基于多属性逆向拍卖的节能服务公司选择研究

合同能源管理是一种新型的节能机制,节能服务需求方与节能服务公司通过合作共享收益。合同能源管理实施的一个难点是节能服务公司(ESCO)的选择,然而,相关研究尚不充分。本文以政府为节能服务需求方,基于多属性逆向拍卖模型研究了ESCO选择问题。ESCO的投标集由三个属性决定,即节能量、项目完成期以及节能收益分享比例。本文通过非合作博弈研究政府和多ESCO间的逆向拍卖行为,将利润分享比例作为能源节省量与项目提前期的函数,我们推导出各ESCO的最优投标策略;在此基础上,每一个ESCO可以通过自身的技术与能力来决定投标策略;于是,在不忽视利润分享的前提下,政府可以依据能源节省量与项目提起期来挑选最优的ESCO。这种ESCO选择机制回避了节能收益分配的谈判,限制了ESCO间的恶意竞争,从而提高了整个合同能源管理过程的运作效率。仿真研究显示,ESCO数量的增加会降低各方的收益,于是,政府有必要限制参与逆向拍卖的ESCO数量。     

多目标灰线性规划的满意度解法研究

本文首次给出了多目标灰一规划的满意度求解方法，该方法有两个优点：（１）避免了一般求解灰线性规划时解的不完备性；（２）能充分利用决策才的偏好信息，且使决策的偏好信息易于表达     

代价敏感的目标客户选择半监督集成模型研究

在现实的目标客户选择建模中,往往只能获取少量有类别标签的样本,而剩下的大量样本都无法获取类别标签。已有研究大都使用监督式建模研究范式,仅在少量有类别标签样本集上建模,很难取得令人满意的效果。为解决这一问题,本文引入半监督学习（semi-supervised learning,SSL）技术,将其与代价敏感学习（cost sensitive learning,CSL）和多分类器集成中的随机子空间（random subspace,RSS）方法相结合,提出了代价敏感的目标客户选择半监督集成模型（cost-sensitive semi-supervised ensemble model,CSSE）。该模型使用代价敏感的支持向量机（SVM）来解决目标客户选择建模中样本数据类别分布不平衡的问题,还能够同时使用有、无类别标签的客户样本来建模。进一步地,该模型利用RSS方法训练一系列基本分类模型,并通过集成得到最终的分类结果。在某保险公司目标客户选择数据集上进行实证分析,结果表明,与两种监督式集成模型、两种单一的半监督模型以及两种半监督集成模型相比,CSSE模型具有更好的目标客户选择性能。     

应用软件解决AHP问题的实例探讨

选择AHP应用实例——电力研究实验所区位选择决策,从多目标多属性决策的原理出发,探讨了层次分析法(AHP)的使用,重点介绍通过Expert Choice(即EC)软件求解层次分析问题的过程。     

不同决策目标下受资金约束零售商的最优采购策略研究

在提前订购和延时采购两种情景下,分别考虑最大化期望收益和最小化违约概率两种决策目标,对受资金约束零售商的最优采购量和相匹配的融资策略进行分析,结果表明,相比于以最大化期望收益为决策目标,以最小化违约概率为决策目标的零售商在提前订购中将奉行"保守"的采购量和融资策略（仅耗尽自有资金量采购而不融资）,而在延时采购中采取"激进"的采购量和融资策略（与最大化期望收益下一致）;在此基础上,对不同决策目标下受资金约束零售商的最优采购时机问题进行研究发现,在最大化期望收益下,零售商的最优采购时机由产品采购成本、市场容量均值、市场容量方差、自有资金量、银行贷款利率等多个参数共同决定,而在最小化违约概率下,零售商将始终选择延时采购。     

信息不对称下供应链成员的决策顺序研究

市场需求通常是不确定的，而供应链成员之间关于需求信息会存在不对称性。本文采用"信号"博弈（Signaling）的方法，探讨信息不对称结构下供应链成员的最优决策顺序。考虑由两个成员组成的供应链，各成员需要决定自己的边际收益，后决策方可以观测到先决策方的决策，并推测（Infer）市场需求信息。研究表明：1）当信息精确度较低时，拥有信息的一方偏向于先决策，而当信息精确度较高时，其会偏向于后决策；2）无论信息精确度的高低，不拥有信息的一方总是偏向于先决策；3）对于整个供应链而言，当信息精确度较低时，拥有信息的一方先决策较优，而当信息精确度较高时，拥有信息的一方后决策较优。一些结论与直观相悖，取决于"信号"成本（Signaling cost）、先行者优势（First-mover advantage）以及后行者对先行者的反应之间的权衡。     

基于GATS混合策略的多目标优化算法

用遗传算法求解多目标优化问题的难点在于适应值函数难以定义.本文提出一种定义多目标优化问题适应值函数的方式,使遗传算法不仅满足于得到一个决策方案,而是以得到问题的全部非劣解为目标,最终的决策方案由决策人根据自己的偏好来决定.同时为避免提前收敛现象,本文根据遗传算法和Tabu Search算法自身的特点,通过对二者的优势和不足进行分析,提出一种将二者混合使用的求解多目标优化问题的策略.它以遗传算法为基础,用遗传算法作全局搜索,用Tabu Search算法作局部搜索,改进遗传算法的计算结果.     

一类两层多目标决策问题及其交互式决策方法

两层多目标决策问题是。一类非常现实而又非常复杂的问题。本文探讨了问题的决策机制：合作决策机制与独立决策机制,说明了它们的决策求解等价于求解具隐含约束的多目标规划问题。该问题可用增广加权Tchebycheff范数优化问题有效表示其非劣解集,可应用steuer Choo思想设计辅两层多目标决策的交互式方法。     

平台模式下农民合作社与供应链协调研究——以农户主导视角

针对众创平台模式下农民专业合作社与供应链协调问题。在农地流转背景下提出了一种农户主导供应链的多阶段斯坦科尔伯格博弈模型,设计了一种集中决策模式和四种分散决策模式,考虑了风险传递、决策优先权、边际成本和风险成本问题,构建了农场主、合作社、小农户和平台以农户数量（或合作比例）、土地流转收益、增产率和期望销售目标等共同影响的利润最大化模型,得到了最优土地流转收益和最大化利润所满足的方程;发现农户数量（或合作比例）、收益分配率、销售目标等因素都会对最优解产生影响。通过数值模拟,发现农场主（或合作社）优先权可以提高农场主（或合作社）利润;在一定条件下,合作社模式可以实现供应链协调;在农场主（或合作社）模式中平台和小农户利润通常是较低的;在供应链协调和小农户利润不降低的前提下,可以通过有效途径对平台利润差额进行补偿以保证合作社模式持续均衡。     

并联系统资源和目标配置双准则DEA模型

针对决策单元内部资源和目标配置问题,以并联生产系统为研究对象,研究数据包络分析方法在组织的资源分配与目标设定方面的应用.首先考虑决策单元内部评价的特点:(1)固定投入和固定产出;(2)子单元评价的权重选择之间的关系;(3)内部评价权重选择与决策单元整体评价的关系.在此基础上,提出基于效率与公平的决策单元内部资源和目标配置双准则DEA模型,最后用算例演示其使用,以说明模型的合理性.     

碳交易政策下节能服务公司参与供应链合作减排策略研究

在碳交易政策背景下,采用Stackelberg博弈模型来探讨节能服务公司参与的供应链合作减排策略问题。通过建立供应链上下游企业分散决策、集中决策、与节能服务公司合作三种模式下的博弈模型,对其利润和减排效果进行比较分析,得到了节能服务公司参与减排的条件和利润分享比例。研究表明：当供应链减排投资系数与节能服务公司减排投资系数的比值达到一定阈值时,供应链的最优选择是与节能服务公司合作;三种模式下供应链的总利润和减排率排序均为：与节能服务公司合作时最高,其次是集中决策,最后是分散决策。与节能服务公司合作的情况下,供应链减排率与节能效益分享比例呈现反向变动关系。最后通过算例对以上结果进行了验证和分析。     

多性质多目标模糊指派模型在市政工程开发商选择中的应用

考虑了指派问题中涉及到多个目标要求的情况,包括定量目标和定性目标。首先,使用模糊数学的方法将定量目标下的效率值矩阵转化为优选决策矩阵,同时提出了定性目标的量化方法,并建立了定性目标的优选决策矩阵。然后,将各个目标要求下的优选决策矩阵进行了合成,考虑了综合效益对于“优”和“劣”之间多个等级的相对隶属度,建立了多性质、多目标模糊数学模型,得到了分级特征值矩阵。最后,与传统指派模型相结合形成了多性质、多目标模糊指派数学模型,使用匈牙利算法对该模型进行了求解,并结合市政工程在开发商之间分配的例子进行了分析说明。     

基于改进粒子群优化方法的供应商优选与订货量分配模型

研究了随机性需求环境下的供应商优选与订货量分配问题,构建了以质量、成本、交货期3个准则为目标函数、以其他目标为约束条件的多目标随机约束规划模型;借助于加权法和罚函数法,将多目标随机约束规划模型转化为单目标优化模型;进而设计了带惯性因子和收缩因子的粒子群优化求解算法对所建模型进行求解,并与常用的遗传算法求解方法进行对比分析,实例验证了粒子群优化算法解决此类优化问题的可行性和有效性.     

An integrated method for cognitive complex multiple experts multiple criteria decision making based on ELECTRE III with weighted Borda rule

The ELECTRE (ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la REalité, in French) is an effective multiple criteria decision making method based on comparative analysis. Among the family of the ELECTRE methods and their extensions, the ELECTRE III is widely used since it can tackle uncertain and imprecise information. The hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set can represent people's perceptions more comprehensively and flexibly than exact numbers especially in cognitive complex decision-making process. In this paper, we develop an integrated method based on the ELECTRE III to handle the cognitive complex multiple experts multiple criteria decision making problems in which the cognitive complex information is represented by hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets and the outranking relations between alternatives are calculated by a novel score-function-based distance measure between hesitant fuzzy linguistic elements. A combinative weight-determining method involving both subjective and objective opinions of experts is introduced to derive the weights of criteria. After obtaining the ranking of alternatives from each experts’ decision matrix by the distillation algorithm, the weighted Borda rule is implemented to aggregate the rankings of alternatives regarding different experts. Some ordinal consensus measures are introduced to identify the reliability of the final ranking result. An application of hospital ranking in China is provided to validate the efficiency of the proposed method.     

Energy Performance Contracting in a Competitive Environment*

Energy Performance Contracting (EPC) is an important and effective energy conservation mechanism, under which an energy service company (ESCO) provides an energy‐saving service to its client and shares the resulting energy cost savings. Using a game‐theoretic model, we investigate the impacts of EPC on two competing manufacturers, of which one is more energy‐efficient in production than the other. The less energy‐efficient firm first proposes an energy‐saving sharing contract to the more energy‐efficient firm, who, if accepting the contract, acts as an ESCO that decides the energy‐saving target and helps realize it for the client. Then the firms engage in Cournot competition by producing/selling substitutable products. By solving the equilibrium solutions, we show that under an EPC project, the total production quantity of both firms increases (so the market price of the product decreases) with the ESCO producing less while its client producing more, which also leads to a higher consumer surplus. Meanwhile, both manufactures are better off under EPC and would obtain strictly higher profits when the service cost rate is high. Nevertheless, EPC may not result in a better environmental performance in that the total energy consumption of both firms may be higher under EPC, which happens when the market size is small and the ESCO has not much energy‐efficiency advantage over its client. We also study four extensions: When the energy saving service and production decisions are made separately, we find the more energy‐efficient firm is worse off when implementing EPC; when the energy‐saving sharing ratio is determined by the ESCO instead of the client, the ESCO extracts all the surplus derived from the EPC project while the total energy consumption of both firms is always reduced; when the energy‐saving sharing ratio is determined via Nash bargaining, the main insights from the base model remain valid; finally, when the client sets the target of overall cost reduction, it extracts all the surplus derived from the EPC project.     

AHP决策模型在怒江流域水电能源开发评价中的应用研究

本文以AHP决策理论为基础,针对水能资源开发对整个流域生态环境影响较大的特点,建立了一种新的标度矩阵和量化决策模型。该模型基于流域梯级开发环境影响因子的变化特性,提出量化AHP决策模型方法,以怒江流域水电能源开发方案为例,进行评估决策。在充分考虑对整个流域生态环境影响的前提下,对开发方案进行评价与决策,实证研究表明所建立的量化AHP决策模型效果良好。     

不同减排合同下企业间纵向持股对供应链决策的影响

本文针对节能服务公司融资难、回款难及其与用户之间缺乏信任等现象,结合实际中节能服务公司与制造企业采取的不同减排合同机制,分别构建了减排效益分享型合同和减排量保证型合同下企业间纵向持股的三级低碳供应链模型,并对比分析了不同减排合同下持股策略对供应链企业决策及利润的影响。通过模型分析并结合案例及数值算例发现,在减排效益分享型合同中,当制造商单独持股节能服务公司时,增加持股比例会使产品减排量和链条上其他成员利润增加,同时低碳产品市场价格增加;当零售商和制造商同时持股节能服务公司时,两公司增加持股比例同样会使企业决策和利润得到优化,实现真正意义上的供应链企业大联盟,但该种情形会加大持股比例与企业决策和利润的协调难度。此外,在减排效益分享型合同下,制造商对节能服务公司持股可使环保红利和企业效益均得到增加,建议此种减排模式下的供应链企业实施持股策略;但对于减排量保证型合同,持股策略对各企业决策及利润并无明显改善,因此该种减排合同下不建议企业间采取股权合作策略。     

An integrated multi-objective decision-making process for multi-period lot-sizing with supplier selection

Supplier selection is a multi-criteria problem which includes both tangible and intangible factors. In these problems if suppliers have capacity or other different constraints two problems will exist: which suppliers are the best and how much should be purchased from each selected supplier? In this paper an integrated approach of analytic network process (ANP) and multi-objective mixed integer linear programming (MOMILP) is proposed. This integrated approach considers both tangible and intangible factors in choosing the best suppliers and defines the optimum quantities among selected suppliers to maximize the total value of purchasing (TVP), and to minimize the total cost and total defect rate and to balance the total cost among periods. The priorities are calculated for each supplier by using ANP. Four different plastic molding firms working with a refrigerator plant are evaluated according to 14 criteria that are involved in the four clusters: benefits, opportunities, costs and risks (BOCR). The priorities of suppliers will also be used as the parameters of the first objective function. This multi-objective and multi-period real-life problem is solved by using previous techniques and a reservation level driven Tchebycheff procedure (RLTP). Finally the most preferred nondominated solutions are determined by considering the decision maker's (DM's) preferences and the results obtained by these techniques are compared.     

The Dynamics of Domestic Gray Markets and Its Impact on Supply Chains

Gray markets are created by unauthorized retailers selling manufacturer's branded products. Similar to international gray markets, domestic gray markets are a growing phenomenon whose impact on supply chains is not clear. We consider a supply chain with one manufacturer and several authorized retailers who face a newsvendor problem and a domestic gray market. While a gray market provides an opportunity for retailers to clear their excess inventory (inventory‐correction effect), it also can be a threat to their demand (demand‐cannibalization effect). We first characterize the emerging equilibrium by assuming an MSRP environment. Comparing a decentralized and centralized system, we show that a wholesale pricing contract is quite efficient in a gray market environment; we explain the underlying mechanism and note some of the operational decisions that could hurt that efficiency. We show that the gray market price determines the degree of both the negative effects of demand‐cannibalization and the positive effects of inventory correction, which in turn determines the net impact of gray markets on the retailer's stocking choice and, ultimately, the manufacturer's profit. We then study the authorized retailers' problem as a price‐setting newsvendor. We observe that the gray market creates price competition between the authorized and unauthorized retailers, causing a drop in the primary market price. However, this price competition can be counteracted by the authorized retailers' stocking decision. Finally, we extend our model to consider the cases where the demand can be correlated across retailers.