ESCAP migration study gathers momentum

A comparative study is being conducted in the ESCAP (Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific) region on the relationships of migration and urbanization to development. The 1st stage of the study will entail the preparation of country reports on the census analysis of migration, urbanization and development. The 2nd stage will involve preparation of a series of national migration surveys. The 3rd phase will involve assisting member governments to formulate a comprehensive population redistribution policy as part of their national development planning. 1st-phase country reports have been completed in Sri Lanka, South Korea, the Philippines, and Indonesia. Migration in Sri Lanka has largely been rural-to-rural with little urbanization so far. The picture in South Korea has been the opposite, with rapid urbanization in the 1960s and 1970s; the government is hoping to divert some population to smaller cities away from Seoul. The pattern in the Philippines is 1 of urban primacy with the metropolis of Manila accounting for over 1/3 of the country's total population. Indonesia is characterized by a dense heartland in the Java-Bali regions. However, the rate of urbanization here has been slower. Migrants in all the countries studied are preponderantly young. The sex differential varies from country to country. The influence of migration on subsequent fertility is unknown.     

Population redistribution policy in Korea: A review

With its rapid industrial transformation over the last two decades, Korea has experienced a massive population shift from rural to urban areas. In particular, population concentration together with the concentration of economic and political power in the primate city of Seoul created spatial imbalances and a host of urban problems which are not uncommon to many developing nations. In response to these persisting imbalances and problems, the government of Korea has implemented various programs and measures since 1970. Korea's experiment with population redistribution, although it may not be easily replicated in other countries, provides a rare example with which we can examine some of the major issues involved in population distribution policies. The paper reviews Korean policies and programs for population redistribution, assesses their effects in redressing the three major spatial imbalances - between urban and rural, between regions, and between cities of different sizes - and draws lessons for policy formation in Korea as well as in other countries which are considering such a policy.     

Urban growth in Korea, 1970-1980: an application of the human ecological perspective

This study supports the ecological perspective proposed by Duncan (population, environment, organization, and technology) explaining urban population growth. Data were obtained from the 1970 and 1980 Korean Population Census and Korean Municipal Yearbook on cities with a minimum size of 20,000-50,000 people (108 cities and towns). Urban growth is most strongly influenced by indigenous labor surplus and the population potential of the city to be in contact with another city. Nine multiple regression variables explained just under 66% of the variance in urban growth. Net migration was influential among those aged 15-24 years. The extent of differentiation of industry affected net migration only among those aged 15-24 years and those aged 35-44 years. Population redistribution was more affected directly by changes in industrial organization, and migration was affected indirectly by environmental and technological effects on organization. Urban growth through migration of older age groups was affected by government expenditure on public works. Urban growth was not much affected by transportation/communication concentration, manufacturing concentration, urban labor surplus, population size, and site. Urban growth was viewed as the interaction between the unemployment rate and the urban wage, following Todaro's equilibrium models. In Korea, larger cities only grew faster during the 1960s. By the 1970s, upper middle-sized cities grew faster. Location was not a significant factor in explaining urban growth, but growth was rapid along a corridor within 100 km from Seoul and 50 km from Pusan, the second largest city in Korea. Caution was urged in interpreting Korea's ecological urban growth patterns as indicative of developing countries.     

Recent urbanization trends in peninsular malaysia

The pace of urbanization in Peninsular Malaysia was slower in the most recent intercensal interval, 1957 to 1970, than in the previous period, 1947 to 1957, Most of the small change in the rural-urban balance from 1957 to 1970 appears due to the growth of towns into the urban classification rather than to a redistribution of population into the previous urban settlements. A number of towns in Peninsular Malaysia do show exceptional growth from 1957 to 1970, but there seems to be no clear relationship between a city’s size and its subsequent growth. The rural areas on the outskirts of the largest cities do show rapid growth, especially the periphery of the capital city. It appears that neither the classic model of urbanization based upon Western experience nor the over-urbanization thesis explain the urbanization process in Peninsular Malaysia.     

Growth of small and intermediate cities in Korea, 1975-1980

"This paper examines the urban growth of 33 small and intermediate Korean cities during 1975-1980 from the ecological perspective. Using the multiple regression analysis, population growth of a city is measured by variables such as industrial structure, distance from a metropolitan city, and educational level of residents in a corresponding city. At the present development stage in Korea, those cities whose industrial structure is more specialized in the transformative sector rather than other sectors have grown more rapidly. The closeness to a metropolitan city and the educational level of residents for each city strongly influence urban growth of small cities."     

Population pressures in Latin America

In 1950 Latin America's population of 165 million was on a par with the 166 million of North America. 2 decades of growth at nearly 3% a year pushed the total to 405 million in 1985, vs. 264 million in North America. Despite substantial fertility declines since the 1960s, continued growth is ensured by the demographic momentum built into the region's large and youthful population bases. UN medium projections put the 2025 total at 779 million, compared to 345 million in North America. This Bulletin examines the main demographic changes in Latin America since World War II and their links to economic and social changes in the region as well as their implications for international and social relations. The post World War II population surge was accompanied by massive rural-ruban and international migration, rapid urbanization, large labor shifts out of agriculture into industry and services, increased education for both men and women, and higher labor force participation for females. The rural exodus was spurred by extreme land tenure inequalities and the urban bias of postwar industrialization. The labor-saving bias of this industrialization forced exploding city populations to turn to the informal sector for jobs. Population pressures on city services and housing as well as jobs have been further exacerbated by overconcentration in a few large cities and economic downturns of the 1980s. Recent fertility declines seem to be the result of both increased access to family planning and the economic and social pressures posed by the gap between young adults' aspirations and their ability to realize them. Population and economic pressures could induce faster fertility declines than now projected but in the short run are likely to mean more employment problems, continued rapid urban growth, and even larger international immigration flows within the hemisphere, particularly to the US.     

Korean patterns of women's labor force participation during the period, 1960-1980

"This article investigates how the patterns of Korean women's labor force participation have changed during the 1960s and the 1970s, [periods] of rapid economic development and social changes. The discussion focuses on the comparison of three sets of cross-sectional data derived from the 1960, 1970 and 1980 [Republic of Korea] censuses. Although not dramatic, the gross rates of women's labor force participation show an upward trend. A very high and rapidly increasing rate of rural women's labor force participation did not result in a big increase in the total rate because of the significant rise in the proportion of the population living in urban areas. However, the employment structure and patterns of women's labor force participation have changed significantly, especially in urban areas."     

A survey of population in the ESCAP region

In 1983, the ESCAP region added 44 million people, bringing its total population to 2600 million, which is 56% of the world population. The annual rate of population growth was 1.7% in 1983 compared to 2.4% in 1970-75. The urban population rose from 23.4% in 1970 to 26.4% in 1983, indicative of the drift from rural areas to large cities. In 1980, 12 of the world's 25 largest cities were in the ESCAP region, and there is concern about the deterioration of living conditions in these metropoles. In general, however, increasing urbanization in the developing countries of the ESCAP region has not been directly linked to increasing industrialization, possibly because of the success of rural development programs. With the exception of a few low fertility countries, a large proportion of the region's population is concentrated in the younger age groups; 50% of the population was under 22 years of age in 1983 and over 1/3 was under 15 years. In 1983, there were 69 dependents for every 100 persons of working age, although declines in the dependency ratio are projected. The region's labor force grew from 1100 million in 1970 to 1600 million in 1983; this growth has exceeded the capacity of country economies to generate adequate employment. The region is characterized by large variations in life expectancy at birth, largely reflecting differences in infant mortality rates. Whereas there are less than 10 infant deaths/1000 live births in Japan, the corresponding rates in Afghanistan and India are 203 and 121, respectively. Maternal-child health care programs are expected to reduce infant mortality in the years ahead. Finally, fertility declines have been noted in almost every country in the ESCAP region and have been most dramatic in East Asia, where 1983's total fertility rate was 40% lower than that in 1970-75. Key factors behind this decline include more aggressive government policies aimed at limiting population growth, developments in the fields of education and primary health care, and greater availability of contraception through family planning programs.     

Patterns of suburban population growth, 1970–75

Population redistribution within U.S. suburban rings between 1970 and 1975 was characterized by frequent population declines for individual suburbs. On the whole, recent spatial patterns of suburban population decline are similar in nature, if not overall levels, to those found in the 1950s and 1960s. Population decline is greatest in the inner suburbs, and is also evident, to some extent, in the most peripheral suburbs. Patterns for all metropolitan areas mask clear variation among metropolitan areas. This variation is related to metropolitan age or historical period of development.     

Migration in the Southeast

Between 1940 and 1960 the Southeast experienced both economic and demographic revolutions. They were interrelated in many ways. Agriculture was mechanized and reorganized making millions of farmers and farm laborers surplus. The natural assets of the region were developed and industry grew more rapidly than in other regions. There were marked changes in the labor force, a rapid increase in the proportion of women employed and a decrease in the proportion of Negroes. The level of family income rose faster than in other regions.Five and three quarter million persons were transferred from the farm population. A net of 2.7 million left the region and 3 million were absorbed in nonfarm areas within the region. In 1960 52 percent of the population was in cities. Increase was especially fast in metropolitan urban areas, mostly in suburbs. There were also substantial increases in the rural nonfarm areas. Small cities as a group showed no net in-migration. Among the net migrants out of the region the ratio was 4 colored to1 white.The age and sex distribution was warped, especially below age 30, slowing down the early marriage rate and the crude birth rate.The projection of the trend which was being followed in the early 1960s indicates that the regional rate of increase may overtake that of the rest of the country, being particularly rapid in the young adult and adolescent ages.For the purposes of this study the Southeast includes: South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. These were originally the heaviest cotton producing states and the heart of the sharecropping area where the reorganization of the economy was particularly disruptive.     

城镇人口过半的挑战与应对

我国城镇人口历史首次超过农村人口,达到51.27%,但这一社会结构历史性转变的背后却存在城镇化水平虚高的问题。如果将城镇人口总数扣除被迫城镇化且生活困难的失地农民,以及未享受市民待遇的流动人口,我国真实的城镇化水平约为41.6%。同时,城镇人口过半以后也面临诸多挑战:整个社会没有建立起顺应城市社会形态的价值体系;对于城镇的作用以及应该怎样发展城市缺乏清醒认识;城市管理对城镇化发展没有做好充分的准备;城市常住居民享有平等的市民待遇任重而道远。因此,应对城镇化挑战,提升城镇化质量的关键在于正确认识城市化的作用和实质,遵循城市发展的自身规律以及积极探索建设顺应城市社会形态的文化体系。     

汉城城市发展的人口轨迹及对上海的启示

上海核心城区人口密度是世界第一位,由此带来交通拥挤、环境污染、能源短缺等一系列问题,成为阻碍上海经济发展的巨大瓶颈。汉城与上海同是亚洲城市,在自然资源、经济发展历程和产业结构方面都非常相似。从上个世纪60年代开始,汉城经历了经济的高速增长,其人口也随之迅猛上升,上海面临的经济瓶颈也正是汉城曾经或者现在正面临的问题。本文深入研究了汉城政府在面临相似经济增长瓶颈时,为抑制人口增长所采取的各种手段,包括迁都、限制中心地区工业发展、建造新城等,对其政策动机和效果进行相应的分析评价,并比较分析了汉城人口与经济增长之间的相关关系,借鉴其经验教训来解决上海中心城区拥挤问题,认为适当减少上海中心城区人口会有利于上海经济的发展,并在此基础上制定合理的城市发展策略,以实现上海的持续健康稳定发展。     

Annexation as a factor in the growth of U.S. cities, 1950–1960 and 1960–1970

The incidence of annexation, the growth in the original area and in the area annexed, and the proportion of growth due to annexation between 1950 and 1970 are analyzed for U.S. cities grouped by size, metropolitan status, and region of the country. Over this period, annexation was a principal means of population growth for incorporated places outside the Northeast. Though often associated with metropolitan growth, annexation was even more important in the growth of nonmetropolitan cities. Overall growth differences by size of place, metropolitan status, and decade (1950--1960 or 1960--1970) could not be explained by the incidence and nature of annexation.     

Quality of life declines in big and growing cities. Poverty in cities

The quality of life in developing countries during the first couple of decades after the Second World War was higher in cities than in small towns and villages. However, the relative advantage of city dwellers in developing countries has declined since the 1970s, with high-growth rate cities experiencing a more severe decline. Infant mortality levels in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s are as high in large cities as in the smallest towns and villages. In most developing regions, big city residents are increasingly disadvantaged, such that researchers and policymakers can no longer assume that the quality of life in urban areas is better than in rural areas. The urban transformation of the developing world is similar to the 19th century urbanization of now-developed countries, but today many more people are crowding into far bigger cities. Using survey information from 43 countries representing 63% of the developing world's urban population outside of China and India, Martin Brockerhoff of the Population Council and Ellen Brennan of the UN Population Division found that rapid population growth and big size have overwhelmed the capacity of cities to provide essential goods and services.     

The transition to nonmetropolitan population deconcentration

A major aim of this study is to address our lack of understanding of rural-urban population change within nonmetropolitan counties of the United States. Specifically, we (a) examine trends between 1950 and 1975 in differential rural and urban growth rates within nonmetropolitan counties, and (b) examine the relationship between county location/function and within-county deconcentration. We show that the post-1970period has not simply marked the net shift of population from metropolitan to nonmetropolitan areas, but has also ushered in a pattern of population deconcentration within most nonmetropolitan areas. It is also clear that traditional ecological and economic base variables have been of diminishing utility in explaining deconcentration during the 1970s, suggesting that deconcentration is now evident in nonmetropolitan counties characterized by a broad spectrum of economic and sociodemographic traits.     

On the ‘Urbanness’ of Metropolitan Areas: Testing the Homogeneity Assumption, 1970–2000

In recent decades, population dynamics, have made definitions of what localities are rural or urban somewhat unclear. The vast majority of demographic work has simply used metropolitan classifications with various forms of a non-metropolitan residual (e.g., adjacent to metro versus non-adjacent). The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) periodically redefines metropolitan areas, which makes temporal comparisons difficult. In fact, some demographers have offered the idea that, due to these shifting reclassifications, the so-called “rural rebound” is a misnomer, in that non-metropolitan counties that transitioned to metropolitan status were, in fact, already more ‘urban’ than those that did not become reclassified as metropolitan (Johnson et al 2005). This argument depends largely on the assumption of homogeneity in rural or urban ‘character’ in those counties. Following arguments by others (Wilkinson 1991; Isserman 2001; Bogue 1950), we take population and land use into account to examine whether these transitional counties were more or less urban than comparable others, all at the county level for the contiguous 48 states for 1970–2000. Our results show that adjacent non-metropolitan counties that were later reclassified as metropolitan were indeed characterized by a larger population and heavier urban land cover than those not making this transition. However, the results also show that metropolitan areas were also quite heterogeneous in terms of traditionally rural activities. A discussion of the homogeneity assumption in demographers’ conceptualization of metropolitan areas is included.     

空间城市化机制和人口城市化目标——对中国当代城市化发展的一项研究

无论从城市人口变化还是城市空间变化角度观察,以上个世纪90年代中期为界,中国的城市化都经历了两个不同的阶段。90年代中期以来的城市化是以地方政府经营土地使用权为内在动力的空间城市化过程,这一机制是由一系列土地法规催生形成的。这一城市化机制的主要问题在于:它无意于解决人口城市化中跨省市流动人口的异地城市化问题;它造成空间意义上低效率的假性城市化;更为重要的是,它造成了具有宏观影响的土地金融风险。本文基此认为,应该制定相关政策调整和规范地方政府策动的空间城市化机制,规避其产生的问题,通过激励设计促进城市化在机制与目标方面的协调。     

Is Nonmetropolitan America being repopulated? The evidence from Pennsylvania’s minor civil divisions

We analyze population change and net migration, by age and sex, from 1940 to 1970, for 1,834 Nonmetropolitan Pennsylvania Minor Civil Divisions (MCD's) classified by residence, population potential, socioeconomic status, and distance from metropolitan centers. Our analysis indicates, as expected, reconcentration of residents from both urban and remoter nonmetropolitan localities into exurban peripheries 25 to 35 miles for metropolitan centers. Since 1960, however, a "turnaround" appears in many truly rural tracts, which have been experiencing an influx or retention of persons 35 years of age and older. Statistical explanations are strongest for males in poor, isolated places, weakest for more accessible, socioeconomically advanced places and their female inhabitants. Throughout the study period and area, nonurban MCD's register more positively than the rural.     

Population growth in the 1990s: Patterns within the United States 1

Census 2000 counted 281.4 million people in the UnitedStates, up 13.2 percentfrom the 1990 Census population of 248.7 million and thehighest percent increasefor the nation since the 1960s. Population growth in the1990s was not only higherthan in recent decades, it was also more geographicallywidespread, with more states,counties, and cities experiencing population gains.This paper examines populationgrowth during the 1990s for a variety of geographiclevels, including regions, divisions,states, metropolitan areas, counties and large cities.It then compares growth rates forthe 1990s with earlier decades to provide a historicalcontext to present-day trends inpopulation growth and decline. Finally, it discusses howdifferential population growthin recent decades has resulted in a new form of populationdistribution in the US.     

On population of urbanization]

Unlike cities in capitalistic societies our socialistic cities are publically owned, and the relationship between rural and urban areas is mutually supportive and beneficial. 2 types of calculations are required for successful urbanization: an estimate of the total labor required in the city and an estimate of total agricultural products required to support the cities. Disregard for these 2 factors and overpopulated cities will result in unemployment, decreased agricultural production, inflation, and a decreased living standard. A balance between cities and country is important, and therefore population urbanization should be well planned. Capitalistic urbanization of population is based on the principle of private ownership and competition--from unplanned concentration of population in big cities to malignant expansion to the final decline of inner cities. Their governments are forced to redistribute the urban population. The same problem of overpopulated cities in underdeveloped countries results from stagnant agricultural production. We should learn from their mistakes in developing our cities. There are 2 types of socialistic urbanization. Russia has lopsidedly emphasized urban development and ignored agricultural production. Romania, on the other hand, emphasized both labor force distribution and agricultural production. Their numerous small cities near rural areas decrease the difference between big cities and the country. In the past we failed to follow our direction of urbanization--control the size of big cities, reasonably develop mid-sized cities, and actively develop small cities--because of the great difference in living standards between urban and rural areas and the lack of urbanization plans. The concept of industrialization must be accompanied by the concept of population urbanization.