Rethinking the “early” decline of marital fertility in the united states

In this article, I rely on new estimates of nineteenth-century mortality and the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series to construct new estimates of white fertility in the nineteenth-century United States. Unlike previous estimates that showed a long-term decline in overall fertility beginning at or before the turn of the nineteenth century, the new estimates suggest that U.S. fertility did not begin its secular decline until circa 1840. Moreover, new estimates of white marital fertility, based on "own-children" methods, suggest that the decline in marital fertility did not begin in the nation as a whole until after the Civil War (1861-1865).     

Quantitative aspects of marriage,fertility and family limitation in nineteenth century America: Another application of the coale specifications

This paper deals with three aspects of the decline in the fertility of white women in the United States from 1800 to 1920. The first concerns the portion of the secular decline in the total fertility rate which was due to changes in marriage rates and the portion due to decreases in marital fertility rates. The second concerns the fraction of couples in the nineteenth century who acted effectively to reduce their fertility and the third deals with the importance of abortion as a family-limiting practice among white couples in the nineteenth century.     

The demographic premises of affirmative action

The premise of affirmative action in the Sixties was that it was a temporary intervention necessary to help blacks overcome the legacy of slavery and segregation. Three decades later, affirmative action encompasses many other groups and has spread to a wide variety of programs. The growth, diversity, and increasing prosperity of non-black affirmative action groups, however, raises questions about the future role of race and ethnic preferences.     

Womens education and diffusion of the fertility transition: The case of Egypt 1960–1996 in 4905 administrative subdivisions

Egypt comprises thousands of small geographic units. Total fertility rates are reconstructed for the 4905qism, qarya, medina, markaz andshiyakhat covering non-desert Egypt at the 1960, 1976, 1986 and 1996 censuses. This fine spatial scale reveals that heterogeneity across subdivisions increased during the fertility transition, illustrating the rapidity of change. Spatial patterns appear in the fertility upsurge of 1974–85, which is accompanied by a large but temporary reduction in heterogeneity. Fertility varies greatly between subdivisions and geographic differentials underlie the expected and observed association between fertility, literacy, family transfers and industrialization. Cairo led the decline of fertility, but that decline is counterbalanced by rapid economic growth and persistently high levels of illiteracy. A similar pattern of fertility change is observed for the chief city of the Muhafaza and its surrounding area. Egypt presents an archetype of demographic transition as improved economic and educational status diffuses across the country, moderated by its specific geography.     

Race Disparities in Pubertal Timing: Implications for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Among African American Women

Compared to white girls, sexual maturation is accelerated in African American girls as measured by indicators of pubertal development, including age at first menses. Increasing epidemiological evidence suggests that the timing of pubertal development may have strong implications for cardio-metabolic health in adolescence and adulthood. In fact, younger menarcheal age has been related prospectively to poorer cardiovascular risk factor profiles, a worsening of these profiles over time, and an increase in risk for cardiovascular events, including non-fatal incident cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular-specific and all-cause mortality. Yet, because this literature has been limited almost exclusively to white girls/women, whether this same association is present among African American girls/women has not been clarified. In the current narrative review, the well-established vulnerability of African American girls to experience earlier pubertal onset is discussed as are findings from literatures examining the health outcomes of earlier pubertal timing and its antecedents, including early life adversity exposures often experienced disproportionately in African American girls. Gaps in these literatures are highlighted especially with respect to the paucity of research among minority girls/women, and a conceptual framework is posited suggesting disparities in pubertal timing between African American and white girls may partially contribute to well-established disparities in adulthood risk for cardio-metabolic disease between African American and white women. Future research in these areas may point to novel areas for intervention in preventing or lessening the heightened cardio-metabolic risk among African American women, an important public health objective.     

Measuring the effect of changing legislation on the frequency of divorce: The Netherlands, 1830–1990

This article discusses different procedures for measuring the effects of judicial changes on divorce rates. It presents an alternative model and applies it to a historical time series for the Netherlands. In this model, intervention variables were added to a statistical time-series (ARIMA) model. The conclusion of our analysis was that the effects of three judicial changes were only temporary. Revised text of a paper presented at the seminar “The Role of the State and of Public Opinion in Sexual Attitudes and Demographic Behaviour since the 18th Century,” 17th International Congress of Historical Sciences/ Commission Internationale de Démographie Historique, held in Madrid, August 31-September 1, 1990. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the policies of the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics.     

Marital and fertility careers of Russian women born between 1910 and 1934

Women born in Russia in the early decades of this century grew up in a period characterized by profound societal changes. Their lives were affected by often devastating events, in particular World War II, that ravaged society when they were entering their childbearing years. This note presents a detailed demographic analysis of the marital and fertility careers of women born between 1910 and 1934 based on individual retrospective life histories, collected in the most recent (5 percent) 1994 microcensus of the Russian Federation. It assesses the influence of external events on age at first marriage, widowhood, divorce, childlessness, parity, and age at birth. A comparison with younger cohorts shows that the societal disturbances had strong temporary effects. However, the final outcomes were not influenced very much: completed fertility continued its slow, secular decline.     

Explaining the Female Black-White Obesity Gap: A Decomposition Analysis of Proximal Causes

There exist remarkably large differences in body weights and obesity prevalence between black and white women in the United States; and crucially, these differences are a significant contributor to black-white inequalities in health. In this article, we investigate the most proximal explanations for the weight gap: namely, differences in diet and exercise. More specifically, we decompose black-white differences in body mass index and waist-to-height ratio into components reflecting black-white differences in energy intake and energy expenditure. The analysis indicates that overconsumption is much more important than a lack of exercise in explaining the weight gap, which suggests that diet interventions will have to play a fundamental role if the weight gap between black and white women is to decline.     

Social and economic factors in Hong Kong's fertility decline

Abstract In both developed and underdeveloped areas, many attempts have been made to alter the course of fertility through family planning intervention. Doubtless the availability of such services facilitates birth control for those who already desire to use it. Whether or not such exogenous interventions have any independent effect upon the operation of endogenous forces in the economy and society is, however, more problematical. Where fertility declines have been observed, family planning services have often been made widely available only after the decline in fertility had already set in. Nonetheless, observers have often attempted to attribute some fraction of the continuing decline in fertility to the operation of family planning activities. One especially notable case is that of Hong Kong, which provides some of the more persuasive evidence about the independent effects of family planning intervention.     

Post-disaster fertility: Hurricane Katrina and the changing racial composition of New Orleans

Large-scale climate events can have enduring effects on population size and composition. Natural disasters affect population fertility through multiple mechanisms, including displacement, demand for children, and reproductive care access. Fertility effects, in turn, influence the size and composition of new birth cohorts, extending the reach of climate events across generations. We study these processes in New Orleans during the decade spanning Hurricane Katrina. We combine census data, ACS data, and vital statistics data to describe fertility in New Orleans and seven comparison cities. Following Katrina, displacement contributed to a 30% decline in birth cohort size. Black fertility fell, and remained 4% below expected values through 2010. By contrast, white fertility increased by 5%. The largest share of births now occurs to white women. These fertility differences—beyond migration-driven population change—generate additional pressure on the renewal of New Orleans as a city in which the black population is substantially smaller in the disaster’s wake.     

The Decomposition of Economic Outcomes as a Result of Changes in Brazil’s Male Age–Education Structure

In Brazil, the age and education compositions of the male labor force is changing with great regional variation. Based on Demographic Census microdata, results indicate that cohort size has a negative impact on earnings, but this effect is decreasing over time. In this study we consider the impact on earnings by age and education, as well as estimated income inequality reduction and racial differentials. Fertility decline and improve regarding educational attainment had a significant influence on the decline of income inequality in the country. Moreover, the non-white population has been experiencing less success in relation to educational achievement, compared to the white population.     

Immigrant assimilation pre and post labour market entry: evidence from the UK Labour Force Survey

We estimate models of employment an earnings for a sample of white and non-white male immigrants drawn from the Labour Force Survey between 1993 and 2004. Immigrants who arrived to enter the labour market (labour market entrants) are distinguished from those who arrived to complete their education (education entrants). Diverse patterns of labour market assimilation are found depending on ethnicity and immigrant type. Amongst labour market entrants, whites do better than non-whites, whilst amongst education entrants, highly qualified prime-age non-whites perform as well as their white counterparts. Relative to white natives, labour market outcomes for all immigrant groups have a tendency to decline with age.

Is Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing?

In 2001, more than half of Europe's population lived in countries with a total fertility rate (TFR) at or below 1.3. Use of the adjusted TFR proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney, which takes into account the effects of the ongoing fertility postponement, changes the European fertility map considerably. All 27 countries analyzed had adjusted TFRs in 1995–2000 above 1.4. Thus, the “lowest‐low” fertility in Europe may be interpreted as a temporary consequence of the increasing age at motherhood. However, substantial regional differences in fertility level across Europe persist even when the differential pace of fertility postponement is taken into account. The estimated adjusted TFRs in Europe (1.63) and in the 25‐member European Union (1.71) contrast with the TFR levels of 1.40 and 1.46, respectively. These seemingly small differences have vastly different implications in terms of the potential long‐term pace of population decline.     

Segmented generation mortality

For a clear understanding of the inherent changes in mortality with advance in age, it is necessary to observe the experience of generations rather than the cross-section of period experience. In fact, the latter may produce a misleading picture as can be illustrated in the case of tuberculosis. Period experience pointed to a rise in tuberculosis death rates with advance in age, whereas generation experience indicates a decline with aging, The present paper proposes the study of mortality changes of all generations existing at one period to a subsequent period. Some characteristics and trends in the changes in generation mortality of white males and white females since 1900 are discussed. It is pointed out, in particular, that since World War II white males have been experiencing a rapidly increasing rise in generation mortality with the approach of midlife. A comparison of generation mortality changes from 1950 to 1960 among countries of traditionally low mortality shows that only males in the other English-speaking countries may be undergoing the same experience as white males in the United States upon the approach of midlife. It is not evident in the Scandinavian countries and the Netherlands and in the other countries. The reason for these differences is not apparent.     

The categorical generation of organizational inequality: A comparative test of Tilly's durable inequality

This paper develops a theoretical and methodological application of Tilly's [Tilly, C. (1998). Durable inequality. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press] assertions that inequalities are inherently relational and categorical. We focus on the specific proposition that inequalities are exaggerated when categorical social distinctions are mapped onto positional distinctions internal to organizations. Using samples of Australian and U.S. organizations we examine the influence of sex and other status distinctions upon between-class wage inequality. In both countries class inequality is exaggerated when workers are women and managers men. These between-class inequality producing processes are also present for other categorical distinctions available in the data we use (education, permanent vs. temporary worker, dominant vs. marginal linguistic group in Australia, permanent vs. temporary worker and white vs. non-white in the U.S.). In the U.S. the coefficients for relational sex composition are twice as large as in Australia, suggesting historical–institutional differences between the countries enables gender to exert a stronger influence on between-class inequality in the U.S. We further examine the institutional differences in these categorical bases for inequality by examining the extent to which they vary within the two countries as a function of two historically relevant institutional distinctions in wage setting regimes—formalization in the U.S. and centralized wage awards in Australia. As expected these institutional differences shape the extent and type of between-class wage inequality. We conclude that researchers should move methodologically towards observing relations within organizations to reflect the theoretical advances of the past two decades.     

Infant mortality by Father’s occupation from the 1911 Census of England and Wales

Infant mortality in England and Wales only began its secular decline at the beginning of this century, although mortality among those aged 1-4 began to decline earlier. The 1911 Census of Fertility provides the basis for estimates of infant mortality among occupational groups. A diagrammatic model of decline is elaborated, using fertility decline, social class, income, and urban/rural distribution as explanatory variables. Results of the analysis suggest that infant mortality decline, whose average value was 35 percent from a peak of 132 per 1,000, was increased by improvements in the urban environment and advanced by high or regular income, whereas fertility decline had only a small effect.     

Understanding U.S. fertility: findings from the National Survey of Family Growth,Cycle III

The 1st overview of findings from Cycle III of the National Survey of Family Growth, the latest of 7 such surveys of US fertility since 1955 and the 1st to cover all women of childbearing age in the conterminous US is presented. Interviews between August 1982 and February 1983 with 7969 women, representative of 54 million women aged 15-44, reveal that sterilization is now the leading contraceptive method in the US, used by 33% of all contraceptors in 1982 (22%, female sterilization; 11% male sterilization), followed by the pill (29%), condom (12%), diaphragm (8%), and IUD (7%). Linked to this is the continuing decline in unwanted births since the baby boom peak in 1957, which accounted for nearly 1/2 of the drop between 1973 and 1982 in ever-married women's children ever born, from 2.2 to 1.9/woman. However, births conceived sooner than planned increased slightly among younger married women, probably due to the large drop in pill use since 1973 and increased use of the less effective diaphragm and condom among couples still intending to have more children. Black women are now more likely than white women to use the most effective female methods: female sterilization, pill, and IUD. Only 45% of women aged 15-44 in 1982 had used a contraceptive method at 1st intercourse. 4 out of 5 women married for the 1st time between 1975 and 1982 had intercourse before marriage. However, premarital sexual activity may be leveling off among white teenagers after a steep rise since the early 1970s and declining moderately among black teenagers. 16% of 1st marriages among ever-married women aged 15-44 in 1982 had been dissoved within 5 years, mostly by divorce or separation. 59% of black women with children in 1982 had their 1st birth before marriage, compared to 11% of white mothers. The proportion of babies who were breastfed more than doubled between 1970-71 and 1980-81, from 24 to 53%.     

Urbanization and de-urbanization of the black population before the civil war

Pre-Civil War black urbanization is examined using data from federal census records, 1790 to 1860. The black population is found to be as urban as the white population initially, but its urbanization underwent relative decline in the last two decades before the Civil War. Foreshadowing current patterns, the northern black population was heavily concentrated in the largest cities, and the free black population was the most urban of all groups. The timing of black urban decline in the North, as well as regional and size of place differences in that decline, suggest that both competition with immigrants in major eastern seaboard cities and the passage of the Fugitive Slave Law in 1850 contributed to black de-urbanization. For the South, the explanations of black urban decline proposed by Wade, Conrad and Meyer, Goldin, and Bonacich are evaluated, and Bonacich’s split labor market theory is judged to be most consistent with the demographic trends.     

Stepping stones for the unemployed: the effect of temporary jobs on the duration until (regular) work

Transitions from unemployment into temporary work are often succeeded by a transition from temporary into regular work. This paper investigates whether temporary work increases the transition rate to regular work. We use longitudinal survey data of individuals to estimate a multi-state duration model, applying the ‘timing of events’ approach. The data contain multiple spells in labour market states at the individual level. We analyse results using novel graphical representations, which unambiguously show that temporary jobs shorten the unemployment duration, although they do not increase the fraction of unemployed workers having regular work within a few years after entry into unemployment.     

政策创新的地理扩散——基于暂住证制度的地方实践分析

以暂住证制度为例，从时间和空间两个角度，对这一政策创新的地理扩散模式进行了分析。结果表明，尽管该政策的扩散受到了明显的垂直影响，在水平尺度上，表现出了明显的扩散效应，扩散曲线大致为S形：扩散早期，政策创新与经济社会发展条件关联度较高，随后政策扩散受到了显著的邻近区域影响，模仿学习占据主导，创新性表现不明显，政策的扩散甚至演变为公文的传播。准确找出地区面临的公共问题，以创新性的方式积极应对，全面贯彻实施政策创新，是经济社会迅速发展的背景之下地方政府的因应之道。