An Application of Bayesian Methods to Small Area Poverty Rate Estimates

Efforts to estimate various sociodemographic variables in small geographic areas are proving difficult with the replacement of the Census long-form with the American Community Survey (ACS). Researchers interested in subnational demographic processes have previously relied on Census 2000 long-form data products in order to answer research questions. ACS data products promise to begin providing up-to-date profiles of the nation’s population and economy; however, unit- and item-level nonresponse in the ACS have left researchers with gaps in subnational coverage resulting in unstable and unreliable estimates for basic demographic measures. Borrowing information from neighboring areas and across time with a spatiotemporal smoothing process based on Bayesian statistical methods, it is possible to generate more stable and accurate estimates of rates for geographic areas not represented in the ACS. This research evaluates this spatiotemporal smoothing process in its ability to derive estimates of poverty rates at the county level for the contiguous United States. These estimates are then compared to more traditional estimates produced by the US Census Bureau, and comparisons between the two methods of estimation are carried out to evaluate the practical application of this smoothing method. Our findings suggest that by using available data from the ACS only, we are able to recreate temporal and spatial patterns of poverty in US counties even in years where data are sparse. Results show that the Bayesian methodology strongly agrees with the estimates produced by the SAIPE program, even in years with little data. This methodology can be expanded to other demographic and socioeconomic data with ease.     

Measuring Child Poverty in Hong Kong: Sensitivity to the Choice of Equivalence Scale

In September 2013, the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region established Hong Kong’s first official poverty line. The new poverty line is used as a major yardstick in social welfare policy formulation and in the allocation of public resources aimed at combating poverty; despite its importance, however, its robustness has not been examined. Using data from the 2011 Population Census, we examined the robustness of the official poverty line in measuring child poverty in Hong Kong through assessing the sensitivity of child poverty measures to the choice of different equivalence scales. The results show that the child poverty profile in Hong Kong is generally not sensitive to the choice of equivalence scale and that the official poverty line correctly identifies those children who live in poverty. Rates of child poverty among boys and girls of different ages, with different family backgrounds and living in households with different compositions, were calculated and ranked using different equivalence scales; these rankings were found to be very similar to those yielded by the official poverty measure. Thus, the choice of adult equivalence scale does not favour any subgroup. We also examined the child poverty profile in Hong Kong based on the official poverty measure and with our 2011 census data. We found that the children in our sample were more likely than the adults to live in poverty household; that more than half of the children who lived in poverty belonged to working poor families; and that children living in public housing were particularly likely to suffer from severe poverty. In light of these findings, we urge the government to prioritise taking measures aimed at lifting children out of poverty.     

养老保险基金模式选择的人口学分析

从人口学角度看,养老保险基金的两种基本模式——现收现付制和基金制分别表现为时期平衡和队列平衡。退休者的生活消费均来源于在职职工创造的财富,因此,不仅现收现付制,而且基金制养老保险也体现了代际之间的再分配关系。人口老龄化、劳动力人口数量、人口素质和人口迁移是影响养老保险基金模式选择的主要人口因素。我们要综合考虑人口因素和经济因素来选择我国的养老保险基金模式。     

Measuring Child Poverty in South Africa: Sensitivity to the Choice of Equivalence Scale and an Updated Profile

This paper offers evidence on the sensitivity of child poverty in South Africa to changes in the adult equivalence scale (AES) and updates the child poverty profile based on the Income and Expenditure Survey 2005/06. Setting the poverty line at the 40th percentile of households calculated with different AESs the scope and composition of child poverty are found to be relatively insensitive to the scale used. The rankings of children of different ages, girls versus boys, racial groupings and children living in rural versus urban areas are unaffected by choice of AES, although some provincial rankings on the poverty headcount measure are. The proportions of children and households ‘correctly’ identified as poor for the full range of scales is extremely high. These findings support the argument that it may be appropriate for profiling poverty in South Africa to use a poverty line based on a per capita welfare measure. For the construction of the child poverty profile, per capita income is used as the welfare indicator with the poverty line set at the 40th percentile of household. The profile suggests that poverty amongst children is more extensive than amongst the population or adults even after the massive injection of transfers into households with poor children through the child support grant. The child poverty headcount, depth and severity are all highest amongst children age 0–4 and lowest amongst those aged 15–17, who are not yet beneficiaries of the grants. They are also highest amongst African and Coloured children. Large variations across provinces remain. The analysis underlines the importance of prioritising children in the fight against poverty, particularly in their earliest years.     

Children Living Without Their Fathers: Population Estimates and Indicators of Educational Well-being

This paper estimates the number of American children in grades K–12 who live without their biological fathers and examines the association of absent-father status with children’s well-being. The 2003 Parent and Family Involvement in Education Survey of the National Household Education Surveys Program (n = 12,426) shows that 28% percent of White students, 39% of Hispanic students, 69% of Black students, and 36% overall live without their fathers. In bivariate comparisons, absent-father status is associated with reduced well-being: worse health, lower academic achievement, worse educational experiences, and less parental involvement in school activities. When socio-economic factors are controlled, father-absence is associated with small deficits of well-being. The findings suggest that the conventional wisdom may exaggerate the detrimental effects of father absence.     

城市居民理想养老居住方式的选择--基于南京等四城市抽样调查的实证研究

本文基于一项在扬州、南京、镇江、泰州四城市进行的老年生活状况调查,描述了这四城市居民理想养老居住方式的选择情况,并且利用Logistic回归分析方法试图研究影响居民理想养老居住方式选择意愿的主要因素。得出的基本结论是:人们在年老时,其理想的居住方式受多方面因素的影响和制约,但基本上可以归结为三个方面:观念因素、经济因素和体制因素。其中观念因素主要体现在文化程度变量上,是影响居民选择意愿的最主要因素。经济因素和体制因素体现在个人月收入和职业变量上,体制因素比经济因素在影响居民的选择意愿方面起到更加重要的作用。     

Temporal and Spatial Evolution Models in Local Reform in Household Registration System and Their Implications

In the process of reform on China’s household registration system after 1978, local governments have gradually taken the role of the central government, becoming the main driving forces of the reform. They have shaped the new trend of the reform by adopting different policies for different households. Examining local reform practices is, therefore, important for further relevant reforms. By sorting a large amount of laws and regulations issued by local governments about the reform on household registration system, and highlighting four polices (namely, temporary residence certificate system, blue seal household register, reform on household registration system of towns, and talents residential certificate system), this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial evolutive trajectory and rules , from the perspective of diffusion, explores the proliferation laws, and provides policy implications.     

中国户籍制度改革地方实践的时空演进模式及其启示

改革开放之后的中国户籍制度改革历程中,地方政府逐步取代中央政府成为改革的积极推行者,因地制宜实施不同内容的户口政策成为户籍制度改革的新趋势。因此,对户籍改革地方实践的研究就显得尤为重要。文中借助于搜集到的大量地方户籍制度改革法规规章文件,选取暂住证制度、蓝印户口政策、小城镇户口改革、人才居住证制度这四项户口政策作为研究对象,对户籍制度改革的时空发展关系及改革内容的演进进行了分析,试图从政策扩散的视角分析其演化和扩散规律,最后得出了几点启示。     

Development of the India Patriarchy Index: Validation and Testing of Temporal and Spatial Patterning

Social Indicators Research - While existing indices of gender equality measure the role of women’s status and position, they inadequately contextualize the broader construct of patriarchy, a...     

西汉时期我国人口分布空间格局及其成因探讨

在数字化西汉地图的基础上,结合西汉人口数据,运用GIS软件完成西汉时期人口密度分布和分级图。得出西汉时期我国人口分布空间格局是人口多集中于黄河中下游地区,南方人口较稀少的结论。并在此基础上对其成因进行探讨,西汉时期人口分布的空间格局是在自然因素、政治因素和历史因素的共同作用下形成的。     

Spatial Pattern of Urban Livability in Himalayan Region: A Case of Aizawl City,India

Cities are increasingly expected to provide impetus to the growth and development of their surrounding areas as well as to compete for economic activity with other cities. However, cities in developing countries are characterised by spatial differentiation and segregation due to widening inequality which are detrimental for growth and development of cities and regions. Concern over inequality in urban areas raises moral and ethical issues and demands compensatory and remedial policies to alleviate poorer places. This requires recognition of areas of relative deprivation at smaller scale through proper research. The present study is an attempt to find out patterns of inequality in livability in Aizawl-a fast growing hill city in the Himalayan region of northeastern India. Using data reduction method, levels of objective and subjective dimensions of livability are measured at neighbourhood level. The study found out that centrally located neighbourhoods are more livable in comparison to their peripheral counterparts. The study also found out that objective and subjective dimensions of livability have no significant relationship.     

New Estimates and Projections of Population Growth in Pakistan

Pakistan's population growth rate rose steadily from about 2.6 percent per annum in the early 1960s to a high of about 3.5 percent during the late 1980s. Since then it has declined to an estimated 2.1 percent for 2003. Growth rates calculated from the population censuses, which show a very different picture, are distorted by differential accuracy of enumeration. During the period of rising growth rates, fertility was constant at just under 7 children per woman while life expectancy at birth rose by nearly 20 years. Fertility decline began in the late 1980s, bringing the population growth rate down with it. Remarkably, there appears to have been little change in life expectancy over the past 15 years.     

The Population of Centenarians in Brazil: Historical Estimates from 1900 to 2000

Since the nineteenth century, the census has provided the number of 100-year-olds in Brazil, one of the most populous countries worldwide. In 1900, 4,438 individuals reported themselves to be centenarians, a figure that increased about fivefold by the 2000 census. However, due to data quality issues, we are skeptical about the real size of the recorded population in the Brazilian census. We offer alternative estimates of the most likely number of centenarians during the twentieth century by combining variable-r relations with different mortality models. Our results indicate there was virtually no centenarian at the beginning of the twentieth century. The population has become larger than 1,000 individuals only in the 1990s, suggesting there has been an extensive, although diminishing, overenumeration of centenarians in the census records. Our results can help policymakers to plan the demands of a growing old age population in places that face stricter family and public budget constraints.     

Methods of Estimation on New Born Baby and Construction of Monitoring System under the New Fertility Policy

Abstract： China＇s basic medical care system has achieved universal coverage, laced the system transformation with substance fair. Under the transformation background from universal coverage to integration on urban and rural areas, and the transformation direction from the ＂medical care＂ to ＂health for all＂, through the institutional transition path on system design, service delivery, financial support, this paper points out that how to improve quality of medical care and optimizing the level of health care services, match sustainable funding system and improving payment system, which in public health, medical services, medical care and medicine supply, realize the transtbrmation and the development from universal medical care to health care.     

Estimates of the population of Puerto Rico and the outlying areas: 1980 to 1986

This report presents estimates of the population for July 1, 1980 to 1986 for the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, and The Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Census counts for 1980 are also shown for each of the areas. Components of population change for these areas for the 1980-1986 period are also shown. Most of the statistics used to prepare the area estimates were obtained from the local governments of the outlying areas. Except for Puerto Rico, all of the areas estimated are growing at a rate well above that of the US (64% from April 1, 1980 to July 1, 1986). Of the areas, Guam has exhibited the highest % of growth since 1980--19.6%. Although Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands have increased in population since 1890, both experienced population declines between 1985 and 1986. The Virgin Islands' population declined by 1.2%, from 110,800 to 109,500, while Puerto Rico's decreased by 3%, from 3,282,000 to 3,274,000.     

农村劳动力转移就业的空间决策及其个体属性影响——以安徽省四个样本村为例

农村劳动力转移就业空间决策是农村劳动力在特定目标指引下,通过具体就业途径和就业方式,进行就业地决策的过程。通过SPSS17．0的频率分析、聚类分析、交叉分析等方法,以安徽省四个样本村为例,探讨了农村劳动力在转移就业目标决策、就业途径决策、就业方式决策和就业地决策等方面的基本特征．分析了个体属性差异对转移就业空间决策的影响。研究结果表明,除外部环境外,个体属性因素深刻地影响农村劳动力转移就业空间决策,而提高人力资源,消除阻碍转移的户籍、社会保障、定居等障碍因素是提高劳动力就业质量的重要方面。     

贫困地区不同性别子女对家庭的价值差别现状研究--基于山西省吕梁山区农村的调查

从不同性别的子女在增加家庭劳动力和经济收入、家庭养老保障等方面分析,贫困地区不同性别子女对家庭的价值差别已发生了实质性的变化,表面上的差别已与实际情况发生分离.追求生育男孩已由生产生活的需要为主转变为精神、观念上的需求为主,其动力源主要在社会方面而不是在家庭内部.     

An Alternative to Fixed Transition Probabilities for the Projection of Interprovincial Migration in Canada

Internal migration plays a critical role in subnational population projections. The multiregional model is often seen as a gold standard, for its capacity to project several interconnected regions simultaneously and coherently. However, undesirable effects may occur when assumptions of constant transition probabilities are used. This paper investigates these limits, explores a few solutions provided in the literature and describes the alternative methodology used by Statistics Canada in its most recent edition of population projections for the Canadian provinces and territories. Among other things, the new method is shown to improve the consistency between internal migration assumptions and results and to facilitate the projection of the uncertainty associated with this component.