Immigrants’ ages and the structure of stationary populations with below-replacement fertility

A sustained regime of low fertility plus immigration yields an unusual kind of stationary population. The author demonstrates that all stationary populations have a common structure, and that the familiar replacement-level fertility population is the youngest among the many stationary populations corresponding to a particular life table. This finding has important consequences for policy because although fertility increase and immigration are equally effective at halting population decline, immigration is inferior as a means of rejuvenating low-fertility populations. In fact, an immigration-based policy could make a low-fertility population older rather than younger. The paper includes examples using U.S. and West German vital rates.     

Model fertility schedules: variations in the age structure of childbearing in human populations

The nature of the roots for a set of fertility functions were explored in this study, resulting in tables from creation of a family of model fertility schedules. These model fertility schedules accurately represent the full range of age structures of fertility in large populations; they have close fit to various accurately recorded fertility schedules of very different form. The text for the tables includes discussions of: 1)the basis for the fertility schedules, 2)the age structure of the proportion ever married (G(a) specified by 2 parameters, 3)single parameter specified age structure of marital fertility, 4)the similarity of model schedules of age specific fertility to the age pattern of fertility in actual populations, 5)model fertility schedules' suitability during changing nuptuality. Possible uses of the schedules and their application to different countries (England, Wales, Peru) are also described.     

The patterns and causes of fertility differentials in the Sudan (with reference to nomadic and settled populations)

Abstract A demographic survey was undertaken in the Sudan for the purpose of studying fertility differentials between the nomadic and settled populations. In a previous publication the magnitude of these differentials was examined. The present paper examines the nature of the differentials and possible causes are then assessed. These causes are divided into two categories: those arising from the differential marriage patterns and those which are broadly termed 'medical and physiological'. Under the former heading it was found that larger proportions of nomadic women were still single, while those who had married had tended to do so at later ages, more had experienced broken marriages, and more were in polygamous marriages. Under the latter heading it was found that the nomadic women had experienced higher rates of pregnancy loss, appeared to show a high incidence of venereal disease and malaria, and tended to breast-feed their children for periods two to three times as long as the women in agricultural communities. Nutritional standards among the nomads were also substantially lower, and may well have affected fecundity.     

Adapting the Own Children Method to allow comparison of fertility between populations with different marriage regimes

The Own Children Method (OCM) is an indirect procedure for deriving age-specific fertility rates and total fertility from children living with their mothers at a census or survey. The method was designed primarily for the calculation of overall fertility, although there are variants that allow the calculation of marital fertility. In this paper we argue that the standard variants for calculating marital fertility can produce misleading results and require strong assumptions, particularly when applied to social or spatial subgroups. We present two new variants of the method for calculating marital fertility: the first of these allows for the presence of non-marital fertility and the second also permits the more robust calculation of rates for social subgroups of the population. We illustrate and test these using full-count census data for England and Wales in 1911.     

Aging in America: Limits to life span and elderly care options

Expanding longevity among the elderly and fertility decline are contributing to an aging US population. The number of persons 65 years or older is projected to double from about 32 million in 1990 to 66 million by 2030; the elderly proportion is expected to increase from 13 to 22 percent over the same period. Chronic illness and functional disability afflicts a significant proportion of older persons. An estimated 80–85 percent of people over age 65 have at least one chronic illness, and nearly one-half of older people report that chronic illness limits their activity to some degree. Altogether, about one-third of the population over 65 may need some kind of medical or social assistance. This paper discusses the three primary modes of care available to older persons: (1) the informal network of the family, (2) the more formal arrangements of home and community care, and (3) the institutionalized care of nursing homes. Of particular policy interest are the questions: Who provides the care? What type of care is available? Who receives the care? How much does each type of care cost? and Who pays? The current patterns and costs especially of long-term care provide a framework for planning future options. A discussion of research and policy recommendations concludes the paper.     

From natural fertility to family limitation: The onset of fertility transition in a sample of German villages

Utilizing data from a sample of German village genealogies, it is possible to document the changes in reproductive patterns on the family level that started to take place in Germany during the nineteenth century and formed the basis for the secular decline in fertility which eventually encompassed the entire country. One striking finding from this study was the substantial diversity among the small sample of villages in terms of the timing of the emergence of family limitation. While couples in all villages who married during the last half of the eighteenth century appeared to be characterized predominantly by natural fertility the emergence of family limitation began as early as the turn of the nineteenth century in some places and as late as the end of the nineteenth century in others. Occupational differentials with respect to family limitation were also examined. There is little evidence that changes in birth spacing played an important part in the initial phase of the fertility trnsition. Rather, the underlying process appears to involve a change from fertility patterns that were characterized by the absence of parity-dependent control to one in which attempts to terminate childbearing in response to the number of children already born becomes widespread.     

From low to high fertility in Sulawesi (Indonesia) during the colonial period: explaining the 'first fertility transition'

This paper examines the past transition from low to high fertility which, in Indonesia as elsewhere, preceded the return to lower birth rates. Data from two parts of the island of Sulawesi where fertility rose during the colonial period are used to explain both why it rose, and why it was originally low. Economic conditions, it is argued, were the most important factors, affecting fertility via the supply of income and the demand for labour. Two schematic models of the 'first fertility transition' are proposed. In areas with low population densities and area-extensive forms of agriculture responsive to commercial stimuli, birth rates rose as the growth of commerce raised levels of prosperity, facilitated marriage, and undermined institutions such as debt-slavery which had previously acted to restrict marital fertility. In densely populated areas with labour-intensive agriculture and heavy state taxation in labour, fertility rose in response to demands for women's (and possibly child) labour that did not necessarily lead to gains in income.     

Determinants of fertility and the unmet need for family planning in Indonesia

Indonesia's fertility has declined to an average of slightly more than 3 children/woman. The islands of Java and Bali have the lowest birth rates. Indonesia's family planning program has been a model of innovation, flexibility, and community involvement, and has been effective in reducing fertility, changing family preferences, and increasing contraceptive use. Fertility decline is also determined by factors other than contraceptive use, as provinces in Jakarta and East Java has low fertility and low contraceptive use. Recent research by Suyono and Palmore found that among cohorts of women in Jakarta lowest fertility rates were explained by greater nonexposure to pregnancy in an unmarried state or by a divorced or widowed status, and by infecundity. In East Java, fertility determinants were the same with the possible addition of lower coital frequency. The study estimated nonexposure due to marriage, infecundity, and contraceptive use. Policy considerations, however, are concerned with the exposed state of the percentage of time women are currently married, fecund, not using contraceptive, and sexually active. Suyono and Palmore also calculated the percentage of time spent in the exposed state by province. The estimates ranged from 12% in Yogyakarta to 25% in West Java and the Outer Islands. Exposed was further divided into groups with a manifest, latent, and no current need. Women with a manifest need for family planning are those who are aware of their contraceptive needs to stop or postpone childbearing and not using. Manifest need was highest in high fertility areas: 12% in Central Java, 13% in West Java, and 12% in the Outer Islands. Programs targeting these women should focus on wider availability of information and services. Women with latent needs are unaware of their need for family planning and are not using contraception. These women were also concentrated in high fertility areas. The percentage of years spent in the latent unmet need state was estimated at 23-24% in West Java and the Outer Islands. Program emphasis should be on education and motivation to show how family size can be controlled. Women with current need can be educated toward future acceptance.     

After the demographic transition: policy responses to low fertility in four Asian countries

In the low fertility countries of South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Thailand, policy-makers are concerned about the consequences of low growth. In South Korea, a family planning (FP) program was instituted in the early 1960s, and fertility declined to 1.6 by 1987. Rural fertility is still higher at 1.96, and abortion rates are high. 32.2% of fertility reduction is accomplished through abortion. South Korean population will not stabilize until 2021, at 50.6 million people. The elderly are expected to increase and strain housing, energy, and land resources. Government support for FP is being reduced, while private sector services are being enhanced. Government sterilization programs have been reduced significantly, and revisions in the Medical Insurance Law will cover part of contraceptive cost. Integrated services are being established. Many argue for an emphasis on birth spacing, child and family development, sex education, and care of the elderly. In Taiwan, replacement level fertility was reached in 1983. Policy in 1992 recommended increasing fertility from 1.6 to 2.1. The aim was to stabilize population without pronatalist interventions. Regardless of policy decisions, population growth will continue over the next 40 years, and the extent of aging will increase. In Singapore since the 1960s, the national government focused on encouraging small families through fertility incentives, mass media campaigns, and easy access to FP services. Fertility declined to 1.4 in 1988. Since 1983, government has established a variety of pronatalist incentives. In 1989, fertility increased to 1.8. The pronatalist shift is viewed as not likely to succeed in dealing with the concern for an adequate work force to support the elderly and economic development. In Thailand, fertility declined the fastest to 2.4 in 1993. The key factors were rapid economic and social development, a supportive cultural setting, strong demand for fertility control, and a successful FP program. The goal is to reduce fertility to 1.2 by 1996. Replacement level may be reached in 2000 or 2005. Future trends are not clear.     

关于中国1990年代低生育水平的再讨论

本文根据全国第五次人口普查样本计算了 1 990年代各年份的分性别平均初婚年龄 ,这一结果再次表明这一时期中初婚年龄有显著提高。本文还根据以往历次调查的各年份年龄别生育率按队列计算了累计生育率 ,结果发现 2 0 0 0年时各队列的累计生育率水平高于五普数据中各队列的平均活产子女数。本文还就队列累计生育率计算结果详细分析了 1 990年代终身生育水平的趋势。这些分析从一个新的角度说明 ,1 990年代各队列的终身生育水平也在发生显著的下降 ,正在接近现行生育政策所要求的水平     

Differential fertility and family limitation in an urban community of Uttar Pradesh

The study relates to an investigation of the fertility pattern of a sample of 1018 wives drawn from Lucknow and Kanpur, the two biggest cities of Uttar Pradesh. The sample is stratified with respect to religion and caste, and income. It reveals significant inter-community differences, Muslims and low-caste Hindus showing nearly equal fertility, and high-caste Hindus and Christians showing comparatively lower levels. The proportion of small families (three children or less) is obviously higher in groups with lower fertility, but there is a wide measure of dispersion in each group. Fertility is seen to decline with a rise in income, but not until we cross the income level of Rs 300 per month. Consistent with the differential trends in fertility, striking variations are also observed in the extent of contraceptive practice in different groups. Groups with lower fertility also show a higher frequency of birth control. Birth controllers have lower fertility than the non-controllers, and birth control appears to play a not inconsequential rôle in causing differential trends in fertility.     

A model of the age patterns of births by parity in natural fertility populations

This research develops a convolution model to express the age patterns of fertility at each birth order in natural fertility populations in terms of six parameters, directly representing the proximate determinants of fertility, and a series of parity level indicators. The parity level indicators at each birth order are simply the proportions of women in a cohort who will eventually have births at each birth order it the age‐related fecundity decline is controlled. The Coale‐McNeil nuptiality model is adopted to represent the age pattern of first marriage rates and the natural fertility schedule employed in the Coale‐Trussell fertility model is incorporated to adjust age effects. The fast Fourier transform is used in solving the model numerically. It proves that the model is able to provide excellent fits to fertility for rural Chinese women in the 1950s.     

An analysis of the size of the family household and family structure in China]

Since 1949, great social and economic changes have taken place in China. The entire economic structure and social relations are no longer the way they used to be. These changes have also had a strong impact on the size of family households and family structure. Major changes are summarized as follows: (1) The size of the present family household has been greatly reduced from its earlier size. The main reason for this reduction in size is the change of the social system. Under the new social system, the natural population growth rate and family structure have shown the greatest change from the past. (2) The major change in family structure is that small families have replaced the traditional large families. Under the large family system, several generations may stay together as one household, and brothers do not divide the large family even after they are married. Under the small family system, a household is normally limited to the parents and their children. With the gradual disappearance of large families, small families are increasing rapidly. Some households with three generations living together are still in existence, and the young and the old may support each other in their daily life. Both in cities and in rural areas, the traditional custom of respecting one's old parents still exists. There must be a value and necessity for the existence of this particular kind of family structure.     

生育的外部性与计划生育利益导向

本文通过对我国生育正、负外部性的分析,指出政府在计划生育工作中应重点建立健全利益导向机制,提出了相应的对策。     

Women in the workforce and family structure in Australia

The purpose of this paper is to set out some of the changes that have taken place in the economic status of women in Australia and to discuss the relationship between economic factors and family structure. I look at the position of women in the workforce and examine some of the possible explanations for the increase in female participation. These include the increase in the female wage, demographic changes and changes in the industrial composition of the economy. In a final section, I examine some of the evidence for the effect of economic variables, particularly the wage, on fertility. I would like to thank Bob Gregory, Bruce Chapman, George Fane, Francis Teal and the Journal’s referees for valuable comments on an earlier draft. All responsibility for remaining errors is mine.     

对我国未来“内生型”极低生育率水平的预警分析

本文通过对世界“内生型”极低生育率国家和地区的生育率主要影响因素分析,采用横截面替代方法得出了在极低生育率条件下生育率影响因素的替代系数,并对我国生育意愿达到“内生型”极低生育率的时间进行了估测,为我国调整生育政策避免进入“逆马尔萨斯”陷阱的人口危机做出了预警,并结合实际对我国生育政策微调提出了相关建议。     

Industrialization,family and fertility: A structural-psychological analysis of the Brazilian case

This paper addresses itself to some linkages between macro-social structure (industrialization, social class), social psychological variables (husband-wife decision making), psychological variables (attitudes), and fertility. A total of 726 currently mated women with proven fertility in five Brazilian communities were interviewed to determine various attitudes, their work experience, their participation in family decisions, their fertility ideals, and actual fertility. The five communities were selected along a rural-urban-industrialization continuum to include a village, two non-industrial cities, and two industrial cities (one of which was Sao Paulo). Family size in the industrial cities was small in all social strata, while in the non-industrial cities family size was large in the lower strata and declined in the upper strata. Further analysis revealed that smaller family size is associated with generally higher levels of status among women—higher educational levels, greater social contacts and more skilled employment, and equality in family decision making. Our analysis supports the hypotheses that industrialization influences fertility through shifts in the social status of women, both in their work and at home. New education and work opportunities facilitate the emergence of modern conceptions of the role of women in society and egalitarian decision making in the family. These attitudes and patterns of husband-wife interaction are related to smaller family size ideals and lower fertility.     

On the use of the truncated Gompertz distribution and other models to represent the parity progression functions of high fertility populations

The Gompertz distribution, developed from the mortality “law”; long used by actuaries and demographers promises to be a useful distribution for many other demographic purposes as well. The continuous distribution can also be adapted to represent discrete data commonly encountered in demographic work, and maximum likelihood estimates of the two parameters are easily calculated using formulae developed in this paper, whether those data be continuous or discrete, truncated below or provided with observations in a final open‐ended interval.

The distribution is unimodel. The use of the truncated form of the distribution, however, allows the researcher to fit it to a wider range of observed distributions, including many for which the density function is monotonic decreasing.

Empirical studies using parity progression data of two high fertility populations indicate that the truncated Gompertz distribution in its discrete form provides a good overall picture of the parity distribution. Interestingly, the simple method of partial sums, commonly employed to fit the Gompertz function, appears to provide parameter estimates which are close to those estimated by maximum likelihood.