Federal Statistics in a Complex Environment: The Case of the 1980 Census

The taking and the interpretation of something as big and as complicated as the national census is more than an exercise in statistical thinking. It involves other diverse fields such as ethics, epistemology, law, and politics. This article shows that a national census is more akin to so-called ill-structured problems. Unlike well-structured problems, the formulation of an ill-structured problem varies from field to field and from person to person, and the various aspects of an ill-structured problem (i.e., ethics, epistemology, etc.) cannot be clearly separated from one another. The 1980 census is discussed as an ill-structured problem, and a method for treating such problems is presented, within which statistical information is only one component.     

Classification by race and Spanish origin in the 1980 census and its impact on white and nonwhite rates

A basic change concerning the racial classification of persons of Spanish origin used in the 1980 U.S. census is examined for its impact on white and nonwhite population counts, particularly in urban areas. "Arrest rates by race for central city Phoenix together with 1980 census data by race and ethnicity for Phoenix and 11 other central cities are used to illustrate the substantive effect of changes in the white and 'other race' counts produced by this change in procedure." The authors consider "remedies for the problems faced by those using published census data..., and one possibility for creating comparable rates is presented. Closely related complications created by the failure of the Office of Management and Budget to arrive at a single, logical statistical standard for the classification of U.S. residents by race and ethnicity are also identified."     

The first complete enumeration of Papua New Guinea--the 1980 population census

"The 1980 Population Census of Papua New Guinea was the first complete enumeration of the population of the country. It was also the first census to be designed and processed within the country. This paper gives the background to the census and outlines the development and implementation of the project, concentrating on the problems encountered and the procedures developed to overcome them in this (in many ways) unique environment. The census project was a thorough exercise and recommendations are also given for the future."     

Some coverage error models for census data

"Alternative models are presented for representing coverage error in surveys and censuses of human populations. The models are related to the capture-recapture models used in wildlife applications and to the dual-system models employed in the vital events literature. Estimation methodologies are discussed for one of the coverage error models." After a discussion of the theory underlying the methodology, "distinctions are made between two kinds of error: (a) sampling error and (b) error associated with the model. An example involving data from the 1980 U.S. census is presented. The problem of adjusting census and survey data for coverage error is also discussed."     

关于人口统计调查方法体系存在的问题和改革设想

我国现行的人口统计调查方法体系是“以经常性的人口抽样调查为主体,以人口普查为基础,重点调查等为补充的多种方法的运用”,但随着经济社会的快速发展,“以普查为基础,经常性抽样调查为主体"的人口统计调查方法体系,与政府、社会对人口信息多层次、精细化、时效性的需求变得不适应,在实践中显露出矛盾和问题。本文以下将对当前人口普查和人口变动情况抽样调查,在人口统计中作用和存在问题做出分析,在此基础上提出人口统计的改革设想,并落实到具体的解决办法,以2020年第七次人口普查为契机,建立《人口统计与管理服务数据平台》,并结合社区网格化管理进行年度更新,取得年度全国、省级及省级以下的常住人口数据;同时改革人口抽样调查的内容,结合手机信令大数据在人口统计中的应用,完善人口统计调查方法体系。     

Censuses of population and housing in Africa: some issues and problems

"A census of population and housing, which contributes immensely to the development of social statistics and national statistical services in general, has been carried out at least once in every African country except Chad. The common issues and widespread practices of design, implementation, processing, and evaluation of this census are reviewed. Also reviewed are the problems that arise at each of these stages of conducting the census; problems arising as a result of the socio-economic and physical peculiarities of African conditions."     

Linear sensitivity measures in statistical disclosure control

The mathematical properties of a class of functions called linear sensitivity measures are investigated. These measures are applied to the problem of maintaining the statistical confidentiality of respondents to a census or statistical survey such as an establishment-based economic survey. Sensitivity criteria in practical use are cast in this setting.     

基于线性模型的生猪生产数据调整及其波动特征研究

客观准确的数据是揭示生猪生产波动规律的首要条件。第二次全国农业普查后,官方对部分年份的生猪生产数据进行了调整,分析发现:所调整数据的虚报率符合线性变化规律,故在此基础上构建线性修正模型,对1985—1995年生猪生产数据进行调整,并利用调整后的数据对中国生猪生产波动特征进行分析,得出三点结论:第一,20世纪80年代前后相比较,生猪生产平均波动周期长度有所增加;第二,生猪生产的收缩期长度和收缩强度均大于扩张期的相应特征,即中国生猪生产波动的下滑特征更为明显;第三,生猪生产波动幅度呈现"U"型变化趋势,且现阶段正处于波动幅度不断加剧的过程。因此,有必要继续加强对生猪生产波动规律的探寻和监测,为缓解中国生猪生产波动提供可靠依据。     

中国经济普查的组织机制与 数据质量控制

 本研究通过梳理2004年中国经济普查中的技术环节和组织环节，说明将普查的全过程纳入中国政府的行政系列，从组织体系和技术组织层面上保障了普查的数据质量；但这种行政组织方式也存在三个一般统计调查不宜发生的“调整性误差”、“局部整体性误差”和“心理倾向性误差”。要消除这些误差就要完善政绩考核评价体系，科学定位经济普查功能，改革经济普查组织方式，提高统计部门独立性，改进普查经费保障机制、数据采集方式。     

Empirical Bayes estimation of undercount in the decennial census

Empirical Bayes methods are used to estimate the extent of the undercount at the local level in the 1980 U.S. census. "Grouping of like subareas from areas such as states, counties, and so on into strata is a useful way of reducing the variance of undercount estimators. By modeling the subareas within a stratum to have a common mean and variances inversely proportional to their census counts, and by taking into account sampling of the areas (e.g., by dual-system estimation), empirical Bayes estimators that compromise between the (weighted) stratum average and the sample value can be constructed. The amount of compromise is shown to depend on the relative importance of stratum variance to sampling variance. These estimators are evaluated at the state level (51 states, including Washington, D.C.) and stratified on race/ethnicity (3 strata) using data from the 1980 postenumeration survey (PEP 3-8, for the noninstitutional population)."     

Enhancing statistical education by using role-plays of consultations

Summary.  Role-plays in which students act as clients and statistical consultants to each other in pairs have proved to be an effective class exercise. As well as helping to teach statistical methodology, they are effective at encouraging statistical thinking, problem solving, the use of context in applied statistical problems and improving attitudes towards statistics and the statistics profession. Furthermore, they are fun. This paper explores the advantages of using role-plays and provides some empirical evidence supporting their success. The paper argues that there is a place for teaching statistical consulting skills well before the traditional post-graduate qualification in statistics, including to school students with no knowledge of techniques in statistical inference.     

统计调查中回答误差的计量

统计调查中回答误差的计量赵俊康ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＩｔｉｓａｖｅｒｙｉｍｐｏｒｔａｎｔｐｒｏｂｌｅｍｄｅｍａｎｄｉｎｇｐｒｏｍｐｔｓｏｌｕｔｉｏｎｔｈａｔｈｏｗｔｏｅｓｔｉｍａｔｅｒｅｓｐｏｎｓｅｅｒｏｒｉｎｓｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃａｌｓｕｒｖｅｙｓ．Ｔｈｉｓ...     

住户调查中代表性样本的一种探索获取方法——平衡抽样设计

住户调查是我国社会经济统计调查体系的重要组成部分,样本代表性直接决定统计数据质量。多阶段抽样中初级单元的方差对估计的影响是主要的,因此本文结合2010年全国第六次人口普查分县数据,采用平衡抽样设计获取初级单元的代表性样本-平衡样本。对代表性样本的事后评估结果表明,样本结构与总体结构吻合,目标估计的误差很小,说明了本文平衡设计的有效性。     

The growth of urban population in the Philippines: 1975-1980

The growth of the urban population of the Philippines between 1975 and 1980 is described using data from the 1980 census. The article also updates the number and population of urban areas classified on the basis of 1970 urban definitions.     

An evaluation of population projection errors for census tracts

"In this article we evaluate the accuracy and bias of projections of total population and population by age group for census tracts in three counties in Florida. We use [U.S. census] data from 1970 and 1980 and several simple extrapolation techniques to produce projections for 1990; we then compare these projections with 1990 census counts and evaluate the differences. For the total sample, we find mean absolute errors of 17%-20% for the three most accurate techniques for projecting total population and find no indication of overall bias. For individual age groups, mean absolute errors range from 20%-29%." This is a revised version of a paper presented at the 1993 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.     

Test procedures for the analysis of experimental designs with correlated nonnormal data

Using Monte Carlo methods, an examination is made of two statistical methods used for hypothesis testing in a general factorial model with a known correlation structure General correlation structures are given in Smith and Lewis (1980) and Pavur and Lewis (1982) which allow the usual F statistic to be corrected by a constant. The corrected F statistic would be the usual F statistic multiplied by a correction constant. A comparison is made between this corrected f statistic and the rank transform F statistic presented by Conover and Iman (1976). When the usual F statistic and the rank transform statistic are corrected for correlationt this simulation study shows that these statistical tests behave well under a variety of situations when not all f the usual assumptions of an ANOVA are satisfied.     

Statistical materials. Part 3: fertility,mortality, and natural increase

In this one-page statistical summary, data are presented for the USSR as a whole on fertility, mortality, and natural increase. The data are for five-year intervals from 1940 to 1980 and for single years from 1980 and are presented in terms of both totals and rates.     

An alternative view of the 2001 census and future census taking

Summary.  The 2001 census in the UK asked for a return of people 'usually living at this address'. But this phrase is fuzzy and may have led to undercount. In addition, analysis of the sex ratios in the 2001 census of England and Wales points to a sex bias in the adjustments for net undercount—too few males in relation to females. The Office for National Statistics's abandonment of the method of demographic analysis for the population of working ages has allowed these biases to creep in. The paper presents a demographic account to check on the plausibility of census results. The need to revise preliminary estimates of the national population over a period of years following census day—as experienced in North America and now in the UK—calls into question the feasibility of a one-number census. Looking to the future, the environment for taking a reliable census by conventional methods is deteriorating. The UK Government's proposals for a population register open up the possibility of a Nordic-style administrative record census in the longer term.     

吉林省现代服务业发展的现状、问题与对策

内容提要：通过对2004年吉林省经济普查数据及相关统计年鉴数据进行分析,明确吉林省现代服务业现状,找出其存在的问题,并在此基础上提出相应对策。     

A controlled donor imputation system for a one-number census

Summary. The 2001 UK census was a one-number census. An integral part of such a process has been the creation of a transparent census database that has been adjusted for the underenumeration in the 2001 census. The methodology for creating this database is based on a controlled donor imputation system that imputes individuals and households estimated to have been missed in the census. This paper describes this methodology and provides results from a statistical assessment of its performance using data that realistically simulate the census process.