Trends in Marital Instability in Italy in the 1980s

ABSTRACT The authors describe the most recent trends in separation and divorce in Italy using ISTAT data for the 1980–1991 period. The analysis shows a rising instability of marriage and thus a lessening of the gap between Italy and other western countries. The total divorce rate rose from three percent in the early 1980s to eight percent at the end of the 1980s. The analysis shows that the increasing breakdown of marriages is not due to “changes in timing” but to a real trend of ending marriages. Older couples have contributed more than younger couples to more unstable marriages over the past decade. Other variables continue today, as in the past, to be closely related to the instability of marriage in Italy.     

小样本协整系统的检验

采用Mon te Carlo 模拟方法, 给出了小样本容量下协整检验临界值的响应面( respon se su rface) 方程. 结果表明小样本协整检验的临界值不仅与样本容量有关, 还依赖于协整检验中 的滞后阶数. 最后对中国城镇居民的食品消费进行了小样本协整分析.     

Money in Search Equilibrium,in Competitive Equilibrium,and in Competitive Search Equilibrium

We compare three market structures for monetary economies: bargaining (search equilibrium); price taking (competitive equilibrium); and price posting (competitive search equilibrium). We also extend work on the microfoundations of money by allowing a general matching technology and entry. We study how equilibrium and the effects of policy depend on market structure. Under bargaining, trade and entry are both inefficient, and inflation implies first‐order welfare losses. Under price taking, the Friedman rule solves the first inefficiency but not the second, and inflation may actually improve welfare. Under posting, the Friedman rule yields the first best, and inflation implies second‐order welfare losses.     

网上创新竞争中解答者对发布者的信任问题研究

困扰网上创新竞争发展的一个重要因素是发布者作弊问题,它降低了解答者对发布者的信任,网络平台也采取各种方法监督作弊行为。为此,研究2个紧密关联的问题:①影响解答者对发布者信任的因素;②网络平台如何设定合适的监督水平。对问题①,基于信任理论构建研究模型,通过大样本问卷调研检验假设,结果表明:现有的信誉机制作用不显著,而网络平台本身的信誉和解答者满意度对信任有显著影响。实证研究结果凸显了网络平台服务水平的重要性,也是研究问题②的驱动因素。问题②的研究方法是博弈论,通过逆向求解,分析网络平台如何平衡成本和信誉来制定监督水平。最后,给出了主要结论以及未来的研究方向。     

Ambiguity in the Small and in the Large

This paper considers local and global multiple‐prior representations of ambiguity for preferences that are (i) monotonic, (ii) Bernoullian, that is, admit an affine utility representation when restricted to constant acts, and (iii) locally Lipschitz continuous. We do not require either certainty independence or uncertainty aversion. We show that the set of priors identified by Ghirardato, Maccheroni, and Marinacci's (2004) “unambiguous preference” relation can be characterized as a union of Clarke differentials. We then introduce a behavioral notion of “locally better deviation” at an act and show that it characterizes the Clarke differential of the preference representation at that act. These results suggest that the priors identified by these preference statements are directly related to (local) optimizing behavior.     

供应链的协作供应问题研究

当供应链某活动环节的物资需求量过大时, 一个供应点常常不能提供其全部所需物资. 因此, 实际应用中需要多个供应点共同参与. 针对供应链物资需求的特点, 提出了多点协作供 应的数学模型, 通过引入可行方案的定义, 给出了可行方案存在的判定定理, 以及可行方案的 构造方法. 然而一个可行方案可能包含太多的供应点(太多的供应点有时意味着较高的生产准 备费用) , 因此该方案可能并不实用. 考虑到方案可靠性及费用, 给出了求取优化方案的一个启 发式方法. 最后对模型的系统软件集成进行了简单探讨     

寡头市场产量与价格推测变差之间的关系

用于研究寡头垄断市场的推测变差方法,可以将各种寡头行为模型进行统一,本文在这个基础上,考察了产量推测和价格推测之间的关系。这种对应关系对于我们理解和指导实践,尤其是战略管理,都有一家的帮助。     

Public Trust in Government Concerning Tobacco Control in Japan

This study investigated public trust and its determinants concerning the government's control of tobacco in Japan. We focused on the two issues of government policies to ban smoking by minors and increase taxes on tobacco. We conducted a questionnaire survey in which respondents were asked to assess their trust in the government, the government's fairness and competency, and their value similarity with the government. One thousand three hundred and ninety-four respondents agreed to participate in the survey out of 2,600 randomly sampled adults over 20 years old from all over Japan. The results of multiple regression analysis confirmed that value similarity is the strongest predictor of public trust in the government. On the affirmatively supported issue of prohibiting smoking among minors, the results further indicated that assessment of competency is a stronger predictor than assessment of fairness. In contrast, assessment of fairness is a stronger predictor than assessment of competency for the still divided issue of increasing tobacco tax. Respondents who had low concern and had not formed clear opinions on the issues showed a weak link between assessment of value similarity and trust. Based on these findings, we considered the implications for the government's implementation of tobacco controls.     

Vom Controlling in der Gemeindeberatung zum Controlling in Kirchengemeinden

From controlling in parish advisory to controlling in church parishesThe author describes an internal controlling in a parish advisory organisation. He describes the various steps and the process of changing in the different committees involved, which lead to a changing in team advisory. From this he derives points of view to be considered when developing and implementing quality standards and controlling in the work with volunteers in parishes.     

公共管理领域监察合谋防范机制

公共管理领域监察合谋行为极为常见,对其的分析不应只简单地考虑双边共谋,而应将监察者合谋可能性以及合谋防范纳入多层次代理完全合约框架中予以考虑.通过一个“政府/监察者/企业”三层次代理模型表明,事前的低成本、高效率惩罚机制对合谋防范合约的效率非常重要.纯粹依赖于支付防合谋激励报酬的合约安排难有效率,而纯粹依赖惩罚防范合谋的合约安排也只在某些条件下有效率.模型亦可考察政府在生产的社会利益和社会代价之间的权衡行为.     

Healthy lower backs in the construction industry in Sweden

This corss-sectional study exmaines the relationship between healthy lower and psychosocial and physical factors in a random sample of 1773 male construction workers. Infoamtion on lower back status, lifestyle habits, stress, psychosomatic and psychological symptoms, psychosocizal demands and resoruces and physical workload were collected by means of a postal questionnaire. Measures of psycholocial and physical factors were based on factor analysis of the data. The criterion variable 'healthy lower back' (HLB)—no lifetime history of low back pain—proved to be valid compared with an interview and a physical examination. A total of 216 workers (12%) reported HLB. The prevalance rate decreased significantly with increasing age. The prevalence rate of HLB was 6% among workers reporting high stress levels. It was postively influenced when there was a balance between demands and resoruces. A low level of physical workload also increased the prevalence rate of HLB. When age, lifestyle and physical factors were kept constant in a multivariate analysis high scores on the discretions index and low scores on eh psychosomatic, psychological and stress indices cosntributed significantly to an increase prevalence rate of HLB.     

批评应把握好原则

领导者不仅担负着管理单位日常事务的责任,也担负着教育下属的任务。当下属在工作中出现错误时,给予适当的批评不仅是必要的,而且是重要的。批评作为领导者的一种执政活动方式,有其独特的内在规律性。     

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment of nontyphoidal Salmonella in ground pork in households in Chengdu,China

Foodborne disease caused by nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) is one of the most important food safety issues worldwide. The objectives of this study were to carry out microbial monitoring on the prevalence of NTS in commercial ground pork, investigate consumption patterns, and conduct a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) that considers cross-contamination to determine the risk caused by consuming ground pork and ready-to-eat food contaminated during food handling in the kitchen in Chengdu, China. The food pathway of ground pork was simplified and assumed to be several units according to the actual situation and our survey data, which were collected from our research or references and substituted into the QMRA model for simulation. The results showed that the prevalence of NTS in ground pork purchased in Chengdu was 69.64% (95% confidence interval [CI], 60.2–78.0), with a mean contamination level of −0.164 log CFU/g. After general cooking, NTS in ground pork could be eliminated (contamination level of zero). The estimated probability of causing salmonellosis per day was 9.43E-06 (95% CI: 8.82E-06–1.00E-05), while the estimated salmonellosis cases per million people per year were 3442 (95% CI: 3218–3666). According to the sensitivity analysis, the occurrence of cross-contamination was the most important factor affecting the probability of salmonellosis. To reduce the risk of salmonellosis caused by NTS through ground pork consumption, reasonable hygiene prevention and control measures should be adopted during food preparation to reduce cross-contamination. This study provides valuable information for household cooking and food safety management in China.     

Interference Phenomena in Temporal Evolution of Accident Probability in Workplaces

The aim of this article is to investigate some implications of complexity in workplace risk assessment. Workplace is examined as a complex system, and some of its attributes and aspects of its behavior are investigated. Failure probability of various workplace elements is examined as a time variable and interference phenomena of these probabilities are presented. Potential inefficiencies of common perceptions in applying probabilistic risk assessment models are also discussed. This investigation is conducted through mathematical modeling and qualitative examples of workplace situations. A mathematical model for simulation of the evolution of workplace accident probability in time is developed. Its findings are then attempted to be translated in real-world terms and discussed through simple examples of workplace situations. The mathematical model indicates that workplace is more likely to exhibit an unpredictable behavior. Such a behavior raises issues about usual key assumptions for the workplace, such as aggregation. Chaotic phenomena (nonlinear feedback mechanisms) are also investigated for in simple workplace systems cases. The main conclusions are (1) that time is an important variable for risk assessment, since behavior patterns are complex and unpredictable in the long term and (2) that workplace risk identification should take place in a holistic view (not by work post).     

Altruism in Networks

We provide the first analysis of altruism in networks. Agents are embedded in a fixed network and care about the well‐being of their network neighbors. Depending on incomes, they may provide financial support to their poorer friends. We study the Nash equilibria of the resulting game of transfers. We show that equilibria maximize a concave potential function. We establish existence, uniqueness of equilibrium consumption, and generic uniqueness of equilibrium transfers. We characterize the geometry of the network of transfers and highlight the key role played by transfer intermediaries. We then study comparative statics. A positive income shock to an individual benefits all. For small changes in incomes, agents in a component of the network of transfers act as if they were organized in an income‐pooling community. A decrease in income inequality or expansion of the altruism network may increase consumption inequality.     

不同权力结构下供应链企业社会责任激励

本文以单个供应商和单个零售商组成的两级供应链为对象,假设仅考虑供应商对产品安全方面的社会责任,研究了在供应商主导和零售商主导两种权力配置模式下,供应商履行社会责任程度的差异,以及如何在供应商和零售商间建立合理的契约以激励供应商社会责任的履行。研究发现,相对供应商主导,在零售商主导下供应商会更多地履行社会责任。引入收入共享的事后契约和成本共担的事前契约后,在供应商主导下,两种契约在一定条件下均能有效地激励供应商更好地履行社会责任,但在留存比例与分担比例相等的条件下,成本共担契约的激励效应更强。在零售商主导下,收入共享契约虽能激励供应商的社会责任履行,但因导致零售商的利润下降,故无法达成,而成本共担契约只有在分担足够大时才有激励效应。     

The Mapping of Contingencies in Mental Models Found in Organizations

From a cognitive perspective, mental models held by individuals are thought to guide interactions with objects or systems, including interpersonal interactions. Frameworks that categorize types of interactions in organizations suggest that they are guided by cultures and mental models that range from the egoistic to the cosmos-centric. From a behavioral perspective, what the cognitive approach calls mental models are sets of verbal rules. Therefore, we suggest that behavior analysis could be used to reconceptualize the mental model literature, generating new research questions and more rigorous experimentation. Cognitive constructs such as more expansive mental models may simply be a function of an individual’s or group’s increased attention to interlocking contingencies. Applying behavioral interventions such as acceptance and commitment therapy could be a way to examine the utility of a behavior analytic approach.     

Agent在电子商务环境下的供应链中的应用研究

在当前社会 ,电子商务的发展极其迅猛 ,其目标是辅助企业平滑其生产过程、管理过程和贸易过程 .而对于由多个相关的企业组成的供应链来说 ,也希望开发电子商务以获得供应链上的竞争优势 .本文着重讨论 Agent技术在电子商务中的应用 ,并从供应链的角度出发建立一个多 Agent系统 ,为供应链上的电子商务系统开发提供一种模式     

Organizational identity in acculturation in cross-border acquisitions: Implications for HRD practitioners in global M&A

The purpose of this study is to explore the role of organizational identity in acculturation, or organizational culture development, between the acquired and the acquiring organizations during a cross-border acquisition. The goal is to identify how long-term and short-term employees identify with the acquired organization, and the implications for acculturation for both groups. It is also to help identify implications for Human Resource Development Practitioners in this process. The long-term employees (more than seven years) of the acquired organization identified more strongly with the organization than the short-term (three or less years) employees in this study. The short-term employees seemed to welcome the acquiring Multinational Company (MNC), and readily adapted to their multicultural identity, while long-term employees were more concerned with maintaining the reputation of the original organization. The study provides Human Resource Development (HRD) practitioners with a better understanding of how and why organizational identity is an important aspect to consider in the acculturation process in cross-border mergers and acquisitions. It also provides insight into how to work with organizational identity with acquired organizations in integration and adaptation to the new organization by understanding the differences in organizational identity of long-term and short-term employees in India.     

Values in the workplace: Diversity in meaning and importance

This study, which was a replication and expansion of the Homant (1970) values study, proposed an alternative conceptualization to the study of value meaning and importance. Value meaning, value importance, and schema were explored through a repeated measures design. As predicted, there was more agreement across subjects of the meaning of nonvalue words than on the meaning of value words. Hypotheses regarding value ranking across sex types, as well as denotative versus connotative value meanings and value importance were not supported. Methodological issues and suggestions for future research are discussed.