梅普“二人转”

9月24日,在执政的统一俄罗斯党年会上,俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫发表讲话,提议普京作为该党候选人参加2012年总统选举。普京则回应,梅德韦杰夫届时应该担任总理一职。由于俄罗斯总统任期已从4年延长至6年,并可连任一次。这在很大程度上就意味着,不但俄罗斯未来6年的总统总理是谁已定,     

被民族主义需要的普京

正与其说是普京在竞选俄罗斯总统,不如说是俄罗斯人民在选择普京继续做他们的总统。俄罗斯骨子里的"帝国意识",一直在汹涌澎湃。2018年3月18日,没有任何悬念,普京当选俄罗斯第七届总统。从2000年3月当选总统到现在,包括短暂的4年梅德韦杰夫总统时期,实际上,普京已经实际掌握了这个国家的最高权力有18年了。18年来俄罗斯到底取得了怎样的     

试论科学的合法性

一个不具有合法性的科学算不上真正的科学。科学的合法性正在成为当代科学发展的一个重要问题。本文首先探讨了科学的“合法性”概念 ,指出科学规范就是科学之“法” ;其次从科学本身的发展 ,科学与哲学、科学与神学的冲突 ,科学家和科学共同体的行为等角度讨论了科学合法性的形成途径 ;第三 ,把科学合法性分为内在合法性和外在合法性 ,指出“建构科学理论所必须遵从的规范或原则”构成了科学理论的本质规定性 ;第四 ,从科学的内在与外在合法性探讨了科学合法性所发生的危机 ,特别指出政府或国家的合法性危机与文化危机也将导致科学的合法性危机 ;最后阐述了化解科学合法性危机的途径     

自由派对俄罗斯当前外交政策的批判

本文首先简单交代了自由主义意识形态在当前俄罗斯社会的影响,接着回顾了自苏联解体之后,自由主义在俄罗斯对外政策的各个时期所扮演的角色。具体地说,这一时期主要分成三个阶段,三个阶段对西方的态度不断趋冷。普京第一次当选总统标志着第三阶段的开始,尽管普京比叶利钦更反对自由主义,但当时的普京并没有采取与西方对抗的姿态。真正的对抗是从2014年开始的。2014年的乌克兰危机标志着俄罗斯与西方的外交关系进入一个新的阶段。围绕乌克兰危机和克里米亚问题,俄罗斯的自由派对普京主导下的俄罗斯外交政策多有批评。但是,这些批评并无新意,也根本站不住脚。激进自由派所能赢得的政治红利正不断减少。同时,鉴于俄罗斯国内的舆论转向和俄罗斯与西方关系的日益恶化,俄罗斯自由派对外交政策的影响力也在不断缩小。     

2002年的俄罗斯与独联体国家:发展道路大相径庭

目前 ,俄罗斯与独联体国家正处于转型时期 ,在 2 0 0 2年 ,这一形势逐渐明朗。在 1 991～ 1 999年叶利钦总统执政期间 ,俄罗斯的经济濒临崩溃 ,整个社会动荡不安。然而 ,自普京总统执政以来 ,俄罗斯经济呈现出逐渐好转的迹象。在外交政策方面 ,普京总统采取了与西方国家联手反对恐怖主义的战略 ,对美国在中亚地区和高加索地区的影响保持沉默。时至今日 ,俄罗斯已成为北大西洋公约组织的战略伙伴 ,而独联体的作用正逐渐减弱。普京总统曾反复强调 ,经济振兴和俄罗斯人民社会生活条件的改善是他的首要目标。目前 ,俄罗斯经济出现了某些积极的发…     

政治合法性危机与政治参与的相关性研究

政治合法性是政治权力能否在政治制度中实现有效管理的根本依据,政治合法性程度的高与低直接反应了公民对该政治体系的认同程度。在政治变迁与权力交替的过程中,不同国家终究会面临不同程度的政治合法性危机问题。合法性危机问题解决的好与坏一国政治系统能否健康发展,政治现代化进程的顺利与否以及政治发展的决定性因素。从技术上说,克服合法性危机的关键在于谋求支持。而在更基本的层面,则要确立宪政架构下的程序正当性,确保政府权力施用的社会公正性,确认国家共同体层次的广泛共识。作为近代公民实现权利、表达利益诉求的政治参与,是合法性危机问题的解决以及政治系统的健康发展的现实路径选择。     

强权治理、突破瓶颈、提高福祉——普京"富民强国"经济思想及政策主张分析

俄罗斯之所以能得以逐步地实现"大国复兴"的梦想,是普京治理和发展俄罗斯经济的战略思想与政策措施的实施;"强权治理、能源战略、扶持创新、追求增速…"等为基本特征的"富民强国"的经济思想与政策,使俄罗斯在世界经济中重新巩固自己的地位;"普京计划"的战略传承则是俄罗斯持续、稳定发展的重要保证.     

普京 警告芬兰总统加入北约试试看

正近日,俄罗斯总统普京在与芬兰总统尼尼斯特举行的联合新闻发布会上表示,无论芬兰是否加入北约,俄罗斯都尊重芬兰的选择。但普京在与芬兰总统的会面中直言不讳地警告说,如果芬兰加入北约,俄罗斯将调动军队予以回应。"试想一下,如果芬兰加入北约,这意味着芬兰军队不再是独立的主权国家军队,而是成为北约军事基地设施的一     

论执政能力建设的合法性维护意蕴

加强执政能力建设是中国社会发展的现实需要。失业下岗问题、贫富差距问题和“三农”问题等为代表的经济和社会问题及其政治后果 ,使得共产党执政的合法性危机走向显性化。加强执政能力建设是共产党治理显性化合法性危机 ,践行合法性维护的理性自觉行为。以合法性维护理论为工具探讨加强执政能力建设这一政治决策的本质具有重要的理论与实践意义。     

同样的普京，不同的时代

正莫斯科万人非法集会背后,是民众对普京及其领导政府的不满。普京,还是同样的普京——果决、强势,象征着稳定,但这个夏天,俄罗斯年轻人的诉求,看上去不一样了。俄罗斯总统普京坐在了"火药"桶上。8月15日,修缮人员意外在克林姆林宫花园的地下发现了一枚航空炸弹。迅速地,这枚自二战时期就悄悄潜伏在此处的炸弹被安全处理。但在克里姆林宫外,并非所有危机都像这枚炸弹一样得     

Party politics: the political impact of the first ladies’ social role

All first ladies have entertained socially while in the White House. Indeed, the role is so much a part of the office that hosting is expected of the presidential spouses. This article considers the political impact of social hosting, a function that has often had significant consequences on the presidency and has allowed first ladies to influence political affairs.     

水门事件对美国隐蔽行动的影响

水门事件作为一次非法的、失败的情报活动,对冷战期间美国的隐蔽行动的实施产生了重大影响。水门事件直接导致"帝王般的总统"权力的消亡和国会权力的加速复兴,并引发美国国内对中央情报局及其隐蔽行动的揭露高潮,中央情报局及其隐蔽行动名誉扫地,陷入信用空白;国会随之以前所未有的积极态度介入对中央情报局及其隐蔽行动的调查和监督中,并最终建立起对隐蔽行动的正式监督机制。所有这些都给中央情报局从事隐蔽行动带来了巨大束缚。因此,美国隐蔽行动在上世纪70年代发生大规模收缩的现象,绝不是一种简单的巧合,而与水门事件及其所引发的一系列连锁反应有着密切的关系。     

元末大都城市的粮食供应

元代前中期,大都城市粮食供应稳定,呈现出繁荣的局面。但14世纪四五十年代以后,大都的粮食供应出现了严重危机。对此,元朝政府采取了"兴京畿水利、行畿内屯田","籴粟催漕、济屯粮不足","资遣流民、汰减冗官"三方面的措施,以缓解城市粮食供应不足的问题。这些措施取得了有限的效果,在一定程度上缓和了元朝末年的统治危局。     

Presidential rhetoric,agency turnover,and the importance of salience to bureaucratic leadership

What explains the quit rates of federal agencies? Can presidential rhetoric affect quit rates of federal agencies, particularly those that implement salient policies? Although much research examines other ways presidents may affect the federal bureaucracy, absent is a systematic examination of presidential leadership of agency quit rates, despite the importance of personnel turnover to effective bureaucratic implementation. I argue that presidential rhetoric on the size of government can affect agency turnover. This impact is only likely for agencies that implement salient policies, because salience encourages bureaucratic responsiveness to elected officials. The findings reveal that presidents who speak more favorably about government reduce aggregate turnover in the Environmental Protection Agency and Department of Education from 1980 through 2005. I conclude with some observations about what these findings mean for presidential control of the bureaucracy.     

大地震与社会福利政策建议

日本东北关东地区3.11大地震导致的灾难救援问题引发了日本学者对社会福利的关注。文章在考察大地震后灾区受灾者的心情、想法的基础上,从中国中央政府的应对措施、对口支援、临时住房、援助的差距、政府工作与志愿行动等方面梳理了中国四川地震救援的经验,指出日本社会结构正面临着三种危机的考验。第一,超老龄社会与少子化、人口减少社会的人口构造危机;第二,通货紧缩、经济萧条、日元升值、股票下跌等经济危机;第三,大地震、海啸、核电站事故带来的环境能量危机。日本可以参考和借鉴中国的经验开展大地震后的恢复、重建工作。受灾者的生活重建是重建的首要任务。在中央政府、地方自治体常设危机管理组织;明确灾害应对的程序;制定社会政策的基本目标;强化受灾者援助的政策手段;完善医疗、福利、护理服务;发展区域产业和开创就业;提供住房保障;着手能够对抗灾害的坚固的地域社会与街区建设。     

全球视野下人民币国际化的经验借鉴和道路选择

美国次贷危机爆发后,我国政府越来越清楚地意识到人民币国际化的重要性。从央行加快人民币结算试点以及建立上海国际金融中心目标的确立,无不旨在提高人民币的国际地位。纵观世界货币史,英镑、美元、日元和欧元等主权货币为争夺世界经济话语权,引发了一场又一场的货币战争。当前,我国应借鉴其成功的经验,反思其衰败的教训,谨慎而务实地推进人民币实现国际化。     

Presidential Direct Action and Policy Continuity: The Case of U.S. International Population Policy*

Objectives. The purpose of this study is to describe and analyze the modern practice of unilateral presidential policy making in the area of U.S. international population policy. The analysis focuses on the implications of this practice in a constitutional system intended to limit and constrain direct presidential action in policy making. Methods. The authors conduct their analysis using a variety of qualitative sources, including leading studies on the topics of presidential direct action and U.S. international population policy, and government documents. Conclusions. Policy development in this area has been marked by dramatic back‐and‐forth shifts due to the modern practice of presidents making many decisions without legislative involvement. Although not the only policy area in which this practice has become the norm, the case study of U.S. international population policy reveals the pitfalls of deviating from the constitutional design of a system of balanced and constrained powers.     

The impact of avian influenza on the Korean egg market: Who benefited?

The historical decomposition and directed acyclic graph methods are employed to estimate the effect of avian influenza in Korea on egg price transmission between the farm, wholesale, and retail levels. Our findings suggest that farm and retail egg prices are connected by the wholesale price. We also find that the farm-wholesale and the wholesale-retail margins increase during the avian influenza period. Our results imply that the retailer and wholesaler use their market power to increase their price during the food safety crisis. Therefore, the Korean government should control market power by allowing more emergency egg imports.     

‘Civic’ police and the condition of liberty: the rationality of governance in eighteenth-century England

In this article it is argued that previous attempts to understand the organization of eighteenthcentury systems of police have failed to take into account the political implications of governmental organization. Examining the office of constable in terms of the contemporary governmental imagination reveals that concerns with the independence of the officers and the need to ward against ‘corruption’ are not simply practical requirements. The unpaid, sequential nature of eighteenth-century police service was defined in terms of the classical model of civic duty, which saw active participation in government and the rotation of public office as key conditions of the free state, and as such the liberty of the citizens. This vision of freedom as a condition of freedom from dependence or domination, not an absence of interference, was instrumental in defining the way the system of police was debated and reformed over the course of the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. Given that ‘police’ in this period represents a much wider programme of administration than the simple control of law and order, this has implications for our understanding of the structure of eighteenth-century government in general.     

Ranking the presidential spouses

Numerous polls have offered rankings of the presidents but little effort has been made to rate the performance of the president's spouse. Not only has there been far less academic attention devoted to the first ladies, but there are difficulties inherent in assessing this “office” that presidential scholars need not worry about when ranking the commanders-in-chief. Yet, the first lady has emerged as a political “institution” worthy of scholarly attention, including an attempt at ranking them. This article provides the results of a poll ranking the first ladies, along with an analysis of the rankings between activist and traditionalist first ladies, first ladies of different historical periods, and between the presidents and their spouses.