Inference of R=P[X<Y] for generalized logistic distribution

This paper deals with the estimation of R=P[X<Y] when X and Y come from two independent generalized logistic distributions with different parameters. The maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE) and its asymptotic distribution are proposed. The asymptotic distribution is used to construct an asymptotic confidence interval of R. Assuming that the common scale parameter is known, the MLE, uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator, Bayes estimation and confidence interval of R are obtained. The MLE of R, asymptotic distribution of R in the general case, is also discussed. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the different proposed methods. Analysis of a real data set has also been presented for illustrative purposes.     

Kolmogorov-Smirnov Type Test-Statistics For The Gamma,Erlang-2 And The Inverse Gaussian Distributions When The Parameters Are Unknown.

Critical values are presented for the Kolmogorov-Smirnov type test statistics for the following three cases: (i) the gamma distribution when both the scale and the shape parameters are not known, (ii) the scale parameter of the gamma distribution is not known and (iii) the inverse Gaussian distribution when both the parameters are unknown. This study was motivated by the necessity to fit the gamma, the Erlang-2 and the inverse Gaussian distributions to the interpurchase times of individuals for coffee in marketing research.     

EM-based maximum likelihood parameter estimation for multivariate generalized hyperbolic distributions with fixed λ

Generalized Hyperbolic distribution (Barndorff-Nielsen 1977) is a variance-mean mixture of a normal distribution with the Generalized Inverse Gaussian distribution. Recently subclasses of these distributions (e.g., the hyperbolic distribution and the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution) have been applied to construct stochastic processes in turbulence and particularly in finance, where multidimensional problems are of special interest. Parameter estimation for these distributions based on an i.i.d. sample is a difficult task even for a specified one-dimensional subclass (subclass being uniquely defined by ) and relies on numerical methods. For the hyperbolic subclass ( = 1), computer program hyp (Blæsild and Sørensen 1992) estimates parameters via ML when the dimensionality is less than or equal to three. To the best of the author's knowledge, no successful attempts have been made to fit any given subclass when the dimensionality is greater than three. This article proposes a simple EM-based (Dempster, Laird and Rubin 1977) ML estimation procedure to estimate parameters of the distribution when the subclass is known regardless of the dimensionality. Our method relies on the ability to numerically evaluate modified Bessel functions of the third kind and their logarithms, which is made possible by currently available software. The method is applied to fit the five dimensional Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution to a series of returns on foreign exchange rates.     

The skew generalized t distribution as the scale mixture of a skew exponential power distribution and its applications in robust estimation

In this paper, we consider the family of skew generalized t (SGT) distributions originally introduced by Theodossiou [P. Theodossiou, Financial data and the skewed generalized t distribution, Manage. Sci. Part 1 44 (12) ( 1998), pp. 1650–1661] as a skew extension of the generalized t (GT) distribution. The SGT distribution family warrants special attention, because it encompasses distributions having both heavy tails and skewness, and many of the widely used distributions such as Student's t, normal, Hansen's skew t, exponential power, and skew exponential power (SEP) distributions are included as limiting or special cases in the SGT family. We show that the SGT distribution can be obtained as the scale mixture of the SEP and generalized gamma distributions. We investigate several properties of the SGT distribution and consider the maximum likelihood estimation of the location, scale, and skewness parameters under the assumption that the shape parameters are known. We show that if the shape parameters are estimated along with the location, scale, and skewness parameters, the influence function for the maximum likelihood estimators becomes unbounded. We obtain the necessary conditions to ensure the uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimators for the location, scale, and skewness parameters, with known shape parameters. We provide a simple iterative re-weighting algorithm to compute the maximum likelihood estimates for the location, scale, and skewness parameters and show that this simple algorithm can be identified as an EM-type algorithm. We finally present two applications of the SGT distributions in robust estimation.     

Classical and Bayesian estimation of P(Y < X) for Kumaraswamy's distribution

The aim of this paper is to study the estimation of the reliability R=P(Y<X) when X and Y are independent random variables that follow Kumaraswamy's distribution with different parameters. If we assume that the first shape parameter is common and known, the maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE), the exact confidence interval and the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator of R are obtained. Moreover, when the first parameter is common but unknown, MLEs, Bayes estimators, asymptotic distributions and confidence intervals for R are derived. Furthermore, Bayes and empirical Bayes estimators for R are obtained when the first parameter is common and known. Finally, when all four parameters are different and unknown, the MLE of R is obtained. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the different proposed methods and conclusions on the findings are given.     

Discrete generalized exponential distribution of a second type

In this paper, we shall attempt to introduce another discrete analogue of the generalized exponential distribution of Gupta and Kundu [Generalized exponential distributions, Aust. N. Z. J. Stat. 41(2) (1999), pp. 173–188], different to that of Nekoukhou et al. [A discrete analogue of the generalized exponential distribution, Comm. Stat. Theory Methods, to appear (2011)]. This new discrete distribution, which we shall call a discrete generalized exponential distribution of the second type (DGE₂(α, p)), can be viewed as another generalization of the geometric distribution. We shall first study some basic distributional and moment properties, as well as order statistics distributions of this family of new distributions. Certain compounded DGE₂(α, p) distributions are also discussed as the results of which some previous lifetime distributions such as that of Adamidis and Loukas [A lifetime distribution with decreasing failure rate, Statist. Probab. Lett. 39 (1998), pp. 35–42] follow as corollaries. Then, we will investigate estimation of the parameters involved. Finally, we will examine the model with a real data set.     

A new four-parameter discrete distribution with bathtub and unimodal failure rate

In this paper, a discrete counterpart of the general class of continuous beta-G distributions is introduced. A discrete analog of the beta generalized exponential distribution of Barreto-Souza et al. [2], as an important special case of the proposed class, is studied. This new distribution contains some previously known discrete distributions as well as two new models. The hazard rate function of the new model can be increasing, decreasing, bathtub-shaped and upside-down bathtub. Some distributional and moment properties of the new distribution as well as its order statistics are discussed. Estimation of the parameters is illustrated using the maximum likelihood method and, finally, the model with a real data set is examined.     

Inference of stress-strength for the Type-II generalized logistic distribution under progressively Type-II censored samples

This article studies the estimation of the reliability R = P[Y < X] when X and Y come from two independent generalized logistic distributions of Type-II with different parameters, based on progressively Type-II censored samples. When the common scale parameter is unknown, the maximum likelihood estimator and its asymptotic distribution are proposed. The asymptotic distribution is used to construct an asymptotic confidence interval of R. Bayes estimator of R and the corresponding credible interval using the Gibbs sampling technique have been proposed too. Assuming that the common scale parameter is known, the maximum likelihood estimator, uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator, Bayes estimation, and confidence interval of R are extracted. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the different proposed methods. Analysis of a real dataset is given for illustrative purposes. Finally, methods are extended for proportional hazard rate models.     

A new family of generalized distributions

Kumaraswamy [Generalized probability density-function for double-bounded random-processes, J. Hydrol. 462 (1980), pp. 79–88] introduced a distribution for double-bounded random processes with hydrological applications. For the first time, based on this distribution, we describe a new family of generalized distributions (denoted with the prefix ‘Kw’) to extend the normal, Weibull, gamma, Gumbel, inverse Gaussian distributions, among several well-known distributions. Some special distributions in the new family such as the Kw-normal, Kw-Weibull, Kw-gamma, Kw-Gumbel and Kw-inverse Gaussian distribution are discussed. We express the ordinary moments of any Kw generalized distribution as linear functions of probability weighted moments (PWMs) of the parent distribution. We also obtain the ordinary moments of order statistics as functions of PWMs of the baseline distribution. We use the method of maximum likelihood to fit the distributions in the new class and illustrate the potentiality of the new model with an application to real data.     

On the Estimation of Parameters of Kumaraswamy-G Distributions

Cordeiro and de Castro proposed a new family of generalized distributions based on the Kumaraswamy distribution (denoted as Kw-G). Nadarajah et al. showed that the density function of the new family of distributions can be expressed as a linear combination of the density of exponentiated family of distributions. They derived some properties of Kw-G distributions and discussed estimation of parameters using the maximum likelihood (ML) method. Cheng and Amin and Ranneby introduced a new method of estimating parameters based on Kullback–Leibler divergence (the maximum spacing (MSP) method). In this article, the estimates of parameters of Kw-G distributions are obtained using the MSP method. For some special Kw-G distributions, the new estimators are compared with ML estimators. It is shown by simulations and a real data application that MSP estimators have better properties than ML estimators.     

On the matrix-variate generalized hyperbolic distribution and its Bayesian applications

In the first part of the paper, we introduce the matrix-variate generalized hyperbolic distribution by mixing the matrix normal distribution with the matrix generalized inverse Gaussian density. The p-dimensional generalized hyperbolic distribution of [Barndorff-Nielsen, O. (1978). Hyperbolic distributions and distributions on hyperbolae. Scand. J. Stat., 5, 151–157], the matrix-T distribution and many well-known distributions are shown to be special cases of the new distribution. Some properties of the distribution are also studied. The second part of the paper deals with the application of the distribution in the Bayesian analysis of the normal multivariate linear model.     

The Kumaraswamy skew-t distribution and its related properties

Skew normal distribution is an alternative distribution to the normal distribution to accommodate asymmetry. Since then extensive studies have been done on applying Azzalini’s skewness mechanism to other well-known distributions, such as skew-t distribution, which is more flexible and can better accommodate long tailed data than the skew normal one. The Kumaraswamy generalized distribution (Kw ? F) is another new class of distribution which is capable of fitting skewed data that can not be fitted well by existing distributions. Such a distribution has been widely studied and various versions of generalization of this distribution family have been introduced. In this article, we introduce a new generalization of the skew-t distribution based on the Kumaraswamy generalized distribution. The new class of distribution, which we call the Kumaraswamy skew-t (KwST) has the ability of fitting skewed, long, and heavy-tailed data and is more flexible than the skew-t distribution as it contains the skew-t distribution as a special case. Related properties of this distribution family such as mathematical properties, moments, and order statistics are discussed. The proposed distribution is applied to a real dataset to illustrate the estimation procedure.     

Fitting with Matrix-Exponential Distributions

Abstract

It is well known that general phase-type distributions are considerably overparameterized, that is, their representations often require many more parameters than is necessary to define the distributions. In addition, phase-type distributions, even those defined by a small number of parameters, may have representations of high order. These two problems have serious implications when using phase-type distributions to fit data. To address this issue we consider fitting data with the wider class of matrix-exponential distributions. Representations for matrix-exponential distributions do not need to have a simple probabilistic interpretation, and it is this relaxation which ensures that the problems of overparameterization and high order do not present themselves. However, when using matrix-exponential distributions to fit data, a problem arises because it is unknown, in general, when their representations actually correspond to a distribution. In this paper we develop a characterization for matrix-exponential distributions and use it in a method to fit data using maximum likelihood estimation. The fitting algorithm uses convex semi-infinite programming combined with a nonlinear search.     

The simulation of spherical distributions in the Fisher-Bingham family

The problem of generating pseudo-random unit vectors from the Fisher-Bingham distribution is considered. Attention is focussed on a subfamily known as FB_6' which includes many of the spherical distributions of practical interest, including those of Dimroth-Watson, FB_4' FB₅ and Bingham type. The rejection procedures suggested here for these distributions should prove adequate for most practical purposes. Possibilities for simulating from the general Fisher-Bingham distribution are also mentioned briefly.     

A flexible procedure for formulating probability distributions on the unit interval with applications

Abstract

In this paper, we present a flexible mechanism for constructing probability distributions on a bounded intervals which is based on the composition of the baseline cumulative probability function and the quantile transformation from another cumulative probability distribution. In particular, we are interested in the (0, 1) intervals. The composite quantile family of probability distributions contains many models that have been proposed in the recent literature and new probability distributions are introduced on the unit interval. The proposed methodology is illustrated with two examples to analyze a poverty dataset in Peru from the Bayesian paradigm and Likelihood points of view.     

Mixture of linear mixed models using multivariate t distribution

Linear mixed models are widely used when multiple correlated measurements are made on each unit of interest. In many applications, the units may form several distinct clusters, and such heterogeneity can be more appropriately modelled by a finite mixture linear mixed model. The classical estimation approach, in which both the random effects and the error parts are assumed to follow normal distribution, is sensitive to outliers, and failure to accommodate outliers may greatly jeopardize the model estimation and inference. We propose a new mixture linear mixed model using multivariate t distribution. For each mixture component, we assume the response and the random effects jointly follow a multivariate t distribution, to conveniently robustify the estimation procedure. An efficient expectation conditional maximization algorithm is developed for conducting maximum likelihood estimation. The degrees of freedom parameters of the t distributions are chosen data adaptively, for achieving flexible trade-off between estimation robustness and efficiency. Simulation studies and an application on analysing lung growth longitudinal data showcase the efficacy of the proposed approach.     

Stress-Strength Reliability of a Two-Parameter Bathtub-shaped Lifetime Distribution Based on Progressively Censored Samples

Based on progressively Type-II censored samples, this article deals with inference for the stress-strength reliability R = P(Y < X) when X and Y are two independent two-parameter bathtub-shape lifetime distributions with different scale parameters, but having the same shape parameter. Different methods for estimating the reliability are applied. The maximum likelihood estimate of R is derived. Also, its asymptotic distribution is used to construct an asymptotic confidence interval for R. Assuming that the shape parameter is known, the maximum likelihood estimator of R is obtained. Based on the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of R an exact confidence interval of that has been obtained. The uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator are calculated for R. Bayes estimate of R and the associated credible interval are also got under the assumption of independent gamma priors. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the performances of the proposed estimators. One data analysis has been performed for illustrative purpose. Finally, we will generalize this distribution to the proportional hazard family with two parameters and derive various estimators in this family.     

Statistical analysis of the Lomax–Logarithmic distribution

In this paper we introduce a three-parameter lifetime distribution following the Marshall and Olkin [New method for adding a parameter to a family of distributions with application to the exponential and Weibull families. Biometrika. 1997;84(3):641–652] approach. The proposed distribution is a compound of the Lomax and Logarithmic distributions (LLD). We provide a comprehensive study of the mathematical properties of the LLD. In particular, the density function, the shape of the hazard rate function, a general expansion for moments, the density of the rth order statistics, and the mean and median deviations of the LLD are derived and studied in detail. The maximum likelihood estimators of the three unknown parameters of LLD are obtained. The asymptotic confidence intervals for the parameters are also obtained based on asymptotic variance–covariance matrix. Finally, a real data set is analysed to show the potential of the new proposed distribution.     

Confidence and Likelihood*

Confidence intervals for a single parameter are spanned by quantiles of a confidence distribution, and one‐sided p‐values are cumulative confidences. Confidence distributions are thus a unifying format for representing frequentist inference for a single parameter. The confidence distribution, which depends on data, is exact (unbiased) when its cumulative distribution function evaluated at the true parameter is uniformly distributed over the unit interval. A new version of the Neyman–Pearson lemma is given, showing that the confidence distribution based on the natural statistic in exponential models with continuous data is less dispersed than all other confidence distributions, regardless of how dispersion is measured. Approximations are necessary for discrete data, and also in many models with nuisance parameters. Approximate pivots might then be useful. A pivot based on a scalar statistic determines a likelihood in the parameter of interest along with a confidence distribution. This proper likelihood is reduced of all nuisance parameters, and is appropriate for meta‐analysis and updating of information. The reduced likelihood is generally different from the confidence density. Confidence distributions and reduced likelihoods are rooted in Fisher–Neyman statistics. This frequentist methodology has many of the Bayesian attractions, and the two approaches are briefly compared. Concepts, methods and techniques of this brand of Fisher–Neyman statistics are presented. Asymptotics and bootstrapping are used to find pivots and their distributions, and hence reduced likelihoods and confidence distributions. A simple form of inverting bootstrap distributions to approximate pivots of the abc type is proposed. Our material is illustrated in a number of examples and in an application to multiple capture data for bowhead whales.     

The Effect of Mis-Specification Between the Lognormal and Weibull Distributions on the Interval Estimation of a Quantile for Complete Data

The lognormal and Weibull distributions are the most popular distributions for modeling lifetime data. In practical applications, they usually fit the data at hand well. However, their predictions may lead to large differences. The main purpose of the present article is to investigate the impacts of mis-specification between the lognormal and Weibull distributions on the interval estimation of a pth quantile of the distributions for complete data. The coverage probabilities of the confidence intervals (CIs) with mis-specification are evaluated. The results indicate that for both the lognormal and the Weibull distributions, the coverage probabilities are significantly influenced by mis-specification, especially for a small or a large p on lower or upper tail of the distributions. In addition, based on the coverage probabilities with correct and mis-specification, a maxmin criterion is proposed to make a choice between these two distributions. The numerical results indicate that for p ≤ 0.05 and 0.6 ≤ p ≤ 0.8, Weibull distribution is suggested to evaluate CIs of a pth quantile of the distributions, while, for 0.2 ≤ p ≤ 0.5 and p = 0.99, lognormal distribution is suggested to evaluate CIs of a pth quantile of the distributions. Besides, for p = 0.9 and 0.95, lognormal distribution is suggested if the sample size is large enough, while, for p = 0.1, Weibull distribution is suggested if the sample size is large enough. Finally, a simulation study is conducted to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed method.