Expectations of inflation: The biasing effect of thoughts about specific prices

National surveys follow consumers’ expectations of future inflation, because these may directly affect the economic choices they make, indirectly affect macro-economic outcomes, and are considered in monetary policy. Yet, relatively little is known about how individuals form the inflation expectations they report on consumer surveys. Medians of reported inflation expectations tend to track official estimates of realized inflation, but show large heterogeneity between respondents, due to some expecting seemingly extreme inflation. We present two studies to examine whether individuals who consider specific price changes when forming their inflation expectations report more extreme and disagreeing inflation expectations due to focusing on specific extreme price changes. In Study 1, participants who were instructed to recall any price changes or to recall the largest price changes both thought of items for which price changes were perceived to have been extreme. Moreover, they reported more extreme year-ahead inflation expectations and showed more disagreement than did a third group that had been asked to recall the average change in price changes. Study 2 asked participants to report their year-ahead expectations of inflation, without first prompting them to recall specific price changes. Half of participants nevertheless thought of specific prices when generating their inflation expectations. Those who thought of specific prices reported more extreme and more disagreeing inflation expectations, because they were biased towards various items associated with more extreme perceived price changes. Our findings provide new insights into expectation formation processes and have implications for the design of survey-based measures of inflation.     

Resources of origin,investments and expectations of rewards in the militancy of the Landless Rural Workers Movement (MST)

The problem studied consists of the relations between the interests and militancy and the differences in expectations of rewards in an agrarian reform settlement linked to the Landless Rural Workers Movement (MST). In this settlement, many ‘leaders’ gathered the ‘socialisation of production’. The situation arising from these circumstances produced the different reasons for engagement and different relations with the militancy. In the transition from the encampment to the settlement, it becomes important for the leaders to reinforce their positions both of ‘leadership’ and as mediators of policies and public resources, while it becomes difficult for those settled to maintain their previous investments in strong engagement. Consequently, these new conditions tend to increase the differences between the expectations of rewards from the militancy. These expectations can be pragmatic, such as viability as a farmer, or have a more symbolic character, which is associated with the struggle to create social organisation models.     

SurveyMotion: what can we learn from sensor data about respondents’ completion and response behavior in mobile web surveys?

Participation in web surveys via smartphones increased continuously in recent years. The reasons for this increase are a growing proportion of smartphone owners and an increase in mobile Internet access. However, research has shown that smartphone respondents are frequently distracted and/or multitasking, which might affect completion and response behavior in a negative way. We propose ‘SurveyMotion (SMotion)’, a JavaScript-based tool for mobile devices that can gather information about respondents’ motions during web survey completion by using sensor data. Specifically, we collect data about the total acceleration (TA) of smartphones. We conducted a lab experiment and varied the form of survey completion (e.g. standing or walking). Furthermore, we employed questions with different response formats (e.g. radio buttons and sliders) and measured response times. The results reveal that SMotion detects higher TAs of smartphones for respondents with comparatively higher motion levels. In addition, respondents’ motion level affects response times and the quality of responses given. The SMotion tool promotes the exploration of how respondents complete mobile web surveys and could be employed to understand how future mobile web surveys are completed.     

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND CONSUMER SPENDING AT THE ZERO BOUND: MICRO EVIDENCE

Standard theoretical models predict that higher inflation expectations generate greater current consumer spending at the zero lower bound of interest rates. However, recent empirical studies using U.S. micro data find negative results for this relationship. We use micro data for Japan, which has experienced low interest rates for a prolonged period, to estimate ordered probit models with a variety of controls. We find robust evidence supporting the prediction of standard models: survey respondents with higher expected inflation tend to indicate that their household has increased real spending compared with 1 year ago but will decrease it in the future. This relationship appears to be stronger for asset holders and older people. (JEL E20, E21, E30, E31, E50, E52)     

Investigating the impact of violations of the “left and top means first” heuristic on response behavior and data quality

ABSTRACT

Web surveys are an established data collection mode that use written language to provide information. The written language is accompanied by visual elements, such as presentation formats and shapes. However, research has shown that visual elements influence response behavior because respondents sometimes use interpretive heuristics to make sense of the visual elements. One such heuristic is the ‘left and top means first’ (LTMF) heuristic, which suggests that respondents tend to believe that a response scale consistently runs from left to right or from top to bottom. We conducted a web survey experiment to investigate how violations of the LTMF heuristic affect response behavior and data quality. For this purpose, a random half of respondents received response options that followed a consistent order and the other half received response options that followed an inconsistent order. The results reveal significantly different response distributions between the two groups. We also found that inconsistently ordered response options significantly increase response times and decrease data quality in terms of criterion validity. We, therefore, recommend using options that follow the design strategies of the LTMF heuristic.     

Using cognitive interviews to refine translated survey questions: an example from a cross-national crime survey

Lately, social researchers have become increasingly interested and involved in comparative and cross-national research. In part this reflects a growing realisation that key social, economic and political processes are not merely ‘domestic’ but are common across countries and cultures. Although numerous good quality data sets now exist (e.g. the European Social Survey or International Social Survey Programme), in many instances researchers need to design their own bespoke comparative surveys. Such surveys require careful design if they are to produce meaningful data. Herein we introduce, outline and report on one technique which may usefully be employed in order to design better survey items for use in cross-national surveys.     

Peeking into the past to plan the future: Assessing bird species richness in a neotropical city

Urbanization has been considered as a major threat to biodiversity, making its ecology of increasing interest. Many urban ecology studies have been developed in a short time-scale, measuring real-time patterns. However, long-term studies are imperative to understand the responses of some species to the urbanization process. In this study, we aimed to assess the information provided by a recent one-year citywide bird survey when compared to a published ‘historical’ bird list of a neotropical city (Xalapa, Mexico) that compiles information of the past three decades, mainly from urban greenspaces. Specifically, we contrasted species richness values and assessed differences in species composition between both lists. We recorded 51 species in the one-year citywide survey, representing ~15 % of those reported in the historical list. Nonetheless, the upper-bound confidence interval of the citywide survey richness prediction represented ~66 %. Most of the species recorded in the one-year citywide survey are insectivores and granivores, a pattern that agrees with previous findings that underline the importance of insectivores as part of urban bird communities in the Neotropics. Although we used robust methods to compare our one-year citywide bird list and the historical list for the city of Xalapa, we acknowledge the limitations of comparing them. However, our results shed some light on the kind and type of information that one-year citywide surveys can provide and the importance of long-term studies for comprehending the processes involved in biodiversity changes within urban areas over time. Undoubtedly, establishing long-term citywide surveys sampling birds and other biodiversity groups will allow us to better understand the response of biodiversity to urbanization over time.     

Gender,Culture and Intervention: Exploring Differences between Aboriginal and Non‐Aboriginal Children’s Responses to an Early Intervention Programme

Evaluation of a group parenting programme in the Northern Territory of Australia showed significant differences in benefits for Aboriginal and non‐Aboriginal boys and girls. The analysis considers whether boys and girls from different cultural backgrounds present with different problems; whether parental expectations for boys and girls differ and whether the intervention activates different responses in different settings. Conclusions suggest that there is a need to closely examine the ‘cultural logic’ of interventions, the appropriateness of their assumptions about child development and hypothesised mechanisms of change in different settings.     

Exploring the Unknown: Predicting the Responses of Publics not yet Surveyed

This article argues that cultural change is roughly predictable: to a large extent, it is shaped by a few variables included in a model of cultural modernization that is presented here. The beliefs and values of a society's people are also affected by unique world events and country-specific factors that would not fit into a general model, such as a given society's political parties and leaders, so our predictions will not be precisely accurate. Nevertheless, in this article we will stick our necks out and predict the locations on two major cultural dimensions of all the countries likely to be included in the next wave of the World Values Survey, to be carried out in 2005–2006. Using a simple predictive model based on our revised version of modernization theory, we first ‘predict’ and test the positions that 80 societies should have on a two major dimensions of cross-cultural variation in the most recent wave of surveys (carried out in 1999–2001); we find that our predictions are surprisingly accurate: the average prediction for a given country falls within a small radius of the location that is actually observed on the cross-cultural map (specifically: the average prediction and the actual location fall within a circle that occupies less than two percent of the map's area). We then use this same model to predict the survey responses that we expect to find for 120 countries that are most likely to be surveyed in the next wave of surveys, in 2005–2006. Almost half of these countries have not been included in our previous surveys (and a number have never been covered in any survey of which we are aware). These are genuine blind predictions – which we believe is an important challenge for social scientists. Our predictions will not be exactly correct; in some cases, they will not even be in the right ballpark. But we are confident that in the great majority of cases, they will come much closer to the observed results than would random guesses. We are confident that these a priori predictions will be reasonably close to the results obtained from actual fieldwork, because analysis of data from more than 60 societies surveyed in previous waves of the World Values Surveys and European Values Surveys indicates that cross-cultural differences in basic values have a surprisingly consistent relationship with economic development. The values and beliefs of mass publics vary a great deal cross-nationally, but they tend to vary in a roughly predictable way that can be derived from a revised version of modernization theory.     

Supporting Critical Multicultural Teacher Educators: Transformative teaching,social justice education,and perceptions of institutional support

ABSTRACT

In most teacher education programmes in Canada and the United States, educators’ opportunities to develop equity-related skills are concentrated into single ‘multicultural’ courses. These courses tend to have a conservative or liberal orientation, focused on appreciating diversity or cultural competence, rather than a critical orientation, focused on preparing teachers to address inequity. In this study, based on a survey of instructors of multicultural and intercultural teacher education courses in Canada and the US (N = 186), we examined the relationship between the criticality of their multicultural teacher education courses and their perceptions of institutional support for the values they teach. We found a negative relationship between the two – the more critical the instructors’ approaches, the less institutional support they perceived.     

Empathic responses by cyberbystanders: the importance of proximity

Cyberaggression, and its' specific sub-type, cyberbullying, have become a widely debated and studied issues, but we still lack knowledge about cyberbystanders, whose reactions (or lack thereof) can play a crucial role. One of the important factors determining behavioral outcomes is cyberbystanders’ empathic response to the incident. Certain features of cyberaggression incidents (e.g. distance and the invisibility of those involved) raise the question of what conditions tend to encourage (or inhibit) empathetic responses on the part of cyberbystanders. Therefore, we investigated the link between the empathic responses of 453 Czech adolescent cyberbystanders (age 12–18) and the context in which they become aware of ongoing cybervictimization. We found that being directly present and being informed by the victim increased emotional response, while witnessing it only online or being informed by others had no effect. We discuss the importance of including the dimensions of ‘proximity’ or ‘directness’ in both prevention and intervention efforts and future research on cyberbystanders’ reactions.     

Utility of linking survey and registry data to evaluate interventions and policies to address disparities in breast cancer survivorship among young women

PurposeThere is limited research linking data sources to evaluate the multifactorial impacts on the quality of treatment received and financial burden among young women with breast cancer. To address this gap and support future evaluation efforts, we examined the utility of combining patient survey and cancer registry data.Patient and MethodsWe administered a survey to women, aged 18–39 years, with breast cancer from four U.S. states. We conducted a systematic response-rate analysis and evaluated differences between racial groups. Survey responses were linked with cancer registry data to assess whether surveys could reliably supplement registry data.ResultsA total of 830 women completed the survey for a response rate of 28.4 %. Blacks and Asian/Pacific Islanders were half as likely to respond as white women. Concordance between survey and registry data was high for demographic variables (Cohen’s kappa [k]: 0.879 to 0.949), moderate to high for treatments received (k: 0.467 to 0.854), and low for hormone receptor status (k: 0.167 to 0.553). Survey items related to insurance status, employment, and symptoms revealed racial differences.ConclusionCancer registry data, supplemented by patient surveys, can provide a broader understanding of the quality of care and financial impacts of breast cancer among young women.     

Theorizing theory: Invitation to a broader conversation about ‘theory’ in sociology

‘Theory’ is a seminal term in sociology. Sociologists tend to ask that articles, chapters and monographs are ‘theoretical’, ‘develop theory’ or ‘make a theoretical contribution’. Yet, as demonstrated in Gabriel Abend’s 2008 article ‘The Meaning of ‘Theory’, it is generally unclear what sociologists mean when they talk about theory. Abend distinguishes seven different meanings sociologists tend to impute to ‘theory’ and argues that no single definition can usefully capture these substantively different meanings. Counter to Abend, we propose and defend a minimal and versatile theory of theory, which does capture the important common denominators in sociologists' various uses of the term theory. The major strengths of our proposal are that it enables informed and synthetic discussion and fosters reflexivity about differences and similarities between different types of theory. Our minimal theory of theory thus serves as an invitation to a broader conversation about theory in sociology.     

(How) Can we value health, safety and the environment?

The assumptions that underpin the conventional economic model of ‘rational agents’ tend to be substantially violated by data from surveys that try to elicit people’s values for health, safety and environmental goods. Psychological research suggests that there may be a large affective component in people’s responses to such surveys, with the result that those data are not amenable to the ‘logic’ of economic rationality. This raises questions both about the way we model human judgment and decision processes, and also about the use of survey data to guide public policy in these and other areas.     

The framing of return from above and below in Ecuadorian migration: a project,a myth,or a political device?

Although return migration is a significant topic in current policy, the competing interests of sending and destination countries in promoting it and the prospects of making return strategies ‘from above’ a viable and desirable option for migrants are relatively neglected topics. In this article, I explore the distinct agendas, meanings and expectations underlying the prospects of return migration from Ecuador to Italy. I approach this recent migration flow through ethnography and an institutional analysis of the policy strategies and discourses emerging in the source country. The Ecuadorian government has recently developed a Plan Retorno aimed at facilitating emigrants’ return and economic reintegration. The narratives of Ecuadorian migrants generally reveal a deep‐rooted expectation to return home. While initially hoping to return home ‘soon’, however, migrants systematically tend to postpone their homecoming. When it does take place in the short term, it is likely to be through migration ‘failure’ rather than an actual accomplishment of their earlier objectives. Given the distinct interests and expectations driving them, it is possible to assess the relationship between the two approaches to return. I conclude that return migration, irrespective of its actual accomplishment, is relevant to a better understanding of emigrant policies and of immigrant life trajectories overseas.     

The influence of interviewer characteristics on support for democracy and political engagement in Sub-Saharan Africa*

This study investigates how an interviewer’s characteristics affect how respondents answer survey questions about democracy and political engagement. I analyze data from the 2008 Afrobarometer surveys, in which 810 interviewers surveyed 27,713 respondents across 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Using these data, I study how interviewer education, age, and gender affect two outcomes: (1) response distributions to attitudinal and behavioral survey questions and (2) the likelihood of respondents saying ‘don’t know’ to a survey question. The analysis also investigates how the respondent’s perception of who sponsored the survey (NGO, private sector, government) affects attitudes. The results show that these interviewer characteristics affect the quality of survey data on political attitudes and behaviors. In the discussion, I consider the implications for research based on public opinion data about democracy and political engagement.     

Segregation,ethnic labour market and the occupational expectations of Palestinian students in Israel

Using data from a large national representative survey of Palestinian high school students in Israel, this study examines the effect of the local labour market and the internal ethnic/religious segregation between Muslims, Christians and Druze, on students' occupational expectations. The data, which were collected in spring 1997, consisted of two types, these being data regarding students, and data regarding schools. The findings show that despite the disadvantages of the Palestinian minority as a whole within Israeli society, students tend to develop high occupational expectations. While the general level of their expectations can be explained by their educational and residential segregation from the Jewish majority, the multi-level analyses suggests that the internal segregation facilitates differential access to socio-economic resources, which generate different levels of occupational expectations between students from various ethnic/religious groups. More specifically, the findings demonstrate that the social and economic differences between Muslims, Christians and Druze are playing a central role in determining students' expectations, acting as a mechanism to preserve social inequality. The gender dimension of the occupational expectations and the influence of die segregation between Palestinian and Jewish students, are also discussed.     

Policy Disciplining Effect of Capital Account Openness in India

In this paper, the policy disciplining effect of capital account openness in India is examined by examining the impact of capital account openness on inflation and fiscal deficit. Multivariate modeling, which includes other relevant variables identified in the literature, is used for the analysis. Our results show capital account openness has a strong disciplining effect on inflation whereas it has no significant effect on fiscal deficit. In the case of fiscal deficit, trade openness and number of government changes only are the significant determinants. The moves of the RBI tend to reaffirm the disciplinary effect of capital account openness. In the meantime, since the mid 1990s, RBI kept a strict vigil over inflation and inflation expectations in the context of a more open capital account. One major reason for the problem concerning inflation expectation by RBI is the threat of capital outflow in the face of loose monetary policy and high inflation.