The role of environmental perceptions in migration decision-making: evidence from both migrants and non-migrants in five developing countries

Research has demonstrated that, in a variety of settings, environmental factors influence migration. Yet much of the existing work examines objective indicators of environmental conditions as opposed to the environmental perceptions of potential migrants. This paper examines migration decision-making and individual perceptions of different types of environmental change (sudden vs. gradual environmental events) with a focus on five developing countries: Vietnam, Cambodia, Uganda, Nicaragua, and Peru. The survey data include both migrants and non-migrants, with the results suggesting that individual perceptions of long-term (gradual) environmental events, such as droughts, lower the likelihood of internal migration. However, sudden-onset events, such as floods, increase movement. These findings substantially improve our understanding of perceptions as related to internal migration and also suggest that a more differentiated perspective is needed on environmental migration as a form of adaptation.     

Life Shocks and Homelessness

We exploited an exogenous health shock—namely, the birth of a child with a severe health condition—to investigate the effect of a life shock on homelessness in large cities in the United States as well as the interactive effects of the shock with housing market characteristics. We considered a traditional measure of homelessness, two measures of housing instability thought to be precursors to homelessness, and a combined measure that approximates the broadened conceptualization of homelessness under the 2009 Homeless Emergency Assistance and Rapid Transition to Housing Act (2010). We found that the shock substantially increases the likelihood of family homelessness, particularly in cities with high housing costs. The findings are consistent with the economic theory of homelessness, which posits that homelessness results from a conjunction of adverse circumstances in which housing markets and individual characteristics collide.     

Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises

Climate change is now well recognized as a potentially significant factor in the human future, affecting ecological systems, agriculture, health, and settlement patterns. The scientific consensus, periodically assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, foresees a long‐term atmospheric warming of a few degrees over a century. The accumulating knowledge of the world's climate history, however, suggests that any implied stability of trend may be illusory. The evidence comes from ice and seabed cores and tree rings, which can yield year‐by‐year information on atmospheric conditions and time‐series of mean temperatures extending back for millennia. These data show many episodes of a sudden rise or fall in temperature in particular regions, sometimes of 10°C or more in ten years, with the new mean lasting for decades or centuries. There is thus the likelihood—even the inevitability—of comparably large and abrupt changes occurring in coming years, a very different prospect from the “greenhouse warming” scenario projected by current large‐scale climate models. Moreover, the two phenomena may be connected: a continued slow temperature rise may at some point trigger an abrupt shift in climate regime through mechanisms such as the effect on ocean circulation. In 2002 a committee set up by the US National Research Council reviewed what is known about this subject in a report, Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises (Washington, DC: National Academy Press). The Council is the operating arm of the US National Academy of Sciences; the Committee on Abrupt Climate Change comprised mostly oceanographers and climate experts and was chaired by Richard B. Alley, Professor of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University, a glaciologist and author of The Two‐Mile Time Machine: Ice Cores, Abrupt Climate Change, and Our Future (Princeton, 2000). A recent spate of media attention to the subject has been occasioned less by the NRC report itself than by a dramatic scenario exercise derived from it, prepared under US Defense Department auspices, and by release of a disaster film with an instant‐ice‐age theme. The Pentagon study, An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security, authored by Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall, was issued in October 2003. It explores the hypothetical geopolitical consequences of a repetition in the near future of an event experienced 8,200 years ago (as recorded in an ice core from central Greenland): a sudden cooling of some 2–3° C, lasting for a century, punctuating climatic conditions broadly similar to those of the present day. In the scenario, the collapse of ocean heat‐conveying currents causes rapid cooling in the northern hemisphere and warming in the southern hemisphere. Outcomes include resource wars, large population movements, and “a significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the Earth's environment.” In February 2004 the NRC reasserted the more measured voices of its committee by issuing a four‐page summary of the 2002 report, under the same title as the full document. This “report in brief” is reproduced below.     

The Next 50 Years: Unfolding Trends

Change in modern societies comes both because of sudden, and often catastrophic, events and because of the gradual unfolding of fundamental demographic, social, economic, strategic, and environmental trends. A previous essay by the author assessed the probabilities over the coming five decades of the most important natural and anthropogenic catastrophes with possible global impacts. This essay surveys key socioeconomic trends of the next 50 years. While the ranking and comparative assessments of the importance, intensity, and durability of these trends may be elusive, their historic background, complexity, linkages, and likely consequences can be illuminated by focusing on the long‐term futures of six major global actors: the United States, the European Union, the Muslim world, Japan, Russia, and China. This appraisal suggests a likelihood of a world without a dominant power (or a grand alliance) and subject to a potentially worrisome fragmentation.     

Interrelationships between fertility and marital dissolution: Results of a simultaneous logit model

Previous studies have failed to examine (a) the simultaneity of decisions to bear children and to dissolve a marriage and (b) the effects of the childbearing in the period just before dissolution on the likelihood of disruption. We attempted to resolve both problems by developing a simultaneous logit model of the interrelationship between the probability of separation and of having a birth during this period (when dissolution presumably is being considered). The model was estimated at successive durations of first marriage, using data for white women in the 1970 National Fertility Survey. The results indicate that childbearing patterns— number of children and age of youngest child at the beginning of the marital interval being studied and fertility during the interval—did not influence the likelihood of separation in simple or consistent ways over the marital life course, nor did marital strife (as indicated by separation) seem to affect childbearing throughout marriage.     

Toward Authenticity

Scholars suggest we construct stories or narratives to help us create order and rationalize events that are difficult to explain. In contemporary society, journalists serve as mediated storytellers, and one story journalists have told from the perspective of sense-making is that of mothers who kill their children, a crime that can defy understanding. This qualitative textual analysis examines ten cases of maternal infanticide to determine the collective narrative told by journalists, exploring the dialectical and rhetorical functions of narrative. The analysis reveals that the news narrative offers moral lessons about the consequences of maternal incompetence and “inappropriate” feminine sexual behavior. The author questions whether the journalistic paradigm of detachment—traditionally associated with a masculine narrative style—is the best way to tell stories of women's lives and suggests feminist research practices can be used to capture the complexities of mothering work, as well as other complicated situations in women's and men's lives.     

Determinanten der Lebensqualität psychisch kranker Personen

Not only chronic mental disease, but also psycho-social factors limit the quality of life (QoL) of mentally ill persons. From three theoretical explanation models of QoL — the medical model, labeling theory, and stress process model — we deduced three hypotheses. To test our hypotheses, we re-analysed data from the study “Social integration and quality of life of mentally ill people”. Data were derived from structured interviews with 305 in-patients in psychiatric institutions in the Canton of Zurich (Switzerland), and completed with few informations from their doctors’ files. Various QoL dimensions entered the statistical analyses as dependent variables. Results indicate varied explanation power of the models under investigation depending on the dimension of QoL: psychic symptoms highly influence the health-related QoL, but have only small effects on social and material QoL. Social as well as material QoL are strongly influenced by social support as well as, though to a lesser extent, by life stress events. Chronification of mental illness and perceived discrimination because of the mental disease indirectly affect QoL through reduced social support and increased psychic symptoms. From our results we conclude that social integration and rehabilitation of mentally ill people require a bio-psycho-social treatment approach.     

Predictors of stress and depressive mood in Portuguese middle-aged women

ABSTRACT

This cross-sectional study investigates the predictors of psychological symptoms—stress and depressive mood—in a sample of middle-aged women. A community sample of 1,003 women filled in the questionnaires and instruments, which included the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scales and the Life Events Survey; sociodemographic, health, and menopause-related and lifestyle information was also collected. Structural equation modeling was used to build the model that had stress and depressive mood as dependent variables. Health status (both physical and psychological), recent life events, income and menopausal phase were significantly associated with the frequency of stress and depressive symptoms. Additionally, educational level and parity were also significant predictors of depressive mood. This study emphasizes that psychological symptoms occurrence in midlife depends not only on personal variables (such as health and menopausal status) but also on contextual ones (including recent stressful events) that can be a strong influence on how middle-aged women feel.     

Mortality Deceleration and Mortality Selection: Three Unexpected Implications of a Simple Model

Unobserved heterogeneity in mortality risk is pervasive and consequential. Mortality deceleration—the slowing of mortality’s rise with age—has been considered an important window into heterogeneity that otherwise might be impossible to explore. In this article, I argue that deceleration patterns may reveal surprisingly little about the heterogeneity that putatively produces them. I show that even in a very simple model—one that is composed of just two subpopulations with Gompertz mortality—(1) aggregate mortality can decelerate even while a majority of the cohort is frail; (2) multiple decelerations are possible; and (3) mortality selection can produce acceleration as well as deceleration. Simulations show that these patterns are plausible in model cohorts that in the aggregate resemble cohorts in the Human Mortality Database. I argue that these results challenge some conventional heuristics for understanding the relationship between selection and deceleration; undermine certain inferences from deceleration timing to patterns of social inequality; and imply that standard parametric models, assumed to plateau at most once, may sometimes badly misestimate deceleration timing—even by decades.     

The Educational Consequences of Teen Childbearing

A huge literature shows that teen mothers face a variety of detriments across the life course, including truncated educational attainment. To what extent is this association causal? The estimated effects of teen motherhood on schooling vary widely, ranging from no discernible difference to 2.6 fewer years among teen mothers. The magnitude of educational consequences is therefore uncertain, despite voluminous policy and prevention efforts that rest on the assumption of a negative and presumably causal effect. This study adjudicates between two potential sources of inconsistency in the literature—methodological differences or cohort differences—by using a single, high-quality data source: namely, The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. We replicate analyses across four different statistical strategies: ordinary least squares regression; propensity score matching; and parametric and semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation. Results demonstrate educational consequences of teen childbearing, with estimated effects between 0.7 and 1.9 fewer years of schooling among teen mothers. We select our preferred estimate (0.7), derived from semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation, on the basis of weighing the strengths and limitations of each approach. Based on the range of estimated effects observed in our study, we speculate that variable statistical methods are the likely source of inconsistency in the past. We conclude by discussing implications for future research and policy, and recommend that future studies employ a similar multimethod approach to evaluate findings.     

Life Shocks and Crime: A Test of the “Turning Point” Hypothesis

Other researchers have posited that important events in men's lives-such as employment, marriage, and parenthood-strengthen their social ties and lead them to refrain from crime. A challenge in empirically testing this hypothesis has been the issue of self-selection into life transitions. This study contributes to this literature by estimating the effects of an exogenous life shock on crime. We use data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, augmented with information from hospital medical records, to estimate the effects of the birth of a child with a severe health problem on the likelihood that the infant's father engages in illegal activities. We conduct a number of auxiliary analyses to examine exogeneity assumptions. We find that having an infant born with a severe health condition increases the likelihood that the father is convicted of a crime in the three-year period following the birth of the child, and at least part of the effect appears to operate through work and changes in parental relationships. These results provide evidence that life events can cause crime and, as such, support the "turning point" hypothesis.     

Work, income, the economy, and married fathers as child-care providers

Previous research on fathers as child-care providers indicates a need to study the father’s role in child care in the context of different economic cycles. Using data from the 1988, 1991, and 1993 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation, we examine whether father’ availability and the couple’s economic resources are differentially related to child care by fathers over time. We focus on the differences between 1991—a recession year—and 1988 and 1993—two nonrecession years. Increased availability of fathers is significantly related to higher levels of fathers’ participation in child care in all three years. Relative economic resources between husbands and wives help explain care by fathers only during the recession year, whereas family income is important only in the nonrecession years. These results suggest that in the future, researchers should acknowledge fluctuations in the economy when studying husbands’ participation in traditional female tasks, as macroeconomic shifts appear to impact the likelihood of married fathers caring for their preschoolers during mothers’ working hours.     

The demography of words: The global decline in non-numeric fertility preferences, 1993–2011

This paper examines the decline in non-numeric responses to questions about fertility preferences among women in the developing world. These types of response—such as ‘don’t know’ or ‘it’s up to God’—have often been interpreted through the lens of fertility transition theory as an indication that reproduction has not yet entered women’s ‘calculus of conscious choice’. However, this has yet to be investigated cross-nationally and over time. Using 19?years of data from 32 countries, we find that non-numeric fertility preferences decline most substantially in the early stages of a country’s fertility transition. Using country-specific and multilevel models, we explore the individual- and contextual-level characteristics associated with women’s likelihood of providing a non-numeric response to questions about their fertility preferences. Non-numeric fertility preferences are influenced by a host of social factors, with educational attainment and knowledge of contraception being the most robust and consistent predictors.     

Left Out? Lesbian,Gay, and Bisexual Poverty in the U.S.

This paper analyzes the risk of poverty for self-identified lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) people from mid-2013 through 2016 in the National Health Interview Survey, a nationally representative survey of households that includes a sexual orientation question based on identity (n = 112,143). The study tests the role of family structure—living with a spouse or partner and having children—on the risk of poverty for LGB and heterosexual respondents. After controlling for education, demographic, and health measures in a probit model, lesbians and gay men are as likely to be poor as similar heterosexuals, but bisexual women and men are significantly more likely to be poor, regardless of relationship status. Single and childless gay men are also more likely to be poor than single heterosexual men. Being in a relationship reduces the likelihood of poverty for people of all sexual orientations, but the data show evidence of a gender composition effect: married male same-sex couples are less likely and unmarried female same-sex couples more likely to be poor than their married counterparts. Marriage reduces gay men’s poverty risk more and children increase their poverty risk less than for heterosexual men.     

The Importance of Fairness and Equity for the Marital Satisfaction of Older Women

ABSTRACT

In all societies, people are concerned with social justice. “It's just not right” is a fairly common lament. In these two studies, we interviewed 240 older women, who ranged in age from 50 to 82. We found that most older women (85%) considered their marriages to be fair and equitable. Older women were less concerned about existing inequities than their younger peers. Nonetheless, they were somewhat concerned with how rewarding and how fair and equitable their relationships were perceived to be. Those who felt over-benefited, for example, felt more guilty than did their less advantaged peers; those who felt under-benefited felt far more angry than did their privileged peers. Stressful life events—such as the arrival of children, retirement, serious illness, or the awareness impending death—often brought to awareness long simmering resentments over issues of fairness.     

Midpregnancy Marriage and Divorce: Why the Death of Shotgun Marriage Has Been Greatly Exaggerated

Conventional wisdom holds that births following the colloquially termed “shotgun marriage”—that is, births to parents who married between conception and the birth—are nearing obsolescence. To investigate trends in shotgun marriage, we matched North Carolina administrative data on nearly 800,000 first births among white and black mothers to marriage and divorce records. We found that among married births, midpregnancy-married births (our preferred term for shotgun-married births) have been relatively stable at about 10 % over the past quarter-century while increasing substantially for vulnerable population subgroups. In 2012, among black and white less-educated and younger women, midpregnancy-married births accounted for approximately 20 % to 25 % of married first births. The increasing representation of midpregnancy-married births among married births raises concerns about well-being among at-risk families because midpregnancy marriages may be quite fragile. Our analysis revealed, however, that midpregnancy marriages were more likely to dissolve only among more advantaged groups. Of those groups considered to be most at risk of divorce—namely, black women with lower levels of education and who were younger—midpregnancy marriages had the same or lower likelihood of divorce as preconception marriages. Our results suggest an overlooked resiliency in a type of marriage that has only increased in salience.     

Interior Immigration Enforcement and Political Participation of U.S. Citizens in Mixed-Status Households

The 2000s have witnessed an expansion of interior immigration enforcement in the United States. At the same time, the country has experienced a major demographic transformation, with the number of U.S. citizens living in mixed-status households—that is, households where at least one family member is an unauthorized migrant—reaching 16 million. U.S. citizens living in mixed-status households are personally connected to the struggles experienced by their unauthorized family members. For them, immigration policy is likely to shape their current and future voting behavior. Using data from the 2002–2014 Current Population Survey Voting and Registration Supplements, we examine whether intensified immigration enforcement has affected the political engagement of U.S. citizens living in mixed-status households. We find that immigration enforcement has chilled their electoral participation by lowering their propensity to register by 5 %; however, it has not visibly affected their voting propensity among those registered. Importantly, their lower voting registration likelihood does not seem to reflect indifference for community and public matters, given that it has been accompanied by greater involvement in civic forms of political participation, such as volunteering. Understanding how immigration policy affects the political participation of a fast-growing segment of the electorate is imperative because they will inevitably constitute a rapidly rising political force in future elections.     

Calculation of life tables from survey data: A technical note

Life table calculations from survey data are frequently based on events for which exact dates are not available. When these dates are coded in monthly form (e.g., century months), estimates should take into account the fact that the first duration interval—the interval which captures events occurring in the first month of exposure—is half the length of all remaining intervals. Although failure to do so has a trivial effect on many demographic calculations, estimates which are based on events which occur with high frequency in the first few months of exposure can be substantially biased. Estimates offecundability for four countries in the World Fertility Survey are used to illustrate this bias.     

Federal job training programs and employment outcomes: Effects by sex and race of participants

This article examines the extent to which the program activity assignments of participants in federal job training programs affect their future employment prospects. We analyze the effects of three types of programs—classroom training, on-the-job training, and work experience—on the post-program employment outcomes of black and white women and men. The data are from the Continuous Longitudinal Manpower Survey of fiscal 1976 participants in the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act (CETA). Logistic regression and event history analysis are used to assess the likelihood of immediate employment upon leaving CETA and the rates at which participants enter and leave their first post-program spells of employment and nonemployment.     

Is consanguinity an impediment to child development?

Marriages between blood relatives—also known as consanguineous unions—are widespread in North Africa, Central and West Asia, and South Asia. Researchers have suggested that consanguinity has adverse effects on child development, but assessing its impact is not straightforward, as the decision to marry a relative might be endogenous to other socio-economic factors. Using a unique data set collected in rural Pakistan, this paper assesses the extent to which consanguinity is linked to children’s cognitive and physical development. It exploits grandfathers’ land ownership (current and past) and maternal grandparent mortality to identify the effect of endogenous consanguinity on child development. Children born into consanguineous unions have lower cognitive scores, lower height-for-age, and a higher likelihood of being severely stunted. More importantly, adverse effects are greater after accounting for the endogeneity of consanguinity, suggesting that impacts on child development are substantial, and likely to be larger than suggested in previous studies.