试探互斥事件与相互独立事件的区分方法

相互独立事件概率乘法公式P（A?B）=P（A）?P（B）随机试验中事件的概率计算何时使用互斥事件概率的加法公式,何时使用相互独立事件概率的乘法公式,常是初学这部分知识的人难以把握的问题,引起麻烦的根源主要是无法确定事件间的关系究竟属于互斥事件还是独立事件。     

制度系统演化是一个马尔科夫过程

文章把制度系统的演化过程看作是一个马尔科夫过程,提出"有限马尔科夫制度链"这一概念."有限马尔科夫制度链"的随机矩阵决定了制度系统演化的路径,可能是单向突变式的,也可能是单向渐进式的;可能是反复式的,锁定于某种状态或锁定于某种循环圈;可能出现分叉演化.在反复式演化和分叉式演化当中,有两个参数对于演化的路径和结局具有重要意义:"锁定--锁开比率"和"分支概率比率".     

MRP物料分解运算时的公式处理算法研究

在机械加工行业的MRP物料分解过程中，不可避免会遇到公式处理等复杂计算问题。以某电梯企业MRP系统为例，介绍了公式处理的需求背景及算法原理，并列举出解决此问题的部分关键Power Script脚本。     

非线性科学影响下的俄罗斯家庭关系心理学

非线性科学是以否定简单线性因果关系和决定论为特征的,强调随机概率性。在其影响下,俄罗斯家庭关系心理学对复杂多变的家庭心理关系作出了不同于以往的解释。其研究视角、理论主张和研究方式都深深烙上了非线性科学的特征。     

第八讲 社会因素对生育率变动的影响

社会因素对人口自然变动的影响应该包括两个方面,即对人口出生的影响和对人口死亡的影响。但由于篇幅有限,本讲只分析社会因素对人口出生的影响,介绍世界各国所采取的有利于调节生育率变动的社会政策措施。影响生育率变动的各种社会因素所谓人口出生率,一般是指一定时期内的出生人数同平均总人数之比。然而这只是出生率的简化公式,如果把这个公式具体化,则可变为一定时期内的出生人数同平均育龄妇女数之比(即育龄妇女的一般生育率)乘以该时期内的平均育龄妇女数同平均总人数之比     

信用的革命：区块链与社会信用建设创新探讨

智能时代的社会信用体系中存在着人格信用、契约信用与算法信用等多种形态,尤其是以区块链为技术基础的算法信用,代表着社会信用演变的趋势,预示着社会信用革命的到来。区块链本身所具有的属性,突显出其助力社会信用在场和降低社会信用风险与成本的重要价值,对于推动社会信用的创新建设具有重要意义。将区块链与社会信用建设进行耦合,实质上是通过政策推动,出台标准;需求导向,创新应用;制度引导,确保秩序;法律规范,禁止滥用等,构建一个以区块链为底层支撑技术的新型社会信用体系。     

马克思扩大再生产公式的图解法

基于马克思扩大再生产公式中具有的两个部类不变资本积累变量,提出马克思扩大再生产公式的图解法,可以直观、简便地获得扩大再生产公式的解,以把握怎样求解一般的扩大再生产问题,特别是可以直观地发现和认识马克思扩大再生产公式有解的充分必要条件。     

和（差）角公式、倍角公式和半角公式--高考复习的回顾与展望

和（差）角公式、倍角公式和半角公式都是高考的重点，要求能推导并掌握两角和（差）的正弦、余弦、正切。这部分公式多，要求考生掌握利用这些公式进行恒等变形的技巧，从而考查学生的逻辑推理能力、运算能力，又往往渗透考查函数和方程及等价转换的数学思想方法，题型多变，一般难度中等。近几年一直是高考的热点、重点，要注意培养学生对这部分知识的灵活掌握。     

区域文化对婚姻稳定性的影响:基于跨省流动人口的研究

本文利用2013—2015年我国跨省流动人口数据,从动态的视角考察了流入地文化和流出地文化对流动人口婚姻稳定性的影响。数据结果显示,高离婚率地区形成了一种强势的离婚文化,无论是从低离婚率地区流入到高离婚率地区,还是从高离婚率地区流入到低离婚率地区,曾在高离婚率地区生活过的跨省流动人口都会保持较高的离婚概率。离婚文化对个人行为的影响表现为继承效应和浸染效应：继承效应即人们迁移到一个新的文化环境中,原有的离婚文化会持续产生影响;浸染效应即人们迁移到一个新的区域,会受到新接触的离婚文化的影响。年轻人更容易受到新迁入地文化浸染效应的影响,而年龄较大的人更容易受到流出地文化继承效应的影响。在新环境中,男性更容易接受新的文化,而女性则更多地保留了原有文化特征。     

一般信任模式的跨部门差异及其中介机制: 基于2010年中国综合社会调查的研究

本文基于“市场”与“国家再分配”两种不同制度环境的讨论，利用中国综合社会调查2010年的数据，运用倾向值匹配方法处理潜在的选择性误差，考察了不同部门中个体的一般信任水平。结果显示，相比私有部门（外资企业和私营企业），在公共部门中工作的个体呈现了更高的一般信任水平。进一步的分析表明，政治参与水平和相对剥夺感作为中介于工作部门与一般信任水平之间的解释机制是显著的，在公共部门中工作的个体不仅在态度上对内在政治效能感有更高的认定，而且也能积极参与居委会社区的选举。这些特征极大提升了他们的一般信任水平。此外，公共部门中的个体在社会地位与经济地位上所持有的较低的相对剥夺感也有助于其建立更高的一般信任水平。     

Considering Improvisation: Play,Transitional Space,and Discovery

This article explores the concept of improvisation in the therapeutic setting as a complex construction when elaborated in the idiom of jazz music. A composite clinical case is offered that illustrates an impasse and how improvisational thinking offers a way forward. Improvisation has recently been conceptualized through the metaphor of theater improvisation, dance, and rhythm. The therapeutic hour is considered an improvisational dialogue with the main theme (melody) and counter melodies, and harmonic possibilities that underlie the rhythmic pulse of the hour. Improvisation requires a reflective/interpretive process that draws on patterns, structures, and experiences reformulated in the relational field of the participants. The client initiates the call and response pattern, from which improvisation emerges as a mutual process of discovery. A more relaxed, receptive, and reflective posture extends Winnicott’s 1971 notion of play to integrate classic understanding and relational interaction.     

Objective Tests versus Subjective tests

objective test has only one correct answer, while subjective test has a range of possible answers. Because of this feature, reliability will not be difficult to achieve in the marking of the objective item, while the marking of the subjective items is reliable. On the whole, a good test must contain both subjective and objective test items.     

Comments on the National College English Test

College English Test is an important national test for Chinese college students, this paper introduces the distribution of scores, time of examination, and analyses the four parts in CET ,such as listening comprehension, reading comprehension, integrated testing, and writing based on testing theories.     

Abstracts of theses: Smith College School for Social Work,July 1954

Abstract

Many clients relate in ways that elicit emotional responses in practitioners and may also feel pressure to intervene when appropriate action is not yet clear. Practitioners must develop sufficient self-awareness so their own reactions do not interfere with the work they do with clients. Educators exhort their students to be self-aware, but locating methods that foster the capacity can be difficult. Infant observation is an elegant training model that helps to develop self-awareness. The method described here makes use of regular observation, supportive small groups, and repeated detailed examination of what is seen in training both generalist and specialized practitioners. It has become a prototype for the observational study of several kinds of specific populations. Because it attends to people in their own environments and demonstrates a flexible, reflective, multi-modal manner of information-gathering, infant observation is particularly useful in the education of social work practitioners.     

India's Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Act: Assessing the quality of access and adequacy of benefits in MGNREGS public works

The extension of social protection to all has become a central policy objective, both nationally and internationally. A considerable number of middle‐ and low‐income countries have undertaken substantial efforts to extend social protection, while the international community reaffirmed its commitment to the extension of social protection through the adoption of the ILO Recommendation concerning National Floors of Social Protection, No. 202 (2012). This article reviews the legal provisions and the implementation of the Indian Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), legislated in 2005, and does so in the light of the more recent provisions of ILO Recommendation No. 202. Since its introduction ten years ago, MGNREGA has provided a source of income to rural workers, increased wage rates, achieved high female participation rates and created durable assets. India's local governance bodies, Panchayati Raj Institutions (PRI), have been empowered and involved in the processes of planning and monitoring. However, despite successes, there have been considerable shortcomings in implementation. This article highlights two central themes: first, the innovative policy framework of the Act, which brings together rights‐based entitlements, demand‐driven employment, and citizen‐centred monitoring. Second, it assesses the accessibility and adequacy of benefits in the implementation of MGNREGA. We conclude that MGNREGA offers potential for South‐South learning, both in terms of policy‐design and implementation.     

The gender gap in pensions in Latin America

Lower female lifetime labour market participation rates, greater interruptions during their working lives, and wage gaps contribute to create gender gaps in pensions at the time of retirement. The design of social security systems may reinforce or attenuate these gaps. This article provides new evidence on gender gaps in access to pensions and in pension income in four Southern Cone countries in Latin America and analyses their evolution between 2000 and 2013, showing significant improvements in both gaps, with differential patterns by countries. The decrease in the gender gap in pension income has been particularly significant in Argentina and Brazil. In both cases, the largest increases in pension values during the period correspond to the lowest income percentiles, where women are overrepresented. The application of redistributive policies in these countries, aimed at reducing poverty and inequality but not necessarily focused on gender equity, has had positive and probably unintended consequences in terms of reduction in gender gaps in pensions.     

From “Either‐Or” to “When and How”: A Context‐Dependent Model of Culture in Action

In this article, I outline a framework for the sociological study of culture that connects three intertwined elements of human culture (cultural motivations, resources, and meanings) and demonstrates the concrete contexts under which each most critically influences actions and their subsequent outcomes. In contrast to models that cast motivations, resources, and meanings as competing explanations of how culture affects action, I argue that these are fundamental constituent elements of culture that are inseparable, interdependent, and simultaneously operative. Which element provides the strongest link to action, and how this link operates, must be understood as a function of the actor's position within wider social contexts. I argue that on average motivations have the most discernable link to action within a social strata, cultural resources provide the strongest link across strata, and meanings have the greatest direct influence when codified and sanctioned. I then offer a reframing and synthesis that reintegrates previously “competing” theories of culture into a more holistic context‐dependent model of culture in action. Finally, I use evidence from prior empirical research, as well as new data from an ongoing ethnographic study of health behaviors among the aged, to show how various elements of culture are concretely linked to action in eight different social contexts. In doing so, I provide a roadmap for the transition out of the “either‐or” logic underlying much of cultural theory and reemphasize the importance of the classical sociological concern for “when” and “how” various aspects of culture influence action and outcomes in concrete social contexts.     

Is subsidiarity a conditio sine qua non for sustainability?

This paper argues that subsidiarity is a condicio sine qua non for sustainability. Through the complexity paradigm, the paper provides a historical reconstruction of both concepts to the end of elucidating their interdependence. The main thesis is that subsidiarity to sustainability is what self-organisation is to emergence. The paper ends with a sketch of future global governance structures based on a subsidiarity where cities take the lead on sustainability.     

Global employment and decent jobs, 2010–2030: The forces of demography and automation

Globally, an estimated 734 million jobs will be required between 2010 and 2030 to accommodate recent and ongoing demographic shifts, account for plausible changes in labour force participation rates, and achieve target unemployment rates of at or below 4 per cent for adults and at or below 8 per cent for youth. The facts that most new jobs will be required in countries where “decent” jobs are less prevalent and workers in many occupations are increasingly subject to risks of automation further compound the challenge of job creation, which is already quite sizable in historical perspective. Failure to create the jobs that are needed through 2030 would put currently operative social security systems under pressure and undermine efforts to guarantee the national social protection floors enshrined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).