How Do Voters Form Expectations about the Parties' Chances of Winning the Election?*

Objective. This article examines the factors that form voters' perceptions of the parties' chances of winning at both the national and the local levels. Method. We make use of the 1988 Canadian Election Study and we employ a HLM model to estimate the effect of individual‐level and contextual‐level variables. Results. It is shown that voters' expectations are affected by a combination of “objective” contextual information and personal preferences (projection effects). Conclusion. The basic contextual information that is utilized to ascertain local chances is the outcome of the previous election in the local constituency, whereas polls are crucial in the case of perceived national chances. We also find that the most politically aware are more strongly influenced by “objective” indicators.     

Thirty years of the Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism: A review of reviews

In the 30 or so years since the publication of Gosta Esping-Andersenapos;s Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism a number of rival welfare state typologies have emerged. This article has two broad aims. First, we review the reviews of welfare state typologies, pointing to issues of often unclear case selection and a wide range of concepts, variables, and methods, resulting in a variety of worlds of welfare and their constituent nations. We show that there is a great variety in the welfare modelling business at two different levels. Reviews vary significantly in terms of the number and composition of included studies, which has made it difficult to sum up the “state of the art.” Individual studies included in the reviews also vary significantly in terms of issues such as aims, concepts, variables, and methods. Second, we produce a new review, which adds value as it is based on a clearer search strategy, and includes more recent material that was not available in earlier reviews. This finds that there is a great variety in terms of process (concepts, variables, methods, and number of countries) and findings (the number and composition of “worlds”). We argue that the country classification seems to show less consensus that previous reviews, with fewer “pure” nations (i.e., agreement between studies). We suggest that in order to provide a clear point of engagement, future reviews need to pay more attention to a clear and explicit search strategy, including issues such as inclusion criteria.     

Norms and rationality. Is moral behavior a form of rational action?

This article addresses major arguments in the controversy about the “rationality” of moral behavior: can moral behavior be explained by rational choice theory (RCT)? The two positions discussed are the incentives thesis (norms are incentives as any other costs and benefits) and the autonomy thesis claiming that moral behavior has nothing to do with utility. The article analyses arguments for the autonomy thesis by J. Elster, A. Etzioni, and J. G. March and J. P. Olsen. Finally, the general claim is discussed whether norm following and norm emergence are utility maximizing. The conclusion is that the autonomy thesis is not tenable if one applies a wide subjectivist, social psychological version of RCT that includes the assumption of “bounded rationality.” The autonomy thesis is only compatible with a narrow version of RCT that excludes internal outcomes and that refers to norms that do not have external outcomes. It is argued that such a narrow version is not capable of explaining many forms of behavior social scientists are interested in.     

Drafting “better regulation”: The economic cost of regulatory complexity

Different public agencies are seeking to draft “better regulation”. Complex or poorly drafted norms are more difficult for economic agents to implement, tending to erode economic efficiency. The literature has so far concentrated on the analysis of regulatory complexity as a phenomenon related to the “quantity” of norms. This article guides the process of adopting new regulations, taking into account that norms can also be complex due to new “qualitative” reasons such as linguistic ambiguity or relational structure (references between legal documents). To perform the analysis, we develop new indicators for legibility and regulatory interconnectedness. Specifically, we construct a new database (RECOS – REgulation COmplexity in Spain) by extracting information from 8171 norms (61 million words) which comprise the regulations of all the Spanish Autonomous regions. Our analysis reveals the relationship between measures of “qualitative” complexity and relevant economic (productivity) and institutional (judicial efficacy) variables. This research shows that the new dimensions of regulatory complexity matter, yield significant results and should be taken into account in governments’ “better regulation” policies.     

文件治理中的政策采纳及其影响因素研究:基于国家和省级政府政策文本(2008—2018)数据

“文件治国”是中国国家治理的基本表现形态，不同中央政策在各地被采纳与实施的情况也是国家治理问题的核心研究议题。本文尝试突破以往政策扩散研究多只关注特定单项中央政策在各地扩散过程的局限，结合长时段大样本农村政策文本数据，对中央政府2008—2018年发布的多项农村政策在各地的扩散过程进行实证分析，相对系统地考察了中央层面的行政压力和经济激励，以及地方层面的执行能力和内在动力等因素及其交互作用对政策采纳的影响，进而对中国正式政策文件运作的基本过程和内在机制进行探讨。研究显示，自上而下的行政压力越大，经济激励越大，地方层面的执行能力越强，地方政府采纳中央农村政策的概率就越容易显著增加。从交互关系来看，中央政府对农村议题重视程度的提高会减小不同执行能力省份的政策采纳差异，也会减小不同经济激励政策的采纳差异。     

Addiction science and the perception of freewill

Do people think individuals with Substance Use Disorder (SUD) have freewill? How does addiction science inform views on the issue? We distinguish between two senses of freewill: 1) libertarian freewill , in which freedom turns on a particular metaphysical conception of action (sometimes operationalized as “could have done otherwise”), and 2) compatibilist freewill , in which freedom depends on the relation between the actor's psychology and her actions (e.g., “was the act what she wanted to do?”). We argue that, in different ways, scientific accounts can impact conceived freewill by linking addictive behavior to mechanisms that observers view as peripheral to the actor ( motivation modularity) . While a variety of impacts on conceived compatibilist freewill are plausible, we argue that contemporary addiction science has no direct bearing on conceived libertarian freewill. Addiction science may, however, indirectly impact conceived libertarian freewill by priming an explanatory framework in which intention is superfluous (especially materialism).     

Cross-country analyses don't estimate health-health responses

Health-Health analysis has attracted considerable attention as one way to evaluate the costs of regulatory policy to people. When a regulation is adopted to reduce the “risk” experienced by a particular group, health-health analysis seeks to evaluate when the indirect effects of an increase in prices or reduction in income offsets the direct effects intended by the regulation. If these indirect effects are large enough, then the general population can experience an increase in their overall risk. The article considers health-health analysis as it relates to policy decisions from conceptual and empirical perspectives. A comparative static analysis was a simple model is used to illustrate the factors influencing the relative effects of income and policy variables on risk. The empirical analysis also suggests that results with aggregate cross-country data and simple reduced-form models for the relationship of mortality to income are sensitive to model specifications and the sample composition.     

The preservation of multivariate comparative statics in nonexpected utility theory

This article investigates the preservation of multivariate expected utility comparative statics for “smooth” nonexpected utility representations. Specifically, we answer the following question: if an expected utility comparative statics property depends only on preferences over sure prospects, then when will a nonexpected utility maximizer with identical sure preferences also satisfy that property? We demonstrate that the effects of increased risk aversion are preserved under the “Almost Degenerate Independence” axiom, but that those of distribution changes of exogenous risks are not preserved under stringent assumptions. Hence, nonexpected utility comparative statics may diverge from expected utility, even for “first-order” properties—those whose effect is determinable from restrictions on “local” utility functions.     

Networks,case managers,and the job-search experiences of unemployed people

Employment services are commonly provided in network settings, but it is rare to find social policy analyses of how unemployed people search for jobs through networks. In a germinal analysis of social networks and employment, Mark Granovetter argued that “weak ties” (less familiar contacts) are more important to finding employment than are “strong ties” (family and friends). This is because weak ties provide more novel job-relevant information. Scholarship since Granovetter has predominantly supported the opposite argument, namely, that strong ties are more important for the unemployed, because they are more plentiful and thus provide more information in aggregate. Findings are also generally coloured by the focus being on “informal” networks or personal contacts. “Formal” networks, as represented most cogently by employment service providers, are absent or underestimated in most social network studies. On the basis of a qualitative study of 80 long-term unemployed people in Australia, incorporating analysis of both informal and formal networks, we argue that although “strong informal” ties are vital to job search, it is also important to consider “weak formal” ties, which can be complementary if and where service organizations are able to supply positive case management experiences.     

Abstracts

A burgeoning literature on narrative identity has emerged during the last decades simultaneously with a “performative turn” in the methodology of qualitative social research; both changes indicate a move away from the paradigm of “representation” that emphasizes linear and singular interpretation of “facts” and toward an acknowledgment of the complexity of the social world preferring a dialogic space, open for multiple interpretations and voices. This article aims to explicate how a nonrepresentational narrative stage performance, “We Are All the Same,” by a group of people who had suffered from mental illness opened up space that made transformation possible.     

The Influence of “Made in China” on the Great Moderation of the Global Economy：An Empirical Test Based on Value Chains*

We have collected data on China’s 22 main trading partners for 1984-2012 and used System GMM to study the influence of “Made in China” on the “Great Moderation” of the global economy. Our research shows that although trade scale, real effective exchange rate, oil prices, fixed capital investment and other variables have significantly expanded global economic volatility, “Made in China” has markedly restrained output growth rate fluctuations in countries around the world and price fluctuations in developed countries, helping the global economy develop with “high growth, low volatility.” “Made in China” is a long-term variable in the context of the global value chain. China needs to take advantage of global value chain restructuring to further upgrade and develop processing and manufacturing industry and expand its presence in the international market. It could choose to adopt a “mirror strategy” and launch trade sanctions targeting counterpart industries or enterprises to counter irrational trade sanctions from the developed countries. At the same time, however, it is important for China to make its own contribution to improve global economic governance and building a new international economic order in the era of global value chains by strengthening its policy coordination with other countries.     

Corporate Governance and Firm Performance: A Sociological Analysis Based on Chinese Experience

Based on the 1997-2007 panel data of 676 listed companies and in-depth interviews with the senior executives, independent directors, fund managers and securities analysts of these companies, this paper tries to analyze the relationship between corporate governance and firm performance from a sociological perspective. The results show that the relationship between corporate governance and firm performance in the Chinese institutional environment is sharply different from the predictions of the agency theory. The empirical findings from China lend strong support to the new institutional argument that “best” corporate governance practices are socially “constructed” by various social forces and interests groups in specific social, political and cultural contexts, and how “good” a corporate governance practice is depends to a large extent on whether it fits in with the institutional environment in which it is embedded. There exists no universally “best” model of corporate governance across the world. Our empirical sociological study based on Chinese experience offers new perspectives and evidence for deconstructing the global myth of corporate governance.     

Responsiveness to feedback as a personal trait

We investigate individual heterogeneity in the tendency to under-respond to feedback (“conservatism”) and to respond more strongly to positive compared to negative feedback (“asymmetry”). We elicit beliefs about relative performance after repeated rounds of feedback across a series of cognitive tests. Relative to a Bayesian benchmark, we find that subjects update on average conservatively but not asymmetrically. We define individual measures of conservatism and asymmetry relative to the average subject, and show that these measures explain an important part of the variation in beliefs and competition entry decisions. Relative conservatism is correlated across tasks and predicts competition entry both independently of beliefs and by influencing beliefs, suggesting it can be considered a personal trait. Relative asymmetry is less stable across tasks, but predicts competition entry by increasing self-confidence. Ego-relevance of the task correlates with relative conservatism but not relative asymmetry.     

On welfare effects of increasing retirement age

We develop an OLG model with realistic assumptions about longevity to analyze the welfare effects of raising the retirement age. We look at a scenario where an economy has a pay-as-you-go defined benefit scheme and compare it to a scenario with defined contribution schemes (funded or notional). We show that, initially, in both types of pension system schemes the majority of welfare effects comes from adjustments in taxes and/or prices. After the transition period, welfare effects are predominantly generated by the preference for smoothing inherent in many widely used models. We also show that although incentives differ between defined benefit and defined contribution systems, the welfare effects are of comparable magnitude under both schemes. We provide an explanation for this counter-intuitive result.     

Race,Political Empowerment,and Minority Perceptions of Judicial Fairness*

Objective. Recent studies of the impact of black elite electoral success on the system‐supporting attitudes of black citizens have yielded mixed, but generally unimpressive, empirical results. We extend this limited research by examining the effects of the presence of black judicial officials on public attitudes toward a state judicial system. Methods. We employ data from a telephone survey of citizens in Mississippi and develop multivariate models to test for the effects of black judges on citizens' evaluations of the fairness of judges, equity in sentences, and overall impartiality of the state judicial system. Results. We find no systematic evidence that the election of black judicial officials ameliorates the suspicions of the black public regarding the fairness of the state courts. Conclusions. Our findings are in line with other recent studies on the limited effects of black elite electoral success on the attitudes of the black public and generally support a “political reality” model of political trust rather than an “empowerment model.”     

Social Inequality under a New Social Contract: Long-term Care in Japan

The 1990s saw the beginning of new developments in the social policy agenda of Japan. A combination of further cuts in social expenditure and increases in financial resources through various means has become inevitable in response to the increasing cost burden of an ageing society, the prolonged recession and changes in the Japanese family. In this context, “kaigo hoken” (long‐term care insurance) was introduced in 2000 to increase revenue and fill the gap vacated by the family. The scheme introduced a different concept to the public: that long‐term care was no longer “expected’’ from the family or “allocated” by the state, but has become part of a “social contract” based upon a system of mandatory contributions, uniform entitlements and consumer choice. This paper first explores the role of the new scheme in creating social inequalities among individuals (and families). A panel survey is used to highlight different patterns of care provision and the varying degree of financial pressure among different income groups. Second, based on qualitative research, the paper examines how the new scheme has transformed the relationship between older people and their families who have played a central role in this arena. The scheme has consequently divided “traditional” families and their liberal counterparts, as a result of care work being “commodified”. It is apparent that this scheme has not only responded to fill the existing care gap but may also help accelerate the changes that have been taking place for the last two decades.     

The Drug‐Laden Balloon: U.S. Military Assistance and Coca Production in the Central Andes*

Objective. This article explores the empirical effects of U.S. drug policy on coca cultivation in the Central Andes. We assess the impact of U.S. military assistance on the production of coca in the Central Andes, while controlling for other explanatory variables that influence coca cultivation. Method. Using data from 1980–2001 for Colombia, Bolivia, and Peru, we perform a pooled cross‐sectional time‐series analysis. Results. The effects of U.S. military assistance on coca cultivation are not uniform across the Central Andes. Coca production decreased in Bolivia and Peru and increased in Colombia. Total coca production in the Central Andes, however, remained unchanged. Conclusion. This study is consistent with existing literature that points out the obstacles governments face as they attempt to suppress illicit goods. Specifically, our empirical findings support the idea of the “balloon effect,” whereby government efforts to “squeeze” illicit trade in one area result in the expansion of that trade elsewhere.     

Second‐Generation Immigrants? The “2.5 Generation” in the United States*

Objective. This article takes issue with the way that second‐generation immigrants have been traditionally defined. In most studies, respondents are considered to be “second generation” if they are born in the United States and if at least one of their parents was born outside the United States. This article considers whether the experiences and outcomes of those with one U.S.‐born parent and one foreign‐born parent (the “2.5 generation”) are different from those with no U.S.‐born parents (the “2.0 generation”) and those with two native‐born parents (the “third generation”). Methods. The article analyzes data from the March Current Population Survey (CPS) from 1999 to 2001. Results. The evidence indicates that the 2.5 generation is a numerically significant population, and that it varies from other groups in age structure, racial identification, educational attainment, and income. Conclusions. In studying the U.S.‐born children of immigrants, scholars should avoid lumping together the 2.5 generation with those who have no native‐born parents. The members of the 2.5 generation also should be treated as distinct from those born in the United States to two native‐born parents.     

Undergraduate Women in Science and Engineering: Effects of Faculty,Fields, and Institutions Over Time*

Objective. Taking an institutional approach to the determinants of outcomes for women in science and engineering, we examine the effects on women's percentages among undergraduate majors and among degree recipients of four basic factors: (1) the percentage of faculty who are women in the students' major science/engineering area; (2) the students' disciplines (biology, physical sciences, and engineering); (3) the type of institution in which students are enrolled (“Research I” vs. others); and (4) a time trend (1984–2000). Method. We use longitudinal, multivariate, and multi‐institutional data from the Integrated Postsecondary Data System (IPEDS) and from a mail survey of registrars. Results. Over the observation period, the women's percentages have risen steadily. The effects of disciplines and departments are stronger than those of institutions. Especially notable is that the percentages of women among undergraduate science/engineering majors and degree recipients are associated with the percentages of women among the faculty in these fields. Conclusion. The findings contribute empirically to the discussion about the effects of “role models” for the participation and performance of women in science and engineering—and point to the strong effects of departments, compared to institutions, in accounting for degrees awarded to undergraduate women.