工程造价管理及造价风险研究

加入WTO以后,我国经济被迫纳入全球经济一体化轨道,彻底的融入到了世界经济的大潮中。国外的承包商逐渐进入国内市场,使我国的建筑市场竞争激烈。所以,我国需要尽快推广国际通行的工程造价的管理手段,建立一种符合我国国情而又与国际接轨的工程造价管理体制,促进我国建设市场健康,以提高投资效益。工程项目实施过程中的风险因素对工程造价具有显著的影响,直接关系到项目投资经济效益的实现。确切的说,工程造价风险管理有利于业主或投资者能够根据自己的承受范围,在项目早期更准确的把握投资决策,从而更好地进行风险防范和管理。根据研究表明,工程造价模拟式有效的风险分析方法,为进行工程造价风险管理提供了技术上和方法上的支持。     

浅议概预算定额制的现状和发展趋势

本文这里对概预算定额管理存在的问题进行了详细分析,主要针对我国定额决策归属权问题、定额基价管理制过于僵化、取费标准不统一和取费计算繁琐等问题,结合我国的实际发展情况,从我国工程造价管理体制改革、工程造价咨询机构发展、工程造价管理人才培养和工程造价信息化建设等方面入手,针对各领域存在的问题,提出改革提议。     

对工程造价管理的探讨

本文通过分析我国建设工程造价控制与管理的现状、存在问题,提出了合理确定和有效控制工程造价,加强工程造价咨询机构和工程造价队伍建设,加快建设工程造价管理体制改革以及建立完善的符合市场经济规律的工程造价管理体系等方面的见解。     

政府性投资项目工程造价审计方法的研究分析

随着我国投资管理体制改革的不断深化,目前已形成了"谁投资、谁决策、谁受益、谁担责"的投资管理基本原则。随着投资自主权的落实,投资责任追究制度的完善,不论国家或企业,其风险意识正逐步加强。为了保障建设资金的合理使用,防止贪污挪用、损失浪费等问题发生,工程造价审计在政府性投资项目管理中显得越来越重要。本文将从审计局的角度浅析工程造价审计方法的运用和。     

试论如何有效加强工程造价管理

随着我国经济体制改革的不断深化,建筑领域也迅猛发展,如何采取科学、有效的措施来加强工程造价管理,是当前投资和造价改革的一项重大任务.有效的工程造价管理不仅能够提高企业的效益,而且能够促进我国建筑领域更加稳定、持续、规范化发展.本文主要分析工程建设前期、施工期和使用期影响工程造价的因素,进一步探讨建筑企业如何有效地控制工程造价,进而提高企业的经济效益.     

有关现阶段监理造价管理的思考

随着改革开放的不断深化和市场经济体制的逐渐完善,我国工程造价管理体制的改革正朝着正确的方向发展,但针对工程建设全过程的动态的工程造价管理至今并未真正形成,目前较多看到的还只是一些相互割裂开来的各个建设阶段的造价管理,由于它们“条块分割,彼此互不关联,所以我国工程项目造价管理的水平还呈现在非常初期的阶段,近几年来如火如荼发展起来的、依托工程建设监理进行项目工程造价管理的现状,就充分体现出目前所处阶段的初级性。     

浅谈工程造价信息化管理的问题与对策

本文初步分析了我国现阶段工程造价管理信息化面临的问题,对信息化可能给工程造价管理带来的变革进行了初步研究,并对工程造价管理信息化的推进提出一些设想。     

浅谈工程造价有效控制及管理

质量是工程的生命,造价是工程的生命线,有效的工程造价管理和控制能够为工程质量提供保证,为降低工程造价提供助力。本文以分析我国工程项目在造价控制中常出现的问题和不足作为切入点,通过研究分析工程造价控制的方法,探讨降低工程造价的管理措施,以期为我国工程造价控制实务贡献力量。     

略论工程造价的信息化管理

工程造价管理的信息化就是用现代信息手段改造传统造价管理,创造新的造价管理理念和管理体系,提高造价管理水平和效率。本文初步分析了我国现阶段工程造价管理信息化面临的问题,对信息化可能给工程造价管理带来的变革进行了初步研究,并对工程造价管理信息化的推进提出一些设想。     

依据我国工程造价管理的现状谈如何对其有效管理

工程造价管理有两层含义：一是建筑工程概预算管理;一是建筑产品价格管理。我国现行的工程造价管理制度表现为国家直接参与和管理的经济活动。随着经济和社会的发展,这种国家直接参与管理的经济活动凹陷出许多问题。工程造价管理工作是一项复杂的系统工程,与国家、企业、个人等有着十分密切的关系,这就要求工程造价必须进行全过程、多方位的管理,才能使建设项目达到高效合理。     

组织环境对工程项目成本管理影响研究——基于中铁二局的案例分析

工程项目成本管理是施工企业生存发展的关键所在。本文从组织环境这一宽泛的视角,探讨组织内外部环境中对工程项目成本管理产生影响的重要因素。以中铁二局为研究对象,通过实地访谈研究识别企业组织环境对工程项目成本管理的影响因素。本文应用扎根理论,通过对访谈数据逐级编码分析,构建了基于组织结构、控制体系和社会关系等三大支持系统的"3S"理论,从而揭示组织环境对工程项目成本管理的作用机制和对企业成本管理的意义。     

成本管理系统解析:实务发展、制度变迁和学术研究

中西方成本管理的发展进程存在明显区别,且存在多种概念混用现象.本文运用系统观点从成本管理实务历史发展、制度变迁和学术研究三个视角对中西方成本管理系统进行考察,明确中西方对成本管理系统本身的界定以及系统的后果和先决变量.在此基础上,给出我们对成本管理系统的界定,进而明确成本管理系统的设计思路.     

Engineering change: A theoretical assessment and a case study

The competitive playground where nowadays firms struggle to survive has rapidly become unforeseeable: product life cycle has shrunk, becoming even shorter than in the past, and world-wide market is suffering for a strong customer differentiation which led to an increasingly wide product mix. In this industrial environment, the engineering change process is getting more and more attention throughout the branches of industry, as it appears as a critical process which seeps into the operations management core, thus influencing the overall firm's performances. A brief state-of-the-art in the area of engineering change is firstly presented. Then a proposal of classification and a new methodology for an effective engineering change process management are suggested. The new proposed methodology has been successfully applied to a real-life manufacturing system and the related case study is reported at the end of the paper.     

论建设项目工程造价管理范式的科学转换

本文阐述了我国建设工程造价管理的主导模式应该按照逐步由全过程造价管理和全生命周期造价管理向全面造价管理范式转换的原因和步骤。同时,本文还讨论了现有各种建设项目工程造价管理范式的差异和它们各自所适用的情况以及建设项目工程全面造价管理的核心思想和基本原理与方法。     

A proposed methodology for the prediction of mental workload, based on engineering system parameters

In the design of engineering systems, mental workload is one of the most important factors in the allocation of cognitive tasks. Current methods of task allocation have criteria that are defined in only general terms and are thus not very useful in aiding detailed decision-making in system design. Whilst there are many quantitative criteria available to determine the physical space in human-machine interaction, system designers really require an explicit model and specific criteria for the following identification of the mental workload imposed by the system; prediction of both human and system performance; evaluation of the alternatives of system design; and the design of system components. It is argued that the available methods of workload or performance are either too domain-dependent to apply to the design of other systems, or subject-dependent and thus do not reflect the objective workload imposed by the system. The presented research adopts a new approach to cognitive task analysis in dynamic decision-making systems. Based on the characteristics derived from task analysis, a general conceptual model of the prediction of mental workload in system design is proposed. In the new model, workload is represented by a set of system parameters—task arrival rate, task complexity, task uncertainty, and performance requirements—which are considered to be the main sources of workload. In this context, workload becomes an objective demand of engineering systems, independent of any subjective factors. Whether an individual or population is overloaded depends upon their workload threshold with respect to the specified task and environment. It is hoped that this new model, after both laboratory and industrial validation, could be used by system designers to predict the workload imposed on people by systems.     

Using Electronic Medical Records in Admission Decisions: A Cost Effectiveness Analysis

In recent years, the healthcare sector has invested heavily in medical information systems to improve decision making while reducing medical costs and integrating medical data from multiple sources. However, the overall contribution of this technology to the medical field remains controversial, especially in high‐stress environments such as the emergency department. This article evaluates the differential effects of accessing an electronic medical record (EMR) system on the decision to admit, based on diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), which is one of the main reasons people go to the emergency department. The admission decision with or without accessing the EMR system is modeled as a decision tree and a Markovian process. A cost‐effectiveness analysis compares the added value of information (retrieved from the EMR system) against the cost of providing this information. This model is then tested on a simulation of patients presenting symptoms of AMI. The results show that use of the EMR led to greater cost‐effectiveness in cases of suspected AMI. The findings of this study may assist physicians by demonstrating a probable contribution of EMR to improved medical outcomes and may inform policy makers in the healthcare sector regarding the advisability of investing in such systems in an emergency department.     

Finding and fixing systems weaknesses: probabilistic methods and applications of engineering risk analysis.

Methods of engineering risk analysis are based on a functional analysis of systems and on the probabilities (generally Bayesian) of the events and random variables that affect their performances. These methods allow identification of a system's failure modes, computation of its probability of failure or performance deterioration per time unit or operation, and of the contribution of each component to the probabilities and consequences of failures. The model has been extended to include the human decisions and actions that affect components' performances, and the management factors that affect behaviors and can thus be root causes of system failures. By computing the risk with and without proposed measures, one can then set priorities among different risk management options under resource constraints. In this article, I present briefly the engineering risk analysis method, then several illustrations of risk computations that can be used to identify a system's weaknesses and the most cost-effective way to fix them. The first example concerns the heat shield of the space shuttle orbiter and shows the relative risk contribution of the tiles in different areas of the orbiter's surface. The second application is to patient risk in anesthesia and demonstrates how the engineering risk analysis method can be used in the medical domain to rank the benefits of risk mitigation measures, in that case, mostly organizational. The third application is a model of seismic risk analysis and mitigation, with application to the San Francisco Bay area for the assessment of the costs and benefits of different seismic provisions of building codes. In all three cases, some aspects of the results were not intuitively obvious. The probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) method allowed identifying system weaknesses and the most cost-effective way to fix them.     

企业集群成本协同管理效应研究

本文旨在突破交易成本理论的约束,应用企业网络理论并结合企业集群协同创造价值的特点,来揭示企业集群上下游的成本协同管理需要考虑的问题.依据所揭示的问题和已有的研究成果,我们提出了集群成本协同管理的协同效应假设,应用问卷调查收集数据和统计分析方法证实了所提出的假设,得到如下的结论:在企业集群中,成本协同管理的认同度和上游企业的配合程度越高,核心企业的作用越大,集群成本协同管理效应就越大;同时,研究也支持了企业网络理论的协同管理机制可保障增加协同效应.本文对成本管理理论的主要贡献是提出和证实了集群协同成本管理的协同效应假说,同时也为企业管理者如何利用集群的协同管理来创造企业价值提供了理论依据.     

建设项目的费用控制以及项目费用管理系统的需求

对于许多项目而言,费用严重超支、交付成果低劣的现象更凸显了需要对项目管理流程进行有效的管理和控制。本文叙述了项目从概念设计阶段到完工整个生命周期的有效费用控制,并介绍了进行这种控制所需要的项目费用管理系统在大型建设项目上的应用。     

The Representation and Impact of Information System Reliability on Cost Variance Decisions*

Management does not directly observe cost variance processes from the production system; instead, management depends on a report from the cost variance information system as to whether a process is in control or out of control. Unfortunately, cost variance information systems are not always perfectly reliable. Accordingly, this paper extends the cost variance analysis model to include reliability of the cost variance information system. Reliability is introduced by distinguishing between the report from the information system and the actual cost variance. Although previous cost variance models do not include reliability, management is still likely to be aware of the lack of reliability in cost variance systems. To account for this lack of reliability, management is likely to use any of a number of heuristics. This paper demonstrates that ad hoc heuristics are unlikely to result in the same solutions suggested by the analytic model. In addition, it is shown analytically that not including reliability in cost variance models can lead to examining variances that do not require investigation and not examining variances that do require investigation.