Exploratory Analysis of Spatial Patterns in Brazil’s Fertility Transition

We use census data to investigate fertility change across more than 500 Brazilian microregions during 1970–2000, before and after controlling for local covariates. We use semivariograms to analyze spatial patterns, in order to investigate the importance of diffusion or social interaction in the spread of fertility transition across a map. Our analysis shows that spatial patterns in Brazilian fertility change are strongly related to spatial patterns in measurable local conditions such as electrification, child mortality, and female education. Differences in local conditions are particularly good at explaining spatial correlations at distances >500 km. At shorter distances, there remains some unexplained spatial correlation in fertility change that could be attributed to diffusion or social interaction.     

The effects of infant mortality on fertility revisited: new evidence from latin america

In this paper, we examine empirical evidence for a relation between infant and child mortality and fertility in Latin American countries from 1920 to 1990. We investigate the relation at several levels of aggregation and evaluate the extent to which evidence at one level is consistent with evidence at other levels. We first examine aggregate cross-country information over several decades, a type of data typically used in past research on the topic. We also examine yearly series of births, deaths, infant deaths, and socioeconomic indicators for selected countries to track the association between short-term fluctuations in fertility and infant mortality. Finally, we use micro-level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to assess the relation between fertility and child mortality from individual reproductive histories. The evidence we assemble from these different data sets is remarkably consistent and suggests small positive effects of infant mortality on fertility. These effects, however, may be too small to support the hypothesis that changes in child mortality are of more than modest importance in the process of fertility decline in Latin America in the late twentieth century.     

International Fertility Change: New Data and Insights From the Developmental Idealism Framework

Many scholars have offered structural and ideational explanations for the fertility changes occurring around the world. This paper focuses on the influence of developmental idealism—a schema or set of beliefs endorsing development, fertility change, and causal connections between development and fertility. Developmental idealism is argued to be an important force affecting both population policy and the fertility behavior of ordinary people. We present new survey data from ordinary people in six countries—Argentina, China, Egypt, Iran, Nepal, and the United States—about the extent to which developmental idealism is known and believed. We ask individuals if they believe that fertility and development are correlated, that development is a causal force in changing fertility levels, and that fertility declines enhance the standard of living and intergenerational relations. We also ask people about their expectations concerning future trends in fertility in their countries and whether they approve or disapprove of the trends they expect. The data show widespread linkage in the minds of ordinary people between fertility and development. Large fractions of people in these six settings believe that fertility and development are correlated, that development reduces fertility, and that declines in fertility foster development. Many also expect and endorse future declines in fertility.     

Fertility exposure analysis: A new method for assessing the contribution of proximate determinants to fertility differentials

Summary Several recent papers have dealt with the problem of assessing the impact of the proximate determinants on fertility. All these approaches rely on combining a series of separately estimated aggregate level indicators. This paper proposes an approach which uses individual-level data and thus permits regression analyses as well as analyses for sub-groups. In the course of development it became clear that there are several deficiencies and inconsistencies in the measurement and formation of indices proposed elsewhere, which are overcome. We illustrate our approach with data from the Dominican Republic. The approach used involves attributing exposure to one or more of several states, including pregnancy, lactational and non-lactational components of post-partum amenorrhoea, absence of sexual relations and contraception. Key elements are efficacies of contraception and components of post-partum infecundity and the treatment of overlaps through an explicit hierarchy. We treat both unconditional (or additive) and conditional analyses. Intriguing findings on the age-specific pattern of fertility control emerge. Major advantages of regression analysis, such as simultaneous treatment of several variables and estimation of sampling variation are stressed.     

Understanding stalling demographic transition in high-fertility countries: a case study of Guatemala

The debate surrounding the use of period, cohort, and tempo-adjusted measures has framed most of the recent studies evaluating the utility of macro-level fertility indicators. Period measures are susceptible to distortions, due to birth timing changes, but there is currently no universally accepted adjustment technique. Recent comparative analyses have offered some insights but only as applied to the low-fertility developed world setting. The utility of different types of measures in the high fertility context is unclear. Furthermore, regional variation in the pace of fertility transition is characteristic of many less developed countries and is rarely incorporated into macro-level analyses. The purpose of this analysis is to evaluate macro-fertility indicators at the regional and national levels in a high-fertility country, Guatemala, using the four most recent survey data sets. The results support the use of macro-level period indicators and adjusted period indicators of fertility in developing country contexts.     

Fertility,Education, and Development: Evidence from India

Fertility has declined significantly in many parts of India since the early 1980s. This article examines the determinants of fertility levels and fertility decline, using data on Indian districts for 1981 and 1991. The authors find that women's education and child mortality are the most important factors explaining fertility differences across the country and over time. Low levels of son preference also contribute to lower fertility. By contrast, general indicators of modernization and development such as urbanization, poverty reduction, and male literacy exhibit no significant association with fertility. En passant, the authors probe a subject of much confusion— the relation between fertility decline and gender bias.     

Local variations of fertility in taiwan

Abstract Taiwan has attracted a considerable amount of demographic interest in recent years because of a marked decline of fertility since 1956. In this paper the authors utilize data from the household registration system to analyse variations of fertility among 292 local administrative areas in 1961. The study reveals a strong negative correlation between total fertility and a series of indicators of social development and communication. Most of the variation in fertility is accounted for by differences in the fertility of married women aged over 30 and in the age at marriage. The decline of total fertility is accounted for primarily by a reduction of the marital fertility of women over 30. The adoption of family limitation was by no means confined to urban centres, but apparently originated there and spread rapidly to small towns and rural areas.     

Economic recession and fertility in the developed world

This article reviews research on the effects of economic recessions on fertility in the developed world. We study how economic downturns, as measured by various indicators, especially by declining GDP levels, falling consumer confidence, and rising unemployment, were found to affect fertility. We also discuss particular mechanisms through which the recession may have influenced fertility behavior, including the effects of economic uncertainty, falling income, changes in the housing market, and rising enrollment in higher education, and also factors that influence fertility indirectly such as declining marriage rates. Most studies find that fertility tends to be pro-cyclical and often rises and declines with the ups and downs of the business cycle. Usually, these aggregate effects are relatively small (typically, a few percentage points) and of short durations; in addition they often influence especially the timing of childbearing and in most cases do not leave an imprint on cohort fertility levels. Therefore, major long-term fertility shifts often continue seemingly uninterrupted during the recession—including the fertility declines before and during the Great Depression of the 1930s and before and during the oil shock crises of the 1970s. Changes in the opportunity costs of childbearing and fertility behavior during economic downturn vary by sex, age, social status, and number of children; childless young adults are usually most affected. Furthermore, various policies and institutions may modify or even reverse the relationship between recessions and fertility. The first evidence pertaining to the recent recession falls in line with these findings. In most countries, the recession has brought a decline in the number of births and fertility rates, often marking a sharp halt to the previous decade of rising fertility rates.     

生育进度效应调整指标研究的新进展

随着经济和社会的不断发展,生育推迟现象在全世界范围内日益普遍。由于生育推迟所产生的进度效应会对生育水平造成影响,因此,如何测度生育进度效应便成了人口学界研究的重要内容。自Bongaarts和Feeney的去进度效应总和生育率提出以来,各种新的改进方法与指标不断出现。本文对生育进度效应调整指标的新进展及具体指标进行梳理与比较。从时期角度出发,主要包括方差效应调整后的TFR、PATFR*、调整后的TFRSUV_N和ITFR四种指标;从队列角度出发,主要包括TFRp*、TFR†和ACF三种指标,这些指标有各自的优缺点。研究发现:首先,由于不同去进度效应改进指标的假设、适用条件、研究角度、改进方向都不同,很难有一套数据同时适用于多种去进度方法,因此,生育进度效应的诸多改进指标并没有哪个指标“更好”,只有“更合适”;其次,绝对的去进度效应只能停留在理论层面,而实际上却很难做到,种种去进度方法都只是一种“相对的去”,而不是“绝对的去”。过去我们所熟悉的进度效应是生育推迟,而目前世界范围内生育推迟速度开始逐渐放缓,未来我们甚至不能排除生育推迟在某个时期或某些区域会发生逆转,届时可能会出现与目前影响方向相反的进度效应,这可能是下一步关于生育进度效应研究应该注意的新方向。     

Effects of population policy and economic reform on the trend in fertility in Guangdong province,China, 1975–2005

An analysis of data mainly from China's 1990 and 2000 censuses and 2005 mini-census shows how fertility decline between 1975 and 2005 in the province of Guangdong has been influenced by both fertility policy and economic and social development. Guangdong's development since 1975 has been very rapid and has attracted huge numbers of migrants from other provinces. The analysis of the province's fertility trend from 1975 shows clearly the influence of fertility policy on the trend. The analysis also shows that economic development has brought about large changes in population composition by urban/rural residence, education, occupation, and migration status, which, together with large fertility differentials by these characteristics, have contributed substantially to Guangdong's fertility decline, in large part through changes in proportions currently married.     

Mapping the Timing,Pace, and Scale of the Fertility Transition in Brazil

Between 1960 and 2000, fertility fell sharply in Brazil, but this transition was unevenly distributed in space and time. Using Bayesian spatial statistical methods and microdata from five censuses, we develop and apply a procedure for fitting logistic curves to the fertility transitions in more than 500 small regions of Brazil over this 40‐year period. Doing so enables us to map the main features of the Brazilian fertility transition in considerable detail. We detect early declines in some regions of the country and document large differences between early and late transitions in regard to both the initial level of fertility and the speed of the transition. We also use our results to test hypotheses regarding changes in the level of development at the onset of the fertility transition and identify a temporary stall in the Brazilian transition that occurred in the late 1990s. A web site with project details is at http://schmert.net/BayesLogistic .     

经济增长、生育政策与生育率——基于跨国面板数据的实证研究

文章基于不同发展水平、采取不同生育政策分布在不同地区的十个国家1970—2009年的面板数据对经济增长、生育政策与生育率之间的关系进行实证分析,对近年来部分学者提出的经济增长与生育率之间的U形关系,采取选择不同样本、加入政策变量和其他与生育率相关的重要经济指标如妇女的教育程度、城镇化率、工业化率等进行再检验,结果支持该假说,经济增长在经济发展程度整体较低的阶段与生育率呈现较高的负相关,但当经济增长达到一定程度时,收入效应取代替代效应对生育率起主要推动作用,如果再辅之以相关的激励政策和措施,生育率会出现轻微的反弹。因此,对于已采取生育控制政策的国家,可以结合经济社会发展指标权衡利弊,适时调整政策。     

对新型生育文化效应的实证分析

新型生育文化是一种与传统生育文化既有联系又有根本区别的现代生育文化 ,它的效应的产生和发挥对人口与社会经济发展具有十分突出的意义。本文对我国新型生育文化效应发挥情况进行了初步的实证研究 ,主要涉及到新型生育文化效应的指标设置、运用、问卷调查分析以及促进效应有效发挥的模式特征。     

China's Below‐Replacement Fertility: Government Policy or Socioeconomic Development?

The article challenges the notion that below-replacement fertility and its local variation in China are primarily attributable to the government's birth planning policy. Data from the 2000 census and provincial statistical yearbooks are used to compare fertility in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, two of the most developed provinces in China, to examine the relationship between socioeconomic development and low fertility. The article demonstrates that although low fertility in China was achieved under the government's restrictive one-child policy, structural changes brought about by socioeconomic development and ideational shifts accompanying the new wave of globalization played a key role in China's fertility reduction.     

Reply to the note by Frejka and Sardon on our paper ‘Patterns of low and lowest-low fertility in Europe’ and an erratum

The relation between socio-economic development and fertility is analysed for the Arab populations of Israel and the territories administered by Israel (i.e. the West Bank and the Gaza Strip). Retrospective survey statistics are used to reconstruct the fertility patterns of currently married Arab women, along with a variety of census information. Fertility responses to socio-economic changes are traced out in detail for the period of the British Mandate, the first 20 years of statehood 1948–67, and the contemporary post-1967 period. The figures show that both Christian and Moslem Arab populations experienced similar high levels of fertility up to the late 1920s. Subsequently, there has been a negative relation between socio-economic development and fertility. In terms of levels of development and fertility decline the sub-populations are ranked in the following order: Israeli urban Christians; Israeli urban Moslems; Israeli rural Christians; Israeli rural Moslems; Moslems in the Administered Territories. The analysis suggests that the timing and rate of fertility reduction are related to the character of specific demographic, economic, and political changes that generate conflicts at the family level.     

Medicaid Expansions and Fertility in the United States

Beginning in the mid-1980s and extending through the early to mid-1990s, a substantial number of women and children in the United States gained eligibility for Medicaid through a series of income-based expansions. Using natality data from the National Center for Health Statistics, we estimate fertility responses to these eligibility expansions. We follow Currie and Gruber (2001) and measure changes in state Medicaid-eligibility policy by simulating the fraction of a standard population that would qualify for benefits in different states and different time periods. From 1985 to 1996, the fraction of women aged 15–44 who were eligible for Medicaid coverage for a pregnancy increased more than 20 percentage points. When we use a state and year fixed-effects model with a limited set of covariates, our estimates indicate that fertility increases in response to Medicaid expansions. However, after we include fixed effects for demographic characteristics, the estimated relationship diminishes substantially in size and is no longer statistically significant. We conclude that there is no robust relationship between Medicaid expansions and fertility.     

The End of the Fertility Transition in the Developed World

By the late 1990s the average period total fertility rate in the developed world had declined to 1.6, a level substantially lower than projected in the 1970s and 1980s. This article examines recent trends and patterns in fertility in the developed world with particular emphasis on the effects and implications of changes in the timing of childbearing. The main objective is to demonstrate that while fertility in these countries is indeed low, women's childbearing levels are not as low as period measures such as the total fertility rate suggest. To obtain a full understanding of the various dimensions of fertility change. several indicators are examined, including period and cohort fertility by birth order and childbearing preferences. An analysis of these indicators demonstrates that period fertility measures in many developed countries are temporarily depressed by a rise in the mean age at childbearing. The distortion of the TFR is as great as 0.4 births per woman in Italy and Spain. These effects have been present in many developed countries since the 1970s and could continue for years into the future. But tempo effects are temporary, and once the postponement of childbearing ends—as it eventually must—the corresponding fertility‐depressing effect stops, thus putting upward pressure on period fertility. Countries with very low fertility and substantial tempo effects may well experience rises in fertility in the near future if the timing of childbearing stabilizes. Even if this happens, however, it seems unlikely that fertility will rebound to the replacement level.     

Fertility trajectories and later-life depression among parents in England

We examine pathways between indicators of fertility tempo/quantum and depressive symptoms among parents aged 55+ with at least two children, using three waves of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Using standard regression approaches and path analysis within the structural equation framework, we also investigate whether fertility trajectories mediated the association between childhood disadvantage and later-life depression. Results provide limited support for direct influences of fertility trajectories on depression, but indicate indirect linkages for both women and men. Associations are mediated by partnership history, social support, wealth, later-life smoking, and functional limitation. Associations between childhood disadvantage and later-life depression are partially mediated by fertility stressors. Results confirm the influence of life course experiences on depression at older ages and demonstrate the interlinked role of family and other life course pathways on later-life well-being.     

Do Cross-National Differences in the Costs of Children Generate Cross-National Differences in Fertility Rates?

Parity-specific probabilities of having a next birth are estimated from national fertility data and are compared with nation-specific costs of having children as measured by time-budget data, by attitude data from the International Social Survey Program, and by panel data on labor earnings and standard of living changes following a birth. We focus on five countries (the United States, the former West Germany, Denmark, Italy, and the United Kingdom), whose fertility rates span the observed fertility range in the contemporary industrialized world and whose social welfare and family policies span the conceptual space of standard welfare-state typologies. Definitive conclusions are difficult because of the multiple dimensions on which child costs can be measured, the possibility that child costs affect both the quantum and the tempo of fertility, the relatively small fertility differences across industrialized nations, and the inherent small-N problem resulting from nation-level comparisons. Empirical analysis, however, supports the assertion that institutionally driven child costs affect the fertility patterns of industrialized nations.     

The changing relationship between unemployment and total fertility

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether there has been a fundamental change in the relationship between economic conditions and fertility. We use panel data methods to study the short-term changes in total fertility and the unemployment rate in a range of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from 1957 to 2014. We find that although fertility was counter-cyclical before 1970, with good economic times being associated with lower fertility, since then it has become pro-cyclical, with good economic times being associated with higher fertility.