Demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa: How big will the economic dividend be?

In mid-demographic-transition, many Asian countries enjoyed a large demographic ‘dividend’: extra economic growth owing to falling dependant/workforce ratios, or slower natural increase, or both. We estimate the dividend, 1985–2025, in sub-Saharan Africa and its populous countries. Dependency and natural increase peaked around 1985, 20 years after Asia. The UN projects an acceleration of the subsequent slow falls but disregards slowish declines in young-age mortality and thus, we argue, overestimates future fertility decline. Even if one accepts their projection, arithmetical and econometric evidence suggests an annual, if not total, dividend well below Asia's. The dividend arises more from falling dependency than reduced natural increase, and could be increased by accelerating the fertility decline (e.g., by reducing young-age mortality) or by employing a larger workforce productively. Any dividend from transition apart, low saving in much of Africa (unlike Asia) means that, given likely natural increase, current consumption per person is unsustainable because it depletes capital per person.     

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AIDS, “reversal” of the demographic transition and economic development: evidence from Africa

Using country- and region-level data, I investigate the effect of HIV/AIDS on fertility in Africa during 1985–2000. Results differ depending on the variation used and the estimation method. Between estimates that exploit cross-sectional variation suggest a positive significant effect of HIV/AIDS on fertility, whereas within estimates that are identified of off time-series variation show both positive and negative results depending on the HIV/AIDS variable used. These within estimates are insignificant in most of the specifications.     

Is migration an effective adaptation to climate-related agricultural distress in sub-Saharan Africa?

Population and Environment - Migration is often considered a form of climate change adaptation by which individuals, households, and communities seek to reduce the risks associated with climate...     

Changes in HIV/AIDS knowledge and testing behavior in Africa: how much and for whom?

Demographic and Health Survey data from nine African countries make it clear that HIV/AIDS prevention knowledge has been increasing. Still, in many cases, fewer than half of adult respondents can identify specific prevention behaviors. Knowledge is lowest in rural areas and among women. HIV testing generally remains rare but is highly variable across countries, likely reflecting differences in the supply of testing services. In most cases, schooling and wealth impacts on prevention knowledge have either been stable or have increased; hence, in the majority of contexts, initial disparities in knowledge by education and wealth levels have persisted or widened.

Should a Second Demographic Transition Follow the First? Demographic Contrasts: Canada and South Korea

Social Indicators Research -     

Increasing fertility in cohabiting unions: evidence for the second demographic transition in the united states?

As cohabitation becomes increasingly common and accepted, one might expect the meaning of this arrangement to change. In some countries in Europe (e.g., Sweden), as cohabitation became more prevalent, it moved from a deviant status to an acceptable alternative to marriage. Will the same thing happen in the United States? To investigate this question, I examine increases in the proportion of births occurring in cohabiting unions, using data from the 1987–1988 National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH) and the1995 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). The standardization and decomposition procedure shows that most of the growth in the proportion of births to cohabitors is the result of increases in the proportion of women cohabiting, rather than changes in union formation behaviors surrounding pregnancies.     

Ethnic Diversity and Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa: Do Institutions Reduce the Noise?

Studies on the causes of income differences between the rich and the poor have received an extensive attention in the inequality empirics. While ethnic diversity has also been identified as one of the fundamental causes of income inequality, the role of institutions as a mediating factor in the ethnicity-inequality nexus has not received the scholarly attention it deserves. To this end, this study complements the existing literature by investigating the extent to which institutional framework corrects the noisy influence originating from the nexus between “ethnic diversity” and inequality in 26 sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1996–2015. The empirical evidence is based on pooled OLS, fixed effects and system GMM estimators. The main findings reveal that the mediating influences of institutional settings are defective, thus making it extremely difficult to modulate the noisy impacts of ethno-linguistic and religious heterogeneity on inequality. In addition, the negative influences orchestrated by ethno-linguistic and religious diversities on inequality fail to attenuate the impact of income disparity even when interacted with institutions. On the policy front, institutional reforms tailored toward economic, political and institutional governances should be targeted.

     

Nonmarital Childbearing in Russia: Second Demographic Transition or Pattern of Disadvantage?

Using retrospective union, birth, and education histories that span 1980–2003, this study investigates nonmarital childbearing in contemporary Russia. We employ a combination of methods to decompose fertility rates by union status and analyze the processes that lead to a nonmarital birth. We find that the increase in the percentage of nonmarital births was driven mainly by the growing proportion of women who cohabit before conception, not changing fertility behavior of cohabitors or changes in union behavior after conception. The relationship between education and nonmarital childbearing has remained stable: the least-educated women have the highest birth rates within cohabitation and as single mothers, primarily because of their lower probability of legitimating a nonmarital conception. These findings suggest that nonmarital childbearing Russia has more in common with the pattern of disadvantage in the United States than with the second demographic transition. We also find several aspects of nonmarital childbearing that neither of these perspectives anticipates.     

Demographic trends in less and least developed countries: Convergence or divergence?

Journal of Population Research - Many scholars share the assumption that demographic patterns in the world are converging over time. The present study analyses the temporal trends of specific...     

Refining the Conceptualization and Measurement of Women’s Empowerment in Sub-Saharan Africa Using Data from the 2013 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey

The measurement of women’s empowerment has long eluded academics and practitioners alike. A key challenge relates to the way researchers construct measures of empowerment, pairing indicators together in either composite indices, or multiple dimensions. This study tests three commonly found measurement models of women’s empowerment using data from the 2013 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey. Model fit statistics indicate that a seven factor first order Functional Scales of Empowerment model best fits the data. Implications following from this study’s findings include that simplification into composite indices, a commonly used method to aggregate indicators of empowerment may lead to erroneous conclusions regarding the effect of empowerment on development and health outcomes and hamper comparative research. The results from this study contribute to the highly important and often ignored discussion regarding measurement of women’s empowerment.     

Social Security Green Paper： Community Nursing will be the Preferred Way for Old-age Support in the Future .

正The green paper on social security Report on Social Security Development in China 2014 announced in Beijing on July 1,2014 stated that community nursing would serve as the preferred way for old-age support in the future while there was still a large shortfall in community nursing,which required urgent improvement.Community Nursing Will Be the Preferred Way for Old-age Support in the Future At present,China is facing the severe challenge of population ageing.Elderly aged over 60 years old have     

Low fertility in Malaysia: Can it be explained?

Journal of Population Research - This study assesses the determinants of the fertility rate in Malaysia using the combined tests for cointegration and generalised variance decomposition analysis of...     

Superstitions surrounding the choice of wedding date in Italy: What has changed since the beginning of the economic development process to the present?

In Italy, it is believed that Tuesdays and Fridays are particularly unlucky days for weddings as well as the 17th day of each month. Previous studies realized in the aftermath of the Second World War have shown the strong influence that these superstitions had in determining the wedding dates in the entire country. We have used exhaustive data collection of all marriages celebrated in Italy in the years 2007–2009 to investigate whether superstitions are still able to influence the choices of spouses. We find that this influence is still present after the great economic, social and demographic transformation of Italian society. We also show that a wife’s education reduces the influence of superstition on the choice of the date of marriage while those who opt for a religious rite are also those who are more careful in avoiding inauspicious days.     

Demographic Transitions and Changes in the Living Arrangements of Children: The Netherlands 1850–2010

The transformation of Europe’s demographic regime over the past two centuries has led to considerable changes in the living arrangements of children. We study long-term changes, making use of three datasets covering the living arrangements of children born between 1850 and 1993 in the Netherlands: a historical national sample of children born between 1850 and 1922, a retrospective survey covering children born between 1923 and 1985, and data from the national population registry relating to children born between 1986 and 1993. We describe the changes in terms of whether fathers, mothers, and stepparents lived with these children at birth and at age 15. We observe a massive increase in the percentage of children growing up in a complete family between the 1850–1879 cohort and the mid-twentieth century cohorts and a return to nineteenth-century conditions in the most recent birth cohort. Time spent in a complete family increased continuously from the mid-nineteenth century on, to decrease again from the 1960s on.     

Sub-replacement fertility in national populations: Can it be raised?

This paper comments on the four main functions demographers perform: fact-finding, analysis, prediction, and policymaking. Successes in the first two of these are counterbalanced by weakness in predictive ability. The focus of the comments, however, is on policy. Demographers were influential in promoting efforts to lower very high fertility but are ineffectual in proposing policies that could reverse the tendency of fertility to sink well below replacement levels. The paper argues for a break from exclusive reliance on the standard measures of modern welfare states intended to raise fertility and urges exploration of radically new approaches. Two promising innovations are briefly outlined: one would give the right to vote to all citizens regardless of age, the voting right of minors being exercised by parental proxy, and another that would reform state-administered pension schemes by arranging a direct transfer of working children’s mandatory contributions to social security funds to their retired parents.