Two tests for sequential detection of a change-point in a nonlinear model

In this paper, two tests, based on weighted CUSUM of the least squares residuals, are studied to detect in real time a change-point in a nonlinear model. A first test statistic is proposed by extension of a method already used in the literature but for the linear models. It is tested under the null hypothesis, at each sequential observation, that there is no change in the model against a change presence. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis is given and its convergence in probability to infinity is proved when a change occurs. These results will allow to build an asymptotic critical region. Next, in order to decrease the type I error probability, a bootstrapped critical value is proposed and a modified test is studied in a similar way. A generalization of the Hájek–Rényi inequality is established.     

A new two-sample test for choosing between log-rank and Wilcoxon tests with right-censored data

When differences of survival functions are located in early time, a Wilcoxon test is the best test, but when differences of survival functions are located in late time, using a log-rank test is better. Therefore, a researcher needs a stable test in these situations. In this paper, a new two-sample test is proposed and considered. This test is distribution-free. This test is useful for choosing between log-rank and Wilcoxon tests. Its power is roughly the maximal power of the log-rank test and Wilcoxon test.     

Testing Parameter Constancy in Stationary Vector Autoregressive Models Against Continuous Change

In this article we derive a parameter constancy test of a stationary vector autoregressive model against the hypothesis that the parameters of the model change smoothly over time. A single structural break is contained in this alternative hypothesis as a special case. The test is a generalization of a single-equation test of a similar hypothesis proposed in the literature. An advantage here is that the asymptotic distribution theory is standard. The performance of the tests is compared to that of generalized Chow-tests and found satisfactory in terms of both size and power.     

On the measurement and analysis of asymmetry with applications to facial modelling

Summary.  Asymmetry is a feature of shape which is of particular interest in a variety of applications. With landmark data, the essential information on asymmetry is contained in the degree to which there is a mismatch between a landmark configuration and its relabelled and matched reflection. This idea is explored in the context of a study of facial shape in infants, where particular interest lies in identifying changes over time and in assessing residual deformity in children who have had corrective surgery for a cleft lip or cleft lip and palate. Interest lies not in whether the mean shape is asymmetric but in comparing the degrees of asymmetry in different populations. A decomposition of the asymmetry score into components that are attributable to particular features of the face is proposed. A further decomposition allows different sources of asymmetry due to position, orientation or intrinsic asymmetry to be identified for each feature. The methods are also extended to data representing anatomical curves across the face.     

Parameterization and inference for nonparametric regression problems

We consider local likelihood or local estimating equations, in which a multivariate function () is estimated but a derived function () of () is of interest. In many applications, when most naturally formulated the derived function is a non-linear function of (). In trying to understand whether the derived non-linear function is constant or linear, a problem arises with this approach: when the function is actually constant or linear, the expectation of the function estimate need not be constant or linear, at least to second order. In such circumstances, the simplest standard methods in nonparametric regression for testing whether a function is constant or linear cannot be applied. We develop a simple general solution which is applicable to nonparametric regression, varying-coefficient models, nonparametric generalized linear models, etc. We show that, in local linear kernel regression, inference about the derived function () is facilitated without a loss of power by reparameterization so that () is itself a component of (). Our approach is in contrast with the standard practice of choosing () for convenience and allowing ()> to be a non-linear function of (). The methods are applied to an important data set in nutritional epidemiology.     

Estimation of Several Intraclass Correlation Coefficients

An intraclass correlation coefficient observed in several populations is estimated. The basis is a variance-stabilizing transformation. It is shown that the intraclass correlation coefficient from any elliptical distribution should be transformed in the same way. Four estimators are compared. An estimator where the components in a vector consisting of the transformed intraclass correlation coefficients are estimated separately, an estimator based on a weighted average of these components, a pretest estimator where the equality of the components is tested and then the outcome of the test is used in the estimation procedure, and a James-Stein estimator which shrinks toward the mean.     

On choosing between fixed and random block effects in some no-interaction models

The purpose of this article is to strengthen the understanding of the relationship between a fixed-blocks and random-blocks analysis in models that do not include interactions between treatments and blocks. Treating the block effects as random has been recommended in the literature for balanced incomplete block designs (BIBD) because it results in smaller variances of treatment contrasts. This reduction in variance is large if the block-to-block variation relative to the total variation is small. However, this analysis is also more complicated because it results in a subjective interpretation of results if the block variance component is non-positive. The probability of a non-positive variance component is large precisely in those situations where a random-blocks analysis is useful – that is, when the block-to-block variation, relative to the total variation, is small. In contrast, the analysis in which the block effects are fixed is computationally simpler and less subjective. The loss in power for some BIBD with a fixed effects analysis is trivial. In such cases, we recommend treating the block effects as fixed. For response surface experiments designed in blocks, however, an opposite recommendation is made. When block effects are fixed, the variance of the estimated response surface is not uniquely estimated, and in practice this variance is obtained by ignoring the block effect. It is argued that a more reasonable approach is to treat the block effects to be random than to ignore it.     

Geometric aspects of deletion diagnostics in multivariate regression

In multivariate regression, a graphical diagnostic method of detecting observations that are influential in estimating regression coefficients is introduced. It is based on the principal components and their variances obtained from the covariance matrix of the probability distribution for the change in the estimator of the matrix of unknown regression coefficients due to a single-case deletion. As a result, each deletion statistic obtained in a form of matrix is transformed into a two-dimensional quantity. Its univariate version is also introduced in a little different way. No distributional form is assumed. For illustration, we provide a numerical example in which the graphical method introduced here is seen to be effective in getting information about influential observations.     

Semiparametric Bayesian Inference for Time Series with Mixed Spectra

A Bayesian analysis is presented of a time series which is the sum of a stationary component with a smooth spectral density and a deterministic component consisting of a linear combination of a trend and periodic terms. The periodic terms may have known or unknown frequencies. The advantage of our approach is that different features of the data—such as the regression parameters, the spectral density, unknown frequencies and missing observations—are combined in a hierarchical Bayesian framework and estimated simultaneously. A Bayesian test to detect deterministic components in the data is also constructed. By using an asymptotic approximation to the likelihood, the computation is carried out efficiently using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method in O ( Mn ) operations, where n is the sample size and M is the number of iterations. We show empirically that our approach works well on real and simulated samples.     

A robust test for autocorrelation in the presence of a structural break in variance

It has been known that when there is a break in the variance (unconditional heteroskedasticity) of the error term in linear regression models, a routine application of the Lagrange multiplier (LM) test for autocorrelation can cause potentially significant size distortions. We propose a new test for autocorrelation that is robust in the presence of a break in variance. The proposed test is a modified LM test based on a generalized least squares regression. Monte Carlo simulations show that the new test performs well in finite samples and it is especially comparable to other existing heteroskedasticity-robust tests in terms of size, and much better in terms of power.     

A goodness-of-fit test for generalized error distribution

The Generalized Error Distribution is a widespread flexible family of symmetric probability distribution. Thanks to its properties it is becoming more and more popular in many science fields therefore determining if a sample is drawn from a GED is an important issue that usually is pursued with a graphical approach. In this paper we present a new goodness-of-fit test for GED that shows good performances for detecting non GED distribution when the alternative distribution is either skewed or a mixture. A comparison between well known tests and this new procedure is performed through a simulation study. We have developed a function that performs the analysis described in this paper in the R environment. The computational time required to compute this procedure is negligible.     

A Class of Multiplicative Estimators of Laspeyres Price Indexes

Publication of indexes measuring changes in prices of retail, wholesale, export, and import items is an important part of many governmental statistics programs. One form of price index that is often used is the fixed-base Laspeyres, in which a fixed market basket of goods is priced over time. This article introduces a new class of multiplicative estimators of Laspeyres indexes. The optimum within the class is derived for long-term price change and compared with two other members of the class when used for estimating both long-term and short-term change. Theoretical properties are derived under a model in which long-term relative price changes for individual items have common within-stratum means and are correlated over time. Theory for long-term and short-term change estimators is tested in a simulation study in which a large number of stratified probability samples is selected from a population extracted from items priced for the U.S. consumer price index.     

Partition of a query set into minimal number of subsets having consecutive retrieval property

This paper is concerned with information retrieval. The basic problem is how to store large masses of data in such a way that whenever information regarding some particular aspect of the data is needed, such information is easily and efficiently retrieved. Work in this field is thus very important for organizations dealing with large classes of data.The consecutive retrieval (C-R) property defined by S.P. Ghosh is an important relation between a set of queries and a set of records. Its existence enables the design of information retrieval system with a minimal search time and no redundant storage in that the records can be organized in such a way that those pertinent to any query are stored in consecutive storage locations. The C-R property, however, can not exist between every arbitrary query set and every record set.A subset of the query set Q having the C-R property is called a C-R subset and a C-R subset having the maximum cardinality is called the maximal C-R subset. A partition of Q is called the C-R partition if every subset has the C-R property. A C-R partition with minimum number of subsets is called the minimal C-R partition. With respect to the set of all binary queries and the set of all binary records, it is shown that the maximal cardinality of a C-R subset is 2l-1 where l is the number of attributes concerned. A combinatorial characterization of a maximal C-R subset is also given. A lower bound on the number of subsets in a C-R partition and several examples which attain the lower bound are given. A general procedure for obtaining a minimal C-R partition which attains the lower bound is given provided the number of attributes is even.     

Two-stage factor screening procedures using multiple grouping assignments

A generalization of the group screening technique for finding the non-negligible factors in a first order model is presented. In conventional screening designs, each factor is assigned to a single factor group, and the sum of effects associated with each group is estimated in the first stage. The new designs assign a factor to multiple groups in the first stage. An individual effect is estimated in the second stage only if each group to which the corresponding factor is assigned is “active” in the first stage. The performance of these designs is compared to conventional group screening designs for cases in which the direction of each factor, if active, is assumed known a priori and measurement error is negligible.     

A smoothed em algorithm for the solution of wicksell's corpuscle problem

In this paper a new method called the EMS algorithm is used to solve Wicksell's corpuscle problem, that is the determination of the distribution of the sphere radii in a medium given the radii of their profiles in a random slice. The EMS algorithm combines the EM algorithm, a procedure for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of parameters from incomplete data, with simple smoothing. The method is tested on simulated data from three different sphere radii densities, namely a bimodal mixture of Normals, a Weibull and a Normal. The effect of varying the level of smoothing, the number of classes in which the data is binned and the number of classes for which the estimated density is evaluated, is investigated. Comparisons are made between these results and those obtained by others in this field.     

Measuring association between nominal categorical variables: an alternative to the Goodman–Kruskal lambda

As a measure of association between two nominal categorical variables, the lambda coefficient or Goodman–Kruskal's lambda has become a most popular measure. Its popularity is primarily due to its simple and meaningful definition and interpretation in terms of the proportional reduction in error when predicting a random observation's category for one variable given (versus not knowing) its category for the other variable. It is an asymmetric measure, although a symmetric version is available. The lambda coefficient does, however, have a widely recognized limitation: it can equal zero even when there is no independence between the variables and when all other measures take on positive values. In order to mitigate this problem, an alternative lambda coefficient is introduced in this paper as a slight modification of the Goodman–Kruskal lambda. The properties of the new measure are discussed and a symmetric form is introduced. A statistical inference procedure is developed and a numerical example is provided.     

A practical method to calculate probabilities: illustrative example from the electronic industry business

The real-life environment is made of probabilistic data by nature and the ability to make decisions based on probabilities is crucial in the business world. It is common to have a set of data and the need of calculating the probability of taking a value greater or less than a specific value. It is also common in many companies the unavailability of a statistical software or a specialized professional in statistics. The purpose of this paper is to present a practical and simple method to calculate probabilities from normal or non-normal distributed data set and illustrate it with an application from the electronic industry. The method does not demand statistical knowledge from the user; there is no need of normality assumptions, goodness test or transformations. The proposed method is easy to implement, robust and the experiments have evidenced its quality. The technique is validated with a large variety of instances and compared with the well-known Johnson system of distributions.     

Testing parametric models in linear‐directional regression

This paper presents a goodness‐of‐fit test for parametric regression models with scalar response and directional predictor, that is, a vector on a sphere of arbitrary dimension. The testing procedure is based on the weighted squared distance between a smooth and a parametric regression estimator, where the smooth regression estimator is obtained by a projected local approach. Asymptotic behaviour of the test statistic under the null hypothesis and local alternatives is provided, jointly with a consistent bootstrap algorithm for application in practice. A simulation study illustrates the performance of the test in finite samples. The procedure is applied to test a linear model in text mining.     

Independence in Contingency Tables Using Simplicial Geometry

Frequently, contingency tables are generated in a multinomial sampling. Multinomial probabilities are then organized in a table assigning probabilities to each cell. A probability table can be viewed as an element in the simplex. The Aitchison geometry of the simplex identifies independent probability tables as a linear subspace. An important consequence is that, given a probability table, the nearest independent table is obtained by orthogonal projection onto the independent subspace. The nearest independent table is identified as that obtained by the product of geometric marginals, which do not coincide with the standard marginals, except in the independent case. The original probability table is decomposed into orthogonal tables, the independent and the interaction tables. The underlying model is log-linear, and a procedure to test independence of a contingency table, based on a multinomial simulation, is developed. Its performance is studied on an illustrative example.