Intertemporal stability of uncertainty preferences

We analyze the stability of ambiguity preferences experimentally, by repeatedly eliciting ambiguity attitudes towards multiple 3-color Ellsberg urns over a period of two months. 57% of the choices show stable preferences over this time period. This is significantly higher than random choices would suggest, but significantly lower than the level of consistency when measures are taken back-to-back (75%). Over the same time frame, we do not find a significant change in the consistency of risk preferences. For subjects who are able to recall their ambiguity decision after two months correctly, the share of consistent choices does not drop significantly over time.     

Intergenerational transfer of time and risk preferences

There is a growing interest in individual time and risk preferences. Little is known about how these preferences are formed. It is hypothesised that parents may transmit their preferences to their offspring. This paper examines the correlation in offspring and parental time and risk preferences using data from an annual household survey in Australia (the HILDA survey). Both time and risk preferences are examined and we explored whether the correlation in time and risk preferences varies across the distribution of preferences and across the across the four parent–child dyads (mother/daughter, mother/son, father/daughter, father/son). The results show that there is a significant relationship between parents and their young adult offspring risk and time preference measures. The correlation varies across the distribution of time preferences. The correlation was largest for longer planning horizons. Risk averse parents are more likely to have risk averse children. Except for the father/daughter dyad risk seeking parents are more likely to have risk seeking offspring. Some gender differences were found. The association in parental and offspring time preference was larger for mothers than fathers. Daughters are more likely to be influenced by their mother’s risk preferences, however, sons are equally influenced by both parents. The results of this study suggest that the transmission in preferences is more nuanced than previously thought and parental gender may be important.     

An empirical investigation of heterogeneity in time preferences and smoking behaviors

In this study I exploit the findings of a population survey in which I had the opportunity to introduce questions on time preferences. The study uses retrospective data to estimate the relationship between present-biased preferences and the decisions to start and quit smoking. Respondents stating present-biased preferences are not more prone to start smoking but quit later in life, and after more failed attempts. These preliminary results strongly suggest that smokers form a heterogeneous population and it can be argued that such heterogeneity means that taxes on cigarettes are a blunt and inefficient instrument of public health.     

Use of time and preferences for time allocation among urban,employed, married women

This study examines the relationship between employed wives' preferences for household production time, employment time, leisure, and their actual time use. A random sample of 235 employed, married women estimate their time use on an average weekday and weekend day in 13 activities and indicate their preferences for time in those activities. Hierarchical multiple regression procedures are used to examine the relationships between actual and preferred time use. Weekday employment time is not related to preferences for more or less time in household production but wives allocating more time to employment want to spend less time at that employment and more time in leisure. Weekend employment time is related to preferences for more time in leisure, child care, and other household work. Time spent performing household work is not related to preferences for more or less time in any activity except the desire for more leisure time on weekends.Ann Renigar Hiatt is Assistant Professor in the Department of Human Services, College of Education and Allied Professions at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC 28223. Her research interests include employed women's time allocation, time pressures, and use of time management strategies. She received her Ph.D. from the University of North Carolina at Greensboro.Deborah D. Godwin is Associate Professor in the Department of Housing and Consumer Economics at the University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602. Her research has focused on husbands' and wives' time allocation to household production, the effects of women's employment on family economic functioning, and family financial management. She received her Ph.D. from the University of North Carolina at Greensbore.     

Short- and long-term stability in organizational networks: Temporal structures of project teams

Network research focuses on patterns of stable relationships, where stability represents the unfolding of social processes over long time frames. We argue that social interactions exhibit important regularities in different time frames (short and long term), reflecting distinct social processes. We illustrate the value of this distinction through a comparative case study of technology-mediated communication, within two project teams in a digital marketing agency. We examine how the embedding of interpersonal interactions in processes of reciprocity and closure over different time horizons enables the emergence of cohesion in the face of constant compositional changes. We propose that the time frames in which stable patterns of interactions develop are the key to understanding the nature of the underlying social processes with short-term patterns of closure and reciprocity representing adaptation to change while longer term patterns indicate cohesion. Our results are supportive of this argument and show that the two teams exhibit the same regularities in interactions but across different time horizons. We discuss the implication of our findings and argue that distinguishing between short- and long-term stability of social networks offers a novel and promising avenue for network research.     

Cognitive and non-cognitive traits and the intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic inequality

This paper studies the roles of cognitive and non-cognitive characteristics in a standard Roemerian Inequality of Opportunity (IOP) model. Using Australian microdata, we model the effects of individuals’ backgrounds and their psychological traits on two adult income variables. We find that measurable psychological traits (intelligence, locus of control, big five personality traits) are slightly more important than background characteristics (such as race, gender, social class at birth) in explaining income disparities. However, the fraction of IOP confounded by psychological factors is small (11%–12%), which suggests that background inequalities do not meaningfully reflect differences in cognitive or non-cognitive ability.     

Interdependency among addictive behaviours and time/risk preferences: Discrete choice model analysis of smoking, drinking, and gambling

This paper simultaneously measures the rate of time preference and the coefficient of risk aversion, as well as investigates the interdependencies of four addictive behaviours: smoking, drinking, pachinko (a popular Japanese form of pinball gambling), and horse betting among a sample of the Japanese population. We reach two main conclusions. First, there are significant interdependencies among the four addictive behaviours, in particular between smoking and drinking and between gambling on pachinko and the horses. Second, we conclude that the higher the time preference rate and the lower the risk aversion coefficient becomes, the more likely individuals smoke, drink frequently, and gamble on pachinko and the horses.     

从PPI变化看当前稳增长与化解过剩产能

我国经济稳增长必须把化解过剩产能作为一项重要任务,这既是减少经济波动的需要,也是转变经济发展方式,为新兴产业发展腾笼换鸟的必然要求。建议多管齐下,实行五大战略:坚持实施扩大内需战略,大力促进消费需求增长和稳步推进城市化;坚持实施走出去战略,积极拓展国际新兴市场和转移国内过剩生产能力;坚持实施产业创新升级战略,大力优化行业技术和产品结构;坚持实施淘汰落后产能战略,严格控制过剩行业产能扩张;坚持建立健全产业引导调控战略,促进产业有序竞争发展。     

谈经济增长方式转型

转变经济增长方式,首要的是深化改革。收入分配、腐败、消费比重过低、外贸不平衡等问题,需要通过深化改革加以解决。如果将双轨制改革遗留的弊病革除掉,形成一个有效的市场,经济增长会很快,产业也会继续升级;在产业升级的过程中,政府发挥作用,经济增长是可以持续的。我国经济持续高速增长的潜力很大,而且在经济增长的过程中,收入分配会持续改善,消费比重也会提高,投资比重则会下降,并且生态环境也会随着我国进入高收入国家行列、经济结构向服务业逐渐转型以及实施环境治理而不断改善。     

Social fabric and fear of crime: Considering spatial location and time of day

Criminologists have long noted that social networks play a role in influencing residents' fear of crime, but findings vis a vis the exact nature of that role have been mixed. More social ties may be associated with less fear of crime through their role in collective action, trust, and emotional support, but also with more fear of crime because of their role in the diffusion of information on local crime patterns. In what follows, we suggest temporal and spatial distinctions in how social ties matter for fear of crime with respect to these different mechanisms. Analysis of data from a large scale egocentric network study in Southern California provides evidence for these claims.     

Inequality measurement and the time structure of household income in Israel

The aim of this paper is to empirically evaluate the effect of the length of the accounting period on indices of inequality of household income in Israel. There are three main findings: (1) The analysis of the impact of the accounting period on the Gini index of inequality can be done in a way which is identical to analyzing the effect of the accounting period on the coefficient of variation; (2) changing the accounting period from one to three months decreases, on average, the Gini index of inequality by about 1.7%. Furthermore, the Gini index calculated from a three-month accounting period was 3.9%–4.1% higher than the index based on a 12-month period. The change in the accounting period from 12 months to three months accounts for 27% to 37% of the increase in inequality in the last two decades, depending on the type of income considered. (3) The above relationship is stable over the years but is sensitive to the definition of income.     

Improving the Measurement of the Relationship between Opportunities and Income: Evidence from Longitudinal Data from Chile

The relationship between exogenous circumstances faced in early childhood (opportunities) and earnings has been increasingly studied in the past decade. In this article we assess the sensitivity of this relationship to different income measures. Typically the empirical evidence is based on short‐term income measures that suffer from variability and measurement error. Using longitudinal data from Chile, we find that when four‐ and seven‐year earnings are used, the relationship between inequality of opportunity and income inequality is significantly higher than that obtained with yearly measures. Monte Carlo simulations with several data‐generating processes confirm this result. This supports policies targeted to reduce long‐term income inequality via providing equal opportunity to individuals at early stages in life.     

Self-control exertion and the expression of time preference: Experimental results from Ethiopia

Classic economic theory assumes that time preference is a stable parameter. However, a large literature in psychology theory suggests that initial exertions of self-control affect one’s ability to deploy self-control subsequently. As savings decisions require individuals to make trade-offs between immediate gratification and future rewards, the self-control literature suggests that expression of time preference is susceptible to environmental influences, a contradiction of the neoclassical stability assumption. Empirical evidence is mixed. This paper proposes that self-control use has heterogeneous effects on the expression of economic time preference. Using a Stroop task to experimentally induce self-control fatigue in university students in Northern Ethiopia, we find that treated subjects with below median finances behave more impatiently in an incentivized time preference task than do untreated subjects. By contrast, treated relatively wealthy students do not behave differently than their untreated counterparts. Our results suggest that the psychological environment does affect the expression of time preference, but self-control use does not uniformly deplete patience for all subjects. Our results are most consistent with the process model of self-control.     

The role of perception in the intention to change the family financial situation

The study investigates factors associated with the individual intentions to change the family financial situation of 337 farm respondents. The hypotheses are that intentions to change are influenced by (a) resource flexibility or constraints existing at the time of the decision situation, including off-farm employment, education, age, and household size, and (b) perceptual factors of perceived income adequacy, locus of control, degree of discrepancy between standard and level of the family financial situation, and dissatisfaction or satisfaction with the discrepancy. Older respondents and those experiencing more external control are less likely to intend to change. Younger respondents and those who perceive their incomes as more adequate are more likely to perceive that they have control over their situation. The lower the perceived income adequacy, the greater the discrepancy between standard and level of the family financial situation and the lower the satisfaction with the discrepancy. Significant indirect effects were consistent with theoretical expectations.Research was supported by the Minnesota Agricultural Experiment Station Projects 52-055, 52-054, and 52-058 and the Minnesota Extension Service. The authors wish to thank Jean W. Bauer, Ph.D., for research collaboration and Susan Keskinen and Cathy Schultz for research assistance.Her research interests include social, economic, and technical decision processes, discrepancies between standards and levels, and the interrelationship of work and family roles, particularly for farm women. Her Ph.D. is from Iowa State University.Her research interests in family resource management theory include social decision making processes and social decision rules, family life quality, and the economic consequences of divorce. Her Ph.D. is from Michigan State University.     

Predicting children's savings: The role of parents' savings for transferring financial advantage and opportunities for financial inclusion

Parents transfer many forms of advantage to children based on their financial resources. Of interest is whether parents transfer educational and financial advantages and whether this occurs early in life. This paper examines financial advantage by asking whether children's own savings—apart from that of their parents—can be predicted by a separate measure of parents' savings for their child. This study predicts children's basic and college savings at ages 12 to 15 with separate samples from low-to-moderate- (LMI; N = 333) and high-income (HI; N = 411) households using Panel Study of Income Dynamics and Child Development Supplement data. Propensity score weighting and logistic regression results find that parents' savings for their child is significant in both household types. Given this, policies that aim to include children in savings may help reduce transfers of financial advantage and, ultimately, educational advantage.     

The stability of personality traits in adolescence and young adulthood

Models of economic decision-making usually assume that personality is stable over time. We assess the validity of this assumption over an eight-year time frame in adolescence and young adulthood using nationally representative panel data from Australia. Our study shows that unconditional mean-level changes in personality traits are small—with the exception of conscientiousness which increases by 0.38 SD—because most individuals do not change their scores in a statistically reliable way during adolescence and young adulthood, or changes occur in equal proportions in opposite directions. Controlling for systematic panel attrition and multiple hypothesis testing, we demonstrate that personality traits do not systematically respond to the majority of common one-off family-, income-, and health-related shocks. However, a small number of life events—marriage, family members detained in jail, leaving the workforce and long-term health problems—are associated with subsequent changes in personality. In particular, youth who experience long-term health problems including bodily pain increase their external locus of control by 0.5–0.9 SD, an economically meaningful change when expressed in terms of hourly wage penalty.     

Journalists’ assessments of public relations subsidies and contact preferences: Exploring the situation in Spain

The aim of this article is to offer journalists’ assessment of their relationships with public relations professionals in the Autonomous Community of Catalonia (Spain). We analyzed quantitative interviews (questionnaires) and in-depth interviews conducted with 68 Catalan journalists regarding their relationship with public relations practitioners and investigated their assessments of public relations subsidies and contact preferences. An explanatory view is offered.     

西三角商贸中心构建研究

在阐述西三角经济区与西三角商贸中心内涵的基础上,分析了西三角商贸中心构建的影响因素和西三角商贸中心的空间布局、功能和结构要素。研究发现,构建西三角商贸中心有利于推进西三角商贸产业和区域经济协同发展。最后,提出推进西三角交通协同发展和提升商贸产业竞争力等对策建议。     

Healthy, educated and wealthy: A primer on the impact of public and private welfare expenditures on economic growth

In this paper, we provide first evidence of the impact of public and private expenditures in health and education on economic growth, via their influence on people's health, skills and knowledge. We consider a growth accounting framework in order to test whether countries that devote a larger amount of resources to the consumption of health and educational services experience higher growth rates. We also test whether the effects on economic growth of public expenditure in health and education differ from those of private expenditure. Our empirical analysis is based on a panel of 19 OECD countries observed between 1971 and 1998. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that health and education expenditure affects positively growth. The estimated impact is stronger for health than for education. More importantly, we find some evidence that public expenditure influences GDP growth more than private expenditure.     

Gender inequality in mobile technology access: the role of economic and social development*

ABSTRACT

Digital inequality is a burgeoning field of study across disciplines, yet few papers address categorical digital inequality in cross-national samples. Using the only available cross-national data on access to Information and Communications Technologies (ICTs) disaggregated by gender from the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), I add to existing literature by examining factors associated with women’s unequal access to mobile phones across 51 countries. The largest of such samples, the ITU data demonstrates that the type and levels of gender inequality in mobile phone use are not consistent throughout countries. In fact, the distribution is quite variable, from incorporating a small-sample of nations where women have marginally higher access, to sub-samples close to parity, to a larger sub-sample where women are at a substantial disadvantage. Using Quantile Regression Methods to assess these variations, I test how major gender and international development theories inform inequality patterns. My findings suggest that women’s wellbeing, as measured by their access to modern contraception (i.e., reproductive autonomy), overwhelmingly promotes women’s relative access to mobile phones, regardless of preexisting levels of access. Other perspectives like the growth imperative and world polity theory show some staggered associations along the distribution that remain substantively inconclusive.