numbers of females by single years of age in Sweden are used to illustrate applications. Tables summarize the basic relations among certain functions in a stationary population, a stable population and any population. Applications of new equations, particularly to demographic estimation of mortality, fertility and migration, from incomplete data, are described. Some other applications include; the 2 sex problem, increment decrement tables, convergence of population to its stable form, and cyclical changes in vital rates. Stable population models will continue to demonstrate long term implications of changes in mortality and fertility. However, in demographic estimation and measurement, new procedures will support most of those based on stable assumptions.     

人口-经济-环境系统耦合时序规律分析

人口-经济-环境系统的关系通过经济过程得以建立。我们以经济增长阶段为切入点．依据“各态遍历”假说,通过寻找环境和人口系统在经济增长过程中的变化特点,探寻出人口-经济-环境系统之间发展演变的规律。     

中国西部地区人口与自然资源的相互作用和影响

研究中国西部地区的人口与自然资源关系有着特别重要的意义。本文在分析西部地区自然资源条件和人口状况的基础上,研究了西部地区人口与自然资源相互作用的形式和后果,并提出了一系列改善西部地区人口与环境关系的对策和建议。     

Study on Standard of Population Aging

Do an increase in ageing in developed countries and"getting old before getting rich"in developing countries indicate that f luctuations in the population age structure have produced a qualitative change?What is a qualitative change and what is a quantitative change?Here we propose a new concept of Shadow Population,then establish a new standard for evaluating population age structure,finally present a typical five stage population age structure type transition model.The model simulation shows that all world regions are still in the adult stage and that population ageing belongs to the category of quantitative change.However,sustained low fertility will lead to a qualitative change in the ageing population.The current pressure of population aging in the adult stage placed on the pension security system shows that this system is truly not a sustainable system,Gradually raising the retirement age and Long-term stability in replacement fertility is the key to solving the socioeconomic development dilemma presented by future population ageing in low fertility regions or countries,but the latter is more urgent.     

中国新贫困人口及其社会保障体系构建的思考

本文从贫困概念及演化提出新贫困人口的定义和类型,认为新贫困人口是我国计划经济向市场经济制度转轨过程中的利益受损者,解决新贫困人口的生存权和发展权问题是政府的基本责任,由此从社会保障的内涵、功能和价值基础等角度阐释社会保障体系在解决我国新贫困人口问题的重要作用,并提出完善我国社会保障体系的对策思路。