Aboriginal population prospects

Data from the 1991 Census largely confirm earlier projections of the size and structure of the Aboriginal population, although the data for Torres Strait Islanders are markedly inconsistent with previous counts. The 1986 and 1991 Censuses mark the first intercensal period for decades for which Aboriginal population counts have been consistent. This provides an opportunity, taken in this paper, to examine closely the discrepancies between projections and the 1991 Census and to comment on ways in which determinants of Aboriginal population change are diverging from the parameters used for previous projections. We pay particular attention to mortality prospects, because of the occurrence in the 1991 Census of a higher than expected sex ratio and differences between projections and counts for certain age groups. We note the evidence for under-enumeration of the Aboriginal population in particular age groups in the 1991 Census as in previous censuses, and estimate the size of adjustments necessary to correct for some, but not all, of these deficiencies. The analysis shows that Aboriginal fertility increased in the second half of the 1980s.     

The Effectiveness of Immigration Policies

This article elaborates a conceptual framework for assessing the character and effectiveness of immigration policies. It argues that, to a considerable extent, the public and academic controversy concerning this issue is spurious because of fuzzy definitions of policy effectiveness, stemming from confusion between (1) policy discourses, (2) policies on paper, (3) policy implementation, and (4) policy impacts. The article distinguishes three policy gaps: the discrepancy between public discourses and policies on paper (discursive gap); the disparity between policies on paper and implemented policies (implementation gap); and the extent to which implemented policies affect migration (efficacy gap). Although implemented policies seem to be the correct yardstick to assess policy effectiveness, in practice the (generally more pronounced) discourses are often used as a benchmark. This can lead to an overestimation of policy failure. Existing empirical studies suggest that policies significantly affect the targeted migration flows, but they crucially fail to assess the relative importance of policies in comparison to other migration determinants, including non‐migration policies, as well as the hypothetical occurrence of unintended categorical, spatial, inter‐temporal, and reverse flow “substitution” effects. Evidence on such effects is still scarce, showing the need for more empirically informed insights about the short‐ and long‐term effects of migration policies.     

Revising the Harris-Todaro framework to model labour migration from the Canadian Northern frontier

The Harris-Todaro model of labour migration was developed almost four decades ago, and since has become a classic method of migration analysis in less developed countries. This paper explores the applicability of the Harris-Todaro (HT) framework outside its traditional use, by modelling frontier-metropolis migration in Canada. If appropriate, the framework can potentially be used in other countries with similar regional dichotomies, such as Russia and Australia. The paper argues that the HT model is generally applicable in the context of migration from the resource frontier to large metropolitan areas of the Canadian south, although it requires several modifications. The classic HT model is extended to account for northern labour-force heterogeneity (Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal), the possibility of having or losing jobs in the declining and undiversified frontier economy, and living cost differentials. Further analysis is focused on Aboriginal migration from isolated northern communities. The plausibility of the modified HT model is demonstrated using an empirical test, in which the model is used to assess migration probabilities of Aboriginal labour migrants. These new insights into the mechanisms of frontier-metropolis migration could provide a better basis for developing planning strategies, aimed to sustain human capital in the Canadian North, and for optimizing welfare policies both in the North and in the South.     

The estimation of small town aboriginal population change

In forecasting the effects of large-scale development projects on small town communities there is a need to consider the Aboriginal component of the population separately, not least to ensure the success of government policies regarding social welfare and Aboriginal advancement. This paper outlines some of the methodological and conceptual issues associated with the estimation of Aboriginal population change in the rapidly growing town of Katherine, in the Northern Territory, and reports on selected social and economic impacts of recent in-migration. Attention is drawn to the inappropriateness ofde facto population figures as a basis for planning and the need to estimate service requirements in the context of high population mobility.     

Climigration? Population and climate change in Arctic Alaska

Residents of towns and villages in Arctic Alaska live on “the front line of climate change.” Some communities face immediate threats from erosion and flooding associated with thawing permafrost, increasing river flows, and reduced sea ice protection of shorelines. The term climigration, referring to migration caused by climate change, originally was coined for these places. Although initial applications emphasized the need for government relocation policies, it has elsewhere been applied more broadly to encompass unplanned migration as well. Some historical movements have been attributed to climate change, but closer study tends to find multiple causes, making it difficult to quantify the climate contribution. Clearer attribution might come from comparisons of migration rates among places that are similar in most respects, apart from known climatic impacts. We apply this approach using annual 1990–2014 time series on 43 Arctic Alaska towns and villages. Within-community time plots show no indication of enhanced out-migration from the most at-risk communities. More formally, there is no significant difference between net migration rates of at-risk and other places, testing several alternative classifications. Although climigration is not detectable to date, growing risks make either planned or unplanned movements unavoidable in the near future.     

Demographic implications of aboriginal out-marriage

Unpublished 1991 Census data show that more than half of Aboriginal marriages involve a non-Aboriginal spouse and that 83 per cent of resultant children identify as Aboriginal. Out-marriage is therefore a major but so far overlooked influence on Aboriginal population growth and regional differences in out-marriage rates are a major cause of higher Aboriginal population growth in cities. High and rising rates of out-marriage have overtaken rising levels of Aboriginal self-identification in importance and imply that the Aboriginal population is destined to continue growing rapidly. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Employment, Education and Training.     

Aboriginal fertility: Trends and prospects

Estimates of Aboriginal fertility compiled from an analysis of 1981 and 1986 Census data on children ever borne by Aboriginal women reveal age-specific fertility rates slightly higher than those of other Australian women at ages above 25, but very much higher rates for younger women. The result is a total fertility ratio more than 50 per cent higher than in the total Australian population, with no more than slight variation between States and Territories. A differential analysis using standardized indices shows considerable differences in levels of fertility of categories of young Aboriginal women classified by education, labour force status and income, and also differences between urban and rural areas. Analysis of prospects for Aboriginal fertility levels confirms the likelihood of continuation in the downward drift in levels of fertility that has been established during the past decade. Comparison of the estimates with another recent set of estimates obtained using the own-children method shows broad conformity in levels of total fertility ratios over time, except in the most recent period, the mid-1980s. Nevertheless, the own-children estimates distort the recent trend and also the age distribution of Aboriginal fertility.     

Measuring Interprovincial Flows of Human Capital in China: 1995–2000

This study measures the consequences of interprovincial migration in China in terms of the flows of human beings and the flows of human capital using two micro datasets. First, this study uses a household income survey dataset to estimate the earning returns to education as one of the two measurements of human capital. Then, the micro-dataset of the 2000 Chinese Census is used to calculate the flows of human capital among provinces by using the results from the estimation of human capital. The flows of human capital are then compared to the flows of human beings to see whether they go in the same directions and to the same extent. The results indicate that although in most of the cases, the flows of human beings and the flows of human capital are in the same directions, there are some cases that a province experienced a loss in human beings but a net gain in human capital, or vice versa. Second, some provinces are more adversely affected by the flows of human capital than others, which may not be seen by merely examining the flows of human beings. Third, non-hukou migration is different from hukou migration in volume, in scope of both gains and losses of human beings and human capital, and in directions for some provinces. Finally, we can conclude that measuring the flows of human capital is a useful way to observe how migration affects the potential of regional distribution of development.

Inferring Directional Migration Propensities from the Migration Propensities of Infants in the United States

Beginning with the 2010 decennial census, the U.S. Census Bureau plans to drop its long-form questionnaire and to replace it with the American Community Survey (ACS). The resulting absence of the larger sample provided by the census count will complicate the measurement and analysis of internal migration flows. In addition, the strategy of averaging accumulated samples over time will mix changing migration patterns. The migration question will refer to a one-year time interval instead of the five-year interval used in the censuses between 1960 and 2000, complicating historical comparisons and the production of multiregional projections based on five-year age groups. Consequently, students of territorial mobility increasingly will find it necessary to complement or augment possibly inadequate data collected on migration with estimates obtained by means of “indirect estimation.” A method is presented that allows one to infer age-specific directional migration propensities at the regional level from birthplace-specific infant population data, which approximates infant migration propensities, and from these infers the migration propensities of all other ages. The method is applied to at the nine-division spatial scale.     

The Gravity of High-Skilled Migration Policies

Combining unique, annual, bilateral data on labor flows of highly skilled immigrants for 10 OECD destinations between 2000 and 2012, with new databases comprising both unilateral and bilateral policy instruments, we present the first judicious cross-country assessment of policies aimed to attract and select high-skilled workers. Points-based systems are much more effective in attracting and selecting high-skilled migrants than requiring a job offer, labor market tests, and shortage lists. Offers of permanent residency, while attracting the highly skilled, overall reduce the human capital content of labor flows because they prove more attractive to non-high-skilled workers. Bilateral recognition of diploma and social security agreements foster greater flows of high-skilled workers and improve the skill selectivity of immigrant flows. Conversely, double taxation agreements deter high-skilled migrants, although they do not alter overall skill selectivity. Our results are robust to a variety of empirical specifications that account for destination-specific amenities, multilateral resistance to migration, and the endogeneity of immigration policies.     

Aboriginal migration to the cities

Aboriginal migration to the cities is frequently assumed to be adding to the population of urban Aborigines. An analysis of actual patterns of Aboriginal migration to the large Australian cities (major urban areas), using data from the 1981 and 1986 Australian Censuses, shows that the major urban areas of New South Wales and Victoria were actually losing Aboriginal population through net migration throughout the period 1976 to 1986. At both inter-State level and country-to-city lev/el, any Aboriginal migration flow in one direction tends to be almost cancelled out by a flow of similar size in the opposite direction. However, there are definite age-specific patterns. In particular, there is movement of young single adults to the cities, often counterbalanced by migration of somewhat older adults with their children to the country. Aboriginal migrants have higher levels of labour-force participation than equivalent categories of non-migrants.     

[The mechanism and policy of the new stage of labor force migration in rural areas].]

The dynamics of rural labor migration in various countries are explored, with emphasis on the policies required to control such migration flows. The economic structure and conditions of rural and non-rural regions and their effect on migration are described. Factors affecting the decision to migrate are also examined. Data are from published U.N. sources.     

When nature rebels: international migration, climate change, and inequality

We study climate change and international migration in a two-country overlapping generations model with endogenous climate change. Our main findings are that climate change increases migration; small impacts of climate change have significant impacts on the number of migrants; a laxer immigration policy increases long-run migration, aggravates climate change, and increases north–south inequality if climate change impacts are not too small; and a greener technology reduces emissions, long-run migration, and inequality if the migrants’ impact to overall climate change is large. The preference over the policies depends on whether the policy maker targets inequality, wealth, the environment, or the number of migrants.     

Political instability and illegal immigration

Economic theory suggests that transnational migration results from the push-pull effect of wage differentials between host and source countries. In this paper, we argue that political instability exacerbates the migration flow, with greater instability leading to relatively larger flows. We conclude then that an optimal solution to the illegal immigration problem requires proper coordination of immigration and foreign policies by the host country. A narrow preoccupation with tougher immigration laws is wasteful and may be marginally effective.The authors wish to acknowledge an anonymous referee for very helpful comments and suggestions. The research of Donald Lien is, in part, supported by a grant from The University of Kansas, GRF 3281-XX 0038.     

Completeness of India's sample registration system: an assessment using the general growth balance method

In the preceding issue of this journal, a generalized version of the Brass growth balance method was proposed that made it applicable to populations that are not stable and are open to migration. In this companion paper, the results of applying this new procedure to data from India's Sample Registration system for the decades 1971-80 and 1981-90 are discussed. The results at the national level show that, during the decade 1981-90, 5 percent of the deaths among men, 12 percent of the deaths among women, and about 7 percent of births were being missed by the system. Further, it is estimated that the level of under-enumeration in the 1991 Census was more than that of the 1981 Census by 0.7 percent for males and 1.4 percent for females. The paper also presents results for major Indian states.     

Remittances and the income distribution in Tonga

Receipt of remittances from migrants decreased the inequality of income in Tonga. Policies that attempt to affect migration or remittance flows, such as policies to improve the administration and collection of taxes, should take into account any undesirable effects on the distribution of income.     

Breastfeeding rates of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women in Australia: a systematic review and narrative analysis

BackgroundAustralian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (referred to hereafter as Aboriginal) women breastfeed at lower rates than non-Aboriginal women, and rates vary across and within Aboriginal populations.AimTo determine rates of breastfeeding initiation and maintenance and compare individually collected survey data with existing routinely collected state and national breastfeeding data for Aboriginal women.MethodsCINAHL, Medline, EMBASE, SCOPUS, PsycINFO, and the Cochrane library were searched for peer-reviewed literature published between 1995 and 2021. Quantitative studies written in English and reporting breastfeeding for Aboriginal women or women having an Aboriginal infant were included. Screening and quality assessment included co-screening 10% of papers. Two reviewers completed data extraction. A proportional meta-analysis was undertaken for breastfeeding initiation and narrative data synthesis used to summarise breastfeeding maintenance.FindingsThe initial search identified 12,091 records, with 31 full text studies retrieved, and 27 reports from 22 studies met inclusion criteria. Breastfeeding initiation was 78% (95% CI 0.71, 0.84), however, rates were lower than non-Aboriginal women. Maintenance ranged between one week and five years. Rates and definitions varied significantly between studies, with inconsistencies in government collection and reporting of breastfeeding.ConclusionSignificant variation in definitions and reporting make comparisons difficult. Breastfeeding rates were below recommended targets. Future pattern and trend analyses require standardised measures and definitions. Current collection and reporting of breastfeeding data, particularly routinely collected state-based data, is inadequate to present an accurate picture of current breastfeeding in Australia for Aboriginal women and infants, and to effectively inform interventions and policies.     

Cultural barriers in migration between OECD countries

This paper uses a unique set of new indicators enabling us to test the effects of cultural barriers on migration between OECD countries. Using data on migration flows between 22 OECD countries over the period 1990–2003, we find strong evidence for the negative effect of cultural differences on international migration flows. Cultural barriers do a much better job in explaining the pattern of migration flows between developed countries than traditional economic variables such as income and unemployment differentials.     

Consistent correction of data for aboriginal populations

A consistent correction procedure is used to determine improved, consistent estimates by sex of census age distributions, intercensal births, intercensal deaths and net migration by age for the Aboriginal populations of the Northern Territory, South Australia and Western Australia during the period 1986–91. Undercount estimates and life tables show the Aboriginal populations to have lower coverage in statistical collections and much higher death risks than the total Australian population. Inter-regional net migration estimates show that component of change can no longer be ignored.     

Understanding the 1996 census migration data

The Australian Census provides two approaches to measuring migration: indicators which distinguish movers from non-movers, and a geographic classification which identifies each person’s usual residence on census night, and their usual address one year and five years previously. Although these data represent a rich source of information, they contain several traps for the unwary. We show that differences in the variables and classifications used can result in marked variations in the apparent intensity and patterns of migration. The questionnaire and processing methodology used in the 1996 Census also resulted in a number of inconsistencies between the migration indicators and the usual address information. We examine the magnitude and source of these anomalies, assess their implications and propose a partial solution. The views expressed in this paper are personal and do not necessarily reflect those of the Australian Bureau of Statistics.