What Clean Break?: Education and Nonmetropolitan Migration Patterns, 1989–2004

Abstract Recent data suggest that nonmetropolitan America is experiencing an outmigration trend. Between 1998 and 2004, more people have moved out of nonmetropolitan areas than moved into these areas. This net outmigration trend presents a fundamental challenge to nonmetropol‐itan areas and contradicts the predictions of social scientists who argued that the rural renaissance of the 1970s represented a clean break with earlier patterns of internal migration. Using annual data from the 1989– 2004 rounds of the Current Population Survey March Demographic Supplement, this paper analyzes recent trends in metropolitan/nonmetro‐politan migration. It demonstrates that highly educated nonmetropolitan youth are leading contemporary nonmetropolitan outmigration. Contrary to the clean break theory, this paper argues that economic incentives continue to be relevant to current nonmetropolitan/metropolitan migration patterns.     

Volatility and Growth in Populations of Rural Associations

This article uses unique community‐level data aggregated from censuses of associations to analyze growth and volatility in rural populations of grassroots associations. A qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) shows that the two main paths to growth were (1) centralization in polycephalous (multicentered) municipalities and (2) population growth in secular municipalities. High volatility occurs in (1) societies exposed to metropolitan sprawl and (2) traditional peripheral communities with high organizational density and little sociocultural change. Despite this volatility, associational life expanded in the sprawling areas that underwent extensive sociocultural change as well as in the peripheral areas where centralization took place. By contrast, more static peripheries experienced decline. The findings challenge romanticized images of stable, small‐scale communities and nuance the negative view on metropolitan sprawl.     

Differential Recovery Migration across the Rural–Urban Gradient: Minimal and Short-Term Population Gains for Rural Disaster-Affected Gulf Coast Counties

Places affected or threatened by extreme environmental disturbances confront a number of significant issues, including whether their populations will stay the same or change through migration. Research on Hurricanes Katrina and Rita shows some displaced residents returned to their disaster-affected communities once the built environment was restored, new migrants settled in affected places as part of the rebuilding effort, and the regional migration system grew more urbanized and spatially concentrated during post-disaster years. Research also shows that not all disaster-affected places recovered their populations. Our study examines whether differential recovery is systematically patterned along the rural–urban gradient. Using U.S. Census Bureau estimates and IRS county-to-county migration data, we investigate whether the 2005 hurricane season differentially exacerbated or altered previous migration trends across a rural–urban gradient that incorporates proximity to metropolitan areas and disaster-related housing loss. We find a rural–urban differential in Gulf Coast recovery migration: The disaster boosted migration among non-metropolitan counties, yet these increases were smaller and short-lived compared to the patterns found for metropolitan counties, most especially high loss metropolitan counties. Our findings encourage theories of environmental migration to incorporate spatial differentiation and scenarios of environmental changes to account for differential impacts on settlement patterns across the rural–urban continuum.     

Nonmetropolitan Population Change in the Mountain West: 1970–1995

Abstract Current research on nonmetropolitan (nonmetro) population change shows that, to date, the 1990s are reminiscent of the 1970s rather than the 1980s. Nonmetro areas, including the Mountain West, are again gaining population through increases in net migration. Over the past several years, subareas within the Mountain West have experienced some of the fastest rates of population growth and economic expansion in the United States. Current growth patterns in the Mountain West are distinct from those in both the 1970s “rural renaissance” and the 1980s “nonmetro contraction” periods. Nonmetro counties in the Mountain West are growing at about the same rate as metropolitan (metro) counties, and although the growth rate is slower now than in the 1970s, more counties are participating in the growth. These findings support earlier research suggesting that nonmetro growth may not be ending.     

The Extended Metropolitan Area in a New EU Member State: Implications for a Rural Development Approach

I examine the role of rural development strategies in a new member state (Romania) of the European Union and, in particular, analyse the case of the metropolitan area of the Bucharest-Ilfov region. The analysis concerns the selected strategies for rural development in the programming period 2007–2013. It must be noted that Romania is divided into nonadministrative development regions and that the process of land privatisation is not yet concluded. These factors could have a negative influence on the implementation of the interventions. The analysed region is situated in the Southern part of the country and in the central part of the Romanian Plan. The total surface is about 1.8 square kilometres, of which 12.5% are occupied by the town of Bucharest and 87.5% by Ilfov County; however, approximately 88% of the population is concentrated in the urban center and only 12% in Ilfov County. The case study is characterised on the one hand by a high growth rate of the gross domestic product, a relatively low unemployment rate, and increasing consumer good sales (mainly food and beverages); on the other, by some marked disparities in macroeconomic indicators among regions and between rural and urban areas and an enormous lack of infrastructures. The case study thus calls for a local approach in order to identify the strategies required to improve the quality of life of the regional inhabitants (both in rural and urban areas) and to prevent pressure from the urban centre from compromising the rich rural heritage      

Spatial disintegration and arable land security in Egypt: A study of small- and moderate-sized urban areas

While commonly associated with regional ‘mega-cities’, rapid urbanization in the less-developed world has also begun to define growth in small- and moderate-sized settlements on the periphery of major metropolitan areas. The dispersal of population growth to these smaller areas holds significant implications for environmental, economic, and social health, and threatens local food security, increases congestions, and induces difficulty in service provision. This study examines the effects of spatial disintegration and rapid urbanization in the stock of arable land in Egypt. To assess this issue, the study will meet three objectives. First, we evaluate the relationship between population growth and urban land cover expansion in small- and moderate-sized settlements in Egypt. Second, we consider the role of selected geographic determinants in influencing the growth of these areas through the use of a regression model. The selection of an appropriate model type is a sub-objective and will be discussed further. Third, these drivers of growth will be assessed through their effects on the country’s stock of arable land. These objectives will be met through the development and application of the regression models, in order to examine the relationship between urban land expansion and several independent variables. An increase in population is found to have a positive and statistically significant effect on corresponding urban land cover area. Surprisingly, the variables commonly associated with urbanization in Egypt - proximity to major roads, the capital of Cairo, and the Nile River - though exhibiting a positive relationship with urban growth, are not statistically significant in the selected case studies. This research underlines the necessity for a combined approach to policy formation - with input from policy fields as varied as agriculture, urban planning, and land reclamation - to slow outward growth and maintain arable land stocks.     

Commuting and the rural-urban hierarchy

The purpose of this paper is to consider the relation between commuting and the settlement structure, with particular attention to rural and nonmetropolitan areas. I examined commuting flows between metropolitan central cities, other metropolitan areas, nonmetropolitan places with more than 10,000 people, those with 2500–10000 people, and other rural areas. Despite the deconcentration of population, industry and trade that was especially marked in the 1970s, commuting in 1980 was predominantly toward larger places in the ruralurban hierarchy, and particularly from rural areas and the other metropolitan category to cities. Overall levels of commuting were high, and most were within either nonmetropolitan or metropolitan areas. Smaller nonmetropolitan places particularly had high proportions of both in- and out-commuters. Differences in commuting flows by gender, socioeconomic status and industry were small, but generally in the directions expected on the basis of prior research. The findings reveal a high degree of work-residence interdependence among settlement units in nonmetropolitan America, with social and economic differences in commuting flows representing an important aspect of community structure.     

Outsourcing within the Nordic context: Care services for older people in Finland

The early 1990s economic setback brought significant reforms favoring the outsourcing of care in Finnish municipalities. Here, outsourcing refers to the practice of municipalities employing private organizations through different means (e.g., open tendering) to deliver public care services. In this context, this study examines the growth in the outsourcing of service housing and home-help services in 311 municipalities from 2001 to 2015 and investigates the municipal factors associated with outsourcing using four dimensions: care needs, population size, economic situation, and political ideology of the municipality. The findings reveal a steep increase in the outsourcing of home-help and service housing. Care needs of older people are the most influential factor for outsourcing, particularly for service housing. Overall, the findings show a growing trend in private care provision in Finnish municipalities.     

Immigrant Gateways and Hispanic Migration to New Destinations1

Our understanding of the underlying demographic components of population change in new Hispanic destinations is limited. In this paper, we (1) compare Hispanic migration patterns in traditional settlement areas with new growth in emerging Hispanic destinations; (2) examine the role of immigration vis‐à‐vis domestic migration in spurring Hispanic population redistribution; and (3) document patterns of migrant selectivity, distinguishing between in‐migrants and non‐migrant Hispanics at both the origin and destination. We use several recent datasets, including the 1990 and 2000 Public Use Microdata Samples (which include new regional geocodes), and the 2005 and 2006 files of the American Community Survey. Our results document the widespread dispersion of the Hispanic population over the 1990–2006 period from established Hispanic gateways into new Hispanic areas and other parts of the country. Nearly one‐half of Hispanic net migration in new destinations comes from domestic gains. In contrast, both established and other Hispanic areas depend entirely on immigration, with each losing domestic migrants to high growth areas. Migrant flows also are highly differentiated by education, citizenship, and nativity. To fully understand the spatial diffusion of Hispanics requires a new appreciation of the complex interplay among immigration, internal domestic migration, and fertility.     

Neither global nor local: Heterogeneous connectivity in spatial network structures of world migration

For a long time, geographic regions were considered the dominant spatial arbiter of international migration of people. However, since the late 1970s, many scholars have argued that movements reach beyond contiguous regions to connect distant, dispersed, and previously disconnected countries across the globe. The precise structure of world migration, however, remains an open question. We apply network analysis that incorporates spatial information to international migration-stock data to examine what multilateral structures of world migration have emerged from the interplay of regional concentration (local cohesion) and global interconnectedness (global cohesion) for the period 1960–2000. In the world migration network (WMN), nodes represent countries located in geographic space, and edges represent migrants from an origin country who live in a destination country during each decade. We characterize the large-scale structure and evolution of the WMN by algorithmically detecting international migration communities (i.e., sets of countries that are densely connected via migration) using a generalized modularity function for spatial, temporal, and directed networks. Our findings for the whole network suggest that movements in the WMN deviate significantly from the regional boundaries of the world and that international migration communities have become globally interconnected over time. However, we observe a strong variability in the distribution of strengths, neighborhood overlaps, and lengths of migration edges in the WMN. This manifests as three types of communities: global, local, and glocal. We find that long-distance movements in global communities bridge multiple non-contiguous countries, whereas local (and, to a lesser extent, glocal) communities remain trapped in contiguous geographic regions (or neighboring regions) for almost the whole period, contributing to a spatially fragmented WMN. Our findings demonstrate that world migration is neither regionally concentrated nor globally interconnected, but instead exhibits a heterogeneous connectivity pattern that channels unequal migration opportunities across the world.     

Ad hoc rural regionalism

A new regionalism has been much documented and researched for metropolitan areas; this article documents that there is a new rural regionalism as well. In the United States, these groups appear most likely to emerge in areas that are challenged by outcomes characterizing globalization's effects on the rural condition: namely, exurban or metropolitan sprawl and the resulting landscape fragmentation, often in combination with extreme pressure on the profitability of small farms or other resource uses. This research asks: what impetus is behind rural regional efforts; and what sort of processes of institutionalization do these groups utilize? The paper builds on theory developed by the new regional geographers over the last twenty years, most notably Anne Gilbert and Anssi Paasi, and applies the theoretical framework to three North American case studies in what can be classified as ad hoc rural initiatives in contested landscapes, initiated by local or grassroots actors to foster a specific conceptualization of region. While specific programming varies for different groups, rural regionalism addressed the balance between and interconnections of landscape and land use change, social networks, economic viability, and impacts of global industry. Central to the case studies are actors' efforts to create a regional identity, including forming institutions, defining regional boundaries, and identifying social/symbolic shapes for the region. The research discusses the importance of viewing regionalization through the lens of agency.     

The Impact of Migration on Poverty Concentrations in the United States, 1995–2000

Poverty is frequently conceptualized as an attribute of either people or places. Yet residential movement of poor people can redistribute poverty across places, affecting and reshaping the spatial concentration of economic disadvantage. In this article, we utilize 1995 to 2000 county‐to‐county migration data from the 2000 United States decennial census to explore how differential migration rates of the poor and nonpoor affect local incidence of poverty, and how migration reconfigures poverty rates across metropolitan, micropolitan, and noncore counties. We further examine the impact of differential migration rates on African American and Latino poverty rates, two groups that have experienced higher than average poverty rates and have a sizable presence in rural areas. Our analysis indicates that during the 1990s the poor moved at rates equal to or greater than the nonpoor, and that, especially in micropolitan counties, this movement tended to deepen existing poverty concentrations. Both African American and Latino migration patterns tended to reinforce existing poverty concentrations, a result similar to that of the population as a whole, although the migration patterns of both groups more severely exacerbated poverty in high‐poverty noncore counties.     

The Continuing Incidence of Natural Decrease in American Counties

In 2002, more American counties (985) experienced natural decrease than at any time in the nation's history. The incidence of natural decrease has diminished since then, but remains near record levels. It is most common in rural areas remote from metropolitan centers. Spatial concentrations exist in the Great Plains, Corn Belt, and East Texas, with scattered pockets in the Ozark‐Ouachita Uplands, Upper Great Lakes, and Florida. A multivariate spatial‐error regression model demonstrates that natural decrease is a consequence of the complex interaction between fertility, mortality, and migration over a protracted period and is symptomatic of fundamental changes in the demographic structure of an area. Age‐structure changes resulting from protracted, age‐specific migration are a primary cause of natural decrease. Temporal variations in fertility also have a significant impact, but counties experiencing natural decrease do not have fertility levels below the national average.     

Population Redistribution Trends in Nonmetropolitan America, 2010 to 2021☆

Given the turbulent conditions of the early 21st century and the release of data from the 2020 Census, it is an appropriate time to examine contemporary population redistribution trends in nonmetropolitan America. Analysis centers on the major demographic components of population change: migration; and natural increase. The analysis demonstrates that the turbulent economic, social, and now epidemiological conditions of recent years altered traditional demographic trends in nonmetropolitan America. For the first time in history, nonmetropolitan America lost population between 2010 and 2020 because of shifts in migration trends and diminishing natural increase. In contrast, post-censal population estimates suggest that nonmetropolitan population gains exceeded those in metropolitan areas for the first time in 50 years between 2020 and 2021. The recent widespread nonmetropolitan population increases are the result of substantial net migration gains that offset the growing natural decrease fostered by COVID-19. Sustained net migration gains in nonmetro areas provides a demographic lifeline to many counties that would otherwise face depopulation because of accelerating natural decrease. Whether these migration patterns can be sustained remains to be seen.     

Recent trends in rural development and their conceptualisation

The reversal of rural-urban traditional migration patterns in the last 20 years and the diffusion of non-agricultural activities in rural areas indicate that recent trends in rural development have not followed expected patterns. The paper retraces these recent changes, using as examples the case of France and Italy, two countries with quite different patterns of economic and social development. It follows the characteristics of the real processes under way on the one hand and the conceptualisations and categories used to understand them on the other. The paper concludes that recent trends require a thorough theoretical revision of the traditional assumptions in the social sciences. It suggests that the rural-urban criteria of spatial differentiation is losing significance while the regional or local economy approach provides a more useful framework, to explore the relevant criteria for differentiating rural development.     

Socioeconomic Performance in Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Areas during the 1980s

The socioeconomic gap between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas increased during the 1980s. We test three competing explanations for this trend during the 1980s: overdependence on manufacturing, especially in nonmetro labor markets, the emergence of producer services as a catalyst of socioeconomic growth, and federal spending. Using a model that is informed by a variety of perspectives in sociology and economic geography, and commuter zones (CZs) as spatial units of analysis, we estimate the effects of manufacturing concentration, producer service concentration, and federal spending on per capita income, per capita earnings, and private nonfarm employment growth during the 1983–1988 business cycle recovery. The OLS and interaction models show that all three factors help explain why metro areas outperformed nonmetro areas during this time period. The effects of producer service concentration, however, best fit with our expectations. Implications of our findings are discussed.     

Movement patterns and the medium-sized city. Tenants on the move in Gweru,Zimbabwe

During 1965-79, urban growth rates accelerated and continued after Zimbabwe's independence in 1980. For 1960-80, the estimated urban growth rate was 5.6% as compared with the natural growth rate of 3.5% and urban growth rate of 5.0% to 8.1% for the period 1982-92. Gweru, Zimbabwe, had a population of 110,000 in 1990, and as the provincial capital it is an important destination for rural and interurban migrants. Between 1982 and 1990 there was a 4.9% growth rate, resulting in the municipal waiting list for housing to exceed 14,000 in mid-1990. In a large study on migration and rental shelter, 188 tenants were interviewed in high, low-medium density, and periurban areas of the city with the intent of tracing respondents and the nature of migration streams. Regarding origins and connections, only one-fifth of the migrants were born in Gweru, more than half were born in rural areas, and the rest in other urban areas. More than 90% still had rural homes. Two-thirds made rural home visits six times or less a year and one-fourth visited seven times a year to once a month. 40% of the migrants to Gweru originated in larger cities, 24% in smaller urban areas, and 36% in rural areas. 58% moved to high density areas, 34% to low-medium, and 8% to peri-urban areas. The dominant motive was the search for employment and direct transfers, thus economic factors dominated over social factors. Three groups were distinguished according to length of stay: 1) 5 years or less who lived mainly in high and low-medium density housing; 2) 6-15 years; and 3) more than 15 years who lived in low density and high density areas. Regarding the previous two migrations, two-thirds stayed at the previous place for 5 years of less. The reasons for migration were overcrowding, family, and employment. Within Gweru high mobility was typical: one-third initiated one step, 43% initiated two steps, and 27% initiated three steps. Lodgers were the most mobile since one-third were moving three times.     

In-migration, entrepreneurship and rural–urban interdependencies: The case of East Cleveland, North East England

In-migration is a key influence in the process of rural economic development in England, Continental Europe and the US. New arrivals are often viewed in the literature as contributors in new venture creation, as well as catalysts in enhancing rural–urban interdependencies in the countryside. This paper sets out to explore the validity of this view in the case of East Cleveland: a rural area with a tradition of mining and industry, occupying the coastal fringe of the Tees Valley city-region. In doing so, the paper compares this locality with other parts of rural England in order to draw some wider conclusions. Particular emphasis is placed on comparisons with Cumbria, where comparable data are available. The paper argues that the impact of in-migration on the conditions of supply of entrepreneurship is cumulative rather than transformational. This means that it is particularly profound in localities with strong opportunity nexus, reinforcing favourable demand side conditions. However, the ability of in-migrant entrepreneurs to influence rural–urban interdependencies in areas with weak opportunity nexus (such as East Cleveland) is modest.     

Bending the urban flow: a construction-migration strategy

The excess rate of migration to urban centers is a problem affecting over 50 developing countries and 18 developed ones (68% of the world's population). Policies that rely on compulsion or disincentives have mostly failed because they do not deal with the cause of the problem. This paper proposes a strategy of increasing or decreasing the rate of housing construction in different urban areas as a means of stimulating or reducing migration to those areas; in most developing areas priority is given to residential construction in already congested metropolitan areas. 5 assumptions are the basis for this approach: 1) migrants tend to gravitate to the most powerful growth poles; 2) residential construction is a leading sector of regional and urban economies; 3) the encouragement of construction activity will make itself felt indirectly via its effect on construction-related employment; 4) rates of residential construction may be manipulated through government policy affecting the cost of materials, availability of loans, level of unionization, and price of housing; and 5) residential construction is amenable to quick policy action. The central idea of the strategy is that an increase in residential construction will exercise a pull on migrants, increasing job opportunities, raising incomes, lowering housing costs, and improving the chances of home ownership. This idea has been verified by various projects in Hong Kong, Ghana, Venezuela, Brazil, Bahrain, Mexico, Colombia, Poland, USSR, and the UK. In Bahrain low-income housing programs have been used to relocate Bahraini nationals in new outlying suburbs and to promote population growth in rural villages. In Mexico self-help and low-income housing programs have helped to redirect migrants headed for small towns toward smaller communities. There is also evidence to show that building construction has the potential to expand and contribute to economic growth. Some problems of implementation might be finding an adequate economic base, the need to place new communities close to primate cities, the use of large portions of the national budget, and profit-maximizing plans have been detrimental to the speed and development of construction migration. Some benefits for smaller urban areas of construction migrants in developing countries are: 1) emphasis on the development of a labor-intensive industry, 2) little training of workers as needed, 3) it can provide the housing required by industries planning to move to smaller areas, 4) this housing will be cheaper, and 5) incentives will exist to save and invest in the smaller areas.