A deterministic model for the housing decision

The decision to rent or buy housing, or to choose among various housing acquisition alternatives, represents an important and complex financial problem, which confronts virtually all individuals. This paper develops a comprehensive model (within the institutional and legislative context of the United States) which provides theoretically appropriate criteria for evaluating personal housing alternatives. Empirical results clearly indicate the economic consequences of housing alternatives, and both substantiate some and contradict other “wisdoms” concerning the housing decision.     

A quantitative model for manpower decision making

Today's society is continually influenced by various changes, requiring managers to plan for manpower requirements. An approach that can be used by firms to solve one of the most pressing of today's employment problems is examined. In effect, the problem becomes one of determining an optimal work force composition based on both sociological and skill components. The problem is viewed as one of establishing rank ordered priorities among multiple conflicting manpower objectives. This study discusses some of the internal and external constraints faced by the firm and suggests a particular technique, goal programming, to facilitate the manpower decision-making process. The technique is examined under two different circumstances to provide some indication of the model's flexibility.     

GDSS的基本决策网络模型

为构建 GDSS决策网络引入一个分析模型——决策网络图来研究任务环境和组织设计之间的交互作用 ,提出 GDSS的基本决策网络结构为级联式和二层多分支树型结构 ,借助概率影响图对该决策网络的优化问题进行了形式描述 ,并给出协同工作方式的分类和任务环境的分析步骤 .     

An economic decision model for technology transfer

Technology transfer is essential in the economic development of developing countries. Problems created by technology transfer are often identified in the literature. The mode of implementation to achieve success of technology transfer has not been adequately treated. It is the author's contention that some developing countries fail to identify the “appropriate” technology which will suit their needs. In order to achieve successful technology transfer, the right type of technology must be identified. At times, the different types of technology may not be mutually exclusive. This requires the ranking of the different technologies for a particular country. The priority ranking will help developing countries determine how to allocate their limited resources to achieve their overall goal of successful technology transfer. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is suggested as a method to determine the appropriate technology.     

An environmental decision model for dynamic planning

In the complex, rapidly changing environment facing the modern business enterprise, it has become increasingly difficult to make meaningful predictions concerning future activities. As such, it is especially important for the decision maker to seek means of gathering and evaluating information. Due to the immense amounts of subjective data, the need arises for the development of valid techniques for identifying and quantifying relevant information.Writers in the area of organization theory have emphasized the importance of the relationship between and organization and processes occurring within its environment to the extent that these environmental processes and their impact are considered vital to the ultimate survival of the firm. The Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique (GERT) is an analytical process upon which simulation models can be developed to examine the effect of more sophisticated information processing. The GERT technique serves as an input to decision making and for purposes of analysis will be studied under conditions of the disturbed reactive environment.The essential method upon which this study is based is the development of a model designed to capture the characteristics of the environment. The model in turn is tested under various conditions and changing sets of information to arrive at some idea of the possible implications for decision making under a situation affected by more and different information usage.     

A multicriteria decision analysis model for faculty evaluation

In the context of increasing demands for social and financial accountability of universities, the required implementation of transparent faculty evaluation systems constitutes a challenge and an opportunity for universities strategically aligning the activity of academic staff with the university goals. However, despite growing interest in the performance appraisal of faculty, only a few reported studies propose models that cover the full range of academic activities and the models in use are typically based on ad hoc scoring systems that lack theoretical soundness. This article approaches faculty evaluation from an innovative comprehensive perspective. Based on the concepts and methods of multiple criteria value measurement, it proposes a new faculty evaluation model that addresses the whole range of academic activities and can be applied within and across distinct scientific areas, while respecting their specificities. Constructed through a socio-technical process, the model was designed for and adopted by the Instituto Superior Técnico, the engineering school of the Technical University of Lisbon. The model has a two-level hierarchical additive structure, with top-level evaluation areas specified by second-level evaluation criteria. A bottom non-additive third level accounts for the quantitative and qualitative dimensions of academic activity related to each evaluation criterion. The model allows (a) the comparison of the performance of academic staff with performance targets reflecting the strategic policy concerns of university management; (b) the definition of the multicriteria value profile of each faculty member at the top level of the evaluation areas; (c) the computation of an overall value score for each faculty member, through an optimisation procedure that makes use of a flexible system of weights and (d) the assignment of faculty members to rating categories.     

An assessment of sustainable housing affordability using a multiple criteria decision making method

Housing affordability is a complex issue that must not only be assessed in terms economic viability. In order to increase quality of life and community sustainability the environmental and social sustainability of housing must also be taken into consideration.     

需求预测综合模型及其与库存决策的集成研究

准确的预测有助于企业做出有效的决策,包括生产计划、定价和促销决策等,以减少库存、提高客户满意度和企业竞争力． 以快速消费品为研究对象,分析其需求影响因素,建立了时间序列分析与多元回归整合的需求预测综合模型; 将此预测模型引入到库存决策中,构建了基于库存成本最小的需求预测与库存决策集成模型,并借助变邻域搜索算法获得模型的参数值; 最后,选用实际数据,验证了所构建的需求预测综合模型、物流需求预测与库存决策集成模型及其求解方法的有效性．     

A multicriteria decision making model for reverse logistics using analytical hierarchy process

Product recovery activities such as recycling, refurbishing and direct reuse are becoming integral to manufacturing supply chains. This study presents a multicriteria decision making model for reverse logistics using analytical hierarchy process (AHP). The AHP model evaluates a hierarchy of criteria and subcriteria, including costs and business relations, for critical decisions regarding network design. Using sensitivity analysis with AHP, the work provides insights into the preference ordering among eight alternative network configurations. For instance, the choice of test sites is largely dependent on the potential for cost savings on testing procedures and transportation of scrap, and this decision is not sensitive to the importance of business relations. By contrast, the choice of collection sites is largely determined by the relative importance of business relations considerations vs. cost considerations. As well, the processing location decision favors a third-party reprocessor if there is little need to protect proprietary product knowledge and cost savings is very important. The model is demonstrated using three case studies of real-world applications.     

房价波动、 收入水平对住房消费的影响——基于SYS-GMM估计方法的区域差异分析

基于生命周期-持久收入假说,在一般随机Ramsey模型的基础上,推导包含房价、收入和财富的住房消费函数,利用2002年至2013年31个省直辖市的面板数据,采用两步System-GMM估计方法考察我国房价波动和居民收入水平对住房消费的影响.实证结果表明:房价波动对全国居民住房消费具有显著的抑制作用;其中,滞后期和当期房价波动与当期住房消费负相关,挤出效应明显;未来一期房价波动与住房消费变化方向一致,存在积极的财富效应;此外,房价波动对东中西部各地区居民住房消费的抑制作用存在较大差异,西部地区抑制效应最为明显;滞后期住房消费与当期住房消费变动方向一致,人均可支配收入波动和人均年底储蓄余额对我国人均住房消费都起着重要的支撑作用.     

Testing for Regime Switching

We analyze use of a quasi‐likelihood ratio statistic for a mixture model to test the null hypothesis of one regime versus the alternative of two regimes in a Markov regime‐switching context. This test exploits mixture properties implied by the regime‐switching process, but ignores certain implied serial correlation properties. When formulated in the natural way, the setting is nonstandard, involving nuisance parameters on the boundary of the parameter space, nuisance parameters identified only under the alternative, or approximations using derivatives higher than second order. We exploit recent advances by Andrews (2001) and contribute to the literature by extending the scope of mixture models, obtaining asymptotic null distributions different from those in the literature. We further provide critical values for popular models or bounds for tail probabilities that are useful in constructing conservative critical values for regime‐switching tests. We compare the size and power of our statistics to other useful tests for regime switching via Monte Carlo methods and find relatively good performance. We apply our methods to reexamine the classic cartel study of Porter (1983) and reaffirm Porter's findings.     

房价波动、收入水平对住房消费的影响——基于 SYS-GMM 估计方法的区域差异分析

基于生命周期 － 持久收入假说,在一般随机 Ｒamsey 模型的基础上,推导包含房价、收入和财富的住房消费函数,利用 2002 年至 2013 年 31 个省直辖市的面板数据,采用两步 System-GMM 估计方法考察我国房价波动和居民收入水平对住房消费的影响． 实证结果表明: 房价波动对全国居民住房消费具有显著的抑制作用; 其中,滞后期和当期房价波动与当期住房消费负相关,挤出效应明显; 未来一期房价波动与住房消费变化方向一致,存在积极的财富效应; 此外,房价波动对东中西部各地区居民住房消费的抑制作用存在较大差异,西部地区抑制效应最为明显; 滞后期住房消费与当期住房消费变动方向一致,人均可支配收入波动和人均年底储蓄余额对我国人均住房消费都起着重要的支撑作用．     

违约风险下的信贷决策模型与机制

研究了违约风险下的信贷决策模型与机制,通过以银行个体合理性和激励相容性作为约束条件,建立了在考虑违约风险和项目成功概率条件下的信贷决策模型,分别给出了基于抵质押贷款和信用贷款策略下的信贷决策机制,探讨了信贷配给机制与无配给机制的设计方法,给出了在信贷出现配给时银行发放信用贷款和有抵质押贷款的条件.最后运用实例详细分析并讨论了不同违约概率条件下企业项目成功概率对银行期望收益的影响,得到了银行相应的贷款临界值和在不同项目成功概率条件下银行最大可接受的违约概率.     

基于Agent的情感劝说的决策过程及模型研究

Agent具有情感后进行的劝说决策会更加理性,而现有研究还不够全面深入。针对此问题,首先结合形式逻辑理论,定义了基于Agent的情感劝说及其决策过程,并将基于Agent的情感劝说的决策过程划分为评价情感劝说行为、更新情感劝说状态、调整情感劝说目标、产生情感劝说行为四个阶段;其次针对这四个阶段,结合OCC情感模型和PAD心情模型,运用多属性效用理论,引入情感淡化因子和情感评价因子,定义了Agent情感触发函数,建立了八种Agent基本情感与劝说目标的映射关系,将Agent的情感劝说行为分为奖励型、申辩型、威胁型和反辩型四类,分别构建了相应的决策模型,从而构成了更加完整和合理的基于Agent的情感劝说的决策过程模型;最后通过算例证明了模型的合理性和有效性。     

代理人努力决策柔性的分成制委托代理模型

针对被忽视的代理人努力决策的柔性,在第0期完全信息条件下建立了基于柔性的代理人努力决策模型和委托人的最优分成制合同设计模型,证明了最优分成比例在柔性决策行为假定下的存在性,并与经典的委托-代理模型的结论进行对比分析.结果表明,努力决策柔性将会提高努力所要求的临界市场价格;最优分成比例随着代理人的努力成本增加而增加,随着市场价格的期望增长率和努力的产量的增加而减小,但不会随着市场价格的波动率的增加而降低;当市场状况差时,经典的委托代理理论给出的分成比例将会给予代理人过高的支付.     

基于序列投资的汽车项目投资决策模型

汽车项目投资具有投资大和较高的不确定性特点,一般分阶段进行,可以视为一个序列投资.多个投资阶段之间存在着相互影响,前一阶段的投资应考虑到后续各阶段投资的可能性.以汽车项目投资为背景,运用二叉树决策方法建立了多阶段的序列投资评价模型,并应用实物期权理论对序列投资中各阶段可能创造的价值进行了分析.通过构建基于序列投资评价的汽车项目投资决策模型,可以对汽车企业投资进行评价,有助于做出有效的决策.     

网上超市拆分订单合并打包策略经济决策模型

针对"一地多仓型"网上超市面临的订单拆分难题,以减少订单的拆分包裹数为切入点,提出采用基于仓库的合并打包策略来履行拆分的订单,从而有效降低配送成本,减少顾客扰动和包装废弃物对环境的污染.首先分别建立订单拆分策略和合并打包策略下的履行成本模型,然后在此基础上构建合并打包策略的经济决策模型.从订单规模、平均拆单数这两个关键影响要素对该经济决策模型进行分析,从而得出合并打包策略的经济适用范围,给出管理启示.算例结果验证了模型分析的结论,为网上超市等电商零售企业采用合并打包策略解决拆单难题提供理论指导和决策支持.     

Describing decision bias in the newsvendor problem: A prospect theory model

In the newsvendor setting, we consider a prospect theory model with a stochastic-subjective reference point. The reference point is based on the pay-offs corresponding to the extreme values of demand; and, is influenced by the perception of costs associated with understocking and overstocking, and the pessimism level of the decision maker. Our prospect theory model describes the recent observations in the newsvendor experiments—the non-linear ordering behavior with respect to the profit margin and behavior at the extreme profit margins, in addition to the pull-to-center effect and asymmetry in ordering.