贫困地区劳动力迁移、农户收入与贫困的缓解——基于新疆农户面板数据的实证分析

本文基于新疆30个贫困县、3000个农户、2008-2010年的微观面板数据,在控制了家庭规模、劳动力数量等家庭特征变量和粮食播种面积等村庄特征变量的前提下．运用固定效应法与工具变量法分别考察了劳动力迁移规模、迁移方式与迁移区位对家庭收入的影响．并进一步分析了劳动力迁移对贫困的缓解效应。回归结果表明：劳动力迁移规模虽然对农户农业收入有负向影响．但显著提高了农户人均收入与利他性收入：自发性迁移与政府组织性迁移方式均能显著提高农户收入,且自发性迁移的作用更强;省内县外迁移对农户收入的提高最为显著,其次为县内乡外迁移．省外迁移不影响农户收入：劳动力迁移规模提高了中等收入农户的收入水平。但对贫困户的贫困无缓解效应．也不影响富裕户的收入水平。     

家庭教育支出决定因素分析--来自中国城镇住户调查数据的经验证据

利用北京、辽宁、浙江、广东、四川与陕西2002年和2009年的城镇住户调查数据对家庭教育支出行为的决定因素和家庭教育支出的影响机制进行了实证检验与扩展分析。结论表明；（1）2002年家庭教育总支出的收入弹性大于2009年的家庭教育总支出收入弹性，且2002年的收入弹性大于1；家庭教育支出行为与户主年龄呈现显著的“U”型关系，且女孩比男孩获得更多的家庭教育资源；（2）各分项教育支出中，培训费支出受家庭可支配收入的影响最大；（3）城市人口规模与家庭教育支出之间呈现正相关关系；（4）总体而言，妻子对家庭教育支出的影响显著大于丈夫的影响，这主要体现在受教育年限方面。     

The sectoral labor supply of married couples in Brazil: Testing the unitary model of household behavior

An assumption of the unitary model of household decision-making is that household members maximize one household utility function. This assumption implies that households pool their income and, therefore, the ownership of nonwage income has no effect on household demand. In this paper, this implication is tested by estimating multi-sector labor supply equations for men and women in Brazil. The results indicate that the unitary model is rejected in the informal and self-employment sectors for men and the formal and informal sectors for women; in these cases own nonwage income has a significantly negative effect on labor supply while spousal nonwage income has no significant effect. Received: 29 December 1997/Accepted: 9 December 1998     

农村劳动力流动对缓解贫困的实证分析

本文利用对甘肃省国家扶贫开发重点县六个样本村的调查资料。在总结贫困地区致贫基本原因的基础上,运用Probit模型,研究了劳动力流动及其相关因素对缓解农村贫困的作用。研究结果表明,家庭劳动力数量、外出劳动力数量、流动者年龄及受教育程度、流动时间的长短、流动的稳定性、流动区域等因素对缓解家庭贫困具有十分积极的作用,外出打工已成为农村缓解贫困的主要途径。     

大城市外来人口迁移行为影响因素分析

利用2008年四大城市的外来人口问卷调查资料,运用多层次Logit模型分析影响大城市外来人口迁移行为的个体因素和迁入地因素。研究发现,外来人口的迁移行为发生较大的变化,城城迁移所占比重的上升导致性别、婚姻状况以及户口类型等因素对迁移概率的影响并不显著,迁移更多地表现为以家庭为单位;由于外来人口在就业和工资收入上受到不同程度的歧视,加之迁入地产业结构调整升级,就业岗位的增加对外来人口的吸引力有所下降,并且其预期收入水平与城市居民平均收入水平相脱离;城市平均工资增长率的提高对非正规部门劳动力产生了挤出效应,减小了潜在迁移者的迁移概率。     

Social and Economic Indicators of Household Income in Turkey: Does Ethnicity Matter?

In Turkey, the GDP per capita of eastern regions, where the Kurdish population is dense, is significantly lower than that of the rest of the country. The aim of this paper is to provide a quantitative analysis to investigate the contribution of household characteristics and regional disparities on racial/ethnic inequalities in household income, particularly across Turks and Kurds. Based on the results of regression-based decomposition analyses, there exist significant income differences between Turks and Kurds. However, this difference significantly diminishes if the household head is working. It is also observed that the household income increases with education, while decreases with migration and being settled in economically disadvantaged regions. Results also indicate that differential returns to Turks and Kurds on observable characteristics are lower in higher income quintiles     

Understanding material deprivation: A comparative European analysis

In this paper, taking advantage of the inclusion of a special module on material deprivation in EU-SILC 2009, we provide a comparative analysis of patterns of deprivation. Our analysis identifies six relatively distinct dimensions of deprivation with generally satisfactory overall levels of reliability and mean levels of reliability across countries. Multi-level analysis based on 28 European countries reveals systematic variation in the importance of within and between country variation for a range of deprivation dimensions. The basic deprivation dimension is the sole dimension to display a graduated pattern of variation across countries. It also reveals the highest correlations with national and household income, the remaining deprivation dimensions and economic stress. It comes closest to capturing an underlying dimension of generalized deprivation that can provide the basis for a comparative European analysis of exclusion from customary standards of living. A multilevel analysis revealed that a range of household characteristics and household reference person socio-economic factors were related to basic deprivation and controlling for contextual differences in such factors allowed us to account for substantial proportions of both within and between country variance. The addition of macro-economic factors relating to average levels of disposable income and income inequality contributed relatively little further in the way of explanatory power. Further analysis revealed the existence of a set of significant interactions between micro socio-economic attributes and country level gross national disposable income per capita. The impact of socio-economic differentiation was significantly greater where average income levels were lower. Or, in other words, the impact of the latter was greater for more disadvantaged socio-economic groups. Our analysis supports the suggestion that an emphasis on the primary role of income inequality to the neglect of differences in absolute levels of income may be misleading in important respects.     

Development and International Migration: The Effect of Income on Regular and Irregular Migration Intentions to Europe

In recent years, the development-migration debate has re-gained popularity in policy circles, especially after the so-called “migration crisis” in Europe and the following approval of the European Agenda on Migration. Much of the empirical literature supports the idea that the relationship between international migration and incomes at origin follows hump-shaped patterns. A growing number of studies find that increasing economic development and financial resources in developing countries would allow a greater number of individuals to afford the costs of emigrating. However, this evidence heavily relies on measures of regular migration only. Using nationally representative data from 12 Middle East and North Africa countries, this study adopts a multinomial logit model to frame migration intentions, distinguishing between regular and irregular routes. The main finding is that the level of household income is associated negatively with the demand for irregular migration to Europe. Predictive margins clearly show that higher household incomes increase the probability of planning only regular migration, while decreasing that of considering also irregular migration. The policy implications are not negligible: improving economic conditions in countries of origin may be effective at deflecting migrants from irregular to regular routes.     

Different Reasons,Different Results: Implications of Migration by Gender and Family Status

Previous research on migration and gendered career outcomes centers on couples and rarely examines the reason for the move. The implicit assumption is usually that households migrate in response to job opportunities. Based on a two-year panel from the Current Population Survey, this article uses stated reasons for geographic mobility to compare earnings outcomes among job migrants, family migrants, and quality-of-life migrants by gender and family status. We further assess the impact of migration on couples’ internal household economy. The effects of job-related moves that we find are reduced substantially in the fixed-effects models, indicating strong selection effects. Married women who moved for family reasons experience significant and substantial earnings declines. Consistent with conventional models of migration, we find that household earnings and income and gender specialization increase following job migration. Married women who are secondary earners have increased odds of reducing their labor supply following migration for job or family reasons. However, we also find that migrating women who contributed as equals to the household economy before the move are no more likely than nonmigrant women to exit work or to work part-time. Equal breadwinner status may protect women from becoming tied movers.     

Labor Migration,Remittances and Economic Well-being of Households in the Philippines

Labor Migration has long been viewed as a strategy adopted by the household unit to allocate family resources rationally to increase the flows of income and to raise family standard of living. The research reported here examines the extent to which remittances sent by Filipino overseas workers increase the income and standard of living of households in the Philippines. Data for the analysis were obtained from a representative sample of 2,388 households drawn in 1999–2000 from four major “labor sending” areas in the Philippines. The analysis compares households with and without overseas workers to estimate the contribution of remittances to household income and to household standard of living (measured once by an ‘objective’ indicator and once by a ‘subjective’ assessment). The data reveal that due to remittances the income of households with overseas labor migrants is considerably higher than the income of households without overseas workers. The data also reveal that remittances are used mostly for consumption purposes (e.g. purchase of food, clothing, education, and goods) and that most of the difference in standard of living (whether measured on the ‘objective’ or the ‘subjective’ scale) between households with and without overseas workers are attributed to remittances. The implications of labor migration and the policy that encourages and supports labor migration for the Filipino society are evaluated and discussed.

农村转移劳动力价格扭曲的宏观因素研究

改革开放以来,农村剩余劳动力开始流向大城市,但是,城市管理制度仍然沿袭传统的二元户籍和二元劳动力市场制度,扭曲了农村转移劳动力价格,大量农业剩余劳动力通过被扭曲价格流入相关城市部门。本文通过收集1980年至2011年的数据并进行处理,构建了价格扭曲的宏观因素计量模型,运用VECM模型实证研究得出：农民实际人均收入是农村转移劳动力价格扭曲的首要因素;城镇居民实际工资是农村转移劳动力价格扭曲的次要因素;劳动力总量供给过剩对农村转移劳动力价格扭曲有重要影响。运用变系数半参数方法分析数据显示,工资扭曲对城镇部门收入的影响具有流变性。     

Heterogeneous climate effects on human migration in Indonesia

We examine the effect of anomalous temperatures, rainfall levels, and monsoon timing on migration outcomes in Indonesia. Using panel data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey and high-resolution climate data, we assess whether intra- and inter-province moves are used as a response to climatic shocks. We evaluate the relative importance of temperature, rainfall, and monsoon timing for migration. Only temperature and monsoon timing have significant effects, and these do not operate in the direction commonly assumed. Estimated effects vary according to individuals’ gender, membership in a farm household, and location. We also analyze climate effects on sources of household income, which highlights the multi-phasic nature of household responses. Results undermine narratives of a uniform global migratory response to climate change and highlight the heterogeneous use of migration as a response to such changes. By extending previous research on environmentally induced migration in Indonesia, we also highlight the sensitivity of estimates to alternative climate and migration measures.     

Erratum to: Heterogeneous climate effects on human migration in Indonesia

We examine the effect of anomalous temperatures, rainfall levels, and monsoon timing on migration outcomes in Indonesia. Using panel data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey and high-resolution climate data, we assess whether intra- and inter-province moves are used as a response to climatic shocks. We evaluate the relative importance of temperature, rainfall, and monsoon timing for migration. Temperature and monsoon timing have significant effects, and these do not operate in the direction commonly assumed. Estimated effects vary according to individuals’ gender, membership in a farm household, and location. We also analyze climate effects on sources of household income, which point to the multi-phasic nature of household responses. Results undermine narratives of a uniform global migratory response to climate change and highlight the heterogeneous use of migration as a response to such changes. By extending previous research on environmentally induced migration in Indonesia, we also highlight the sensitivity of estimates to alternative climate and migration measures.     

Seasonal migration of rural labor in India

The impact of seasonal migration has been overlooked by students of migration. A unique data set collected in Dungarpur – one of the less developed districts of India – allows us to closely examine both the determinants and impact of seasonal migration. Detailed information was gathered from all members of 624 households, thus enabling analyses at both individual and household levels. The findings indicate that seasonal migration among rural laborers is wide-spread. Rural households in India use migrant labor offered by their members to improve their well-being by both reducing the impacts of inferior conditions and by raising household's income levels. Migrant labor is a compensating mechanism used by households to reduce their disadvantageous position. Migrant households are characterized by lower education levels, lower levels of income from agriculture, and by an inferior geographical location. However, those households sending migrant labor are found to have higher income levels than those not sending migrant labor. Income from migrant labor accounts for almost 60% of total annual income of households sending at least one migrant laborer. Such findings are in accordance with explanations derived from the `new economics of migration'. We can thus learn that migration-related decisions should not evaluated only on the basis of utility maximization of individual migrants, but also on the basis of risk reducing by households.     

Fertility Decline and Increased Manifestation of Sex Bias in India

This paper argues that expectations - the process of evaluating the chances for future attainment of valued goals in the home community (stay decision) vs. alternative locations (move decision) - along with family norms about migration are major predictors of intention to move, which in turn is a proximate determinant of migration behaviour. Utilizing longitudinal data from the 1992 and 1994 waves of the Thailand National Migration Survey, logistic regression models show that a strikingly different set of expectations, household demographic indicators, and migrant capital factors were significant determinants of migration intentions for men and women; reflecting Thai gender roles. Migration intentions, in turn, predicted more permanent, but not temporary, survival strategy migration behaviour, while low household income predicted temporary but not more permanent migration behaviour. The measure of perceived family migration norms was a powerful determinant of migration behaviour, but the size of migrant networks was not a statistically significant determinant of either migration intentions or behaviour.     

Estimating intrahousehold allocation in a collective model with household production

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the intra-family distribution of income and the individual demand for leisure and household production from Swedish cross-sectional household data. As a basis for the analysis, we use a collective model where each individual is characterized by his or her own utility function and divides total time between leisure, household production and market work. For the purpose of comparison, we also estimate a version that is consistent with a more traditional model of labor supply, the unitary model. Received: 14 April 2000/Accepted: 12 January 2001     

Differences Between Household Income from Surveys and Registers and How These Affect the Poverty Headcount: Evidence from the Austrian SILC

We take advantage of the fact that for the Austrian SILC 2008–2011, two data sources are available in parallel for the same households: register-based and survey-based income data. Thus, we aim to explain which households tend to under- or over-report their household income by estimating multinomial logit and OLS models with covariates referring to the interview situation, employment status and socio-demographic household characteristics. Furthermore, we analyze source-specific differences in the distribution of household income and how these differences affect aggregate poverty indicators based on household income. The analysis reveals an increase in the cross-sectional poverty rates for 2008–2011 and the longitudinal poverty rate if register data rather than survey data are used. These changes in the poverty rate are mainly driven by differences in employment income rather than sampling weights and other income components. Regression results show a pattern of mean-reverting errors when comparing household income between the two data sources. Furthermore, differences between data sources for both under-reporting and over-reporting slightly decrease with the number of panel waves in which a household participated. Among the other variables analyzed that are related to the interview situation (mode, proxy, interview month), only the number of proxy interviews was (weakly) positively correlated with the difference between data sources, although this outcome was not robust over different model specifications.     

Circular migration, small-scale logging, and household livelihoods in Uganda

Little is known about the contribution of migrant logging to rural livelihoods in East Africa. In this paper, we analyze logging by circular migrants in land constrained and population dense southwestern Uganda. Drawing on a sample of 180 households, including both migrant and non-migrant households, we describe the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of migrant loggers, estimate the contribution of migrant logging to household income portfolios, test several hypotheses regarding why households decide to undertake this relatively risky activity, and explore the role of social networks as a determinant of higher incomes for migrant loggers. We find that household endowments of land, labor, and capital are different for migrant logger and comparison group households. Above all, labor endowments appear to be driving decisions to participate in logging. We find support for two migration hypotheses: higher expected incomes and wages at destination; and relative deprivation at origin. We find strong evidence that migrant logging reduces income inequality in the home community.     

Postcensal estimates of household income distributions

This article develops and evaluates a method for deriving postcensal estimates of household income distributions for counties. A modified lognormal probability curve is used as a model of income distribution. The function is closely related to the classical lognormal model, but it contains a nonlinear component in its derivation. Simulated postcensal estimates of household income distributions are compared with 1980 census data for the counties in California. The results indicate that the modified lognormal curve approximates observed income distributions well and produces reliable postcensal estimates for areas with a wide variety of median income levels and numbers of households.     

Relative deprivation and international migration oded stark

This article provides theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence that international migration decisions are influenced by relative as well as absolute income considerations. Potential gains in absolute income through migration are likely to play an important role in households' migration decisions, but international migration by household members who hold promise for success as labor migrants can also be an effective strategy to improve a household's income position relative to others in the household's reference group. The findings reported in this article provide empirical support for the hypothesis that relative deprivation plays a significant role in Mexico-to-U.S. migration decisions. The findings also suggest that this migration is an effective mechanism for achieving income gains in households that send migrants to the U.S. and that households wisely choose as migrants those of their members who are most likely to provide net income gains.