Decision Making and Cognition in Multi‐Echelon Supply Chains: An Experimental Study

Supply chain performance often depends on the individual decisions of channel members. Even when individuals have access to relevant information, order variation tends to increase when moving up the supply chain, a phenomenon known as the bullwhip effect. While prior research has investigated several structural/environmental factors which can mitigate the bullwhip effect, the underlying behavioral factors contributing to it are an open question. Using a production and distribution decision‐making simulation representing a four‐stage serial supply chain, we find that the cognitive profile of decision makers contributes to the bullwhip effect. We found that the specific decision tendency to underweight the supply line is linked to an individual's level of cognitive reflection. Furthermore, performance differs for entire supply chains and for specific echelons, and holds under standard mitigation efforts. The findings have implications for supply chain design, education, and industry.     

The Effects of Competitive Environment on Supply Chain Information Sharing and Performance: An Empirical Study in China

Information sharing in supply chains has become an important topic over the past decade. This study uses data from 617 Chinese manufacturing firms to investigate the relationships among competitive environments, supply chain information sharing (SCIS), and supply chain performance. The results of structural equation modeling analysis show that (i) international competition is positively related to all three types of SCIS whereas local competition is not significantly related to any of the three types, (ii) internal information sharing is positively related to external information sharing with suppliers and customers, and (iii) internal information sharing and information sharing with customers are positively related to superior supply chain performance, whereas supplier information sharing is not significantly related to performance. The findings enhance our understanding of the relationships among competitive environment, SCIS, and supply chain performance in Chinese manufacturing settings.     

Impact of information exchange on supplier forecasting performance

Forecasts of demand are crucial to drive supply chains and enterprise resource planning systems. Usually, well-known univariate methods that work automatically such as exponential smoothing are employed to accomplish such forecasts. The traditional Supply Chain relies on a decentralized system where each member feeds its own Forecasting Support System (FSS) with incoming orders from direct customers. Nevertheless, other collaboration schemes are also possible, for instance, the Information Exchange framework allows demand information to be shared between the supplier and the retailer. Current theoretical models have shown the limited circumstances where retailer information is valuable to the supplier. However, there has been very little empirical work carried out. Considering a serially linked two-level supply chain, this work assesses the role of sharing market sales information obtained by the retailer on the supplier forecasting accuracy. Weekly data from a manufacturer and a major UK grocery retailer have been analyzed to show the circumstances where information sharing leads to improved forecasting accuracy. Without resorting to unrealistic assumptions, we find significant evidence of benefits through information sharing with substantial improvements in forecast accuracy.     

信息共享下库存量牛鞭效应的影响因素研究

目前的研究多从供应链上游角度出发考虑传统牛鞭效应,而本文从供应链下游的角度研究库存量牛鞭效应得到了不一样的管理学启示.在需求函数方面,建立的需求模型包括市场规模、价格敏感性系数等更有现实意义的要素.在此,本文建立了包括一个零售商和一个制造商的简单两级供应链,得出了制造商在采用补充至订货点策略和最小均方差预测技术,在两种不同的信息共享模式下的库存量牛鞭效应表达式,并对他们的影响因素进行了分析.而且通过数值分析对模型进行了验证并得到新的结果.通过研究发现,信息共享能够显著降低制造商的库存量牛鞭效应;零售商和制造商的库存量牛鞭效应都不受市场规模的影响;零售商的库存量牛鞭效应在一定条件下不存在;相比于零售商提前期,制造商提前期对制造商的库存量牛鞭效应影响更大.同时,价格敏感性系数、价格自相关系数等因素对制造商库存量牛鞭效应也有不同程度的影响.     

The impact of supply chain management practices on competitive advantage and organizational performance

Effective supply chain management (SCM) has become a potentially valuable way of securing competitive advantage and improving organizational performance since competition is no longer between organizations, but among supply chains. This research conceptualizes and develops five dimensions of SCM practice (strategic supplier partnership, customer relationship, level of information sharing, quality of information sharing, and postponement) and tests the relationships between SCM practices, competitive advantage, and organizational performance. Data for the study were collected from 196 organizations and the relationships proposed in the framework were tested using structural equation modeling. The results indicate that higher levels of SCM practice can lead to enhanced competitive advantage and improved organizational performance. Also, competitive advantage can have a direct, positive impact on organizational performance.     

供应链中物流及信息流管理

供应链管理使企业在变化的市场环境中有效地与其它企业合作,取得集体竞争优势。本文首先讨论了后勤学与供应链管理的定义和之间的关系。本文认为供应链管理的核心是物流与信息流的控制。物流控制决策主要包括操作层次的库存补充和运输路径规划,以及战略层次的设施地点规划。信息流管理跨越部门与企业的界限将相关的应用集成起来。动态联盟协调各企业内部的生产经营活动,战略性地决定物流与信息流的构形。     

IMPACT OF POS DATA SHARING ON SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT: AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY

We examine the impact of point of sale (POS) data sharing on ordering decisions in a multi‐echelon supply chain. In particular, we focus on how exposure to POS data may help reduce the “bullwhip effect,” the tendency of orders to increase in variability as one moves up a supply chain. Theoretical studies have shown that exposure to POS data can lead to a reduction in the bullwhip effect when suppliers have no prior knowledge of the demand distribution. The benefit of sharing POS data in stable industries, where the demand distribution is commonly known, is less clear. We study this phenomenon from a behavioral perspective in the context of a simple, serial, supply chain subject to information lags and stochastic demand. We find, using a controlled simulation experiment, that sharing POS information does help reduce some components of the bullwhip effect in a stable demand setting, namely the order oscillation of upstream members. We offer one possible explanation for this improvement by examining the relationship between order decisions and demand line information.     

供应链治理机制与供应链绩效之间的相互作用关系——基于信息共享的中介效应和信息技术水平的调节效应

本文构建起了供应链治理机制与供应链绩效之间的相互作用关系理论模型，并进而对信息共享在其中所起的中介效应及信息技术水平在其中所起着的调节效应进行剖析。以380份来自于供应链相关岗位的中高层管理人员及技术人员的问卷作为样本，利用结构方程模型对社会控制、正式控制、信息技术水平、信息共享及供应链绩效之间的相关关系进行实证研究。研究结果表明：（1）社会控制对信息共享及供应链绩效均产生正向影响，信息共享对供应链绩效也产生正向影响；而正式控制则对信息共享产生显著的负向作用关系，且其对供应链绩效的作用关系并不显著；（2）信息共享在社会控制和供应链绩效之间的作用关系中起着部分中介的作用，但其在正式控制-供应链绩效间的中介作用则并不显著；（3）信息技术水平对于社会控制-信息共享和正式控制-信息共享间的关系具有调节效应。     

供应链信息管理研究现状及展望

供应链信息管理问题已涉及的研究范围包括供应链上信息流特点的研究,信息分类的研究,牛鞭效应的存在、成因及弱化措施的研究,牛鞭效应以外的其它类型信息失真的研究,由信息失真引起的信息风险问题的研究,以及利用信息共享相关技术支持解决信息管理问题的研究等。对供应链上的信息分类、信息失真、信息风险和信息共享等信息管理问题的国内外研究成果进行了全面的回顾和总结。通过对供应链上信息管理问题的研究方法进行的分析和总结,针对供应链中普遍存在的信息管理问题指出了进一步研究的方向。     

非平稳需求状态下虚拟企业牛鞭效应的存在性分析

本文从供应链管理的角度出发,将牛鞭效应的概念和模型引入虚拟企业的运营过程中,运用可变系数的自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型对虚拟企业上下游成员企业需求信息进行预测,研究非平稳需求状态下虚拟企业内上下游企业订货水平的差异,证明了虚拟企业运营中牛鞭效应的存在性,最后提出除虚拟企业的敏捷经营、信息共享对牛鞭效应的影响以外,需求的波动也是影响牛鞭效应的重要因素,并讨论了信息完全共享的情况下牛鞭效应存在的条件.     

The impact of information sharing in supply chains on organisational performance: an empirical study

Information sharing has been cited as one of the major means to enhance supply chain performance. It allows companies to better coordinate their activities with their supply chain partners that lead to increased performance. This study conceptualises and assesses several factors that influence the degree of information sharing in supply chains, namely integrated information technologies, internal integration, information quality and costs–benefits sharing. The relationship between the degree of information sharing and organisational performance is then tested. Data from 150 manufacturing companies were collected and proposed relationships are examined using structural equation modelling. The results show that integrated information technologies and information quality have positive influence on the intensity of information sharing. However, internal integration and costs–benefits sharing do not relate to the intensity of information sharing. This study finds that information sharing does not directly relate to organisational performance. Its relationship is mediated by collaboration practices with supply chain partners. This suggests that information sharing is essential but insufficient by itself to bring significant performance improvements.     

在ARIMA(0,1,1)需求下的牛鞭效应与信息共享的评价

本文考虑一个包含一个供应商和一个零售商的两级供应链,研究在需求模型ARIMA(0,1,1)下牛鞭效应的量化和信息共享的价值,比较信息共享之前和之后的差异,其结果表明信息共享能给供应商带来减轻牛鞭效应、减少现有平均库存以及降低成本等好处。     

Strategic risk in supply chain contract design

Supply chains facing asymmetric information can either operate in a cooperative mode with information and benefit sharing or can choose a non-cooperative form of interaction and align their incentives via screening contracts. In the cooperative mode, supply chain efficiency can be achieved, but high levels of trust and trustworthiness are required. In the non-cooperative mode, the contract mechanism guarantees a second best supply chain performance, but only if all parties choose their equilibrium strategies without trembles. Experimental evidence, however, shows that both operating modes often fail due to strategic risk. Cooperation is disrupted by deceptive signals and the lack of trust, whereas non-cooperative strategies suffer from persistent out-of-equilibrium behavior. We present two means to reduce strategic risk. First, a punishment mechanism leads to a better matching of trust and trustworthiness and supports the cooperative operating mode. Second, an enforcement of self-selection supports the non-cooperative equilibrium by increasing the attractiveness of screening contracts. We find that supply chain performance can benefit from reduced strategic risk in either operating mode.     

供应链中的信息共享激励:动态模型

信息共享对促进整个供应链的绩效极为关键,但是供应链中的成员缺乏进行信息共享的激励。本文以一个两阶段的多任务委托-代理模型来研究供应链中的核心企业对其供应商进行供应活动和信息共享活动的最优激励问题,并用它来解释供应链中合作伙伴关系的持续改善过程。结果表明:供应商努力成本的边际替代率在信息共享以及正常供应活动的激励中起着关键性的作用。     

供应链网络系统的牛鞭效应时滞因素分析与库存控制策略研究

牛鞭效应的存在严重影响了供应链系统的运作效率,增加了供应链管理的复杂性。本文基于供应链网络库存状态的内部系统动力学机制,构建了供应链网络库存系统的状态转移模型,并引入时滞影响因素,通过供应链网络库存系统的波动状态描述牛鞭效应。在此模型基础上,针对供应链网络系统的牛鞭效应问题,提出了一类新的基于库存波动状态的动态供应链库存控制策略,并运用系统稳定性理论,将该策略的参数优化求解问题转化成线性矩阵不等式的求解问题。最后通过系统仿真深入分析了供应链网络库存系统对库存控制策略参数以及系统时滞因素的敏感性,并验证了该动态库存控制策略可以有效地抑制牛鞭效应。     

供应链中断下顾客缺货反应对牛鞭效应的影响研究

传统的关于供应链牛鞭效应的研究,仅关注供应链上游成员间（供应商、制造商或零售商）的协调运作,而忽略缺货发生后顾客缺货反应对供应链动态性的影响。本文利用高层级Petri-net对包含两个制造商、两个零售商的供应链系统进行建模与仿真,定量地研究不同的缺货强度下顾客缺货反应对两条相互竞争的供应链牛鞭效应的影响。研究结果表明,顾客缺货反应对缺货品牌及其竞争品牌的牛鞭效应均存在显著影响,但各种缺货反应对牛鞭效应的影响程度有所差异,且供应链中断强度（主要体现为发生缺货的品牌市场份额以及缺货持续时间）亦对牛鞭效应产生显著影响。我们建议不同产品类型（对应不同的顾客反应组合）的管理者根据品牌的市场占有率、缺货持续时间等因素对不同类型的顾客进行购买行为的引导,以缓解牛鞭效应并保持市场份额。     

Order Stability in Supply Chains: Coordination Risk and the Role of Coordination Stock

The bullwhip effect describes the tendency for the variance of orders in supply chains to increase as one moves upstream from consumer demand. We report on a set of laboratory experiments with a serial supply chain that tests behavioral causes of this phenomenon, in particular the possible influence of coordination risk. Coordination risk exists when individuals' decisions contribute to a collective outcome and the decision rules followed by each individual are not known with certainty, for example, where managers cannot be sure how their supply chain partners will behave. We conjecture that the existence of coordination risk may contribute to bullwhip behavior. We test this conjecture by controlling for environmental factors that lead to coordination risk and find these controls lead to a significant reduction in order oscillations and amplification. Next, we investigate a managerial intervention to reduce the bullwhip effect, inspired by our conjecture that coordination risk contributes to bullwhip behavior. Although the intervention, holding additional on‐hand inventory, does not change the existence of coordination risk, it reduces order oscillation and amplification by providing a buffer against the endogenous risk of coordination failure. We conclude that the magnitude of the bullwhip can be mitigated, but that its behavioral causes appear robust.     

供应链环境下合作预测效果的分析

本文定量分析了供应链中合作预测对需求长鞭效应的减小作用,在多节点企业所组成的供应链中,合作预测对订单量的波动和需求预测误差的波动起到积极的抑制作用。本文通过理论研究和数值分析的结果表明,供应链信息共享和合作预测能够控制需求流动现象。     

Decision knowledge sharing: flexible supply chains in KM context

Supply chain excellence has a real impact on business strategy. Building supply chains as flexible systems represents one of the most exciting opportunities to create value and one of the most challenging tasks for the policy makers. It requires integrated decision making amongst autonomous chain partners with effective decision knowledge sharing between them. The key to success lies in knowing which decision has more impact on the overall performance and this can be achieved by appropriate knowledge sharing. In this context, knowledge management (KM) can be used as an effective approach to achieve knowledge sharing and decision synchronisation in supply chains. Flexible supply chains (FSC_s) are more complex and involve multiple autonomous players with varying technical cultures (affects knowledge mindsets), managerial background (affects decision knowledge) and supply chain management (SCM) exposures (affects knowledge sharing attitudes). Thus there is a need to develop demo models that can encourage chain managers towards collaborative knowledge sharing in the supply chains. This paper presents the application of one such model based on decision knowledge sharing (DKS) for improved supply chain management. A simulation model of a flexible supply chain based on DKS framework is developed for demo purposes. The key results are highlighted along with industry implications. The cost based performance of DKS at different levels of flexibility is studied. Thus a careful analysis of the chain with a focus on collaborative decisions is useful to ensure success. This paper addresses this interesting and challenging domain.     

顾客策略行为与风险偏好下供应链利润分享

考虑由1个生产商、1个销售商和具有策略行为与风险偏好的顾客群体所组成的供应链.存在顾客策略行为与风险偏好的情况下,利用理性预期均衡的相关知识,分析销售商定价与库存决策,研究供应链利润分享契约问题.研究结果表明:销售商的利润随着顾客风险偏好程度的增加而减少;为了缓解利润削减,销售商需要降低销售价格和订货量,而不是提高销售...