Trends in and determinants of outcomes in multi-union certification elections

We use data on 68,000 single-union and 3,600 multi-union elections during the years 1977–1994 to investigate factors influencing outcomes of multi-union elections. We find that, even though the win rate is much higher in multi-union as opposed to singleunion elections, the factors influencing the outcomes are surprisingly similar.     

The changing scope of union organizing

This paper presents a profile of the change in the scope of union organizing and provides empirical support for the numerous observations about the declining importance of jurisdictions in the selection of organizing targets. The scope of organizing is measured in terms of the distributions of the NLRB certification elections of 18 selected unions for 1973–1975 and 1983–1985. Diversity and concentration in organizing and its impact on election outcome are examined. The authors thank Azia Merchant for his assistance.     

Determinants of the decertification process: Evidence from employer-initiated elections

There have been relatively few studies on why workers choose to decertify a union as their bargaining unit and virtually no empirical studies on the outcomes of employer-initiated representation elections. Using data from the NLRB monthly election reports (1977–1981), we attempt to analyze the factors that seem to influence the outcomes of employer-initiated representation elections with an incumbent union. Variables in our analysis include size of the election unit, region, industrial classification, type of incumbent union, and the state of the local economy. While the data show a concentration of elections on the West Coast, there is no significant difference in the ability of unions there to “win” decertification elections.     

Majority voting rules and the union success rate in national labor relations board representation elections

This paper simulates how the union success rate in representation elections would be affected if the NLRB reverted from its current simple-majority voting rule to its original majority-in-unit voting rule. Such a rule change would have altered 21 percent of decertification and 16 percent of certification victories over the period 1977–81, resulting in the loss of 180,400 actual or potential bargaining unit members for the union movement. Abstentions play an important role in election outcomes. Under the present voting rule unions have no clear advantage to “get out the vote” in decertification elections, but a clear disadvantage in certification elections. Under a majority-in-unit rule unions hold an advantage when they “get out the vote” in all representation elections. I would like to thank Mike Bognanno, Jim Dworkin, Paul Schumann, two reviewers, and the editor for helpful comments and David Wilson for excellent research assistance. I would also like to thank the NLRB for providing the election data tape.     

The effects of management practices on union election returns

This paper examines the importance of management suppression tactics on union activity in the United States. NLRB data on individual certification elections which have recently become available for the period 1972–1976 are merged with structural, demographic, and industry characteristics of the 96 largest SMSAs to ascertain the role of strategy versus structure in explaining union outcomes. The measures of election-generated membership outcomes are voter participation, the margin of pro-union votes, and union wins. Union suppression practices under study include consent elections, election delays, formal objections after unions win a certification election, elections overruled because of management unfair labor practices, elections held by management petition, and the number of unfair labor practice charges per representation election. Five of the six measures of suppression are significant determinants of some facet of union expansion after adjusting for structural characteristics of the area work force.     

How international trade affects union wages: New evidence

We reexamine the effect of import competition on union wages using the NBER Industry Data for Imports and Exports by SIC category 1987– 1994 (Feenstra, 1996). We find that the effect of import share on union wage levels and wage growth is zero by the end of the twelve-year period covering 1983– 1994. These results suggest that although import competition initially reduced union wages in the late 1970s and early 1980s, by 1987 union wages were largely unaffected by import competition. Apparently, the diminished import effect results from increased union strength over the period, particularly in highly organized industries. The authors appreciate the comments of Barry T. Hirsch and Wm. S. Mounts. David Macpherson aided in the development of our CPS data sets.     

Mindfulness and Cognitive Therapy in Depression Relapse Prevention: A Case Study

Depression is the most commonly diagnosed mental illness in the United States with relapse rates as high as 80–90% in some circumstances (Chen et al. in Res Soc Work Pract 16(5): 500–510, 2006; Mintz et al. in Arch Gen Psychiatry 49: 761–768, 1992; Teasdale et al. in J Consult Clin Psychol 68(4): 615–623, 2000). Cognitive therapy (CT) and psychopharmacology have been the mainstays of treatment for depression and relapse prevention, yet relapse remains a significant risk of this mental illness (DeRubeis et al. in Arch Gen Psychiatry 62: 409–416, 2005; Meyer and Scott in Behav Cogn Psychother 36: 685–693 2008; Rush et al. in Cognit Ther Res 1: 17–37, 1977). The literature review, case illustration and analysis examines the rationale for integrating mindfulness practice, and demonstrates the application of this practice in conjunction with cognitive therapy to reduce the risk of relapse in Major Depression.     

Unmeasured skills in inter-industry wage differentials: Evidence from the apparel industry

Several recent studies have used first-differenced models to test the unmeasured-skills hypothesis with mixed results. I use matched-panel data from the CPSfrom 1983–1995 and retrospective data from the DWS from 1984–1992 to test for the possible effect of unmeasured skill on apparel workers’wages. The apparel industry provides a better test of the unmeasured-skills hypothesis than the overall economy because the likelihood of noncompetitive distortions to the wage is small. My results indicate that between 64 and 80 percent of the apparel industry differential is caused by skills unmeasured in standard OLS regressions, suggesting competitive wages for workers moving between apparels and other industries. The author appreciates the helpful suggestions from Barry Hirsch and William Stewart Mounts, Jr. The CPS and DWS data sets used in this paper were provided by Barry Hirsch and David Macpherson.     

The effect of unions on professors’ salaries: The evidence over twenty years

No study has recently examined how unions affect professors’ salaries. In the only studies using micro-level data, both Ashraf (1992) and Barbezat (1989) used data from 1977. I update earlier work by using data from 1988. In conjunction with data from 1969 and 1977, the effect of faculty unions over a twenty-year period is examined. While faculty at unionized colleges earned significantly less than their counterparts at nonunion institutions in 1969, they earned marginally more in 1977 and 1988. The author is currently on leave from the University of West Florida and is serving as Professor and Vice-President of the Textile University of Pakistan. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Southern Economic Association meetings in New Orleans, November 21–23, 1993. The author thanks some of the participants for very useful suggestions.     

The spatial model with non-policy factors: a theory of policy-motivated candidates

The theoretical literature on two candidate elections is dominated by symmetric contests and vote-maximizing candidates. These models fail to capture two important features of real elections. First, most elections pit a stronger candidate against a weaker one. Second, candidates care not only about holding office, but also about policy outcomes. Ignoring any one of these features means we will fail to capture an important dynamic—strong candidates must balance their desire to change policy with their need to win the election. We provide conditions for the existence of an equilibrium in the spatial model with non-policy factors, when candidates are policy motivated. We provide a characterization of ‘regular’ equilibria and show that there exists at most one regular equilibrium. We provide conditions that guarantee that all equilibria are regular. We derive comparative statics for the model and show that increasing a candidate’s non-policy advantage causes that candidate to move towards his ideal point.     

Campaign Activities and Electoral Outcomes in Britain 1979 and 1983

Political broadcasting through the electronic media has largelydisplaced two older methods of influencing voters—canvassingand advertising in the press—as the dominant party campaignactivity during elections. This article utilizes survey datacollected during the 1979 and 1983 British general electionsto estimate the reported effects of these three types of campaignactivity on electoral outcomes. The results show that few votersreport being influenced by canvassing and advertising, and thenet effect on the vote is either small or nonexistent. By contrast,around 1 in 6 report being influenced by a party political broadcast,and those most influenced are eventual Liberal-Alliance voters.The net electoral effect of political broadcasting can rangeas high as 3.4 percent, but gains for the Conservatives andLabour are offset by the political broadcasting of competitors.The main exceptions are the Liberals in 1979 and the Alliancein 1983, who made a net gain of 1.5 percent and 3.3 percentof the vote, respectively.     

On the selection of the same winner by all scoring rules

Different scoring rules can result in the selection of any of the k competing candidates, given the same preference profile, (Saari DG 2001, Chaotic elections! A mathematician looks at voting. American Mathematical Society, Providence, R.I.). It is also possible that a candidate, and even a Condorcet winning candidate, cannot be selected by any scoring rule, (Saari DG 2000 Econ Theory 15:55–101). These findings are balanced by Saari’s result (Saari DG 1992 Soc Choice Welf 9(4):277–306) that specifies the necessary and sufficient condition for the selection of the same candidate by all scoring rules. This condition is, however, indirect. We provide a sufficient condition that is stated directly in terms of the preference profile; therefore, its testability does not require the verdict of any voting rule.     

Discrete choice models of labour supply,behavioural microsimulation and the Spanish tax reforms

The aim of the present study is to show the potential of behavioural microsimulation models as powerful tools for the ex ante evaluation of public policies. We analyse the impact of recent Spanish income tax reforms upon efficiency and household and social welfare and study the effects of various (basic-income and vital-minimum) flat tax schemes. The analysis is performed using a microsimulation model in which labour supply is explicitly taken into account. Instead of following the traditional continuous approach (Hausman, Labour supply, Aaron and Pechman (eds.), How Taxes Affect Economic Behaviour, The Brooking Institution, Washington, DC, 1981; Econometrica, 53: 1255–1282, 1985; Taxes and labour supply, Auerbach and Feldstein, (eds.), Handbook of Public Economics, North-Holland, Amsterdam, vol. 1, 1979), we estimate the direct utility function employing the methodology proposed by Aaberge et al. (Scand. J. Econ., 97: 635–659, 1995) and Van Soest (J. Hum. Resour., 30: 63–88, 1995). We maintain population heterogeneity by applying a social welfare analysis to the complete sample, rather than merely focusing on the active population. The source of our data is a sample of Spanish individuals in the 1995 wave of the EC Household Panel. We find that the redistribution policies considered have only had a minor impact on economic efficiency but, by contrast, have significantly affected social welfare. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Employer unfair labor practices and union organizing activity: A simultaneous equation model

A model is estimated that simultaneously determines the extent of alleged employer unfair labor practices and the outcomes of union organizing activity using biennial, state-level data for 1968–1982. The results suggest that employers are unlikely to use ULPs as a union-avoidance strategy when unions are expected to win representation elections and that the extent of employer ULPs depends on legislative, industrial relations, and workplace characteristics within a state. ULPs also increase the likelihood that workers will choose union representation. I am indebted to John W. Ballantine, Frederick W. Cleveland, Gil Rutman, and Leo Troy for their comments on earlier versions of this paper. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Reports of Wins and Risk Taking: An Investigation of the Mediating Effect of the Illusion of Control

Two experiments examined the relationships between the knowledge that another person has won in a gamble, the illusion of control and risk taking. Participants played a computer-simulated French roulette game individually. Before playing, some participants learnt that another person won a large amount of money. Results from a first experiment (n = 24) validated a causal model where the knowledge of another person’s win increased the illusion of control, measured with betting times, expectancy and self-reports on scales, which in turn encourages risk taking. In the second experiment (n = 36), some participants were told the previous player acknowledged the win to be fortuitous. The suppression of the belief that the previous winner had himself exerted control over the outcome resulted in lower rates of risk-taking behaviors. This suggests that it was not the knowledge of another person’s win in itself that increased risk taking, but rather, the belief that the other person had some control over the gamble’s outcome. Theoretical implications for the study of social mechanisms involved in gambling behavior are discussed.     

The paradox of multiple elections

Assume that voters must choose between voting yes (Y) and voting no (N) on three propositions on a referendum. If the winning combination is NYY on the first, second, and third propositions, respectively, the paradox of multiple elections is that NYY can receive the fewest votes of the 2³ = 8 combinations. Several variants of this paradox are illustrated, and necessary and sufficient conditions for its occurrence, related to the “incoherence” of support, are given. The paradox is shown, via an isomorphism, to be a generalization of the well-known paradox of voting. One real-life example of the paradox involving voting on propositions in California, in which not a single voter voted on the winning side of all the propositions, is given. Several empirical examples of variants of the paradox that manifested themselves in federal elections – one of which led to divided government – and legislative votes in the US House of Representatives, are also analyzed. Possible normative implications of the paradox, such as allowing voters to vote directly for combinations using approval voting or the Borda count, are discussed. Received: 31 July 1996 / Accepted: 1 October 1996     

Identifying habitat sinks: a case study of Cooper’s hawks in an urban environment

We studied a population of Cooper’s hawks (Accipiter cooperii) in Tucson, Arizona from 1994 to 2005. High rates of mortality of nestlings from an urban-related disease prompted speculation that the area represented an ecological trap and habitat sink for Cooper’s hawks. In this paper, we used estimates of survival and productivity from 11years of monitoring to develop an estimate of the rate of population change, λ, for Cooper’s hawks in the area. We used a Cormack–Jolly–Seber approach to estimate survival of breeding hawks, and a stochastic, stage-based matrix to estimate λ. Despite the urban-related disease, the estimate of λ indicated that the area does not function as a habitat sink for Cooper’s hawks (= 1.11 ± 0.047; P = 0.0073 for the null of λ ≤ 1). Because data required to reliably identify habitat sinks are extensive and difficult to acquire, we suggest that the concept of habitat sinks be applied cautiously until substantiated with reliable empirical evidence.     

Modeling the Development of Infant Categorization

Research on infant categorization has made remarkable progress since the first studies were reported in the late 1970s (e.g., Cohen & Caputo, 1978; Cohen & Strauss, 1977; Strauss, 1979). This progress is evident in a recent volume on early categorization and concept acquisition (Rakison & Oakes, 2003), the first half of which is devoted entirely to theory and research on infant categorization. Even in the early days of such research an important distinction was made between demonstration‐oriented studies and process‐oriented studies (Cohen & Younger, 1983; Younger & Cohen, 1985). Demonstration studies simply presented infants with established category items (by adult standards) such as pictures of stuffed animals, faces, dogs, cats, animals, or vehicles and examined whether infants would generalize their responding to novel members of the same category. Process studies, on the other hand, presented infants with novel categories and manipulated feature values of category items to examine the mechanisms underlying infant category acquisition.     

Electoral Context,Issues, and Voting for Women in the 1990s

Abstract

This research hypothesizes that, because of the particular stimulation provided by the focus on candidate sex and gender-related issues in the electoral environment, there was a unique set of demographic and attitudinal variables related to voting for a woman candidate for the House of Representatives in 1992. Because the environments of the elections of 1994 and 1996 were relatively “gender-free,” these variables were not related to voting behavior in these years. The analysis supports the hypothesis that the determinants of support for women congressional candidates are different in 1992 than in subsequent elections. It also suggests that the differing environments of the three elections may be a contributing factor to these differences.     

The tournament careers of top-ranked men and women tennis professionals: Are the gentlemen more committed than the ladies?

We ask whether top-ranked male tennis professionals are more dedicated or commit-ted to their careers than the top-ranked female professionals. We find no evidence that this is the case in the 1979–1994 period. Despite substantially lower real earnings, the women pros competed for as many years as did the men and just as intensely in terms of annual number of tournaments played.