Who Evacuates When Hurricanes Approach? The Role of Risk,Information, and Location*

Objective. This article offers an expanded perspective on evacuation decision making during severe weather. In particular, this work focuses on uncovering determinants of individual evacuation decisions. Methods. We draw on a survey conducted in 2005 of residents in the eight‐county Houston metropolitan area after Hurricane Rita made landfall on September 24, 2005. Results. We find that evacuation decisions are influenced by a heterogeneous set of parameters, including perceived risk from wind, influence of media and neighbors, and awareness of evacuation zone, that are often at variance with one of the primary measures of risk used by public officials to order or recommend an evacuation (i.e., storm surge). We further find that perceived risk and its influence on evacuation behavior is a local phenomenon more readily communicated by and among individuals who share the same geography, as is the case with residents living inside and outside official risk areas. Conclusions. Who evacuates and why is partially dependent on where one lives because perceptions of risk are not uniformly shared across the area threatened by an approaching hurricane and the same sources and content of information do not have the same effect on evacuation behavior. Hence, efforts to persuade residential populations about risk and when, where, and how to evacuate or shelter in place should originate in the neighborhood rather than emanating from blanket statements from the media or public officials. Our findings also raise important policy questions (included in the discussion section) that require further study and consideration by those responsible with organizing and implementing evacuation plans.     

Testing the ‘standard’ model of stochastic choice under risk

Models of stochastic choice are intended to capture the substantial amount of noise observed in decisions under risk. We present an experimental test of one model, which many regard as the default—the Basic Fechner model. We consider one of the model’s key assumptions—that the noise around the subjective value of a risky option is independent of other features of the decision problem. We find that this assumption is systematically violated. However the main patterns in our data can be accommodated by a more recent variant of the Fechner model, or within the random preference framework.     

Decision,irreversibility and flexibility: The irreversibility effect re-examined

In a seminal article C. Henry (1974) presented the irreversibility effect, which pointed out that under uncertainty, the optimal sequence of decisions depends on not only the payoffs, but also the flexibility, in terms of availability of future options, associated with each decision. But the irreversibility effect pertained to certain particular conditions and definitions. In this paper, a more general model is developed to re-examine the notion of an irreversible decision, its relation with flexibility and the irreversibility effect. It is shown through two propositions that the irreversibility effect need not hold always and the notion of irreversibiity can be used only under certain circumstances to derive the optimal sequence of decisions ex-ante.     

What Makes a Good Decision? Robust Satisficing as a Normative Standard of Rational Decision Making

Most decisions in life involve ambiguity, where probabilities can not be meaningfully specified, as much as they involve probabilistic uncertainty. In such conditions, the aspiration to utility maximization may be self‐deceptive. We propose “robust satisficing” as an alternative to utility maximizing as the normative standard for rational decision making in such circumstances. Instead of seeking to maximize the expected value, or utility, of a decision outcome, robust satisficing aims to maximize the robustness to uncertainty of a satisfactory outcome. That is, robust satisficing asks, “what is a ‘good enough’ outcome,” and then seeks the option that will produce such an outcome under the widest set of circumstances. We explore the conditions under which robust satisficing is a more appropriate norm for decision making than utility maximizing.     

Risk taking on behalf of others: The role of social distance

Individuals take decisions on behalf of others in many different contexts. In this paper, we focus on lotteries with negative expected value and study if (and how) risky choices made on behalf of another person differ i) compared to decisions which do not affect anyone else, and ii) depending on the social distance between who makes the decision and who is affected by it. Our results show that social distance (i.e., whether the person affected by one’s decision is an unknown stranger or a friend) is an important determinant when people decide on behalf of others. Moreover, when deciding on behalf of a friend rather than only for themselves or a stranger, average individual behavior is closer to expected value maximization, exhibiting less risk taking. These findings suggest that responsibility for others’ outcome and the empathy gap affect the decision making process, particularly when the social distance is shortened. The results are robust to different feedback frequencies. Controlling for order effects shows that experiencing a decrease in social distance is crucial in activating this mechanism.     

How Do Information Ambiguity and Timing of Contextual Information Affect Managers’ Goal Congruence in Making Investment Decisions in Good Times vs. Bad Times?

Information ambiguity is prevalent in organizations and may influence management decisions. This study draws upon research on information bias and ambiguity research to empirically test how information ambiguity and non-financial factors (e.g., interpersonal information) affect managers’ capital budgeting decisions when in good vs. bad times. Ninety-two managers completed two experiments. In Experiment One, the information was presented sequentially. Our results show that without the presence of non-financial factors, managers tend to maximize the firm value. After receiving non-financial factors, a significant number of managers switched to the self-serving option in good times (the gain condition) but stayed with firm-value maximization in bad times (the loss condition). In Experiment Two, the information was presented simultaneously in the presence and absence of ambiguity. We found that in the presence of ambiguity, the information presentation has no impact on managers’ self-serving bias in good times or their firm-value maximization tendency in bad times. Interestingly, we also observed managers’ use of interpersonal information even in the absence of ambiguity.JEL Classification: D8     

The price for information about probabilities and its relation with risk and ambiguity

In this article, ambiguity attitude is measured through the maximum price a decision maker is willing to pay to know the probability of an event. Two problems are examined in which the decision maker faces an act: in one case, buying information implies playing a lottery, while, in the other case, buying information gives also the option to avoid playing the lottery. In both decision settings, relying on the Choquet expected utility model, we study how the decision maker??s risk and ambiguity attitudes affect the reservation price for ambiguity resolution. These effects are analyzed for different levels of ambiguity of the act. Operating instructions for the elicitation of the reservation price for ambiguity resolution in an experimental setting are provided at the end of the article.     

Foster care assessment: an exploratory study of the placement assessment process in Flanders and the Netherlands

Family foster care placement decision‐making has a weak scientific underpinning. The identification of clusters of foster children (groups of foster children with similar characteristics) can help improve decision quality. In this study, we investigated if foster children could indeed be clustered, which problems were identified at the time of placement and what might be the influence of placement history. Two clusters of foster children were found: (i) young children with coinciding parental child‐rearing incapacity and familial problems, and (ii) older children with child problems. At the time of placement, familial problems were more often identified in younger children with a placement history. These findings stress the importance of approaching foster care assessment as part of a dynamic decision‐making process. It is key to finding the most appropriate situation for the child. At the same time, it must be decided how the desired situation can be realized, wherein placement decisions are based on an appraisal of whether or not a foster placement is an appropriate solution. In conjunction with this, it needs to be decided how the parents can be supported towards reunification, or whether or not long‐term foster care is the best option for the child, and if so what conditions need to be met.     

Effects of Outcome and Probabilistic Ambiguity on Managerial Choices

Information ambiguity is prevalent in organizations and likely influences management decisions. This study examines, given imprecise probabilities and outcomes, how managers make choices when they are provided with single-figure benchmarks. Seventy-nine MBA students completed two experiments. We found that, in a decision framed as a decision under certainty involving an ambiguous outcome, the majority of the subjects were ambiguity prone in the loss condition and switched to ambiguity aversion in the gain condition. However, in the presence of probabilistic ambiguity in a decision under risk, this expected switching pattern was shown only when the difference in riskiness between the two choice options (in the loss condition) was perceived to be relatively small. In a companion study, we used a written protocol approach to identify factors that affect decision makers' investment choices when faced with ambiguous outcomes. Protocols frequently mentioned that the ambiguous outcome option was risky, even in the case which was framed as a decision under certainty in the problem statement. In a decision under risk with ambiguous outcomes, the combination of probabilistic risk and outcome ambiguity was seen as even more risky.     

Private Information and the ‘Information Function’: A Survey of Possible Uses

Under certain conditions private information can be a source of trade. Arbitrage for instance can occur as a result of the existence of private information. In this paper we want to explicitly model information. To do so we define an ‘information function’. This information function is a mathematical object, also known as a so called ‘wave function’. We use the definition of wave function as it is used in quantum mechanics and we attempt to show the usefulness of this wave function in an economic context. We attempt to answer the following questions. How does the information function relate to private information? How can we use the information function to define the ‘quantity’ of information? How can we use the information function in arbitrage-based option pricing? How can the information function be used in the formulation of a so called Universal Brownian motion?     

Are beliefs a matter of taste? A case for objective imprecise information

We argue, in the spirit of some of Jean-Yves Jaffray’s work, that explicitly incorporating the information, however imprecise, available to the decision maker is relevant, feasible, and fruitful. In particular, we show that it can lead us to know whether the decision maker has wrong beliefs and whether it matters or not, that it makes it possible to better model and analyze how the decision maker takes into account new information, even when this information is not an event and finally that it is crucial when attempting to identify and measure the decision maker’s attitude toward imprecise information.     

Improving decision‐making in care order proceedings: A multijurisdictional study of court decision‐makers' viewpoints

Child welfare removals of children are among the most invasive decisions a state can make toward its citizens, and typically it is the courts that make these decisions. These interventions are regularly exposed to criticism. In this paper, we examine if and how care order proceedings could be improved in England, Finland, Norway, and California, USA. We have asked the judiciary decision‐makers about their view on what should be improved. Our findings show that the organization of the proceedings, including time and staff, are identified as issues in all four systems. Furthermore, the preparations by the child welfare agency are also mentioned as an issue, for English, Finnish, and Californian decision‐makers. Very few decision‐makers indicate features related to the individual, situational, and contextual dimensions, which is interesting since this would be expected from organization theory. The strong call for change in the way proceedings are organized indicates a need for modernization as well as better use of available competency from child development experts. The respondents focus on the elements that a decision‐maker has direct experience with and knowledge about, and this is indeed worth noting for policymakers in the four systems.     

Double or nothing?! Small groups making decisions under risk in “Quiz Taxi”

This paper investigates the behavior of contestants in the game show “Quiz Taxi” when faced with the decision whether to bet the winnings they have acquired on a final “double or nothing” question. The decision in this natural experiment is made by groups of two or three persons. This setup enables the decision-making process to be studied with regard to group and communication characteristics. The contestants show fairly risk averse behavior. There is also a significant heterogeneity in attitude to risk. In particular, all-female groups are much less likely to go for the risky option. Furthermore, decision-making behavior appears to vary across differently composed groups and prior performance. The study also documents the importance of discussions: The propensity to gamble increases with discussion length, and the correlation between communication content and the final choice is strong, indicating that time and subjective context are important features of decisions made under risk.     

Decision settings analysis – a tool for analysis and design of human activity systems

The paper describes a methodology to be used for analysis and design of human activity systems. The methodology is based on an analysis of the decision settings whereas most other decision analysis methodologies are analysing the process. The decision concept is analysed and discussed. A distinction between programmed and programmable as well as non-programmed and non-programmable decisions is proposed. A classification of different information types for decision making is presented. A methodology based on a systemic and systematic analysis of the information requirements of an organization is proposed. This methodology also indicates organizational discrepancies and information imbalances. The methodology focuses the settings of the decisions on all levels of organizations. The methodology can be regarded as a dynamic, learning system. The author proposes further research on the individuals decision making abilities.     

Explaining robust additive utility models by sequences of preference swaps

As decision-aiding tools become more popular everyday—but at the same time more sophisticated—it is of utmost importance to develop their explanatory capabilities. Some decisions require careful explanations, which can be challenging to provide when the underlying mathematical model is complex. This is the case when recommendations are based on incomplete expression of preferences, as the decision-aiding tool has to infer despite this scarcity of information. This step is key in the process but hardly intelligible for the user. The robust additive utility model is a necessary preference relation which makes minimal assumptions, at the price of handling a collection of compatible utility functions, virtually impossible to exhibit to the user. This strength for the model is a challenge for the explanation. In this paper, we come up with an explanation engine based on sequences of preference swaps, that is, pairwise comparison of alternatives. The intuition is to confront the decision maker with “elementary” comparisons, thus building incremental explanations. Elementary here means that alternatives compared may only differ on two criteria. Technically, our explanation engine exploits some properties of the necessary preference relation that we unveil in the paper. Equipped with this, we explore the issues of the existence and length of the resulting sequences. We show in particular that in the general case, no bound can be given on the length of explanations, but that in binary domains, the sequences remain short.     

Go to the Hospital or Stay at Home? A Qualitative Study of Expected Hospital Decision Making Among Older African Americans With Advanced Heart Failure

To address the need for more information concerning hospital decision making, we conducted in-depth interviews among African Americans with heart failure and their family caregivers (n?=?11 dyads). Using a case scenario, we asked participants about their anticipated hospitalization decisions. Most patients indicated that they would seek care to avoid further deterioration or death from their worsening condition. Many family caregivers anticipated having an active influence on hospitalization decisions. Findings suggest that social workers should encourage the development of adequate home-based services, recognize diverse communication styles, and use this information to facilitate medical decision making by these patients and their caregivers.     

Examination of the Child Protective Services Decision-Making Context with Implications for Decision Support System Design

Abstract

The general perception of Child Protective Services (CPS) decision making is that it is inconsistent and prone to error. As a result, risk assessment instruments were developed to enable investigators to make better decisions. The present study uses a qualitative approach with an explicit theoretical framework pertinent to management information systems and decision support system design to examine the context in which investigators operate and make decisions. The resulting information can be used to determine design requirements that would improve the experience of using a risk assessment instrument that serves as a decision support system (DSS) for CPS investigators.