Long-term Cereal Price Changes: How Important is the Speculative Element?

The objective of this article is to provide an analysis of the relationship existing between cereal prices and several variables (population, income, exports, the exchange rate, and speculation), by using a linear regression analysis. Specific emphasis is placed on the speculative dimension. Our results show that speculation has played a crucial role during the period June 2001–December 2009. Exports, in some ways connected to the former variable, occupy second place, in terms of significance. However, their impact on cereal prices is less relevant than that of biofuel production. Population growth acts in the opposite direction due to the change in diets, implying that population increases would tend to affect primarily other agricultural markets. Excessive volatility in food prices is a dramatic question. From a demand point of view, consumers in developing countries and vulnerable income groups in other countries (farmers) have to be protected. More than one policy has to be introduced.     

COMMODITY PRICES AND BANK LENDING

We analyze the transmission of changes in commodity prices to bank lending in a large sample of developing countries. A bank-level analysis shows that a fall in commodity net export prices is associated with a reduction of bank lending, particularly for commodity exporters and during episodes of terms-of-trade decline. We complement this analysis with loan-level data from a credit register, which allows us to identify the effect of a commodity price shock on the supply of credit, controlling for unobserved factors that could drive borrowers' credit demand. Results show that banks with relatively lower deposits and poor asset quality transmit the changes in commodity prices to lending more aggressively. (JEL F30, F34, G21, Q02)     

FOOD PRICES,WAGES, AND WELFARE IN RURAL INDIA

With soaring food prices in recent years has come alarm about rising poverty in the developing world. Less appreciated, however, is that many of the poor in agricultural economies may benefit from higher wages. This study finds that wages for manual labor in rural India, both within and outside agriculture, rose faster in districts growing more of those crops with large producer price run‐ups over the 2004–2009 period. Based on a general equilibrium framework that accounts for such wage gains, rural households across the income spectrum are found, contrary to more conventional welfare analysis, to benefit from higher agricultural prices. (JEL Q17, Q18, F14)     

Impact of Rising World Rice Prices on Poverty and Inequality in Burkina Faso

Between January 2006 and April 2008, the prices of most agricultural products rose considerably in international markets. Empirical studies show that this spike in world food prices increased the number of poor households in developing countries, but the extent was not the same in all countries. This article assesses the impact of rising rice prices on poverty and income inequality in Burkina Faso, using a methodology based on the concept of compensating variation combined with the net benefit ratio (NBR) developed by Deaton (1989) and a living standard survey (QUIBB, 2003). The results show that higher prices have a negative impact on income and poverty in the regions with a large proportion of households that are net buyers of rice. The poverty rate increases by 2.2 to 2.9 percentage points depending on the assumptions, the increase being higher in urban areas than in rural areas. Rising rice prices also increase income inequality, which increases particularly in urban areas and in relatively rich regions, but decreases in poor regions with a large proportion of rice producers.     

Economywide Impact of Maize Export Bans on Agricultural Growth and Household Welfare in Tanzania: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model Analysis

Export bans have been frequently used by developing countries in recent years in an attempt to ensure domestic food supplies and insulate domestic market prices from international price hikes. This article uses Tanzania to examine the impact of export bans using a computable general equilibrium model. We find that banning cross‐border maize exports has very little effect on the national food price index and that the benefits from lower maize prices are captured primarily by urban households, while maize producer prices decrease significantly. The export ban further decreases the wage rate for low‐skilled labour and the returns to land, while returns to non‐agricultural capital and wage rates for skilled labour increase, further hurting poor rural households and thus increasing poverty for the country as a whole.     

RETAIL REDLINING: ARE GASOLINE PRICES HIGHER IN POOR AND MINORITY NEIGHBORHOODS?

This study uses new data on retail gasoline prices in three cities to provide evidence on the relationship between neighborhood characteristics and consumer prices. We find that prices do not vary greatly with neighborhood racial composition, but that prices are higher in poor neighborhoods. For a 10% point increase in poor families relative to middle‐upper income families, retail gasoline prices increase by an average of 0.70%. Two‐thirds of this differential is explained by cost, competition, and demand characteristics of poor neighborhoods. The remaining differential likely reflects price discrimination in response to lower competition and/or more inelastic demand in poor neighborhoods. (JEL D43, J15, L71)     

Mainstreaming Nutrition for Better Development Outcomes

Even though the millennium development goals (MDGs) tackle the main economic and social problems in developing countries, nutrition is not addressed adequately despite its important role in achieving the MDGs. It is therefore crucial to mainstream nutrition by strengthening public-private partnerships, increased political and technical capacity and by achieving food security. The paper aims to discuss how strong partnerships bringing public and private efforts together are important to the success of increasing nutritional programs by providing a redesign and marketing of products and services, other services, and funding. The report explores the need to assess the setting of pertinent nutritional policies and to increase technical capacity. The study found that the relation between agriculture and nutrition is a key component for achieving food safety in order to mainstream nutrition into the MDGs. The three main topics considered in this analysis are biotechnology, food trade policies, and bioenergy products as they have a strong impact on prices. Mainstreaming Nutrition for better development outcomes.

Dietary Implications of Supermarket Development: A Global Perspective

Five decisions by supermarket operators have important dietary implications: the location of their outlets; the foods they sell; the prices they charge; the promotional strategies they use; and the nutrition‐related activities they implement. These decisions influence food accessibility, availability, prices and desirability, which in turn influence the decisions consumers make about food. Based on a comprehensive literature review, this article finds that the dietary implications are both positive – supermarkets can make a more diverse diet available and accessible to more people – and negative – supermarkets can reduce the ability of marginalised populations to purchase a high‐quality diet, and encourage the consumption of energy‐dense, nutrient‐poor highly‐processed foods. Overall, the most universally applicable dietary implication is that supermarkets encourage consumers to eat more, whatever the food.     

RENT‐SEEKING AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION

A general model incorporating rent‐seeking activities in the standard neoclassical model of capital accumulation is presented. The welfare of the representative agent is negatively affected by the efficiency of rent‐seeking activities. Although intuitive, this result is not obvious because long‐run income can be positively affected by more efficient rent‐seeking activities. The model is used to provide explanations for some recent experiences in developing countries, including the relative poor performance of economies that experience a move to a more decentralized system and the observed path of total factor productivity (TFP) in countries like Ireland and Venezuela. (JEL D23, D74, O40, O41, O47)     

How Can Low‐income Countries Gain from a Framework Agreement on Climate Change? An Analysis with Integrated Assessment Modelling

By using the integrated assessment model RICE this article carries out a scenario analysis with different assumptions about international negotiations on climate change, in particular hypothesising about reduction in targets for greenhouse gas emissions, technology transfers and financial transfer programmes. It finds that, in terms of growth, developing countries and in particular sub‐Saharan Africa will benefit from agreements that reduce the level of pollution and promote technological diffusion. Moreover, when developed countries are subject to emissions limits and poor regions have no such commitments, financial transfers from rich to developing countries for adaptation and mitigation enhance pro‐poor growth and help the effectiveness of poor countries in reducing emissions.     

‘Water divide’ in the global risk society

In contemporary society, which is also defined as global risk society, the water crisis plays a controversial but decisive role in comparison with other kinds of risk (health care, environmental, financial, warlike). However, the sociological debate does not confer to the world water crisis the right significance: the essay precisely highlights this lack and focuses on the hypothesis that it could be also connected to the lack of interest that mass media agenda-setting shows to this issue. The result is that, in most cases, industrialized countries show an irresponsible approach towards a resource which is so precious for the simple fact that it is exhaustible. Furthermore, the advantages of both development and globalization are not equally distributed from a geographic point of view, and the gap between the ‘rich’ and the ‘poor’ is getting deeper and deeper also within this phenomenon. According to the author's perspective, it would be reasonable to talk about a water divide and assume a sustainable development capable of dealing with the overall problem of drinking water availability, its quality, its public access, with a view to democratic management and the sharing of this resource.     

TRADE,GEOGRAPHY AND THE SKILL PREMIUM IN U.S. MANUFACTURING

A number of studies have suggested that countries (or regions) with access to larger markets have higher wages. In this paper, we examine whether access to larger markets affects skilled and unskilled workers differently. We develop a model relating two key measures of market size, market and supplier access, to industry value added prices. We then estimate the effects of growth in these measures on factor returns in U.S. manufacturing industries between 1984 and 1996. We find that growth in these measures can explain around 5% of the rise in the skill premium over the sample period. (JEL F12, F16, L60)     

Food‐Retail Development and the Myth of Everyday Low Prices: The Case of Brazil

This article analyses the changes in Brazilian food retailing by investigating the co‐existence of, and the pricing variation across, large supermarket chains and small independent supermarkets. It uses cointegration tests to show that, despite the widespread belief that small supermarkets are inefficient and charge higher prices, they in fact charge lower prices. Accordingly, in contrast to the prevailing literature on food‐retail development, competition in food retail is complex and cannot be described as a simple Darwinian process of market concentration. The article explores the survival of small retail and its consequences for the current discussion on modern food retail in developing countries.     

ARBITRAGE ACROSS BORDERS: WHY ITUNES GIFT CARDS SELL ABOVE FACE VALUE ON EBAY

This paper is one of the first to explore international price differences and arbitrage opportunities in the market for downloadable content, by linking the sale of iTunes gift cards above face value on eBay to the arbitrage of iTunes' products (which include downloadable music and videos). This paper shows that iTunes gift cards targeted to non‐U.S. buyers tend to sell for higher prices, controlling for seller reputation, shipping costs, and other variables. Information about the buyers' countries allows us to see whether it is the U.S. store's greater product availability or its lower prices that buyers are interested in. (JEL D40, L10, F10)     

Young Norwegians and their views on climate change and the future: findings from a climate concerned and oil-rich nation

Young people represent the future, but little is known about their attitudes towards climate change, one of the most serious issues facing the world today. The purpose of the present study is to contribute with improved and new knowledge of young Norwegians’ understanding of and attitudes towards this issue, with a special focus on perspectives of the future. Of particular interest is the influence of divergent framings of the climate question in Norway, due to conflicting interests between the petroleum industry and climate concern. The young people's voices are elicited through two different surveys undertaken during the fall of 2013, one national (Norwegian Citizen Panel) and one local (School survey conducted among high-school students). The study generated both quantitative and qualitative findings, stemming from closed-ended as well as open-ended questions. The data were handled through a mixed methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative analyses. The results show that the voices tend to be oriented towards the opinion that Norway has a responsibility to help poor countries as well as a duty to prevent climate change and that the country should reduce its oil production. We further observe that young Norwegians have an optimistic view of the future, based on a pronounced belief in technology and science.     

DOES THE NUMBER OF COUNTRIES IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CYCLE MODELS MATTER?

Until the 1980s, standard models with two large open economies (i.e., the United States and Europe) provided plausible representations of the world economy. However, with the emergence of many developing countries since the 1990s, this approach no longer seems reasonable. In line with this change to the global economic environment, cross-country output correlations between the United States and other countries have risen. This paper extends the standard two-country model to many countries to show that doing so produces closer cross-country correlations to the data. In particular, based on analytical investigation with a simple model and quantitative analysis with a more general model, I show that the cross-country output correlation rises and the cross-country consumption correlation falls as the number of countries in the two models increases. (JEL F40, F41, F44)     

Affordable Prices for Essential Medicines for Developing Countries: Some Economic Issues

This article discusses some recent developments that may help bring about more affordable prices of essential medicines for developing countries. Governments of developing countries should support campaigns for such prices. Generic competition will also bring gains, though these may differ between different income groups. Enterprises could be persuaded to provide free, or subsidised, medicines for their employees, by the expenditures being allowed against liabilities for profits tax. The UN Global Fund could complement the efforts of public action groups, enhance a government's fiscal capabilities and also encourage other measures to reduce the costs of providing medicines.     

Good for the Goose,Bad for the Gander: International Labor Standards and Comparative Development

The international labor rights movement, led by the International Labour Organization (ILO), asserts that developing countries are currently ready for more stringent labor standards. We investigate this claim by examining the timing of labor standard adoption in highly developed countries, which were all once as poor as today’s developing countries and made the trade-off between labor standards and income in the past. Their experience therefore suggests a safe income threshold for adopting similar labor standards in the developing world. We find that every ILO-proposed labor standard is highly premature for the developing countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. Countries there are between 100 and 300 years from reaching this threshold. Similarly, we find that so-called sweatshop-intensive developing countries are between 35 and 100 years from this threshold. ILO-proposed policy is exactly backward. A substantial relaxation of labor standards is the appropriate labor policy for the developing world.

Soviet Marxism and population policy

American demographers have maintained that Marxism, notably Soviet Marxism, is consistently pronatalist. The Soviet view is said to be that population growth is not a problem and that birth control policies in either developed or developing societies are to be rejected; the “correct” (i.e., socialist) socio‐economic structure is the true solution to alleged population problems. Such representations of Soviet thought greatly oversimplify the Soviet position as well as fail to discern the changes in Soviet thought that have been occurring. Since the 1960's Soviet writers have increasingly acknowledged that population growth is, to a considerable degree, independent of the economic base of society and that conscious population policies may be needed to either increase or decrease the rate of population growth. Even socialist societies can have population problems. And where population growth is too rapid, as in the developing countries, policies to slow such growth are needed because of the threat to economic development. However, the Soviets continue to stress that birth control policies must go hand‐in‐hand with social and economic development policies if they are to be effective.     

The International Migration of Nurses in Long-Term Care

This article describes five major factors that are affecting patterns of international migration among nurses who work in long-term care settings:

• Demographic drivers–The aging of the populations in developed countries and the low to negative growth in the working-age population will increase the demand for international workers to provide long-term care services.

• Gender and race–A dual labor market of long-term care workers, increasingly made up of women of color, is becoming internationalized by the employment of migrating nurses from developing countries.

• Credentialing–The process of credentialing skilled workers creates barriers to entry for migrating nurses and leads to “decredentialing” where registered nurses work as licensed practical nurses or aides.

• Colonial history and geography–The colonial histories of many European countries and the United States have increased migration from former colonies in developing countries to former colonial powers.

• Worker recruitment–Efforts to limit the recruitment of health care workers from some developing countries have had little effect on migration, in part because much of the recruitment comes through informal channels of family and friends.