Carrying Capacity and Population Optimum

Journal of Population Research -     

中国西北地区人口承载力及承载压力分析

本文从水资源角度出发,通过一定的计量分析,探讨了西北地区的水资源人口承载力及其动态变化,并结合人口规模预测,进一步研究了西北地区人口对资源和环境的压力状况。研究发现,西北地区人口承载力较低,但今后会进一步有所上升,与人口变动相比,人口超载现象将始终存在,但是程度将略有降低。     

要发展地看待城市人口容量问题

以北京市为例,本文考察了我国城市人口容量规划工作的历史发展过程。研究结果表明多年来,我国城市人口发展规划已经习以为常地形成了“步步为营,节节败退”的局面。形成这种局面的一个重要原因是城市管理者和规划部门、规划人员对待城市人口容量问题的保守态度和机械、静止的研究方法。为避免这种局面的重现,必须发展地看待城市人口容量问题。     

Assessing the Carrying Capacity of the Florida Keys

In 1996, the State of Florida mandated a study of the Florida Keys, the most populated portion of Monroe County, explicitly calling for a carrying capacity analysis to function as a basis for determining building permit allocation in the future. The Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study, conducted by the State of Florida and the US Army Corps of Engineers, has encountered challenges in trying to convert the vague carrying capacity concept into a functional, quantitative method. Difficulties in responding to external peer review advice suggests that institutional constraints are hindering re-direction of the study.     

Study of Main Function District Population Carrying Capacity

The population carrying capacity of restricted district,key development district,optimized district appear gradient decrease. While differentiation of satisfaction regarding population capacity appears in optimizing district, key development districts or restricted districts, the unbalanced distribution of population between districts or within districts emerges. Using multi-pronged measures to reasonably control population size and guide the movement of population to the suburbs, this is a realistic policy direction for Beijing,Shanghai Guangzhou and Shenzhen First-tier cities. Other optimizing districts and key development districts should raise their population carrying capacity’s short board. Restricted district should increase their financial input and improve their Improve their level of public service.     

主体功能区人口承载能力研究

从人口承载能力水平看,限制开发区、重点开发区、优化开发区总体呈现承载能力梯次降低的格局。无论优化开发区、重点开发区还是限制开发区人口承载能力满意程度出现了一定分化,人口的不平衡分布在不同开发区之间,以及开发区内部都得以显现。采取多管齐下的措施合理控制人口规模,引导人口向郊区流动,是京沪穗深等一线城市比较现实的政策取向。其他优化开发区和重点开发区应提高人口承载的短板,限制开发区要加大财政投入,提高公共服务水平,鼓励人口向宜居地区流动。     

Human Carrying Capacity Is Determined by Food Availability

Simple mathematical models have illustrated the relationship between human carrying capacity and population growth. In this study, food supply is proposed as the variable which best accounts for the human carrying capacity. The logistic equation, using food supply data as a variable carrying capacity, yields population estimates which are in accord with actual population numbers. That food supply data adequately fits the logistic model of human population dynamics provides evidence that, consistent with ecological notions typically applied only to nonhuman species, human population increases are a function of increased food availability.     

Emergy Measures of Carrying Capacity to Evaluate Economic Investments

This paper outlines a method for determining carrying capacity for economic investments based on an emergy evaluation of the environmental resources of a region. Using data from tourism development in Mexico and Papua New Guinea, the concept of carrying capacity is related to intensity of development, environmental support area, and the fit of economic development in local environments and economies.Emergy, a unit of resource use and work potential, is used to quantitatively evaluate intensity of development. Emergy evaluation is briefly described and the evaluations of tourism used to further explain the methodology. The total annual resource use for the tourist resorts and the economies in which they are embedded (including inputs of renewable and nonrenewable resources and purchased goods and services) was calculated and converted to emergy units. The renewable resource base and an Environmental Loading Ratio (ELR), are proposed as a means for determining both long term and short term carrying capacity respectively. The concept of sustainable development is related to the net emergy benefits that result from development. Expressed as a ratio of the amount of emergy received by the local economy to the amount that is exported (embodied in tourists), sustainability is suggested to result from a positive emergy trade balance.     

攀枝花市旅游人口承载容量研究

选择四川省攀枝花市典型旅游城市5县19个景点作为研究对象,通过分析空间、社会、经济作为三大主要旅游人口容量的影响因子,并改进了社会容量方法,定量分析了攀枝花市旅游人口承载容量。研究表明,空间承载容量成为制约攀枝花市景区发展并限制接待游客容量的主要因素,主要包括旅游线路不发达,景区内可达面积小。本研究有助于丰富和完善旅游人口承载容量的理论和研究体系,可为当地的生态环境保护和旅游开发建设提供科学依据。     

发展循环经济提升自然资源承载力

自然资源是社会经济发展不可缺少的支撑基础,没有资源的支撑,任何国家和地区的经济和社会都不可能有相应的发展。而资源可承载的社会经济发展能力是有限的,无论发达国家还是发展中国家,必须考虑到资源承载力的限制。随着我国经济持续快速增长,资源消耗增加,自然资源对我国经济增长的约束日趋明显,针对资源效率低下、承载力减弱的现状,我国将发展循环经济纳入"十一五规划纲要"。发展循环经济要求以环境友好的方式利用自然资源,实现经济活动向生态化转变,这无异于增加了资源的总量,提升了资源的承载能力。     

人口承载力预警系统研究

为了考察我国各个地区人口区域分布的合理性,我们改变了仅用人口密度来衡量人口分布的通常做法,通过引用适度人口指标考察了我国各省市经济人口承载容量和资源环境人口承载容量。并在此基础上建立了我国各省市人口承载力预警系统,为决策者制定人口发展战略提供了较好的参考依据。     

人口容量属于社会范畴还是自然范畴？

本文通过分析影响人口容量的因素,提出社会因素是影响人口容量大小的重要决定因素,并指出其现实意义。     

深圳市人口承载力分析及对策研究

本文运用系统动力学的方法。综合分析了在不同方案下土地与水等资源性因素对深圳未来人口承载力的影响。并根据对不同方案的结果以及它们对深圳城市发展的影响的评价,从人口、资源环境、政策法律和产业结构等方面提出了缓解深圳人口承载压力的政策建议。     

人口承载力指标系的建立及量化

有关人口承载力概念、内涵、指标体系与评价模型的研究在我国已取得了长足的发展。纵观渊源,可归结为从容量、阈值、能力等角度分别进行的研究。然而,全球经济一体化进程的不断推进,开放式条件分析框架下的人口承载力已从简单意义上的"量"演变为复杂状况下"量"与"性"才能研究的目标对象。开放式条件作为现今必需的研究背景,结合环境和资源的相对稳定性、人口规模与经济规模大小的适应性,有必要建立衡量和评价人口承载力"质量"的指标系。通过围绕社会经济状况、环境资源、区域人口状况三系统讨论了人口承载力指标系的构建与量化。     

对中国人口转变的再思考

论文作者通过对数十年来中国人口婚育行为模式、家庭结构与类型、死因构成模式转变的简要描述,指出仅在传统和最基本的人口动态、即人口出生、死亡和增长的角度来理解和认识人口转变、包括中国的人口转变,已远远不够,难以适应时代和人口发展的要求。提出人口转变是一个多维的动态历史过程,是一系列特定人口转变的集合。其中人口出生率、死亡率和自然增长率的变动仅仅是人口转变的表象和外壳,其内核则是通过制度、文化和技术等承载的人口行为及其动力机制,由此引致的变化才代表了人口的内在转变,强调关注人口的内在转变是理解中国特色人口转变道路的重要视角和基础。在对人口转变内涵探索的前提下,借助于对国内人口学界近些年有代表性的人口转变理论研究成果的介绍和分析,作者初步探讨了人口转变理论研究的拓展和创新问题。     

单因素约束下的坡市人口合理容量测算——以成都市为例

为制定城市发展规划,以实现城市可持续发展的目标,需对城市合理人口容量进行测算。考虑人口容量与经济、社会、自然的关系,选取国民生产总值、经济弹性系数、产业发展、耕地资源、水资源为制约人口容量的制约因素．测度各因素制约下的人口合理容量,最后应用“木桶原理”得到同时满足各个制约因素的人口合理容量。     

Emergy-based Simulation to Assess Brazil’s Long-term Carrying Capacity: Environment, Electricity and Population

A macroscopic mini-model of Brazil’s electrical generating capacity (BRAZELECTRIX, Brazilian Electricity Matrix) was developed using the Energy Systems Language and simulated with iconographic Extend® software to explore long-term (200 years) population carrying capacity. South American reserves of natural gas (NG) and Brazilian stream hydro-power potential were assumed as the main inputs to electric power production. Energy values (e.g., kWh, joules) for fuels, electricity and environment were transformed to solar emergy (i.e., solar equivalent joules) to simplify cross comparison with a single metric. BRAZELECTRIX was calibrated using a holistic method that used mean component life-times and conservation of material and energy for each individual unit. Validation of BRAZELECTRIX, based on historical data, gave a root mean square error of 8% for hydroelectricity and 28% for natural gas use. Investments in natural gas infrastructure (e.g., contracts, pipelines, processing plants and electric power plants) accelerated Brazil’s expansion of electrical generating capacity for a finite period, allowing the country to reach its renewable (hydro-power only) carrying capacity 100 years sooner than without (2040 vs. 2140). Brazil has a total of 560 zetta-solar equivalent joules per annum (1 Zseja = 1 ×10²¹ sej per year) of stream hydro-power potential; 170 Zseja is currently used for electricity generation. According to BRAZELECTRIX, eventually 390 Zseja will be tapped for hydroelectricity. The standard of living, as measured by annual per capita electrical solar emergy, had risen 680% from 166 tera-solar equivalent joules (Tseja) to 1130 Tseja during the 35 year period following 1965 and was predicted to increase another 75% to its maximum (1973 Tseja) in 2050. By comparison, an urbanizing state of the United States (North Carolina) had an annual per capita electrical solar emergy of 7815 Tseja in 1992, indicating that Brazil could reach a living standard, as measured by per capita electricity usage, equal to one-forth the level of United States. Macroscopic mini-models combined with emergy accounting evaluated long-term paths for Brazil’s electricity supply and related it to natural environment trade-offs to demonstrate how sustainable carrying capacity of a developing nation can be forecast.     

区域人口承载能力的多因素分析——以上海为例

上海人口增长的规划控制目标,从根本上取决于其人口承载量的拓展潜力.区域人口承载能力研究,所面对的是由人口、资源、环境、经济和社会构成的复杂巨系统,必须充分重视研究对象的系统属性.本文在构建区域人口承载能力系统框架的基础上,利用主成分分析法建立综合评价模型,并对上海在不同发展阶段,与不同标准相对应的各项资源经济要素所能提供的人口承载能力进行了测算分析.     

城市人口承载力研究的新问题及其治理

在综述和评价既往关于人口承载力研究的基础上,从经济和社会两个方面论证了城市人口承载力研究面临的新背景,并指出了城市人口承载力研究中在公共服务和公共安全方面存在的新问题,最后针对问题的治理提出了相对应的政策建议。