Methods for calculating stationary distribution in linear models of time series

The article deals with methods for computing the stationary marginal distribution in linear models of time series. Two approaches are described. First, an algorithm based on approximation of solution of the corresponding integral equation is briefly reviewed. Then, we study the limit behaviour of the partial sums c ₁ η₁+c ₂ η₂+···+c _n η _n where η _i are i.i.d. random variables and c _i real constants. We generalize procedure of Haiman (1998) [Haiman, G., 1998, Upper and lower bounds for the tail of the invariant distribution of some AR(1) processes. Asymptotic Methods in Probability and Statistics, 45, 723–730.] to an arbitrary causal linear process and relax the assumptions of his result significantly. This is achieved by investigating the properties of convolution of densities.     

An Estimator of the Exponent of Regular Variation Based on K-Record Values

Let {X _n:n ≥ 1} be an i.i.d. sequence of random variables with a continuous distribution function F. Under the assumption that the upper tail of Fis regularly varying with exponent 1/α, α > 0, we study the asymptotic properties of an estimator of α based on k-record values.     

A sequential design for a clinical trial with a linear prognostic factor

We study a randomized adaptive design to assign one of the L$L$ treatments to patients who arrive sequentially by means of an urn model. At each stage n$n$, a reward is distributed between treatments. The treatment applied is rewarded according to its response, 0?_Yn?1$0?Y_n?1$, and 1-_Yn$1-Y_n$ is distributed among the other treatments according to their performance until stage n-1$n-1$. Patients can be classified in K+1$K+1$ levels and we assume that the effect of this level in the response to the treatments is linear. We study the asymptotic behavior of the design when the ordinary least square estimators are used as a measure of performance until stage n-1$n-1$.     

Changepoint Problems Under Random Censorship

Let X ₁, …, X _[nθ], X _{[nθ] + 1}, …, X _n be a sequence of independent random variables (the “lifetimes”) such that X _j ? F ₁ for 1 ≤ j ≤ [nθ] and X _j ? F ₂ for [nθ] + 1 ≤ j ≤ n, with F ₁ ≠ F ₂ unknown. In this paper we investigate an estimator θ _n for the changepoint θ if the X's are subject to censoring. The rate of almost sure convergence of θ _n to θ is established and a test for the hypothesis θ = 0, i.e. “no change”, is proposed.     

On the asymptotic normality of the L1- and L2-errors in histogram density estimation

The L₁ and L₂-errors of the histogram estimate of a density f from a sample X₁,X₂,…,Xn using a cubic partition are shown to be asymptotically normal without any unnecessary conditions imposed on the density f. The asymptotic variances are shown to depend on f only through the corresponding norm of f. From this follows the asymptotic null distribution of a goodness-of-fit test based on the total variation distance, introduced by Györfi and van der Meulen (1991). This note uses the idea of partial inversion for obtaining characteristic functions of conditional distributions, which goes back at least to Bartlett (1938).     

Prediction in moving average processes

For the stationary invertible moving average process of order one with unknown innovation distribution F, we construct root-n   consistent plug-in estimators of conditional expectations E(h(_Xn+1)|_X1,…,_Xn)$E(h(X_{n+1})|X_1,\dots ,X_n)$. More specifically, we give weak conditions under which such estimators admit Bahadur-type representations, assuming some smoothness of h or of F. For fixed h it suffices that h   is locally of bounded variation and locally Lipschitz in _L2(F)$L_2(F)$, and that the convolution of h and F   is continuously differentiable. A uniform representation for the plug-in estimator of the conditional distribution function P(_Xn+1?·|_X1,…,_Xn)$P(X_{n+1}?·|X_1,\dots ,X_n)$ holds if F has a uniformly continuous density. For a smoothed version of our estimator, the Bahadur representation holds uniformly over each class of functions h that have an appropriate envelope and whose shifts are F-Donsker, assuming some smoothness of F. The proofs use empirical process arguments.     

Die waldsche fundamentalidentität und ein sequentieller quotiententest für eine zufäallige irrfahrtüber einer homogenen irreduziblen markovschen kette mit endlichem zustandsraum

For a random walk {R _n ≥0} given on a homogeneous irreducible finite MARKOV chain {X _n ≥0} the identity (8) is obtained. Generalizations (14)-(16) of WALD's Fundamental Identity and WALD's first and second equations for the two-dimensional process {(R _n ,X _n ), n≥0} are proved. The Average Sample Number (21)-(22) and the Operating Characteristic Function (24)-(25) of a Sequential Probability Ratio Test follow. With this test a decision about two simple hypotheses on the unknown transition probability matrix of {X _n , n≥0} and the unknown parameters of the probability distributions for the increments of {X _n , n≥0} can be made. For a special case these results were proved by PHATARFOD [6] and KüCHLER [3] with other methods.     

A stochastic Newton-Raphson method

A stochastic approximation procedure of the Robbins-Monro type is considered. The original idea behind the Newton-Raphson method is used as follows. Given n approximations X₁,…, X_n with observations Y₁,…, Y_n, a least squares line is fitted to the points (X_m, Y_m),…, (X_n, Y_n) where m<n may depend on n. The (n+1)st approximation is taken to be the intersection of the least squares line with y=0. A variation of the resulting process is studied. It is shown that this process yields a strongly consistent sequence of estimates which is asymptotically normal with minimal asymptotic variance.     

Nonparametric methods in multivariate factorial designs for large number of factor levels

We propose different multivariate nonparametric tests for factorial designs and derive their asymptotic distribution for the situation where the number of replications is limited, whereas the number of treatments goes to infinity (large a, small n case). The tests are based on separate rankings for the different variables, and they are therefore invariant under separate monotone transformations of the individual variables.     

The Likelihood Ratio Test for the Presence of Immunes in a Censored Sample

Models for populations with immune or cured individuals but with others subject to failure are important in many areas, such as medical statistics and criminology. One method of analysis of data from such populations involves estimating an immune proportion 1 ? p and the parameter(s) of a failure distribution for those individuals subject to failure. We use the exponential distribution with parameter λ for the latter and a mixture of this distribution with a mass 1 ? p at infinity to model the complete data. This paper develops the asymptotic theory of a test for whether an immune proportion is indeed present in the population, i.e., for H ₀:p = 1. This involves testing at the boundary of the parameter space for p. We use a likelihood ratio test for H ₀. and prove that minus twice the logarithm of the likelihood ratio has as an asymptotic distribution, not the chi-square distribution, but a 50–50 mixture of a chi-square distribution with 1 degree of freedom, and a point mass at 0. The result is proved under an independent censoring assumption with very mild restrictions.     

Robust median estimator in logistic regression

This paper introduces a median estimator of the logistic regression parameters. It is defined as the classical _L1$L_1$-estimator applied to continuous data _Z1,…,_Zn$Z_1,\dots ,Z_n$ obtained by a statistical smoothing of the original binary logistic regression observations _Y1,…,_Yn$Y_1,\dots ,Y_n$. Consistency and asymptotic normality of this estimator are proved. A method called enhancement is introduced which in some cases increases the efficiency of this estimator. Sensitivity to contaminations and leverage points is studied by simulations and compared in this manner with the sensitivity of some robust estimators previously introduced to the logistic regression. The new estimator appears to be more robust for larger sample sizes and higher levels of contamination.     

Rate of consistency of one sample tests of location

Let X₁,…,X_n be a sample from a population with continuous distribution function F(x?θ) such that F(x)+F(-x)=1 and 0<F(x)<1, x?R¹. It is shown that the power- function of a monotone test of H: θ=θ₀ against K: θ>θ₀ cannot tend to 1 as θ?θ₀ → ∞ more than n times faster than the tails of F tend to 0. Some standard as well as robust tests are considered with respect to this rate of convergence.     

The consistency of a matching test

Let $\text{X}{}^1{}_1\text{?X}{}^1{}_2\text{???X}{}^1{}_{\mathrm{n}}$ be the order statistics of a random sample from a distribution on [0, 1]. Let A_k, the kth match, be the event that $\text{X}{}^1{}_{\mathrm{k}}\text{?(}\text{(k?1)}\text{n}\text{k}\text{n}$], and let S_n be the total number of matches. The consistency of S_n for testing uniform df, U, against df G≠U is investigated, and it is shown that S_n is consistent if the intersection of G with U has Lebesgue measure zero. It is also consistent against a sequence of alternatives approaching U at a rate less faster than $\text{n}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>-1</mtext><mtext>2</mtext>}}$.     

Multivariate orthogonal series estimates for random design regression

In this paper a new multivariate regression estimate is introduced. It is based on ideas derived in the context of wavelet estimates and is constructed by hard thresholding of estimates of coefficients of a series expansion of the regression function. Multivariate functions constructed analogously to the classical Haar wavelets are used for the series expansion. These functions are orthogonal in _L2(_μn)$L_2({\mu }_n)$, where _μn${\mu }_n$ denotes the empirical design measure. The construction can be considered as designing adapted Haar wavelets.     

Analysis of multivariate categorical data with misclassification errors by triple sampling schemes

Previous work has been carried out on the use of double-sampling schemes for inference from categorical data subject to misclassification. The double-sampling schemes utilize a sample of n units classified by both a fallible and true device and another sample of n₂ units classified only by a fallible device. In actual applications, one often hasavailable a third sample of n₁ units, which is classified only by the true device. In this article we develop techniques of fitting log-linear models under various misclassification structures for a general triple-sampling scheme. The estimation is by maximum likelihood and the fitted models are hierarchical. The methodology is illustrated by applying it to data in traffic safety research from a study on the effectiveness of belts in reducing injuries.     

Empirical Bayes regression analysis with many regressors but fewer observations

In this paper, we consider the prediction problem in multiple linear regression model in which the number of predictor variables, p, is extremely large compared to the number of available observations, n  . The least-squares predictor based on a generalized inverse is not efficient. We propose six empirical Bayes estimators of the regression parameters. Three of them are shown to have uniformly lower prediction error than the least-squares predictors when the vector of regressor variables are assumed to be random with mean vector zero and the covariance matrix (1/n)X^tX$(1/n){\mathit{X}}^{\mathrm{t}}\mathit{X}$ where X^t=(_x1,…,_xn)${\mathit{X}}^{\mathrm{t}}=({\mathit{x}}_1,\dots ,{\mathit{x}}_n)$ is the p×n$p\times n$ matrix of observations on the regressor vector centered from their sample means. For other estimators, we use simulation to show its superiority over the least-squares predictor.     

Nonparametric statistical procedures for the changepoint problem

Let X₁,…,X_r?1,X_r,X_r+1,…,X_n be independent, continuous random variables such that X_i, i = 1,…,r, has distribution function F(x), and X_i, i = r+1,…,n, has distribution function F(x?Δ), with -∞ <Δ< ∞. When the integer r is unknown, this is refered to as a change point problem with at most one change. The unknown parameter Δ represents the magnitude of the change and r is called the changepoint. In this paper we present a general review discussion of several nonparametric approaches for making inferences about r and Δ.     

Characterizations of geometric distribution and discrete IFR (DFR) distributions using order statistics

Let X be a discrete random variable the set of possible values (finite or infinite) of which can be arranged as an increasing sequence of real numbers a₁<a₂<a₃<…. In particular, a_i could be equal to i for all i. Let X_1n≦X_2n≦?≦X_nn denote the order statistics in a random sample of size n drawn from the distribution of X, where n is a fixed integer ≧2. Then, we show that for some arbitrary fixed k(2≦k≦n), independence of the event {X_kn=X_1n} and X_1n is equivalent to X being either degenerate or geometric. We also show that the montonicity in i of P{X_kn = X_1n | X_1n = a_i} is equivalent to X having the IFR (DFR) property. Let a_i = i and $\text{G(i) = P(X≧i), i = 1, 2, …}$. We prove that the independence of {X_2n ? X_1n ∈B} and X_1n for all i is equivalent to X being geometric, where B = {m} (B = {m,m+1,…}), provided G(i) = q^i?1, 1≦i≦m+2 (1≦i≦m+1), where 0<q<1.