Quantitative Analysis on the Impact of Urbanisation on Chinese Population Aging

This paper systematically studies the impact of fertility, mortality, initial age structure and rural-urban migration on population aging in rural and urban China from 2000 to 2010. The results show that urbanisation plays a crucial role in population aging in both rural and urban areas and its inf luence is closely linked to the age pattern of the migrants. One third of young rural population transformed into urban population during that period. The contribution of rural-urban migration to population aging in rural areas is 43.4 percent, which is higher than any inf luences from population’s natural changes, and is dominant in population aging in the countryside. Rural-urban migration contributes-118.0 percent to population aging in urban areas by reducing the proportion of aged population and its influence was only lower than that of the initial age structure. The impact of urbanisation on population aging in towns is relatively limited. Among factors from population’s natural changes, the inf luence of the initial age structure is higher than those from changes of mortality and fertility. The paper discusses the causes and developmental trends of impact of urbanisation on population aging between rural and urban areas, and addresses some policy recommendations to deal with socio-economic challenges.     

Distribution of Flowing Population in China

Ever since the implementation of Economic Reform Policy in late 1970s, the pattern of Chinese population migration is based on the migrants from rural areas or economically undeveloped areas to economically developed areas.     

An Empirical Study on the Laddering Migration of China’s Floating Population

Using data collected by Center for Population and Development Studies of Renmin University of China in 2009 in Chaoyang district of Beijing, Dongguan city of Guangdong province and Zhuji city of Zhejiang province, this paper does an empirical study on the laddering migration of China’s floating population. The findings indicate that floating population’s geographical laddering migration, occupational laddering migration and family laddering migration exist in the process of migration. Geographical laddering migration is influenced by demographic characteristics, migration experience and pathfinder effect of parents. Occupational laddering migration is influenced by migration experience, stability of occupation and social interaction with local residents in destination. Family laddering migration is influenced by family member’s characteristics, area of arable land, migration experience and the number of relatives in destination.     

Empirical Analysis on Impacts of Migration with and without Hukou Change on China's Provincial Economy

Based on the preliminary investigation of spatial and temporal patterns of migration with and without hukou (i.e.,the household registration system ) change and drawing on panel data in the past ten years,this paper uses random coefficient models to examine the impacts of migration on provincial economy growth in China.Analytical results show that:(a) migrations with hukou change across regions have been relatively stable,while migration without hukou change has increased rapidly and continuously since2000with extreme disparities across provinces;(b) the migration and mobility of the population is a Pareto improvement for China’s overall economy;(c)hukou in developed areas plays a role as the hourglass;(d) for most central provinces and some western provinces with large-size of outmigration, the negative impact of the loss of human capital due to large-scale out-migration on local economy began to come out;although outmigration has in general a positive mi pact,its contribution to local economic development is not as obvious as we expected.     

Literature Review on Population and Childbirth Research in China in 2006

In China, the total fertility rate has remained at a low level since the 1990s. The evaluation, causes and impacts of this low fertility rate is an important research area. In 2006, research on population and childbirth behaviour in China concentrated on estimation of the current fertility rate and on future family planning policies; attention was also given to a new childbirth culture.     

Dynamics of Nonagricultural Transfer of Rural Labour Force in China

since the reform and opening to the outside world there has been a rapid and continuing growth of nonagricultural transfer of rural labor force in China. The existing studies on this issue are largely confined to migration or regional transfer of rural labor force. Meantime, because of the limitations of available data, there are few studies with time-series analysis. In this article, following the definition of non-agricultural transfer of rural labour force. estimation is made of the amount and its time-series changes of non-agricultural transfer of rural labour force by using data derived from common primary statistics through simple calculations, with analysis of the dynamics of non-agricultural transfer of rural labour force in the context of China＇s economic development and policy changes.     

The Comparative Study of Function Zoning of Population Development and Major Function-Oriented Zoning

The population has dual properties of production and consumption, so population changes and economic growth are closely related. The paper mainly studies the trend of economic growth since China＇ s reform and opening up;     

Fertility Transition in China:A Zigzag and Splendid Course

Examining China’s population changes in the past three decades demonstrates that China’s demographic transition has been successfully completed with a splendid and zigzag path.There are profound historical experiences and lessons.This paper reviews China’s fertility transition which is divided into four periods and argues that fertility changes are a result of the interactions between socioeconomic development,fertility behaviors and fertility policies.Substantial resistance to the "one-childpolicy" during 1979 to 1984 resulted in rebounding and fluctuating fertility.The baby boom occurred in the period 1985 to 1991 was a manifestation of the inherent laws of demographic dynamics,and subsequently forceful birth control was again mobilized.The period from 1992 to 1999 witnessed large declines in fertility which penetrates the replacement zone,showing that China was completing the fertility transition.China’s stabilizing low fertility and emerging population structural issues since 2000 call for comprehensive ways in addressing the population problems.     

On Incorporating China’s Time Bank for Old-Age Service

Based on domestic and international researches, this paper points out time banking will enable the nation to accelerate the nation’s social service for elder people. Its pattern of service exchange suits China’s low-cost strategy of dealing with the population aging; It is also in accordance with our attempt of multi-level old-age service system; And it is in favor of our construction of spiritual civilization. Hence, it is necessary for the state government to provide the related policies, to promote the system construction from high level to low level, and to finally realize the whole country’s system framework and the mutual information exchange.     

A Comparative Analysis of the Fertility of the Urban and Rural in China Since 2000

The different in the fertility of the rural and urban and future changing trend are very important questions to understand China’s population problem. This paper calculates the fertility of the urban and the rural since 2000 based on the statistical data and compares the fertility rate in the urban and the rural population since 2000. The finding shows that the TFR in the rural is less than 1.8 while the TFR in the urban is less than 1.3 and the difference is narrowing year by year. The fertility difference is mainly caused by the second child, generally speaking the second child fertility tend to increasing slightly while the first child fertility shows dramatic fluctuations because of the Chinese folk culture, the fertility fluctuation in the rural is much dramatic than that in the urban. The mean age at childbearing (MAC) has been delaying in both the rural and the urban areas in the decade.     

The Generality and Particularity of Labor Migration in China

Labor migration among regions and between the urban-rural has been a popular research topic in labor economics,development economics, industrial economics and regional economics.The world economy development history proves that such labor migration is inevitable economic phenomenon in the process of economic development.However,there are some keys to better understand China’s labor migration,such as what are the characteristics of China’s labor migration? What differences are there in China’s labor migration compared with that of the development countries and other developing countries? What are the connotational and theoretical implications of China’s labor migration? These are the core questions of this paper.Understanding these questions will patch up the shortages in the existing researches of the field,lay solid foundation and provide valuable reference for the economic effects, the welfare effects of China’s labor migration and associated institutional arrangements and macroeconomic policies.     

National Floating Population Reached 200 Million,Equalization of Family Planning Public Services in 49 Pilot Cities

The main characters of today’s floating population have changed. Following the progress of urbanization,China is experiencing the greatest migration of floating population in history. By 2010,the floating population had reached 221 million,and the Post- 80s generation became the majority.How to promote social integration for the floating population turned to be an issue needed to be considered. On 28 Februaryist March,National Population and Family Planning Commission held the meeting of"strengthening and innovating in service ma-     

The Major Deviations of Urbanization in China

Urbanization is a major strategic issue in China’s economic transformation. This paper argues that China should coordinate the development of urbanization, industrialization,agricultural modernization,and informationalization,based on analysis of the five major deviations in the process of China’s urbanization.In order to advance the sustainable development of urbanization in China,following measures need to be taken by the government:balancing the development of large,medium-sized and small cities and towns,reforming the government’s fiscal and tax system,encouraging migrant workers and their families to work and live at local cities and towns,providing citizenship to migrant workers,and avoiding the inter-cities cutthroat competition on GDP.     

Urbanization Transition in China:From a Factor-driven to an Innovation--driven Approach

Cheap land and cheap labor have made the most important contribution to the rapid development of China’s urbanization during the past 30 years.However,this pattern of urbanization, which is factor-driven, dependent on land bonus and demographic dividend, is unsustainable.Excessive dependence on cheap land not only leads to inefficient allocation of urban resources, but also has negative impacts on the process of urbanization.Heavy reliance on demographic dividend would no longer be sustainable in the context of changing population structure.There is a need for urbanization reorientation, from a factor--driven to an innovation--driven approach.Innovation--driven urbanization requires industrial upgrading in urban areas so that new industrialization and new urbanization could be in synchronous progress.Smart city construction would facilitate integration of urbanization,industrialization and informatization.     

The Change and Trend of Population Momentum in China since 60 Years

This paper calculates total population momentum,urban and rural population momentum and agespecific population momentum in China since 60 years.The main findings and conclusions are as follows:Firstly,the power of population momentum of the positive growth is disappearing rapidly;Secondly,the cities are in the turning point of population momentum from positive to the negative growth while China’ s population growth was wholly attributable to momentum in the rural areas;Thirdly,China’ s population momentum of positive growth mainly is due to substantial growth of the old.     

Report of Survey on Family Happiness in China

The process and characteristics of China’s population change are unique in the world. In the past 60 years,China has not only experienced the peaks and busts of the size o births, but also the radical fluctuation of the total number of deaths, and large population migration and movement Especially in the last 30 years after     

Major Challenges for China＇s Floating Population and Policy Suggestions： An Analysis of the 2010 Population Census Data

This study analyzes the trends and current characteristics of floating population in China and the major challenges they arc facing, on the basis of the latest population census data. The research shows that the size of floating population has increased continuously and rapidly, their mobility intensity is weakening, migration destinations are beginning to decentralize, majority of the migrants are moving with their spouses and more and more of them are taking their young children with them, the new-generation floaters whom wereborn after 1980 account for more than half of the entire floating population. The floaters are facing challenges such as unemployment, lack of social security, inequality in children＇s education, and barriers in social integration. This article proposes corresponding suggestions. The problem of new-generation floaters and floating children should be addressed adequately, and there is an urgent need to accelerate the establishment of social security for migrants.     

An Analysis of Labor Transfer Fluctuation in China: An Empirical Study Based on A RBC Model

A RBC model is built to study labor transfer fluctuation in China. Then an empirical study of labor transfer between 1978 and 2009 is conducted mainly to explore the impacts of technology shocks on the labor transfer in China. The study has several main findings. Firstly China’s labor transfer has obvious cyclical fluctuation, and it is pro-cyclical with output. Secondly with the improved RBC model, the variance of China’s cyclical fluctuation can be mainly explained by technology shocks, and especially over half of fluctuation of labor transfer can be explained by it. Thirdly technology shocks have a positive effect on outputs, consumptions, investments and labor transfer, but it has a negative effect on the employment.     

Market Access and the Border Effect of China’s Labor Migration

This paper introduces a new economy geography index,market access, to analyze the dynamic mechanism of labor migration in China based on the sample data from China’s labor cross-region flow 1998 ～ 2008.The empirical test prove the reversed U-shape of "Market access -Wage - Migration" and finds that market access in early period of China’s reform increased labor migration significantly from peripheral zone to the central area which caused China’s core-peripheral competition landscape.However with the appearance of"Lewis turning point"and disappearance of demographic dividend,the M-W-M mechanism tends to weaken.The calculation shows that the estimated value of hidden barriers against labor migration, i.e.border effect, is 3.94,and the values of border effects boast of a ladder-type rising trend from the east to the west in China.The labor market in the central area is relatively open while more isolated in peripheral zone.To change China’s center-periphery pattern into more balanced development among regions and to maintain the competitiveness of China’s industrial production,it is important for government to have proper policies to maintain free market and ensure efficient allocation of production factors.     

The Impacts of Rural Labor Migration on China’s Economy and Regional Disparities

This study constructed Computable General Equi-librium(CGE) model of four-regions and six-departments to analyze the impacts of rural labor migration on economic growth and regional disparities in China, based on 2000 and 2007 China’s Regional Input-Output Tables. The results showed that it had made China’s GDP respectively grow from 1.054% in 2000 to 5.565% in 2007.The impacts had the most obvious effects on the eastern region’s economic growth, the largest growth rate on the central region’s economic growth, and a negative-to-positive transformation on the western region’s economic growth. Compared with rural labor migration within regions, it widened gap among regions in 2007,making the disparities of eastern-central, eastern-western and central-western respectively grow by 5.738%,6.668% and 12.627%. These disparities were much higher than those in 2000.Meanwhile the migration led value added in nonagricultural sectors to increase and added value in agricultural sector to decrease. Also it left the greater impact on the service sector of the central region and greatest impact on the heavy industrial sectors of the western region.