考虑随机需求与收入共享的风险规避型V2G备用决策模型

在CVaR风险度量准则下,构建了考虑随机需求与收入共享的风险规避型V2G备用决策模型,推导了集中和分散两种决策下渠道成员最优决策行为的解析解,并进一步比较分析了随机需求变量服从均匀分布时的均衡策略。研究发现,集中决策下的最优V2G备用预留因子与渠道整体的风险规避度正相关,而均衡时的V2G备用销售价格与渠道整体的风险规避度的相关性不确定,且受到随机需求变量的分布函数影响;分散决策下的最优V2G备用预留因子仅与电网公司的风险规避度有关,而均衡时的V2G备用销售价格受到电网公司的风险规避度、购电价格以及电动汽车用户收入共享系数等的共同影响;电动汽车用户的最优V2G备用收入共享系数与其风险规避度正相关,而与电网公司的风险规避度负相关。数值仿真结果表明,在绝大多数情形下收入共享合约并不能完美协调此类V2G备用渠道的分散决策行为。     

基于电子市场的供应链双渠道冲突与协调的契约设计

研究了一个制造商通过传统零售渠道销售产品的同时开辟网上直销渠道,采取混合双渠道来销售产品的供应链渠道结构。从分析消费者效用出发,建立了双渠道环境下需求依赖价格变化的需求函数,运用博弈论建立决策模型。结果表明制造商在保持传统渠道的同时,开辟电子渠道将导致传统零售商的市场份额减少,利润降低,引起渠道冲突。为了解决混合双渠道的冲突和协调,设计了批发价加电子渠道价格的合同实现了双渠道供应链的协调,通过改进的收入共享契约不但实现了双渠道供应链的协调,而且实现了开辟电子渠道后供应链各成员利润的帕累托改进,从而实现了供应链双渠道冲突的协调问题。     

两层级分散决策供应链库存转运问题研究

本文考虑一个由制造商及分散决策零售商构成的两层级供应链,研究了库存转运对供应链各方利润的影响。通过构建博弈模型并推导子博弈完美纳什均衡,确定了制造商及零售商的最优决策水平,并确定供应链各方在库存转运下利润提高和降低的条件。理论分析显示,制造商及零售商利润增减均由转运价格决定,转运价格阈值则受临界分位点水平影响。最后给出了零售商进行库存转运的供应链协调契约。     

Strategic Information Sharing in Competing Channels

We investigate strategic information sharing in two competing channels. The retailer in a channel can ex post decide whether to share private demand information with his upstream manufacturer after the content of information becomes known. We find that a retailer discloses low demand and withholds high demand to induce lower wholesale prices from his manufacturer. We show that a retailer should share less information when the retail market becomes more competitive, but should disclose more information when his capability to acquire information improves. When a decentralized supply chain competes with an integrated channel, we show that firms in the supply chain benefit from the rival channel's effort to improve information capability, that the incentive for the retailer in the supply chain to improve his information capability increases with the intensity of competition and with the rival channel's information capability, and that the retailer may not want to pursue perfect information acquisition even when doing so is costless. Extensive numerical studies demonstrate that similar results also hold for two decentralized supply chains competing with each other.     

需求扰动下生产规模不经济闭环供应链的应急渠道决策

针对生产规模不经济闭环供应链，在突发事件干扰其产品的市场需求发生扰动的情况下，比较研究了各类回收渠道分散式决策系统和集中式决策系统的应急均衡决策及契约协调问题。结果表明：当需求的扰动程度不大时，各类系统正常运营环境下新产品的订购量和废旧品的回收量等均衡决策均具鲁棒性，当需求的扰动程度较大时，各类系统均应按其扰动方向调整正常运营环境下制定的均衡决策；制造商回收渠道分散式决策系统中其获得的利润和系统的总利润均高于零售商回收渠道分散式决策系统的，且制造商会利用更高比例的废旧品生产再造品，因此其应直接回收废旧品；各企业的利润和系统的总利润均随生产规模不经济弹性系数的增加而降低；设计的应急收益费用共享契约可协调解决各类回收渠道分散式决策系统中存在的"双重边际效应"问题，且各企业可通过讨价还价确定收益费用共享比例的取值来获得帕累托改进的利润。     

Technical Note—Demand Uncertainty Reduction in Decentralized Supply Chains

This note analyzes the effects associated with reducing demand uncertainty in a decentralized supply chain comprising one manufacturer, one retailer, and a wholesale price contract that governs the transactions between them. The demand uncertainty level is parameterized through a mean‐preserving spread, and the manufacturer's and the retailer's equilibrium decisions are solved accordingly. We consider the case of an exogenous retail price as well as the case of an endogenous retail price, and we find in both cases that the manufacturer's and the retailer's expected profits in equilibrium are not necessarily monotone decreasing in the uncertainty level. Thus, we find that, even if the cost of reducing demand uncertainty is zero, uncertainty reduction can hurt rather than benefit either or both members of the supply chain.     

电子商务环境下双渠道供应链协调的补偿策略研究

构建了电子商务环境下由一个制造商与一个零售商组成的双渠道供应链模型,分析、比较了集中式决策与分散式决策下双渠道供应链的最优价格,从电子渠道与传统渠道合作的角度出发,研究了双渠道供应链协调的补偿策略,论证了这种补偿策略能够实现双渠道供应链协调,且在一定范围内可以保证双渠道供应链成员的双赢.最后通过算例分析,进一步检验了所设计的补偿策略对双渠道供应链协调的有效性.     

Value of and Interaction between Production Postponement and Information Sharing Strategies for Supply Chain Firms

We analyze the value of and interaction between production postponement and information sharing, which are two distinct strategies to reduce manufacturers’ uncertainty about demand. In both single‐level and two‐level supply chains, from the manufacturer's perspective, while information sharing is always valuable, production postponement can sometimes be detrimental. Furthermore, the value of production postponement is not merely driven by savings in inventory holding cost as postponement enables the manufacturer to avoid both excess and shortfall in production. We find that production postponement and information sharing strategies may substitute, complement, or conflict with each other, depending on the extent of the increase in the unit production cost when production is postponed. In a two‐level supply chain, from the retailer's perspective, information sharing and production postponement can be beneficial or detrimental. When information sharing is beneficial to the retailer, the retailer always shares her demand information with the manufacturer voluntarily. In addition, this voluntary information sharing is truthful because inflated or deflated demand information hurts the retailer through a higher wholesale price or a stock‐out. However, the retailer never shares her demand information voluntarily if the manufacturer has already adopted production postponement because production postponement and information sharing strategies always conflict with each other. Even when the retailer does not benefit from information sharing, we show that the manufacturer can always design an incentive mechanism to induce the retailer to share the demand information, irrespective of whether the manufacturer has already implemented production postponement or not. The above findings underscore the need for a careful assessment of demand uncertainty‐reduction strategies before the supply chain players embark upon them.     

Competitive and Collaborative Quality and Warranty Management in Supply Chains

Product quality and product warranty coverage are two important and closely related operational decisions. A longer warranty protection period can boost sales, but it may also result in dramatically increased warranty cost, if product quality is poor. To investigate how these two decisions interact with each other and influence supply chain performance, we develop a single‐period model with a supplier that provides a product to an original equipment manufacturer, which in turn sells it to customers. Customer demand is random and affected by the length of the product warranty period. Warranty costs are incurred by both the supplier and the manufacturer. We analyze two different scenarios based on which party sets the warranty period: manufacturer warranty and supplier warranty. Product quality is controlled by the supplier, and the manufacturer determines the ordering quantity. We analyze these decentralized systems and provide the structural properties of the equilibrium strategies. We also compare the results of centralized and decentralized systems and identify the conditions under which one system provides a longer warranty and better product quality than the other. Our numerical study further shows that, in decentralized settings, when the warranty period is determined by the firm sharing the larger proportion of total warranty costs, the supply chain can achieve greater system‐wide profit. Both parties can therefore benefit from properly delegating the warranty decision and sharing the resulting additional profit. We further design a supplier‐development and buy‐back contract for coordinating decentralized supply chains. Several extensions are also discussed.     

Robust Predictions in Games With Incomplete Information

We analyze games of incomplete information and offer equilibrium predictions that are valid for, and in this sense robust to, all possible private information structures that the agents may have. The set of outcomes that can arise in equilibrium for some information structure is equal to the set of Bayes correlated equilibria. We completely characterize the set of Bayes correlated equilibria in a class of games with quadratic payoffs and normally distributed uncertainty in terms of restrictions on the first and second moments of the equilibrium action–state distribution. We derive exact bounds on how prior knowledge about the private information refines the set of equilibrium predictions. We consider information sharing among firms under demand uncertainty and find new optimal information policies via the Bayes correlated equilibria. We also reverse the perspective and investigate the identification problem under concerns for robustness to private information. The presence of private information leads to set rather than point identification of the structural parameters of the game.     

Impacts of Power Structure on Supply Chains with Uncertain Demand

In this study, we use a game‐theory‐based framework to model power in a supply chain with random and price‐dependent demand and examine how power structure and demand models (expected demand and demand shock) affect supply chain members' performance. We demonstrate that whether a firm benefits from its power depends on the expected demand model but not on demand shock model. A firm benefits from its power only for linear but not for constant elasticity expected demand. The impact of power structure on supply chain efficiency depends on the models of both expected demand and demand shock. With additive shock, supply chain efficiency is highest (lowest) when neither firm dominates for linear (constant elasticity) expected demand. With multiplicative shock, the supply chain efficiency is highest with a power retailer (manufacturer) for linear (constant elasticity) expected demand. The manufacturer always benefits from a reduction in demand uncertainty. However, the retailer loses (benefits) from demand uncertainty reduction for linear (constant elasticity) expected demand. With a power retailer, the retail price is always on the higher end for linear expected demand, and the customer service level is the lowest for constant elasticity expected demand. Consequently, consumers do not necessarily benefit from a power retailer.     

A numerical analysis of supply chain performance under split decision rights

We examine periodic review supply chain models where order quantity and shipping frequency are both decision variables and decision-making rights are split between supply chain agents. We address two general questions: (1) when does decentralized decision making result in the greatest loss in supply chain performance; and (2) what effect does the distribution of channel power have on performance loss. We characterize optimal policies where possible in each scenario and we use numerical analysis to generate insights. We find that performance losses from decentralized control are somewhat limited in our results due to risk pooling and that the magnitude of performance loss is strongly influenced by the relative holding and penalty costs, but somewhat invariant to demand uncertainty. Furthermore, we find that concentrating channel power with the supplier can lead to supply chain profits that are very close to a centralized scenario, but also results in lower customer service levels.     

The closed-loop supply chain network with competition,distribution channel investment,and uncertainties

In this paper, a closed-loop supply chain network is investigated with decentralized decision-makers consisting of raw material suppliers, retail outlets, and the manufacturers that collect the recycled product directly from the demand market. We derive the optimality conditions of the various decision-makers, and establish that the governing equilibrium conditions can be formulated as a finite-dimensional variational inequality problem. We establish convergence of the proposed algorithm that can allow for the discussion of the effects of competition, distribution channel investment, yield and conversion rates, combined with uncertainties in demand, on equilibrium quantity transactions and prices. Numerical examples are provided for illustration.     

Committed Versus Contingent Pricing Under Competition

Should capacitated firms set prices responsively to uncertain market conditions in a competitive environment? We study a duopoly selling differentiated substitutable products with fixed capacities under demand uncertainty, where firms can either commit to a fixed price ex ante, or elect to price contingently ex post, e.g., to charge high prices in booming markets, and low prices in slack markets. Interestingly, we analytically show that even for completely symmetric model primitives, asymmetric equilibria of strategic pricing decisions may arise, in which one firm commits statically and the other firm prices contingently; in this case, there also exists a unique mixed strategy equilibrium. Such equilibrium behavior tends to emerge, when capacity is ampler, and products are less differentiated or demand uncertainty is lower. With asymmetric fixed capacities, if demand uncertainty is low, a unique asymmetric equilibrium emerges, in which the firm with more capacity chooses committed pricing and the firm with less capacity chooses contingent pricing. We identify two countervailing profit effects of contingent pricing under competition: gains from responsively charging high price under high demand, and losses from intensified price competition under low demand. It is the latter detrimental effect that may prevent both firms from choosing a contingent pricing strategy in equilibrium. We show that the insights remain valid when capacity decisions are endogenized. We caution that responsive price changes under aggressive competition of less differentiated products can result in profit‐killing discounting.     

Strategic Supply Function Competition With Private Information

A finite number of sellers (n) compete in schedules to supply an elastic demand. The cost of each seller is random, with common and private value components, and the seller receives a private signal about it. A Bayesian supply function equilibrium is characterized: The equilibrium is privately revealing and the incentives to rely on private signals are preserved. Supply functions are steeper with higher correlation among the cost parameters. For high (positive) correlation, supply functions are downward sloping, price is above the Cournot level, and as we approach the common value case, price tends to the collusive level. As correlation becomes maximally negative, we approach the competitive outcome. With positive correlation, private information coupled with strategic behavior induces additional distortionary market power above full information levels. Efficiency can be restored with appropriate subsidy schemes or with a precise enough public signal about the common value component. As the market grows large with the number of sellers, the equilibrium becomes price‐taking, bid shading is on the order of 1/n, and the order of magnitude of welfare losses is 1/n². The results extend to inelastic demand, demand uncertainty, and demand schedule competition. A range of applications in product and financial markets is presented.     

供应链中双重混合渠道分销的价格竞争及均衡分析

分销渠道决策是企业能否将产品送达市场并获利的决定因素,因此,分销渠道一直是商家的必争之地。随着网络及信息技术的快速发展,渠道之争也跃进到了虚拟分销渠道之上。本文针对制造商与零售商同时具有实体与网络两种分销渠道的双重混合分销渠道结构模式,分别基于分散控制和集中控制两种情况建立博弈模型,研究了制造商与零售商的价格竞争策略。最后通过数值实验分析了不同条件下制造商与零售商的均衡价格、销售量及利润的变化趋势,并得出了具有启发性结论。     

信息不对称对闭环供应链MTO和MTS模式的影响研究

在MTO(按订单生产)和MTS(按库存生产)两种模式下,比对了信息不对称和信息共享下产品定价、废旧品回收率和零售商利润的区别,研究结果显示:(1) 产品定价、废旧品回收率和零售商利润不受生产模式改变的影响;(2) 在某些条件下,信息共享下产品的批发价、零售价、和废旧品回收率均高于信息不对称时的相应值,进行信息共享会增加闭环供应链的总体利润,但零售商有可能通过信息共享丧失信息优势,从而使得其利润受损。因此为了促使零售商参与信息共享,信息共享参与方应投资建立安全的通信系统,以保证共享信息不被泄露。另外本文通过引入纳什讨价还价模型建立了一个公平的利润划拨机制,该机制使得最后的利润划分只取决于各参与方的议价能力,与各参与方对通信系统投资大小无关。     

混合渠道下2-2 可替代品供应链中交叉选择及均衡分析

在不同批发价格策略下探讨产品间可替代程度对供应链交叉选择的影响。选择由两个制造商和两个零售商构成的供应链为研究对象,分别探讨了制造商向零售商提供统一批发价格和实施批发价格歧视时混合渠道中的交叉选择及均衡结果。研究结果表明,当制造商向零售商提供统一批发价格,产品间可替代性低时,交叉选择将会发生。产品间可替代性高时,制造商倾向于采用单一的销售渠道,交叉选择将不会发生;当实施批发价格歧视时,产品间的替代性低时,双向交叉选择将成为均衡的结果;采用分散销售渠道的制造商不会仅选择集成销售渠道中的零售商。最后,用实例分析验证了研究结论。     

An Integrated Model of Cumulative Growth: Empirical Evidence for Nine OECD Countries, 1960-1990

ABSTRACT: This paper is an empirical analysis of the interaction between the dynamics of demand, productivity and employment in nine industrial countries: the United States, Canada, Japan, West Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Belgium, 1960-1990. Its theoretical framework derives from the Kaldorian approach to cumulative growth in both its external and internal causation versions. The model we adopt is of an integrated kind, in which foreign demand is determined endogenously and domestic demand is divided into various component parts: exogenous for the public sector and endogenous for the private. More specifically, this is carried out by describing the way the dynamics of private consumption and private investments depend on economic variables located in the spheres of distribution and of technology, so that we can consider the operations of income compensation effects induced by technological change — via changes in income and its social distribution — as well as price compensation effects— the higher competitiveness of national products in foreign markets — mediated through the dynamics of exports.     

补偿激励下双渠道供应链协调的合同设计

针对电子商务环境下传统零售与网上直销并存的双渠道模式,在促销-价格敏感需求与促销补偿激励等条件下构建了模型,分析、比较了集中式与分散式决策下供应链最优的促销投入、促销补偿投资与定价策略,研究了促使双渠道达成协调的合同设计.研究发现:单独利用两部定价合同不能有效地协调双渠道供应链;而两部定价合同与促销水平补偿合同的组合能够实现供应链协调和渠道成员双赢,且满足这种条件的组合合同有无穷多个.