Electoral Support for Community Growth Management Policy*

Objectives. This study seeks to explain the variation in voter support for growth management policy. Interest group theory of local politics and property rights is used as a theoretical framework to explore how competing pro‐growth and anti‐growth interests influence the level of electoral support at the ballot box. Methods. Survey data collected from local planning officials in Massachusetts are analyzed using a two‐stage Heckman selection model. Results. The results indicate that development competition has a negative effect and controversy over development a positive effect on the probability of a community placing growth management policy on the local ballot. The analysis further indicates that environmental interests and suburban communities have a positive influence on the percentage of votes cast in favor of conservation‐oriented growth management policy. Neighborhood‐based interests, on the other hand, have a negative influence on voter support. Conclusions. The findings suggest that compared to the normal legislative process, ballot‐box voting allows anti‐growth and localized interests the opportunity to craft proposals and then mobilize support for policy changes.     

Mobilized by Direct Democracy: Short‐Term Versus Long‐Term Effects and the Geography of Turnout in Ballot Measure Elections*

Objectives. A number of recent studies find that direct democracy increases voter turnout. In this article, we ask: Who does direct democracy mobilize to vote and how are they mobilized? We distinguish between long‐term and short‐term effects on voter turnout, noting that much of the current literature has focused on participatory theory. Methods. Our research design harnesses the power of geographic information systems and examines turnout in special initiative‐only elections using registered voter lists. Our model draws on individual and Census tract data, incorporated using a hierarchical generalized linear model. Results. The findings demonstrate how partisan context mitigates the potential for direct democracy to mobilize from the middle, and clarifies the dominance of short‐term as opposed to long‐term effects in increasing voter participation in ballot initiative elections. Conclusion. Mobilization via direct legislation occurs mostly because voters are actively mobilized by partisan campaigns, not because of an increase in participatory fervor.     

The Geography of Support for Open‐Space Initiatives: A Case Study of New Jersey's 1998 Ballot Measure*

Objectives. By a two to one margin, New Jersey voters in 1998 approved a ballot measure authorizing a 10‐year, 1‐billion dollar open‐space acquisition program. This article's principal objectives are to investigate and explain the spatial character of that vote. Methods. Our methods consists of regression and principal components analyses; we use municipal‐level data to define statewide patterns of voter support and participation in relation to a series of socioeconomic, political, and environmental variables. Results. The analyses yielded two major findings: (1) support for the ballot measure was widespread, but exceptionally strong in the “wealth belt” area of north‐central New Jersey, and (2) voter participation, defined as those voting on the measure as a proportion of all who voted, lagged in the core urban areas. Conclusions. Our conclusions point critically to the importance of socioeconomic status, urban residence, and presence of existing open‐space regulations—as well as rapid changes in the overall sociopolitical landscape—in explaining voter behavior.     

State Income Inequality and Presidential Election Turnout and Outcomes*

Objective. This study examines the links among income inequality, voter turnout, and electoral choice at the state level in recent presidential elections. Methods. We introduce two new state‐level ecological data sets, estimated annual Gini coefficients of income inequality from 1969 to 2004 and a measure of income segregation across Census tracts within states in 1999. We test for associations among inequality, turnout, and party preference with cross‐sectional, fixed‐effects, and multilevel analyses. Results. The cross‐sectional effect of inequality on voter turnout and electoral choice is ambiguous. However, a fixed‐effects analysis links higher income inequality to lower voter turnout and also to a stronger Democratic vote. Multilevel results indicate that higher levels of economic segregation likewise are associated with depressed turnout, after controlling for individual voter characteristics and for state‐level income.     

Sacrificing Civil Liberties to Reduce Terrorism Risks

Our survey results demonstrate that targeted screening of airline passengers raises conflicting concerns of efficiency and equity. Support for profiling increases if there is a substantial reduction in avoided delays to other passengers. The time cost and benefit components of targeting affect support for targeted screening in an efficiency-oriented manner. Nonwhite respondents are more reluctant than whites to support targeting or to be targeted. Terrorism risk assessments are highly diffuse, reflecting considerable risk ambiguity. People fear highly severe worst case terrorism outcomes, but their best estimates of the risk are more closely related to their lower bound estimates than their upper bound estimates. Anomalies evident in other risk perception contexts, such as hindsight biases and embeddedness effects, are particularly evident for terrorism risk beliefs.     

Legislating morality outside of the legislature: Direct democracy,voter participation and morality politics

Twenty-four states currently use some form of the initiative and referendum in an effort to give Americans the opportunity to make laws directly and vote on proposals given to them by their state legislatures. In one area in particular, morality policy, voters have historically used the ballot box to craft important and often controversial legislation. These have included items concerning gambling, alcohol, abortion, narcotics, obscenity and religion. This research examines two important aspects of the direct democracy issue: does the initiative and referendum increase voter participation in the states giving this option to voters and what is the impact on participation levels when morality issues are considered? For the first question a unique data set is developed to test voter turnout on ballot issues using the state as the unit of analysis. Results of this ordinary-least-squares analysis suggest direct democracy does increase voter turnout rates. In the second part of the analysis, however, several state ballots from 1972 to 2006 are analyzed suggesting that voter interest is strongest when they face morality issues. Hence, ‘legislating morality’ takes on a new meaning here since we commonly associate the phrase only with legislative institutions. As shown, over time citizens have been legislating morality directly in their own unique way. Theoretically, while advocates of direct democracy contend the process increases voter participation, it is argued here that the participation is often skewed toward certain morality issues and not toward issues as a whole. The data support this contention and raise normative questions concerning voters and their propensity to ‘legislate morality’.     

The Link Between Voter Choice and Religious Identity in Contemporary Society: Bringing Classical Theory Back In*

Objectives. In this article, we analyze voter choice data from six U.S. presidential elections for evidence of religious identity and sociodemographic effects on voter choice. Methods. Voter choice is analyzed over the period 1980 to 2000 with multivariate statistical models. Results. A link is found between voter choice and religious identity, where the effect of religious identity on voter choice is contingent on location within the stratification order defined by race, class, and gender. The article proposes a theory to explain the contingent link between voter choice and religious identity; the theory is derived from classical sociology. Conclusion. In the United States, political behavior related to religious identity is contingent on the individual's location within the stratification order.     

“I can’t do it if you’re watching” monitoring and reciprocity in clientelism

This study experimentally examines whether or not a private transfer can induce a voter to change an electoral choice based on reciprocity. It also explores whether or not the reciprocal effects of providing a private transfer vary according to the scope and quality of monitoring technologies. The study finds that reciprocity operates under both turnout monitoring and vote choice monitoring. It also finds that the effects of reciprocity are greater under turnout monitoring than under vote choice monitoring only when a voter’s candidate preference on policy grounds is incongruent with the candidate providing a private transfer. The quality of monitoring, however, has little impact, as the effects of reciprocity do not vary according to monitoring probabilities. I conclude by discussing the implications of the findings.     

The impact of governmental assistance on insurance demand under ambiguity: a theoretical model and an experimental test

This article deals with the impact of governmental assistance on insurance demand under ambiguity, i.e., in situations where probabilities are uncertain. First, using a model of insurance demand under ambiguity, we derive theoretical predictions about the impact of several governmental assistance programmes on optimal insurance demand. For example, governmental assistance through a fixed public support scheme implies that partial insurance is always optimal under fair insurance with ambiguity. Second, we present the results of an experiment designed to test these predictions. We find support for several of our theoretical predictions. For example, the presence of governmental assistance through a fixed public support scheme decreases individuals’ willingness to pay to be fully insured. Finally, we compare these results with those obtained for a risk situation. We find that, regardless of the form of governmental assistance, participants in the ambiguity context are consistently willing to pay more to be fully insured than participants in the risk situation.     

The Impact of Gentrification on Voter Turnout*

Objective. The goal of this article is to test between two competing theories (mobilization vs. destabilization) about the impact of gentrification on political participation. Methods. Using geographic information systems (GIS) software, Census data from 1990 and 2000, and a voter file for the City of Atlanta, we estimate a multilevel model of voter turnout. Results. Controlling for relevant individual and contextual factors, we find that gentrification decreases turnout among longstanding residents. Conclusions. Our findings provide support for the destabilization hypothesis and suggest that policymakers should develop strategies to soften the negative consequences of gentrification.     

Sincerity and manipulation under approval voting

Under approval voting, each voter can nominate as many candidates as she wishes and the election winners are those candidates that are nominated most often. A voter is said to have voted sincerely if she prefers all those candidates she nominated to all other candidates. As there can be a set of winning candidates rather than just a single winner, a voter’s incentives to vote sincerely will depend on what assumptions we are willing to make regarding the principles by which voters extend their preferences over individual candidates to preferences over sets of candidates. We formulate two such principles, replacement and deletion, and we show that, under approval voting, a voter who accepts those two principles and who knows how the other voters will vote will never have an incentive to vote insincerely. We then discuss the consequences of this result for a number of standard principles of preference extension in view of sincere voting under approval voting.     

Distance,Turnout, and the Convenience of Voting*

Objectives. This research examines how distance factors into the costs associated with political participation. We hypothesize that the political geography of a voter's residence affects not only the likelihood that he or she will vote, but whether the voter will choose between traditional Election Day voting or nontraditional means, such as casting an absentee ballot by mail, or going to an early‐voting site. Methods. Using a geographic information system (GIS), we calculate Manhattan‐block distances between voter residences and their respective precinct and nearest early‐voting sites in Clark County, NV for the 2002 mid‐term election. We then use these calculated distances to predict, with multinomial logistic regression, the likelihood of nonvoting, precinct voting, and nontraditional voting. Results. Our evidence suggests that the cost of traveling to reach a traditional voting site is associated with nonvoting to a point, but the relationship between distance and participation is nonlinear. Distance to traditional voting sites is also highly associated with choosing to vote by mail. Would‐be nonvoters are more inclined to use proximate election‐day sites than proximate early‐voting sites, probably because they decide to vote so late in the campaign. Conclusions. Our findings have important implications for democratic theory, ongoing efforts to reform the electoral process, and the practice of voter mobilization.     

Partisan Cross‐Pressure and Voter Turnout: The Influence of Micro and Macro Environments*

Objectives. This article explores the impact of the partisan homogeneity/heterogeneity of a variety of group environments on patterns of voter turnout for recent presidential elections in Erie County, New York. Methods. Using multilevel methods (HLM) with data drawn from voter registration files and Census sources, we simultaneously estimate the independent and joint effects on turnout of a variety of the nested contexts inhabited by individuals. Results. Our analysis uncovers strong evidence that politically homogeneous households reinforce participatory behaviors, but that this effect is also conditioned by the partisan complexion of their district environment. Conclusions. We also demonstrate that contextual influences from both households and neighborhoods are stronger for members of the partisan minority.     

Research Integrity and Conflicts of Interest: The Case of Unethical Research-Misconduct Charges Filed by Edward Calabrese

Special-interest polluters often file research-misconduct (RM) charges against scientists whose research suggests needed pollutant regulation. This article argues that U.S. RM regulations are flawed in requiring RM assessors/experts/accused, but not accusers, to reveal possible conflicts of interest (COI) that could affect RM allegations. It (1) summarizes U.S. RM regulatory history; (2) uses a case study about 2011 RM allegations, filed by chemical-industry-funded toxicologist Edward Calabrese, to illustrate problems with RM regulations; and (3) offers 4 arguments in favor of revising RM regulations so as to require RM-accuser revelation of possible COI and who funded preparation of the RM allegations.     

Research integrity and conflicts of interest: the case of unethical research-misconduct charges filed by edward calabrese

Special-interest polluters often file research-misconduct (RM) charges against scientists whose research suggests needed pollutant regulation. This article argues that U.S. RM regulations are flawed in requiring RM assessors/experts/accused, but not accusers, to reveal possible conflicts of interest (COI) that could affect RM allegations. It (1) summarizes U.S. RM regulatory history; (2) uses a case study about 2011 RM allegations, filed by chemical-industry-funded toxicologist Edward Calabrese, to illustrate problems with RM regulations; and (3) offers 4 arguments in favor of revising RM regulations so as to require RM-accuser revelation of possible COI and who funded preparation of the RM allegations.     

Cross-country analyses don't estimate health-health responses

Health-Health analysis has attracted considerable attention as one way to evaluate the costs of regulatory policy to people. When a regulation is adopted to reduce the “risk” experienced by a particular group, health-health analysis seeks to evaluate when the indirect effects of an increase in prices or reduction in income offsets the direct effects intended by the regulation. If these indirect effects are large enough, then the general population can experience an increase in their overall risk. The article considers health-health analysis as it relates to policy decisions from conceptual and empirical perspectives. A comparative static analysis was a simple model is used to illustrate the factors influencing the relative effects of income and policy variables on risk. The empirical analysis also suggests that results with aggregate cross-country data and simple reduced-form models for the relationship of mortality to income are sensitive to model specifications and the sample composition.     

Race,Roll‐Off,and Racial Transition: The Influence of Political Change on Racial Group Voter Roll‐Off in Urban Elections*

Objectives. Many cities in the United States have undergone or are undergoing racial transition from a majority white to a majority black population. Accompanying this is a change in the racial makeup of elections and officeholders. This article seeks to explain racial patterns in voter roll‐off as a city undergoes racial transition. Methods. Using a fixed‐effects regression model, we analyze the level of voter roll‐off (from the top‐of‐the‐ballot mayoral contest) among black and white voters across Memphis City Council elections, from 1967 through 2003. Results. The level of voter roll‐off among racial groups is sensitive to the racial aspect of political change. Black voters are most likely to continue to vote in council contests when there is a racial choice among candidates, when blacks have previously been elected, and when blacks occupy the mayoralty and a majority of council seats. Whites are most likely to vote in racially competitive council contests, as well as when there are a large number of white candidates, and when whites hold a majority of the council seats. Conclusions. In settings such as Memphis, where race has played a pronounced historic role, the racial context of political empowerment has a strong influence on electoral participation. Elections below the top‐of‐the‐ballot become more salient, and political efficacy grows among racial group members when that cohort occupies institutional positions, particularly the majority of positions in a governing institution.     

Celebrity and politics: Effects of endorser credibility and sex on voter attitudes,perceptions, and behaviors

While much research examines the effects of celebrity endorsements in commercial advertising, scholars have only recently sought to investigate the effects of celebrity endorsements of politicians on voter perceptions and behavior. This study expands existing research on celebrity political endorsement effects via an experiment exploring effects of different versions of a news story describing a celebrity's endorsement of a political candidate on participants’ voting attitudes, perceptions of candidate credibility, and voting behavioral intent. Although participants perceive credibility differences between high- and low-credibility celebrities, neither endorser credibility nor endorser sex impact attitudes toward the endorsed candidate, perceptions of the candidate's credibility, or intended voting behavior. Conceptual relationships to other studies on celebrity endorsement effects are discussed, as are implications, limitations, and directions for future research.     

The roll-off effect in judicial retention elections

Because of the absence of powerful traditional voting cues and the unusual nature and format of uncontested judicial retention elections, a large number of voters deliberately fail to cost ballots in retention elections. Filling a void in the study of retention elections, this study empirically examines the voter roll-off in 1,864 retention elections for major trial court judges for the period 1964–1984. The mean roll-off for these elections was 36.2%. Voter roll-off was found to be positively related to district size and number of counties in a judicial district. These trial court retention elections exhibit mixed relationships for different types of elections. Although in presidential and nonpresidential elections there is clear surge and decline in voter turnout, there is no corresponding surge and decline in roll-off. However, close retention elections have less roll-off than nonclose elections.     

Buying Insurance for Disaster-Type Risks: Experimental Evidence

This paper presents a series of experiments that confront subjects with low probability, high loss situations. A rich parameter set is examined and we find subjects respond to low probability, high loss risks in predictable ways. As loss events become more likely, or loss amounts get larger, or the cost of insurance falls, subjects are more likely to buy indemnifying insurance, even for the class of low probability risks that usually presents problems for standard expected utility theory. A novel application of Cameron's method to estimate willingness to pay from dichotomous choice responses allows us to estimate willingness to pay for insurance. We do not observe the bimodal distribution of bids found in other studies of similar risk situations.