人口老龄化、金融资产结构与宏观经济波动效应

本文构建了一个包含平均年龄异质性家庭和创新异质性企业的动态随机一般均衡模型,模拟分析人口老龄化对宏观经济的冲击效应得出:随着中国人口老龄化程度的提高,家庭持有的流动性金融资产占金融总资产的比例上升、资本性金融资产所占比重逐渐下降,从而引起宏观金融结构的变动;中国人口老龄化引发的金融结构变动将导致劳动减少、消费减少、产出降低,甚至影响企业创新投资降低,进而导致高投资的经济增长模式发生变化。研究结论的政策含义在于:劳动增长依赖、投资增长依赖、技术模仿依赖都难以为继,经济高质量发展的动力应集中到创新方面,激励企业技术创新是市场机制改革的重要方向,引导市场资金对技术创新型企业的投资支持,同时应避免企业技术创新投资的剧烈上涨造成经济震荡。     

多代新技术的最优投资策略和扩散研究——一种实物期权方法

本文通过将新技术的出现描述为泊松过程,在未来多代新技术和投资成本随新技术出现不断下降的情形下,通过新技术采纳的累积概率分布函数,研究企业最优的技术投资策略以及新技术的扩散过程。在分析未来两代新技术的情形时,对比净现值(NPV)法则下得到的企业最优投资策略,由于NPV法忽视了企业推迟投资的期权价值,企业在NPV方法下只能得到次优的决策。数字释例显示出企业的技术采纳行为如何受到创新速度、折现率、投资成本及其下降幅度的影响。进一步在无穷代新技术的情形下,得到了企业最迟投资时间的计算方法。本文模型可以用来预测现实中企业的投资策略,并为实证分析新技术的采纳和扩散过程提供了理论支持。     

Long-term Success of Adaptation Strategies: Evidence from Finnish Companies

This study analyses the success of adaptation strategies applied by Finnish companies during the recession in 1989–93. Five different strategies emerged from data gleaned from a questionnaire answered by 750 companies. In the medium term, investment in new product development and marketing and in the acquisition of new customers was the most successful strategy while a strategy heavily based on negotiating finance contracts and restructuring was the most unsuccessful. To evaluate the long-term effects of adopted strategies, financial statements from 644 companies in 1994 and 1997 were analysed. The results supported the medium-term conclusions. In general, they suggested that in the long-term, active adaptation strategies are most likely to lead to sustained success whereas passive (financial) strategies are associated with a high risk of failure.     

From primary care physician employment to private practice: easing the transition

In most cases, the practice acquisition and employment strategy of the 1990s has backfired, with acquired physician practices losing in the range of $50,000 to $100,000 or more per physician annually. There are two alternatives for addressing the operating deficits incurred from practice ownership and physician employment: (1) restructuring through the implementation of network-wide and practice-specific initiatives to improve financial performance; or (2) wholesale (i.e., all practices) or selective practice divestiture, depending on the individual practice financial performance and "fit" with the physician network strategic priorities. Unraveling a decade's worth of physician-health system relationships that are grounded by the notion of acquisition and employment is going to be a complex process for both parties. But given the magnitude of financial losses on acquired practices and the inability of health care providers to sustain future losses, there simply are not options beyond restructuring or divesting these relationships.     

Resilienzf?rdernde M?glichkeiten der Teamsupervision bei Changeprozessen

Supervisors frequently are confronted with emotional and social effects of efficiency-driven restructuring and process optimizations. Using case studies as well as conceptual ideas, the article explores whether and how the resilience of affected employees can be fostered in the frame of supervision. Promoting resilience within supervision is not to be mistaken as a further attempt to stretch employees?? limits. Rather, we conceive of it as an attempt to make employees aware of the centrifugal powers of every day working routines and to promote decisions for joint investment in cooperation??to make team work worthwhile, even in strenuous times.     

Strategic information management in global manufacturing

Responding to new forces on the competitive landscape, global manufacturing companies are restructuring corporate cultures, organizational cofigurations and management coordination channels and styles. The emergence of flexibility as a prime competitive parameter for manufacturing is paralleled by companies shifting toward flexible, adaptive structures. A major challenge is to develop and deploy information technologies linking organizational subgroups for a streamlines process of new product/service creation and delivery. This article describes the convergence of information management and manufacturing activities over the past 30 years and suggests what the future will hold.     

Careering Downwards? Middle Managers' Experiences in the Downsized Organization

The future of middle management has been the focus of attention in the media, following a period of unprecedented restructuring in organizations. However, there are mixed messages in the literature on the impact that this restructuring has had on middle managers' roles and careers, as well as on their reaction to these changes. It is the aim of this paper to address some of these tensions and contradictions. The research presented here is based on a two-year study of middle management in 50 organizations across both the public and private sectors, involving semi-structured interviews with middle managers and key decision-makers. The findings show that, paradoxically, whilst middle managers report feelings of greater job satisfaction from increased empowerment over their work roles, this is in tandem with working in intensified work regimes with increased pressures and stress. Many middle managers are still looking towards hierarchical career progression as the main reward for their continued commitment, despite this being significantly diminished in the downsized, delayered organization. The denial of this reward for what is seen by many middle managers as excessive work demands, it is suggested, will ultimately lead to middle managers becoming increasingly bitter and jaundiced.     

债务保守、市场竞争与上市公司资本投资

运用1999~2008年中国上市公司的不平衡动态面板数据模型进行实证分析。研究结论表明:公司的债务保守行为与公司未来的资本投资显著相关;公司的债务保守行为与公司面临的市场竞争激烈程度不存在显著性相关。同时,股利分配会促进公司的资本投资;公司规模对公司的投资具有正面作用。这些都表明公司债务保守的目的是为了未来的资本投资,而并非由产品市场竞争所导致。     

The impact of tax uncertainty on irreversible investment

Traditional models of capital budgeting with taxes are based on deterministic tax rates and tax bases. In reality, however, there are multiple sources of tax uncertainty. Frequent tax reforms make future taxation of investments a stochastic process. Fiscal authorities and tax courts create additional tax uncertainty by interpreting current tax laws differently. Moreover, simplified models that anticipate the actual tax base incorrectly contribute to tax uncertainty as perceived by investors. I analyze the effects of stochastic taxation on investment behavior in a real options model. The investor holds an option to invest in an irreversible project with stochastic cash flows and stochastic tax payments. Pre-tax cash flows and tax payments are assumed to be correlated. Increased tax uncertainty has an ambiguous impact on investment timing. For low tax uncertainty, high cash flow uncertainty and high correlation of cash flows and tax payments, increased tax uncertainty is likely to accelerate investment. A higher expected tax payment delays investment. A higher after-tax discount rate affects investment timing ambiguously.     

The future of American health care in the "post-reform" era

"As the debate over health care reform rages in Washington, the market is reforming itself. For any given market, it's a question of 'How soon will it hit?', not 'Will it hit?'" Health care reform and market restructuring are ushering in a new era of integrated health care. Although the future is not fully clear, there are at least three competing models for the creation of regional and statewide health systems that will integrate the financing and delivery of services to large enrolled populations of consumers: Payer-driven networks. Provider-sponsored systems. Partnership models. Whatever the future scenario, physician executives will play a larger, more dominant role. Research on integrated health systems has identified three critical success factors for future success: physician-hospital integration, clinical integration and information integration. For managed care to be successful, there must be clinical leadership. The essence of managing care is clinical efficiency, based on "critical-path" treatment protocols and real-time patient care management, supported by integrated information systems.     

券商盈利空间的实证分析和策略研究

本文通过实证研究发现,在我国券商的三项主要业务中,自营及传统的委托理财业务,从中长期看是券商风险最大的业务;经纪业务是券商收入结构中的主要部分;投行业务虽然行业利润并不高,但却较为稳定,还有很大的拓展空间。目前我国券商的业务结构并不符合各项业务的上述特点,存在着风险与收益的不对称,因此券商需要重新调整业务结构、业务规模和赢利模式。业务调整的核心是:向以中介为特点的金融服务方向转型。政策上,应该创造有利于券商创新的公平合理的竞争环境。     

Planning for technological innovation part I. Investment in technology

In the modern industrial age, investment can no longer be seen purely in terms of expenditure on hardware or ‘tangible’ investment; the knowledge content or ‘intangible’ investment is equally important. Of course, intangible investment was always a feature of the manufacturing business but in earlier times the additional effort was mostly supplied by the entrepreneur. The complexity of modern technology, the multidisciplinary skills required and the sheer speed of change have altered this; except possibly in the new venture companies. It follows that a full understanding of the effects of technological change on industry can only be obtained if all aspects of investment are identified and measured. It is then possible to determine how much of its resources any particular industry is allocating to its promotion of products for the future, and whether this has changed significantly over time.

This paper therefore is concerned with the totality of investment, its size, content and economic importance.     

研发投入对企业绩效的影响研究 ——基于企业金融化水平门限回归

本文选取1435家A股上市公司2011—2018年度的面板数据,以企业金融化水平作为门限变量,研究企业研发投入对企业绩效的非线性影响关系。研究结果表明:(1)企业金融化行为给研发投入对企业绩效的促进作用带来严重的时滞效应,研发投入对当年企业绩效不存在促进作用;(2)研发投入对未来一年企业绩效有双门限效应,二者呈倒N型关系,在第二区间内研发投入促进未来一年企业绩效;研发投入对未来二年企业绩效有单门限效应,在第一区间内研发投入促进未来二年企业绩效;(3)在适度的企业金融化水平区间内,研发投入才会促进未来企业绩效。本文指出上市公司金融化水平最优区间占比分布具有区域、行业和企业性质异质性,并进一步基于实证研究结果提出了相应的政策建议,有利于企业合理管理研发投入和防止企业脱实向虚。     

债务保守、投资机会与中国上市公司资本投资

国内对于财务保守行为的研究,均是从产品市场竞争角度展开的。然而,这些研究并没有得出一致的结论。公司的财务保守目的,是给公司提供一定程度的财务灵活性,便于公司在未来使用这种灵活性。当公司遇到有利的投资机会时,具有这种灵活性的公司能够抓住有利的投资机会,进行资本投资。运用1999-2008年中国上市公司的不平衡面板数据,采用动态面板模型进行了实证分析。实证结论表明:公司的财务保守行为与公司未来的投资机会高度显著相关;公司的财务保守行为与公司未来的资本投资高度显著相关。同时,动态面板回归结果也显示,公司的财务保守行为和公司的投资支出都具有时间连续性,与其滞后项高度显著相关。     

Taxonomy of ERP integrations and performance outcomes: an exploratory study of manufacturing firms

Building and deploying network capabilities of firms are crucial for sustaining competitive advantage. Enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems are useful to enhance such network capabilities thorough effective information flows. Their intended goals are measured in terms of production costs, operational flexibility and supply chain performance outcomes. However, the impact of ERP system implementation on firm performance has been reported as somewhat inconclusive. This study contends that a missing link in the story is the scope and extent of ERP system implementation after investigating how the extent of ERP integration is associated with the performance outcomes of manufacturing firms. The study also posits that restructuring in the organisation and supply chains are positively associated with manufacturing performance. Since ERP often entails restructuring in an organisation and supply chains, it is anticipated that restructuring plays an important role in inducing positive impact of ERP implementation to the firm. Using a global sample of 641 manufacturers, this research identifies four distinct ERP systems integration patterns, epitomised by different extents and directions of integration, and finds a significant association among the broadest degree of ERP systems integration, restructuring and plant performance improvement. The empirical results also show that restructuring takes place most actively in a firm that implement ERP with widest scope and scale.     

The Contingent-Claims Approach to Investment Decisions*

This paper presents a contingent-claims approach to project valuation when capital expenditures are made sequentially over time. It focuses on an important facet of sequential investment projects that the firm can undertake—or pass up projects—as more information becomes available. The contingent-claims approach takes account of this important feature of firms' investment decision process, whereas the traditional capital budgeting procedure does not. Since the traditional method does not reflect the options nature of investment opportunities, it underestimates the value of sequential investment projects. As a result, a naive implementation of the traditional capital budgeting procedure could result in rejecting profitable projects. The extent of undervaluation associated with the traditional capital budgeting procedure is greater when the correlation between the random component of the future asset value and that of the required capital expenditure is smaller and/or when the growth rate of the required capital expenditure is higher.     

不确定环境下新技术投资策略模型研究

探讨企业关于可升级换代新技术的投资策略选择问题,建立了基于实物期权方法的投资分析模型,模型有完备的解析解.阐述分析了企业可选择的五种基本投资策略,这些策略充分考虑了隐含的期权价值,可为企业管理者提供有益的决策参考和实践指导.     

The impact of restructuring on employee well-being: a systematic review of longitudinal studies

This is a review of published longitudinal empirical research on the impact of restructuring on employee well-being. We investigated whether restructuring accompanied by staff reductions impacts differently on worker well-being than restructuring without staff reductions, and the differences between short- and long-term effects of restructuring. Furthermore, we investigated the mechanisms that explain these effects. We conducted a literature search on longitudinal, peer-reviewed, English-written studies from the period 2000–2012. Thirty-nine papers fulfilled the inclusion criteria. We found that restructuring events, with and without staff reductions, mainly have a negative impact on the well-being of employees. The majority of studies showed negative changes over time, in the short and the long term. Some groups of workers reacted less negatively: for example, workers with a high organizational status before a merger and workers who underwent a change in workgroup. Variables that intervened in the relationship between restructuring and well-being were physical demands, job control, communication, provision of information, training, procedural justice, job insecurity and change acceptance. Further high-quality longitudinal research is needed to get more insight into the impact of restructuring over time and into the part played by intervening variables.     

LOGISTICS PARTNERSHIPS AND SUPPLY CHAIN RESTRUCTURING: SURVEY RESULTS FROM THE U.S. COMPUTER INDUSTRY

This research investigates the interaction between formation of logistics partnerships and supply chain restructuring in the U.S. computer industry via a survey of 30 ongoing partnerships. Partnerships that have included restructuring are compared to those that have not. Examples of representative partnerships are presented. The survey results indicate that restructurers use partnerships to facilitate restructuring. Restructurers and non-restructurers form partnerships for different reasons and realize different types of benefits. Furthermore, restructurers realize greater benefits than do non-restructurers and view their partnerships as more successful. Restructurers report dramatic improvements in logistics cost (1l-30%) and order cycle time (62%). The research contributes to the existing literature by highlighting restructuring as an important aspect of logistics partnership formation and by presenting empirical data that shows how the two strategies are linked.