Measurement of Household and Family Composition in the United States, 1850–2000

This article has three goals. First, it explores the effects of changes in census definitions and concepts on the measurement of living arrangements. As part of this analysis, the authors develop new estimates of the number of households and group quarters in each census year since 1850. Second, they evaluate the existing aggregate statistical series on family and household composition, with particular attention to problems in the measurement of subfamilies. Finally, they describe data and methods for developing a consistent set of statistics for the period since 1850 and offer recommendations for the coherent measurement of family and household composition.     

Explaining Disability Trends in the United States, 1963–2015

The National Health Interview Survey is the world's longest survey time series of health data. In spite of the availability of such a long time series, previous studies did not attempt to explain long‐term trends in disability, because the design of the question in the survey has changed over time. To control for changes in the design of the question, I added two variables indicating major changes in the design to the analysis. My results show that the decline in mortality from cardiovascular disease is associated with the rise in disability in the 1970s, whereas better education is associated with the long‐term decline in disability that started in the 1980s. Combined, the two variables are able to account for all major trends in disability at age 50–84 from 1963 to 2015, leaving limited room for other explanations. The statistical model predicts that the trend in falling disability rates will end as the rise in educational levels draws to a halt.     

Relative Cohort Size,Relative Income,and Married Women's Labor Force Participation: United States, 1968–2010

Relative cohort size—the ratio of young adults to prime‐age adults—and relative income—the income of young adults relative to their material aspirations—have experienced substantial changes over the past 40 years. Results here show that changes in relative cohort size explain about 60 percent of the declines in women's starting wage—both relative and absolute—in 1968–82, and 97 percent of its increase in 1982–2001. Relative income is hypothesized to affect a number of behavioral choices by young adults, including marriage, childbearing, and female labor force participation, as young people strive to achieve their desired standard of living. Older family income—the denominator in a relative income variable—increased by 59 percent between 1968 and 2000, and then declined by 9 percent. Its changes explain 47 percent of the increase in the labor force participation of white married women in their first 15 years out of school between 1970 and 1990, and 38 percent of the increase in hours worked in the same period. The study makes use of individual‐level measures of labor force participation and employs the lagged income of older families in a woman's year‐state‐race‐education group to instrument parental income and hence material aspirations.     

Emptying the Nest: Older Men in the United States, 1880–2000

Between 1880 and 2000, the percentage of married men 60 and older living only with their wives in empty nest households rose from 19 percent to 78 percent. Data drawn from the US census show that more than half of this transformation occurred in the 30‐year period from 1940 to 1970, bookended by moderate increases between 1880 and 1940 and very modest increases after 1970. Two literatures have presented demographic, cultural, and economic explanations for the decline in elderly co‐residence with their children, but none adequately accounts for a sharp change in the mid‐twentieth century. Both aggregate comparisons and multivariate analysis of factors influencing the living arrangements of elderly men suggest that economic advances for all age groups in the critical 30‐year period, along with trends in fertility and immigration, best explain the three‐stage shift that made the empty nest the dominant household form for older men by the beginning of the twenty‐first century.     

CDC on Vaccines and Children's Health: United States 1900–98

During the twentieth century, the health and life expectancy of persons residing in the United States—as in most other countries of the globe—have improved greatly. (For a discussion of some aspects of that improvement, see the article in this issue by Kevin White assessing the effects of changes in cardiovascular and tuberculosis mortality in the United States since 1900.) A considerable share of this change is attributable to advances in public health. To highlight these advances the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (an agency of the US Department of Health and Human Services) is issuing a series of reports profiling ten great public health achievements in the United States during the present century. The first of these reports discusses vaccination: “Impact of vaccines universally recommended for children—United States, 1900–1998,” MMWR 48 (12), 2 April 1999. It is reproduced below in full. The improvements chronicled in the report are especially great with respect to morbidity. In many developing countries mortality resulting from vaccine-preventable causes is, however, still very high. Recent international initiatives, involving UN agencies, bilateral aid agencies, foundations, and the vaccine industry, aim at accelerating the outreach of immunization in developing countries. A meeting discussing an expanded program of vaccination (Bellagio, March 1999) estimated that global immunization, at a cost of approximately $3 billion per year, could save some 40 million lives over the next ten years.     

Parity-specific fertility intentions and uncertainty: the United States, 1970 to 1976

A theoretical and analytic model of fertility intentions is proposed which treats “don’t know” responses and other uncertain responses as distinct from more firm intentions. Methodologically, these analyses show that “don’t know” responses need not be treated as missing data, but instead are both valid and meaningful responses. Furthermore, eliminating these uncertain respondents would have the negative effects of distorting across survey comparisons in intentions due to shifts in aggregate uncertainty, reducing the likelihood of accurately detecting shifts in fertility intentions, and lessening the representatives of the sample analyzed. Substantively, in conjunction with Morgan (1981), these results show that the sharp 1965–76 decline in the likelihood of intending more births at parities 2 through 5 occurred as women halted childbearing at minimal acceptable levels and postponed further childbearing. With time (or age), this delayed fertility became fertility about which the respondent was uncertain and, finally, fertility foregone. Since 1970, similar shifts are observed at parities 0 and 1, perhaps foreshadowing an increase in voluntary childlessness and one-child families.     

Age stratification at work: Trends in occupational age segregation in the United States, 1950–2000

This paper adjudicates between competing accounts of recent trends in the amount and patterning of occupational age segregation. These accounts rely on narratives about: (1) the decline of age-graded mobility, (2) the rise of occupational volatility, and (3) the existence of dual labor markets, in particular increasingly bimodal age distributions in low-skill occupations. Using new log-multiplicative models and related methods, the findings show that overall age segregation declined between 1950 and 1990, which is consistent with the decline of age-graded mobility. Among women, though not among men, the findings show increasingly bimodal age distributions in particular low-skill occupations, which is consistent with a dual labor market. Starting in 1990, age segregation increased among men and may have increased among women, which is consistent with the occupational volatility narrative.     

Trends in the Economic Independence of Young Adults in the United States: 1973–2007

One of the major milestones of adulthood is achieving economic independence. Without sufficient income, young people have difficulty leaving their childhood home, establishing a union, or having children—or they do so at great peril. Using the National Longitudinal Survey, this article compares the employment and economic circumstances of young adults aged 22–30 in 1973, 1987, and 2007, and their possible determinants. The results show that achieving economic independence is more difficult now than it was in the late 1980s and especially in the 1970s, even for the older age groups (age 27–28). The deterioration is more evident among men. From the 1970s there has been convergence in the trajectories for the achievement of economic self‐sufficiency between men and women, suggesting that the increase in gender parity, especially in education and labor market outcomes, is making their opportunities to be employed and to earn good wages more similar. This convergence also suggests that union formation increasingly may depend on a capacity to combine men's and women's wages.     

Wife’s employment and cumulative family size in the United States, 1970 and 1960

Using a multiple classification analysis of the data from the I percent public-use samples of the 1960 and 1970 censuses of population, it is found that the negative relationship between wives’ employment and their cumulative family size is stronger among whites than nonwhites and is strongest among women married less than 10 years, with 12 or more years of schooling, and who have no relatives living with them. Moreover, although there are many similarities in the pattern of the employment status/fertility relationship between the 1960 and 1970 data, the relationship is weaker in 1970 than in 1960.     

Childhood Family Structure and Intergenerational Income Mobility in the United States

The declining prevalence of two-parent families helped increase income inequality over recent decades. Does family structure also condition how economic (dis)advantages pass from parents to children? If so, shifts in the organization of family life may contribute to enduring inequality between groups defined by childhood family structure. Using National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data, I combine parametric and nonparametric methods to reveal how family structure moderates intergenerational income mobility in the United States. I find that individuals raised outside stable two-parent homes are much more mobile than individuals from stable two-parent families. Mobility increases with the number of family transitions but does not vary with children’s time spent coresiding with both parents or stepparents conditional on a transition. However, this mobility indicates insecurity, not opportunity. Difficulties maintaining middle-class incomes create downward mobility among people raised outside stable two-parent homes. Regardless of parental income, these people are relatively likely to become low-income adults, reflecting a new form of perverse equality. People raised outside stable two-parent families are also less likely to become high-income adults than people from stable two-parent homes. Mobility differences account for about one-quarter of family-structure inequalities in income at the bottom of the income distribution and more than one-third of these inequalities at the top.     

Women’s sex preferences in the United States: 1970 to 1975

This analysis examines the potential effect of sex preselection technology in the United States. The results suggest that controlling the sex of offspring is not the desire of most American women; that if it were employed, there would be a significant increase in sons as first-born and daughters as second children; that the overall sex ratio would be little changed from that occurring naturally except at very low fertility levels with universal use of such technology; and that fertility is only minimally influenced by gender preferences.     

Family planning program activity and patient enrollment rates in the United States, 1969 and 1971

The effects of demographic characteristics, socioeconomic conditions, health care, and family planning program activity on patient enrollment rates are estimated for 1969 and 1971. Two program activity variables (agencies and clinic locations) have significant, positive net effects in both years. The effect of agencies changed little between 1969and 1971, and it is the strongest effect in both years. The effect of clinic locations more than doubled between 1969 and 1971, partly due to increased demand. The direct effects of the demographic, socioeconomic, and health care variables are not large, but many of the demographic and socioeconomic variables have substantial indirect effects via health care and program activity.     

United States population estimates and components of change: 1970 to 1987

This report analyzes year-to-year change in the US population from 1970 to 1987, including natural increase and net civilian immigration. Data are drawn from Current Population Reports. 1) The January 1, 1988 total population including Armed Forces overseas was over 245 million. This reflects a .9% increase over January 1, 1987, and an increase of 18 million since the April 1, 1980 census. 2) In the beginning of 1988, Whites numbered 206,979 million, Blacks 30,083, and Blacks and other races 38,130. 3) The crude birth rate dipped from 15.9 in 1980 to 15.6 in 1987; there is no evidence of a consistent trend since 1980. 4) The 3.8 million births in 1987 reflect a continuation of the gradual increase births that has been occurring since the mid-1970s, an increase attributed to Baby Boomers. 5) There was an 8.7/1000 death rate in 1987. This rate has fluctuated in the 8.5-8.7/1000 range since 1977 after declining from 9.4/1000 in 1972. The 2.1 million deaths in 1987 continue the gradual increase that has occurred since the end of the 1940s. This increase is attributed to the growth in population and to the population's continued aging. 6) Net immigrants/1000 population dropped slightly to 2.5 in 1987, down from 2.7 in 1986 and 3.7 in 1980. 7) Rates of growth for both Blacks and Whites have declined substantially since 1960; Blacks declined by about 1/3 (from 2.2%) and Whites by more than 1/2 (from 1.5%). The population of other races increased by 4.5% in 1987. The Black population grew by 1.5% in 1987, compared with a growth of .7% for the White population.     

The continuation of education after marriage among women in the United States: 1970

Data from the 1970 National Fertility Study are used to assess the extent and determinants of post-nuptial education among women in the United States. Over one-fifth of all women have attended high school or college since marriage; over one-third either have returned to school or anticipate returning to an academic institution sometime in the future. This phenomenon is apparently increasing since women married less than five years have already attended school in as great a proportion as women married 15-19 years. Examination of differentials reveals for both blacks and whites that post-nupital education is higher among women who: (1) attended college before marriage, (2) married early, (3) are currently separated or divorced, (4) support egalitarian sex-role attitudes, or (5) whose most recent occupation is in the professional, managerial, or administrative category. Post-nuptial trends in education undoubtedly reflect the much broader social phenomenon of changing sex-role perceptions.     

Discovering Diverse Mechanisms of Migration: The Mexico–US Stream 1970–2000

Migrants to the United States are a diverse population. This diversity, identified in various migration theories, is overlooked in empirical applications that describe a typical narrative for an average migrant. Using the Mexican Migration Project data from about 17,000 first‐time migrants from Mexico to the US between 1970 and 2000, this study employs cluster analysis to identify four types of migrants with distinct configurations of characteristics. Each migrant type corresponds to a specific theoretical account and becomes prevalent in a specific period, depending on economic, social, and political conditions in Mexico and the US. Around the period when each migrant type becomes prevalent, a corresponding theory is also developed.