Number and mean age of acceptors and users as related to programme duration

Abstract A decline in annual acceptances in a contraceptive programme is open to multiple interpretation. The decline may reflect an adverse change of attitudes and therefore a lowered disposition to accept the method among couples of the population generally. Alternatively, if the population has an irregular age distribution, the decline may mean only that the numbers of couples of prime contraceptive age have temporarily dropped. Thirdly, if the rate of previous acceptance has been high, the main cause of a slackening in new acceptances may simply be that previous acceptances have partially depleted the pool of eligible couples. Fewer eligible couples are left than previously as a consequence of past acceptance, removing couples interested in contraception faster than the family-building process can create new ones.     

The Role of Housing Space in Determining Freedom and Flourishing in Older People

This paper takes as its central thesis Martha Nussbaum’s normative proposition that social arrangements should be evaluated primarily according to the extent of freedom people have to promote or achieve functionings they value. Using this as a lens the paper explores the housing circumstances of older people in the UK. The paper makes three points. Firstly, given that people use their homes to structure and manage their lives, the design, quality and standard of their home is therefore a critical factor in determining their “doings and beings” [Sen: 1992, Inequality Re-examined (Clarendon Press, Oxford) p. 40]. Since older people are more likely to spend greater time within the home through lower income, lessening mobility or loss of companions, this may be of greater significance to them than other age groups. Secondly the paper argues that the design of “specialist” dwellings for older people where there is a shifting balance between housing and care has played a part in shaping the thinking about the position and status of older people as well as providing a material context in which older people live [Laws: 1994, Environment and Planning A 26: pp. 1787–1802]. This paper suggests that this context may alter or deny many aspects of life that may be meaningful to individuals and therefore may inhibit rather than promote human flourishing. The paper draws mainly on a small qualitative study in which older people spoke of their home and its meaning. Quotations from this work are given in italics.     

The Effect of Income on General Life Satisfaction and Dissatisfaction

Increasing evidence from the empirical economic and psychological literature suggests that positive and negative well-being are more than opposite ends of the same phenomenon. Two separate measures of the dependent variable may therefore be needed when analyzing the determinants of subjective well-being. We investigate asymmetries in the effect of income on subjective well-being with a single-item measure of general life satisfaction. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel 1984–2004, and a flexible multiple-index ordered probit panel data model with varying thresholds, we find that income has only a minor effect on high satisfaction but significantly reduces dissatisfaction.     

Religiously unaffiliated Canadians: Sex,age, and regional variations

Canada has been viewed traditionally as a preponderantly Christian country, with persons who are not affiliated with religion perceived as a deviant minority. Lack of affiliation with organized religion may be operationalized in a number of ways. In Canada in 1985, of all persons over the age of 15, about one in ten reported no religion. An additional 20% may be considered to be unaffiliated, in that they report they never attend church; and an additional 10% report that they go to church less than once a year. Depending upon the indicator used, therefore, nearly one in four Canadians may be considered to be religiously unaffiliated.Data from the 1985 General Social Survey (N=11110) are analyzed by sex, age and region. Being unaffiliated with organized religion is consistently more common among men than among women. The highest proportions of unaffiliated persons occur within the 25–34 year age group, with the lowest generally occuring in the 55–64 age group. The Atlantic provinces contain the lowest proportions of unaffiliated persons. Proportions increase westward to reach a high in British Columbia, where the percentage of non-affiliates is about twice the national average. Implications of the incidence of religious non-affiliation are discussed with reference to future research.     

Re-evaluating gender differences in self-rated health: The importance of cohort

Research examining gender differences in self-rated health (SRH) has typically not distinguished between age and cohort-related changes in the health of men and women over time. Using longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this study finds gender diffegrences in SRH may actually be an artifact of cohort. Prior to examining health across cohorts, women reported worse health than men. With the introduction of cohort to the models, no gender difference was found except in the earliest cohort (born 1924–1933). Historical context is therefore critical to understanding the health trajectories of women and men, which are not uniform across cohorts.     

The estimation and simulation of variable developmental period, with application to the mosquitoAedes aegypti (L.)

Summary The variability of stage developmental period may be a seminal feature of some insect populations and therefore of importance in management studies. A transfer function technique is described for estimating the frequency distribution of developmental period and simulating the subsequent population dynamics. The technique relates recruitment time series of consecutive stages by an age-specific developmental success function. Approximate statistics, such as the mean, median or mode developmental period, may be determined and the effect of different temperature or density regimes compared.     

Plague mortality rates by age and sex in the parish of St. Botolph's without Bishopsgate, London, 1603

Abstract The Bills of Mortality for London were instituted at least as early as 1528 but only a few figures survive before the extant annual series that begins in 1603. Ages at death, even in broad groups of ages, are not generally available until 1728, which is more than 50 years too late to give us any inkling of the ages, if any, at which people were specially susceptible to plague. There are reports, it is true, that suggest that children suffered from plague more severely than adults, at least on certain occasions (as in 1361 or 1418 for example), but nothing more precise. The legend of the Pied Piper of Hamelin may be a folk-memory of a plague (possibly in 1284) that killed mainly the children of the town, for the connection between infestation of rats and the loss of children suggests some kind of plague outbreak. Pollitzer concludes that no particular age group is specially liable to plague, and attributes all differences observed to different risks of exposure. The determinants of the severity of an outbreak would therefore be the environmental details and social customs.     

Plague mortality rates by age and sex in the parish of St. Botolph's without Bishopsgate,London, 1603

The Bills of Mortality for London were instituted at least as early as 1528 but only a few figures survive before the extant annual series that begins in 1603. Ages at death, even in broad groups of ages, are not generally available until 1728, which is more than 50 years too late to give us any inkling of the ages, if any, at which people were specially susceptible to plague. There are reports, it is true, that suggest that children suffered from plague more severely than adults, at least on certain occasions (as in 1361 or 1418 for example), but nothing more precise. The legend of the Pied Piper of Hamelin may be a folk-memory of a plague (possibly in 1284) that killed mainly the children of the town, for the connection between infestation of rats and the loss of children suggests some kind of plague outbreak. Pollitzer concludes that no particular age group is specially liable to plague, and attributes all differences observed to different risks of exposure. The determinants of the severity of an outbreak would therefore be the environmental details and social customs.     

Conducive Characteristics or Anti-Racist Context? Decomposing the Reasons for Veterans’ High Likelihood of Interracial Marriage

Over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, veterans have been more likely to enter into race/ethnic intermarriages than non-veterans. Theories of race/ethnic intermarriage variously point to how minority race/ethnicity, race/ethnically diverse social settings, progressive racial attitudes, and high socioeconomic status increase individuals’ likelihood of intermarrying. Veterans’ unique racial and socioeconomic characteristics may contribute to their greater likelihood of intermarrying relative to non-veterans: larger percentages of veterans than non-veterans are members of racial and ethnic minority groups, while military service increases individual service members’ long-term economic and educational prospects. At the same time, veterans share in common their exposure to the unique military environment, which may increase their likelihood of intermarriage by diversifying their social circles, and subjecting their attitudes and behavior to group norms that are more explicitly egalitarian than those of society at large. The present study considers these two possible explanations for veterans’ greater likelihood of intermarriage. We use data on seven cohorts of men over six decades in the Current Population Survey, representing a total of 1,456,742 observations, to decompose the difference in likelihood of racial intermarriage between veterans and non-veterans among married men aged 18–65. We find that across cohorts and decades, veterans’ greater likelihood of intermarrying is not fully explained by their race/ethnic and socioeconomic composition. We argue that veterans’ greater likelihood of intermarrying may therefore be driven by their exposure to the military environment.     

Childbearing and Women's Survival: New Evidence from Rural Bangladesh

Effects of childbearing on women's mortality and the implications of family planning programs in reducing these effects are examined in a 20‐year prospective study of more than 2,000 women in Matlab, Bangladesh. Maternal mortality is defined as a death occurring in the six weeks after childbirth. But childbearing may affect women's survival beyond this brief period. Additional hypotheses considered relate to 1) cumulative exposure to childbearing, whether measured by parity or pace of childbearing, 2) age at first birth, and 3) effects beyond the reproductive ages. The results offer no support to cumulative exposure hypotheses, showing no link between parity or pace of childbearing and mortality risk. Instead, we identify an extended period of heightened mortality risk associated with each birth—the year of the birth and the two subsequent years. Family planning programs, by reducing the number of children and therefore a woman's exposure to extended maternal mortality risk, potentially increase survival. Research is needed to identify and address the specific causes of extended maternal mortality risk so that appropriate ameliorative programs may be developed.     

Gender as a Moderator of the Relation Among Social Support Functions and Life Satisfaction in Older Malaysians

The aim of this study was to examine the moderating role of gender on relations among social support functions and life satisfaction in older Malaysians. The study sample was 1,800 older residents in a community; all were at least 60 years old. This study was a cross-sectional and corelational survey, and the data were collected by multistage stratified sampling. This study revealed that fewer social support functions, and therefore less life satisfaction, were available for females than for males. The results of moderated regression analyses demonstrated that gender interacted only on the relationship between positive social interaction support and tangible support with life satisfaction. Specifically, at a high tangible support level, females had lower life satisfaction when compared to a low tangible support level. There may be a need for new programs and services to provide other aspects of social support to older female adults to improve and maintain life satisfaction in later life.     

Cognitive skills,non-cognitive skills,and family background: evidence from sibling correlations

This paper estimates sibling correlations in cognitive and non-cognitive skills to evaluate the importance of family background for skill formation. Based on a large representative German dataset including IQ test scores and measures of non-cognitive skills, a restricted maximum likelihood model indicates a strong relationship between family background and skill formation. Sibling correlations in non-cognitive skills range from 0.22 to 0.46; therefore, at least one-fifth of the variance in these skills results from shared sibling-related factors. Sibling correlations in cognitive skills are higher than 0.50; therefore, more than half of the inequality in cognition can be explained by shared family background. Comparing these findings with those in the intergenerational skill transmission literature suggests that intergenerational correlations capture only part of the influence of family on children’s cognitive and non-cognitive skills, as confirmed by decomposition analyses and in line with previous findings on educational and income mobility.     

Milk siblingship,religious and secular: History,applications, and implications for practice

Problem or backgroundMilk kinship has religious and practical importance to Muslim families that is not well understood in Western cultures. The relationship occurs when an infant receives the milk of a woman other than the biological mother, creating familial relationships between the child and the woman whose milk is received. As milk siblings, her children and the recipient infant must never marry each other. Midwives in Western countries may encounter this in relation to human milk banking.AimThis review provides a context for respectfully assisting families with their decision making when they are offered banked milk.MethodsA database search was conducted and other publications were found manually.Review/findingsMilk siblingship can be religious or secular. In Islam similar prohibitions on marriage exist to those for blood relations. The mothers therefore have to be known to each other to prevent an inappropriate marriage. This relationship has been a barrier to use of human milk banks by Muslim families as milk from several mothers is usually pooled. Nevertheless, donor milk has been used for premature neonates in two Islamic countries, applying the religious requirements. Recent interpretations by some Islamic scholars permitting milk banking may be acceptable to some families, but others will heed other rulings.Conclusion/implicationsNICU staff may encounter difficulties in providing banked human milk to infants from Muslim families. Different rulings exist and Muslim families in Western countries come from a variety of traditions. Sensitivity is required to explore these issues with families.     

Consequences of Overnight Work Travel for Personal Social Relations: Problems,Promises, and Further Repercussions

Abstract

The article uses survey data from Sweden to examine social consequences of the mobile society. Key questions tackled include the implications of overnight work travel for the travellers’ ability to cultivate locally based and long‐distance friendships and the potential of travel to provide a source of new acquaintances. Data analysis indicates that widening social networks and increasing opportunities to achieve co‐presence with long‐distance friends, as brought by mobility, represent significant consequences of overnight work travel from an individual’s standpoint. This experience was salient even among those respondents who travelled no more than occasionally, while only the most frequent travellers perceived their travel as something impeding with their chances of sustaining local social ties. While the benefits deriving from travel thus seem incontestable, it may therefore not be possible either to entirely discard the prevalent notion of mobile lifestyles as a factor undermining social cohesion and promoting isolation and loneliness.     

The calculation of mortality-rates in the construction of life tables. A mathematical statistical study

Official life tables are frequently calculated for a period of years, rather than for an individual year, and the question arises, how annual rates are to be combined, in order to give an indication of the average mortality of the period. The author examines this problem, and uses methods based on the binomial probability distribution to suggest a solution of the ‘weighting’ problem. Taking as his starting-point the work of the Dutch statistician Van Pesch, he modifies the latter's theory so as to make it applicable to the case, where mortality rates have a secular downward trend, and reaches the conclusion that the ‘most probable values for the mortality rates are not obtained by applying the weighted mean, but by the application of a weighted mean and a correction term. The inclusion of the correction term means that, practically speaking, the results do not differ from those obtained by the application of the unweighted mean. The unweighted mean, which has the advantage of requiring less computational work, may therefore be given preference over the theoretically more accurate method.’     

Bayesian estimation of hispanic fertility hazards from survey and population data*

Previous studies have demonstrated both large gains in efficiency and reductions in bias by incorporating population information in regression estimation with sample survey data. These studies, however, assumed that the population values are exact. This assumption is relaxed here through a Bayesian extension of constrained maximum likelihood estimation applied to U.S. Hispanic fertility. The Bayesian approach allows for the use of both auxiliary survey data and expert judgment in making adjustments to published Hispanic Population fertility rates, and for the estimation of uncertainty about these adjustments. Compared with estimation from sample survey data only, the Bayesian constrained estimator results in much greater precision in the age pattern of the baseline fertility hazard and therefore of the predicted values for any given combination of socioeconomic variables. The use of population data in combination with survey data may therefore be highly advantageous even when the population data are known to have significant levels of nonsampling error.     

The verification of data in historical demography

Abstract In all scientific studies care must be taken to work on data which are correct and hence to make sure of the quality of the observations. In the field of historical demography there is need for extra care. The data were collected a long time ago in circumstances which were sometimes good, sometimes bad, but often little known. Statisticians are, moreover, on a priori grounds, rather inclined to be more suspicious of observations made in the past than of those which are made currently. Results relating to past populations must therefore be more rigorously established than any others if they are to be accepted. The verification of the data thus forms an integral part of the work of the historical demographer.     

Global hunger: The methodologies underlying the official estimates

This paper examines the methodologies employed by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the World Bank, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture to quantify the extent of global hunger during the past 50 years. The methodologies are shown to be less than perfect and to contain built-in biases favoring exaggeration. They have also proved amenable to manipulation by those with a political agenda to pursue. Other approaches to measuring world hunger should therefore be sought.     

Lifespan Disparity as an Additional Indicator for Evaluating Mortality Forecasts

Evaluating the predictive ability of mortality forecasts is important yet difficult. Death rates and mean lifespan are basic life table functions typically used to analyze to what extent the forecasts deviate from their realized values. Although these parameters are useful for specifying precisely how mortality has been forecasted, they cannot be used to assess whether the underlying mortality developments are plausible. We therefore propose that in addition to looking at average lifespan, we should examine whether the forecasted variability of the age at death is a plausible continuation of past trends. The validation of mortality forecasts for Italy, Japan, and Denmark demonstrates that their predictive performance can be evaluated more comprehensively by analyzing both the average lifespan and lifespan disparity—that is, by jointly analyzing the mean and the dispersion of mortality. Approaches that account for dynamic age shifts in survival improvements appear to perform better than others that enforce relatively invariant patterns. However, because forecasting approaches are designed to capture trends in average mortality, we argue that studying lifespan disparity may also help to improve the methodology and thus the predictive ability of mortality forecasts.     

On the relationship between population growth and economic development]

People are producers as well as consumers. If we look at only one side and ignore the other, we will be unable to reach impartial conclusions concerning the population problem. An obvious and close relationship exists between population growth and national economic development. If the two do not match each other, there will be numerous contradictory problems. For example, if the population grows too fast, serious social and economic problems will be created, such as a rise in the demand for living resources, an oversupply of the labor force, unemployment, and an insufficient availability of arable land, a shortage of public housing, more demand for health care and public transportation, and cultural and educational enterprises. In addition, a rapid population growth may cause more problems for the natural environment. As a result of overpopulation, the pressure on natural resources will be intensified and may therefore cause damage to the environment and create an ecological imbalance. All the above may bring very serious difficulties and obstacles to the advancement of socialism and modernized constructions. To avoid this, we must try to solve the population problem thoroughly and maintain a balanced relationship between the population growth and economic development.