东亚与南亚地区间经济关系及发展趋势

东亚与南亚因发展水平上的差距而形成了两个极不对称的经济区域,目前两区域间的经济联系比较薄弱。主要原因是双方目前并不属于相同的区域经济体系,两地区间缺乏向心力和关联产业,区域间经济联系的规模受到南亚经济能力的约束。东亚＂西扩＂是解决上述问题的趋势路径,其内涵是以东亚向南亚的产业转移为纽带,将拟建的东亚独立区域市场与南亚的工业化启动进程联结起来,实现世界经济中这两个高增长地区的结构性连接和共同发展。     

近年来东西部地区农村经济发展比较研究

近年来农村区域经济发展表现出一些规律性的变化和新的特点,但东西部地区农村经济发展差异仍然存在,其原因也比较复杂。近期促进东西部农村经济协调发展的思路主要有:积极落实党的农村政策;东部地区继续加快农业现代化建设步伐;西部地区重点是加强生态建设、发展特色优势产业;实现区域经济发展中的良性循环。     

发展通道经济 培育西部民族地区自我发展能力

我国西部少数民族地区是经济发展起点较低,增长较难的区域。从经济增长、社会稳定和可持续发展的共同要求来看,该区域需要培育自我发展能力。在探讨发展通道经济对培育西部少数民族地区自我发展能力的影响基础上,提出发展通道经济,培育西部少数民族地区自我发展能力的对策。     

Stimulating effects of intelligent policy on the performance of listed manufacturing companies in China

Based on the pilot projects of intelligent manufacturing of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People’s Republic of China and the annual data reported by listed companies, this paper studies the effect of China's intelligent policy on the performance of listed manufacturing companies by using the panel data of relevant enterprises from 2011 to 2017, as well as the mechanism of impact. Our empirical tests, using the difference-in-difference method, shows that intelligent policy can significantly improve the economic performance of manufacturing enterprises by guiding enterprises to optimize their intelligent management, strengthening investment in intelligent equipment and promoting collaborative manufacturing. Further empirical tests show that the impact of intelligent policy on economic performance is different in time. In the later selected pilot enterprises, the impact of intelligent policy on their economic performance is more significant; there is regional heterogeneity in the effects of intelligent policy: in regions with low intelligence, the positive impact of intelligent policy on the economic performance of manufacturing industry is more significant. Based on these conclusions, relevant intelligent policy suggestions are put forward.     

Has Transport Infrastructure Promoted Regional Economic Growth？—— With an Analysis of the Spatial Spillover Effects of Transport Infrastructure

在综合考虑多维要素对中国区域经济增长的协同作用的基础上,构建交通基础设施对区域经济增长的空间溢出模型,利用1993．2009年的中国省级面板数据和空间计量经济学的研究方法,实证分析得出以下主要结论。（1）中国交通基础设施对区域经济增长的产出弹性值合计约0．05．0．07,表明其对中国区域经济增长具有重要的作用。（2）中国交通基础设施对区域经济增长的空间溢出效应非常显著,若不考虑空间溢出效应,会高估交通基础设施对区域经济增长的作用。（3）外地交通基础设施对本地经济增长表现为以正的空间溢出效应为主,但是也有空间负溢出的证据。（4）在影响区域经济增长的多维要素中,劳动力与其他公共部门资本存量对中国区域经济弹性的贡献仍然较大,新经济增长因素与新经济地理因素的作用也不容忽视。     

我国区域发展的战略、态势及京津冀协调发展分析

本文通过对中国区域发展的基本态势和区域协调发展内涵的分析,提出各地区之间经济发展水平和发展实力差距形成的主要原因,除区位、自然资源、历史基础外,近年来经济全球化、信息化发展以及大都市经济区的形成等因素是导致中国区域发展差距扩大的主要因素,而从区域不平衡到较为平衡是一个长期的发展过程。在此基础上,对京津冀地区在中国对外开放大格局中的地位进行了分析,指出以京津为核心的大都市经济区正在形成。同时,就如何正确看待天津滨海新区的地位、作用提出个人观点。     

退耕还林与秦巴山区农民生活来源替代模式研究

退耕还林是整个西部大开发的根本点和切入点。退耕还林区大多都属于经济贫困地区 ,经济效益的强烈追求导致了偏离生态目的现象的发生。建立最低生活保障基金 ,调整产业结构走产业化道路 ,剩余劳动力外出务工 ,生态旅游等方式 ,是解决退耕还林区农民生活来源的几种有效模式。     

Corruption, anti-corruption, and inter-county income disparity in China

The rapid economic growth in China has been connected with a large income gap across regions. While most existing research has focused on economic factors to explain the problem, we argue that local government's anti-corruption endeavors also play a very significant role in influencing local income levels. Recent research shows that corruption undermines economic growth and generates poverty, we therefore hypothesize that government anti-corruption measures should increase local income levels. Using county-level data and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimates, we find counties with higher degree of anti-corruption tend to have higher income measured by county-level per capita GDP. We also employ a recently developed Shapley value decomposition technique to quantify the contributions of each variable. We find that anti-corruption plays a large role in explaining inter-county income disparity in China.     

SPECIAL ISSUE： REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AND COORDINATED URBAN GROWTH Spatial Spillovers and the Convergence of Regional Economic Growth： A Case Study Based on the Yangtze River Delta

空间俱乐部趋同是指经济增长初始条件和结构特征相似且空间上相邻的一组区域的经济增长收敛于相同的稳态,是区域经济增长俱乐部趋同的一个新研究领域,其发生机制是空间外溢促成区域经济出现地方化增长,进而导致空间俱乐部趋同。运用包含空间外溢的区域经济增长理论模型可以证明,空间外溢有可能导致空间俱乐部趋同。对中国长江三角洲1990--2007年区域经济增长过程所做的经验分析也表明,空间外溢对区域经济增长确有影响,空间俱乐部趋同客观存在。在考虑空间外溢的情况下,长江三角洲的空间俱乐部趋同速度为1．57％。     

Social security: Indispensable solidarity

Social security must be considered not as an economic burden, but as a collection of mechanisms for collective solidarity based on the principle of income redistribution. The economic and social transformations that the various regions of the world are going through, in particular the globalization of the economy, are making social security increasingly necessary. Instead of yielding to proposals for the privatization of schemes — a formula that is less efficient and more expensive — we should be protecting and improving social security; developing it in those countries where its position is still weak; and stressing that, while its objectives are humane and social, it brings economic benefits too.     

Impact of Providing Off-Site Economic Development Funds to Dependent Regions Surrounding the U.S. DOE's Major Nuclear Weapons Sites

Using an interregional econometric simulation model, a comparative analysis was made of the economic impacts of providing funds for environmental management, education, and infrastructure to the regions surrounding four of the United States Department of Energy's massive former nuclear weapons sites in Idaho, Tennessee, South Carolina, and Washington. Infrastructure funds were used to build sewers, water lines, roads, bridges, and maintain existing infrastructure. Education funds were invested in higher education, primary and vocational schools, books, and libraries. Environmental management funds were invested in on-site remediation. Education produced the most jobs and personal income per dollar of investment, followed by environmental management. Infrastructure, by far, produced the least impact. An important reason for these results is that the relatively small regional economies surrounding these sites are unable to supply the goods and services required for major expansions. Hence, there is considerable leakage of investments to other regions. The limitations of these models to capture feedbacks from investments is emphasized.     

刍议我国区域间经济发展的差异问题

改革开放以来,我国区域间经济发展差距日益扩大,已成为影响我国经济发展、社会稳定的重要因素。形成区域间市场发育程度不同的原因:政策体制环境差异、循环累积效应、地方市场分割,加剧了区域间市场发育程度的差距。为此,应采取相应的对策。     

中心城市经济辐射能力差异比较研究

近年来,区域经济发展问题成为我国经济发展中的一个战略问题,受到中央和地方的广泛关注和重视。区域经济发展的质量与速度在很大程度上取决于区域内中心城市的辐射扩散功能。运用动态脉冲函数模型与时间序列收敛模型分别测算上海与北京的经济辐射能力,研究表明：上海的经济辐射能力远大于北京,造成这一差异的原因是多方面的,如城市规模、经济腹地实力、产业结构关联程度、区域一体化程度,等等。长三角地区的发展模式为其他区域经济发展战略乃至全国区域协调发展战略提供了启示。     

Development Rates and the Optimum of Production Accumulation and Consumption in Socialist Countries

The rate of economic growth is a major problem of the socialist countries' economy. On this rate depend the period of time to achieve their socialist and communist transformations, as well as the outcome of their economic competition with the advanced capitalist countries. The development rates are inseparably linked with strengthening the economic and political power of each socialist country and the entire socialist system, as well as with their capacity to exert a decisive influence on the course of world history. Mankind's progress in each historical epoch has always been determined by new socio-economic relations which provide full scope for faster growth of productive forces and cultural potentialities, i.e., are progressive economically and politically.     

包容性增长：背景、概念与印度经验

包容性增长作为一种新的经济社会发展理论,旨在坚持发展经济,坚持社会公平正义,坚持以人为本,让经济全球化和经济发展成果通过扶贫政策、扩大生产性就业领域、提高人力资源能力和社会保障能力等途径,惠及所有国家和地区,惠及所有人群。本文分析了包容性增长理论诞生的背景,归纳了其概念内涵,总结了印度实施包容性增长的主要做法。     

农民工经济贡献自我评价差异的影响因素研究

随着改革开放的深入，农民工对流入地的经济贡献越来越大。但就农民工个体而言，他们对经济贡献的自我评价受到各种因素的影响而存在差异。本文从农民工的流出/流入地、人力资本、经济回报、社会接纳和社会认同等五个方面入手，通过建立Logistic回归模型，探讨并分析影响农民工对流入地经济贡献自我评价的诸多因素。结果表明，除了流出/流入地对经济贡献自我评价并不显著，其余四项对经济贡献自我评价作用显著。     

Optimizing the “demographic dividend” in young developing countries: The role of contractual savings and insurance for financing education

Many developing regions are facing a youth bulge, meaning that young people comprise the highest proportion of the population. These regions are at risk of losing what could be a tremendous opportunity for economic growth and development if they do not capitalize on this young and economically productive population, also referred to as the “demographic dividend,” defined as the increase in economic growth that tends to follow increases in the ratio of the working‐age population – essentially the labor force – to dependents. Nations undergoing this population transition have the opportunity to capitalize on the demographic dividend if the right social, economic, and human capital policies are in place. In particular, Sub‐Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and North Africa are at risk of losing the demographic dividend. These regions face high youth unemployment, low primary school completion, and low secondary school enrollment. This results in an undereducated and unskilled segment of the population. The prohibitive costs of education prevent young people from finishing school, thereby entering the labor market unprepared. This article presents a case for youth‐focused financial inclusion programs as one of the antidotes to the masses of poor, undereducated, and low‐skilled young people swelling the labor markets of poor developing countries.     

外商在我国西部的投资环境评析

外商到西部地区投资所关注的首要问题是投资环境 ,投资环境的优劣将对外商投资的动机和行为 ,投资的数量和质量产生重大的影响。我国西部地区政治稳定 ,民族团结 ,丰富的矿产资源和独特的旅游资源为外商在西部投资创造了良好的条件。但是 ,西部地区公路、铁路、通讯等基础设施还很落后 ,生产力相对落后 ,经济体制滞后等不利因素的存在阻碍着外商到西部地区投资。为吸引更多的外商在西部投资 ,今后国家要给予比东部更加优惠的政策 ,但要防止过渡优惠的政策酿成“政策竞争”的倾向。     

金融危机的逻辑及其社会后果

目前中国的经济问题,从表面看来,是在美国金融危机冲击的背景下发生的,但从根本上来说,是一场从生活必需品时代向耐用消费品时代转型转不过去而形成的传统的生产过剩危机。原发于美国的金融危机只是引发并加速了正在酝酿中的中国的生产过剩危机。因此,美国的问题不一定是中国的问题。中国目前所面临的问题更具有传统的生产过剩危机的特点。这是我们分析中国在这次危机中一些重要问题的前提,而对经济危机产生的社会后果的讨论,也必须建立在这一前提的基础之上。中国所面临的问题主要是表现在实体经济的层面及其该问题向社会层面的传导。在这种情况下,我们面临的重要任务是,利用经济危机的机会,真正实现发展方式的转变,为从生活必需品时代顺利转型到耐用消费品时代创造条件;同时进行社会安全网络的建设,形成可以隔绝或减缓经济危机向社会层面传导的过滤机制。     

Regular Adjustment of Financial Parameters of Social Protection Systems in Volatile Inflationary Environments

This paper addresses the problem of periodical adjustments of financial parameters which govern the revenue side of social protection systems and adjustments of social benefits-in-payment in a volatile visionary environment: in short, the indexation problem. It attempts to provide an insight into this problem by focusing on cyclical wage movements, usually ignored in economic and actuarial projections. Preliminary results are drawn from two numerical examples, showing impacts on social security finances, equity and consumption. Some general conclusions are drawn, notably the problem affects both pay-as-you-go and funded systems. Essentially, in terms of adjustment as in other spheres, when it comes to addressing problems in the present, past experience is not necessarily the best basis for constructing a rational future.