Modeling for insights,not numbers: the experiences of the energy modeling forum

It has often been contended that the primary goal of policy modeling should be the insights quantitative models can provide, not the precise-looking projections—i.e. numbers—they can produce for any given scenario. Students of the energy policy process, in particular, have noted that preoccupation with the plethora of detailed quantitative results produced by large-scale computer models has substantially impeded their influence on key policy decisions. The creation of the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) at Stanford University in 1976 represents one potential remedy for that situation. The EMF was formed to foster better communication between the builders and users of energy models in energy planning and policy analysis. The EMF operates through ad hoc working groups, composed of national and, more recently, international energy modeling and policy experts. These working groups conduct studies concentrating on a single energy topic. The diversity of backgrounds of the working group members ensures that the language of the EMF studies is English, not computer. Each working group identifies existing models relevant to the study's focus. A series of tests is then designed by the group to illuminate the models' basic structure and behavior. A comparison of results is published in a widely distributed report that identifies the models' strengths and weaknesses in the context of the study's topic. Seven EMF studies have been initiated to date: (1) Energy and the economy, (2) Coal in transition, (3) Electric load forecasting, (4) Aggregate elasticity of energy demand, (5) US oil and gas supply, (6) World oil and (7) Macroeconomic impacts of energy shocks. Each EMF study has broadened the understanding of the nature of the relevant policy issues and the models that have been, are, or could be used to address them. The present paper describes how each study's key insights were developed in the context of a simplified analytical framework that provided the proper perspective for understanding the model results.     

Learning from mixed OR method practice: The NINES case study

Despite continued interest in the use of mixed OR/MS methods, limited attention has been paid in the literature to generic lessons that could be gained from mixing methods in practice. Many organisational problems demand the use of a mixed method approach and thus recognising and sharing lessons could prove beneficial to both practitioners and researchers. This paper reports on an in-depth evaluation of a case study involving risk identification and quantification of the Northern Isles New Energy Solutions (NINES) project which sought to trial and plan a new energy system. The intervention involved a mixed method approach and client feedback on the efficacy of the approach was sought. The evaluation reported in this paper is carried out using a set of themes taken from the literature and seeks to highlight transferable lessons. The set of lessons that emerge are presented along with their implications for both general OR modelling practice and the specific situation of mixing OR/MS methods. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of the work and directions for future work which will be of interest to both practitioners and researchers interested in mixed method OR/MS work.     

Multiple criteria decision analysis of treatment and land-filling technologies for waste incineration residues

In this paper, we present a real-world case realized in Switzerland on behalf of the federal agency in charge of the waste policy. The incineration of urban wastes generates hazardous residues that need specific treatment and/or land-filling technologies. The variety of local situations and appraisals led to the choice of very different solutions. Moreover, proponents were keen to propose new technologies. The purpose of this study was to provide the background for a national policy that would apply to all future projects.     

能源补贴改革对资源效率和环境污染治理影响研究——基于动态CGE模型的分析

本文构建动态CGE模型,以化石和可再生能源补贴政策为对象,模拟不同类型能源补贴政策改革对经济发展、资源效率、碳排放及雾霾治理的差异性影响。研究表明：总体而言,能源补贴政策对宏观经济具有积极的促进作用,但在一定程度上会提高能源消费强度;不同类型的能源补贴政策方案影响的差异性较大,化石能源在促进经济增长的同时,对环境改善和碳排放目标实现产生不利影响,特别是煤炭补贴能有效降低能源使用成本,极大促进产业总产出和经济增长,但会不利于环境改善,对可再生能源补贴有利于能源利用效率提高和人均资源盈余改善,降低污染物和雾霾排放增速;因此,必须注重不同类型能源补贴政策协调性和差异性,短期内以化石能源补贴为主,长期而言,应逐步加大可再生能源补贴,更加有利于低碳转型和环境改善。     

Energy modelling for technology assessment: the MARKAL approach

The primary objective of energy policy in many countries is to change the structure of their energy systems so as to reduce the dependence on imported oil. A large amount of funds is spent on energy research and development. The technologies competing for such funds have widely varying characteristics. These relate to costs and benefits, technical performance, environmental effects, the requirements for land, water and materials and the impact on employment. It is necessary to analyse these effects in some detail before decisions on technology programmes can be made. A complete assessment of the possible value of a particular technology cannot be made on an individual basis. It is necessary to consider many technologies simultaneously, competing against each other for various shares of the energy market. However, analysing the behaviour of the entire energy system requires the handling of an extensive amount of data and can only be done effectively with the help of a computerised system. The model, MARKAL, described in this paper is a multi-period linear programming model which has been developed and applied by 15 OECD countries for the purpose of energy technology research and development planning. Examples of the use of the model for this purpose are given both for the group as a whole and for individual countries. The model is structured so that an exogenously specified set of end-use demands must be satisfied given available technologies and energy supplies. The model allows for substitution possibilities in both the energy supply and demand sectors. A feature of the model is the use of varying objective functions such as minimum discounted costs, oil imports, or environmental effluents. These can be used individually or in combination in trade-off situations. The broader question of the use of energy modelling for technology assessment, including its limitations, is also discussed with particular reference to the insights that can be gained from the MARKAL model. Information from the MARKAL model has been used by the International Energy Agency to assist it in formulating a strategy for energy research development and demonstration.     

Energy modelling: A new challenge for management science

The Arab oil embargo in 1973 and the subsequent price rises and production restrictions have given birth to a distinct branch within Management Science: energy modelling. This paper gives a critical and selective review on energy modelling, an industry which though thriving in an era of general economic anxiety, is showing signs of arrogant immaturity. After giving a historical background, the paper classifies energy models into three groups: open loop demand or supply models; energy closed loop models; energy-economy closed loop models. For each group the problem area is analysed and some illustrative examples are described. In the last sections, an attempt is made to sum up the experience that has been gained with energy modelling: the basic deficiencies, the impact of this activity on policy formulation and its position within Management Science. It is concluded that energy models, though very poor forecasting devices, can be very useful to policy makers as tools for analysis; energy model developers must convince potential model users and for that purpose they can benefit immensely from the 35-year-long experience accumulated by their colleagues in Management Science.     

基于社会福利的可再生能源R&D激励政策评价

可再生能源发电新技术的R&D投资策略通常对企业价值和消费者剩余起到作用相反的不同影响,从而对基于社会福利的可再生能源电力R&D激励政策的科学制定带来挑战。针对旨在通过研发可再生能源发电新技术从而垄断清洁能源新兴市场的两非对称企业,结合投资时机选择期权博弈和社会福利模型,通过数值模拟以分析社会福利与影响其变化的补贴政策及其它诸多因素间的动态变化特征并提出相应的可再生能源电力R&D激励政策建议。结果表明:若以社会福利最大化为目标,在发电新技术R&D补贴和上网电价补贴政策的各组合应用中,企业间的R&D能力差距越大、可再生能源发电新技术的初始价值越大以及R&D成本越高,政府越应该鼓励可再生能源企业进行合作研发,反之则应鼓励竞争;随着电价补贴的提高,企业间的R&D竞争应受到鼓励;一定范围内,R&D补贴和电价补贴均能提高社会福利。论文创新性地揭示出可再生能源电力R&D投资的最优投资时机选择、电价补贴政策组合与社会福利三者间应有的内在联动关系,为政府对可再生能源电力的有效激励和管理提供富有价值的决策参考。     

基于不同补贴主体的新能源汽车制造商定价决策研究

基于政府目前对新能源汽车消费者及制造商实施补贴的现实背景，假设两家技术水平不等的新能源汽车制造商所生产的产品之间存在替代关系，将制造商产品之间的价格和质量差异纳入考虑范围，构建了新能源汽车制造商最优定价模型，求解了在不同补贴方式下的最优定价方式，并在均衡状态下对模型进行了数值模拟和分析。研究结果表明，在不同补贴方式下，制造商将根据市场竞争环境和补贴投入的变化情况采取不同的定价策略。政府针对消费者的补贴可以使技术水平相对落后的制造商获得更高利润，促使更多的制造商进入新能源汽车产业。对制造商的补贴可以使较高技术水平的制造商获得更高利润，从而促进新能源汽车产业的优胜劣汰。政府补贴主体应由消费者逐步转向制造商，通过政策引导制造商和消费者进一步增进其对新能源汽车质量的重视程度，推动新能源汽车产业的良性发展。     

Construction of the trans-Alaska oil pipeline

The tangible components of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System are outlined and the Integrated Project Planning and Management Cycle is visualized from the General Organizational Matrix viewpoint: then the multiple command structures in one large-scale Arctic Energy Project are analyzed retrospectively to test some a priori expectations about project managment. A number of lessons emerge from actual experience that may aid in the management of future energy projects.     

Energy and the economy— A reply to Smil and Kuz

In the June 1976 edition of this journal Smil and Kuz discussed the case for saying that there are quite firm relationships between energy consumption and GDP. They argued broadly that there was no general relationship, but, instead, the individual countries are locked into individual patterns of energy consumption. The proponents of the ‘there is a relationship’ school of thought include the author of this reply who is employed in the Economics and Programmes Branch of the U.K. Atomic Energy Authority.     

New Directions in Revenue Management Research

Research in revenue management is rapidly changing as the environment in which firms operate changes. The Internet, the adoption of new information technologies, and other market forces are driving a new wave of research in revenue management. At the same time, more and more industries are adapting the tools of revenue management to their needs. Promising research directions are more sophisticated models of consumer behavior, more general models and understanding of rivalry, and more general pricing mechanisms. These are important issues for today's revenue managers and promising areas for both theoretical and empirical research.     

Production lot sizing with process deterioration and machine breakdown under inspection schedule

The paper develops integrated production, inventory and maintenance models for a deteriorating production system in which the production facility may not only shift from an ‘in-control’ state to an ‘out-of-control’ state but also may break down at any random point in time during a production run. In case of machine breakdown, production of the interrupted lot is aborted and a new production lot is started when the on-hand inventory is depleted after corrective repair. The process is inspected during each production run to examine the state of the production process. If it is found in the ‘in-control’ state then either (a) no action is taken except at the time of last inspection where preventive maintenance is done (inspection policy-I) or (b) preventive maintenance is performed (inspection policy-II). If, however, the process is found to be in the ‘out-of-control’ state at any inspection then restoration is done. The proposed models are formulated under general shift, breakdown and repair time distributions. As it is, in general, difficult to find the optimal production policy under inspection policy-I, a suboptimal production policy is derived. Numerical examples are taken to determine numerically the optimal/suboptimal production policies of the proposed models, to examine the sensitivity of important model parameters and to compare the performance of inspection and no inspection policies.     

The EFOM 12C energy supply model within the EC modelling system

This article describes the EC-EFOM 12C model in general and refers where possible to existing documentation. It also reports on the first completed experimental case study and on planned future analysis. This model was developed in one of the research programs undertaken by the European Commission aimed primarily at multinational studies. Data are obtained from research carried out by an interactive network of national implementation teams working with a central group at the Commission. The energy system used is an oriented network carrying the primary energy over intermediate stages till finally meeting consumers' demand. The numerical information, constituting the attributes that characterise the various energy transformation processes, is stored in the European energy data base. About 225 transformation processes distributed over 17 subsystems characterised for six time periods up till 2020 for all EC countries are involved. The management of the data base is performed by an interactive software and this data base is designed for use in simulation studies and for linear programming optimisation with various objective functions. The model has been used in a parallel case study to explore substitution possibilities between an investment policy reducing the primary energy imports and one where these investments are restrained at the cost of having to import more primary energy. Results are shown and briefly discussed. Finally the relationship of this EFOM 12C model with the other EC models developed in the same research subprogram is outlined.     

基于多属性逆向拍卖的节能服务公司选择研究

合同能源管理是一种新型的节能机制,节能服务需求方与节能服务公司通过合作共享收益。合同能源管理实施的一个难点是节能服务公司(ESCO)的选择,然而,相关研究尚不充分。本文以政府为节能服务需求方,基于多属性逆向拍卖模型研究了ESCO选择问题。ESCO的投标集由三个属性决定,即节能量、项目完成期以及节能收益分享比例。本文通过非合作博弈研究政府和多ESCO间的逆向拍卖行为,将利润分享比例作为能源节省量与项目提前期的函数,我们推导出各ESCO的最优投标策略;在此基础上,每一个ESCO可以通过自身的技术与能力来决定投标策略;于是,在不忽视利润分享的前提下,政府可以依据能源节省量与项目提起期来挑选最优的ESCO。这种ESCO选择机制回避了节能收益分配的谈判,限制了ESCO间的恶意竞争,从而提高了整个合同能源管理过程的运作效率。仿真研究显示,ESCO数量的增加会降低各方的收益,于是,政府有必要限制参与逆向拍卖的ESCO数量。     

执行时间视角下的可再生能源发电项目激励政策优化研究

为实现可持续发展并降低温室气体排放,中国需大力发展可再生能源,而激励政策对可再生能源发展具有重要推动作用。鉴于此,本文采用实物期权方法评价了中国可再生能源发电项目激励政策的实施效果：首先分析了可再生能源项目的经济性,提出模型假设,接着构建并求解实物期权模型。为更直观地评价激励政策效果,本文利用最优执行条件求解项目预期执行时间和不同技术水平下的激励政策最优值。最后,以光伏发电项目为例进行实证分析。研究表明：①目前,中国光伏产业还难以独立发展,仍需国家政策的支持,但现行或曾实施的光伏激励政策存在超额激励现象。②随着技术水平的提高,为鼓励投资者及时投资,政府需提高激励力度。③从政府支出、政策效果和技术影响三个角度综合分析,单项激励政策中上网电价政策效果最佳,但政府支出较高;价格补贴政策效果偏弱,但政府支出较低;与其他两项政策相比,成本补偿政策效果较差。     

How smart cities transform operations models: a new research agenda for operations management in the digital economy

Abstract

The notion of smart cities is growing in prominence in the digital economy. The integration of urban infrastructures with information and communication technologies enables the development of new operations models. Digitised infrastructures offer opportunities for public and private organisations to design and deliver more customer-centric products or services, particularly for those that require geographical proximity with consumers in the online to offline (O2O) context. A framework is developed and used to analyse three case examples. These cases illustrate the emergence of new operations models and, demonstrate how smart cities are redefining the characteristics of operations models around their scalability, analytical output and connectivity. We also explore the feasibility, vulnerability and acceptability of each new operation. This paper contributes to our understanding of how smart cities can potentially transform operational models, and sets out a research agenda for operations management in smart cities in the digital economy.     

Energy and the environment—A Delphi forecast

The author is currently an Assistant Professor of Geography at the University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada. In the long range forecasting project ‘Energy and the Environment’, discussed in this article (conducted in 1970|1971 at the Pennsylvania State University), the Delphi method was employed to evaluate potential breakthroughs in energy technologies and environmental protection, management and planning innovations during the next 50 years. The priorities for energy—environmental problems, the growth of the traditional energy technologies and the probabilities of environmental ‘episodes’ in the 1970's were additional topics in the Delphi study.     

Energy forecasting

A selective and critical review of the state of the art in Energy Forecasting as perceived in assessing future interactions between fuel and feedstock availability for the chemical industry. Models are required of Energy supply and demand and their interaction through the energy market which is subject to national and international policies and conflict and to environmental restrictions and legislation. Significant advances have been made in modelling supply but neither an economic nor a technological approach alone is adequate for modelling demand. In particular there is lack of an adequate model of the industrial sector that reflects the diversity of the production function and adequately incorporates the relationship between technological change, capital investment and energy usage. In the UK the structure of industrial models is over constrained by the aggregation-structure of the national energy statistics. The economic and political forces required to bring about major changes in the capital infra structure are often ignored. There is need to establish logical lower practical limits to energy usage, to develop a system logic structure that provides transfer parameters between various levels and type of aggregation, to develop models which allow probability distributing of variables to be included and to model more effectively the interactions across the boundaries of economics, social and political science, physics, chemistry and mathematics.     

Planning for electricity generation in India

A country's economy and its energy base have a complex yet strong relationship. As a result the provisioning of an increasing quanta of energy is a vital pre-requisite for the economic growth of a country. With certain exceptions it has been found from a study of the per capita electric energy generation and per capita income that between 0·7 and 2 units of electric energy are required for generation of one unit of income. The exact relationship will vary from country to country depending on the particular energy-mix, the extent of industrialization and the energy efficiency of the economy. In the case of India, with the increasing contribution being made by the manufacturing, mining, transportation and communication sectors to the gross national product, the linkage between energy consumption and the deflated GNP are specific and strong. This paper outlines the methodology by which the relationship has been modelled and a forecast made of the energy demand.