Integrating BP and MGWR-SL Model to Estimate Village-Level Poor Population: An Experimental Study from Qianjiang,China

Spatially-explicit, fine-scale mapping of poor population distribution at a village level is a necessary prerequisite for developing precise anti-poverty strategies in rural China. To address the data missing of poor population at a village scale, we proposed a modeling methodology from the perspective of spatial poverty, integrating BP and MGWR-SL (Mixed Geographically Weighted Regression model with Spatially Lagged dependent variable) that correspond to population estimation and poverty incidence estimation, respectively, to explore a more accurate and detailed village-level poor population distribution. Furthermore, we justified the accuracy, reliability, and scale effects of the model by using GIS spatial analysis and cross-validation. From the case test, we found that, the proposed model could characterize poor population distribution more accurately than other existing methods, resulting in that the errors of both population spatialization and poverty incidence for each village are less than 5% at a 500 * 500 m grid scale. It can also be inferred that the spatialization of socioeconomic data at a fine scale should take into full account of spatial heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation for both dependent and independent variables, so as to improve the modeling accuracy. This study may provide a perspective for better understanding the detailed and accurate poverty status of data–scarce village in poverty-stricken rural areas, and serves as a scientific reference regarding decision-making in both promoting “entire-village advancement” anti-poverty harmonious development and constructing the new countryside of China.     

A PPI-MVM Model for Identifying Poverty-Stricken Villages: A Case Study from Qianjiang District in Chongqing,China

To support China’s national poverty alleviation strategies, it is urgent to develop a scientific method for identifying the poverty-stricken villages and the contributing factors. Based on the anti-poverty plan of “Entire-Village Advancement” of China and the human-environment interaction perspective, the paper proposes a participatory poverty identification model that utilizes geographic information system to quantify and integrate various contributing factors for poverty at the village level. First, a set of poverty identification factors are determined from the human-environment interaction perspective. Secondly, the game theory is used to combine the participatory subjective weight method and the objective entropy method to weight the factors, and a participatory poverty identification with minimum variance model is developed to identify the poverty-stricken villages and their contributing factors. Finally, the model is applied to Qianjiang District in Chongqing, and the case study demonstrates the effectiveness of the model. The model not only identifies the poverty-stricken villages systematically but also helps guide policies for effective poverty interventions.     

Uneven dynamics and regional disparity of multidimensional poverty in China

Qualifying the official minimum of “Two no worries and three guarantees” (certainty of food and clothing, guarantees of compulsory education, basic medical care, and housing) is essential to evaluate the targeted poverty alleviation program since 2013 in China. Using the poverty monitoring dataset and the multidimensional poverty indicator system, the uneven dynamics and regional disparity of multidimensional poverty and its driving factors in poverty-stricken areas in China during 2014–2018 are explored in this paper. The incidence rate of multidimensional poverty was reduced by 61.72%, and the poverty reduction rate within the six dimensions ranged from 52.29 to 76.36%. Multidimensional poverty and its six dimensions displayed narrowing regional disparity. Impoverished and moderately poor areas shrank, whereas low-poverty areas expanded. All 22 provinces have become low-poverty areas in 2018. The contribution of each dimension to multidimensional poverty varies for different types at different stages. Income and expenditure contribute the most to poverty status, followed by transportation, housing conditions, education, communication, and medical care and health. The contribution of each indicator among different dimensions varied with different trends from 2014 to2018. This paper helps incorporate the official minimums of “Two no worries and three guarantees” into a more operational evaluation system to promote sustainable policies for governments at all levels by 2020 and beyond, as well as provide valuable references for poverty alleviation in other developing countries worldwide.

     

Modeling Comprehensive Dispersion of the Administrative Villages and Its Association with Economic Poverty: A Case Study from Poverty-Stricken Mountainous County,China

Identifying the dispersion of the administrative villages is one of prerequisites for the rational allocation of sources and services during implementing “Entire-Village Advancement” poverty alleviation strategy of China. From the perspective of an administrative village scale, this paper develops a methodology serving the construction of a comprehensive dispersion evaluation model and the examination of the relationship between dispersion and economic poverty. Specially, we develops an village-level comprehensive dispersion evaluation model that is presented in two forms of Euclidean Dispersion Index (EDI) versus Dispersion Composite Index (DCI), using spatial statistical analysis to examine the comprehensive dispersion of the administrative village and its association with the Net Income of Village Residents (NIVR) under different geographic and socioeconomic conditions. The case study in Neixiang County of China shows that, DCI is more rational and objective than EDI for scoring details of the village’s dispersion, especially in the mountainous area; DCI has a more significant spatial autocorrelation and a more significantly negative relationship to NIVR than EDI; the negative correlation between DCI and NIVR is obviously stronger in mountainous area than that in the hill and plain area; The closer to the economic circle, the higher NIVR vs. the lower DCI. Which not only provides new perspective and way to deal with dispersion, but also helps guide policies for effective poverty interventions.     

农村反贫困：开发式扶贫与社会保护的协同推进

我国农村的扶贫实践活动取得了举世瞩目的好成绩,然而新时期中国的减贫战略却面临着理论与实践两个困境：贫困内涵的转变,农村反贫困实践难度越来越大,贫困率的下降日渐趋缓。为打好新一轮扶贫攻坚战,必须坚持开发式扶贫方针,加大投入力度,强化社会保护政策减贫效应,将开发式扶贫政策与社会保护政策有效衔接起来,联合建构协同推进,构建集“开发性、预防性、发展性”于一体的新型减贫战略体系,针对不同贫困群体充分发挥各自减贫优势,让贫困者摆脱贫困的同时,自身发展能力也有所提高。     

Disparities in the Level of Poverty in China: Evidence from China Family Panel Studies 2010

This paper uses the Dual Cut-offs Approach to measure multidimensional poverty in China at the national, rural-urban, regional and provincial levels using the China Family Panel Studies data from 2010. Five dimensions and thirteen indicators are considered for the enumeration of poverty. It is observed that irrespective of cut-offs and weights, rural poverty in China is three to nine times of urban poverty. Social insurance, toilet and cooking fuel are the major indicators contributing to both rural and urban poverty. More urban households in the Western region are deprived, but urban poor households are deprived in more indicators in the Central region, and some Eastern provinces are poorer than some of the Central provinces. Furthermore, the paper identifies the provinces that contribute most to national poverty levels and finds the sources of poverty in those provinces.     

中国老年贫困人口规模研究

利用最低生活保障数据,采用不同贫困标准,对中国老年贫困人口规模进行测算。采用农村贫困线和"1天1美元"两个标准,测得农村老年贫困人口规模在1 400万人以上;采用城镇最低生活保障标准和"1天2美元"两个标准,测得城镇老年贫困人口规模在300万人左右。这样,中国老年贫困人口总规模近1 800万,老年贫困发生率超过10%。     

Spatial and Temporal Trends in Multidimensional Poverty in the United States over the Last Decade

This paper undertakes a comprehensive analysis of multidimensional poverty in the United States over the last decade. It provides estimates of multidimensional poverty over more than a decade, from 2008 to 2019, which covers the Great Recession and the recovery following the recession when major policy changes such as the Affordable Care Act were implemented. For the first time, spatial trends in estimates of multidimensional poverty are also provided. We measure annual poverty levels in 4 regions, 50 states and examine the relation between multidimensional poverty and neighborhood characteristics. We find that on average, 13 percent of the United States population was multidimensional poor. Poverty rates were high in the South and the West and among young adults, immigrants and Hispanics. Alternative indices of multidimensional poverty show consistent trends; multidimensional poverty in the United States rose between 2008 and 2010 and then gradually declined. However, more than a quarter of individuals with incomes above the poverty threshold remained multidimensional poor. This underscores the fact that income does not always capture deprivation experienced by individuals. Policies geared towards affordable housing, health insurance and higher education will help reduce multidimensional poverty in the United States.

     

Multidimensional Poverty in China: Findings Based on the CHNS

This paper estimates multidimensional poverty in China by applying the Alkire-Foster methodology to the China Health and Nutrition Survey 2000–2009 data. Five dimensions are included: income, living standard, education, health and social security. Results suggest that rapid economic growth has resulted not only in a reduction in income poverty but also in a reduction in multidimensional poverty in the last decade, both in terms of its prevalence and intensity. However, many challenges remain. There are wide disparities across provinces and between urban and rural areas, with poverty being 1.5 times higher in rural areas than in urban ones in 2009. Moreover, rising deprivation in education in rural and less developed provinces should also be a policymaking concern.     

甘肃省农村最低生活保障的实证分析

按照农民年人均纯收入的高低,我们将甘肃各市（州）相对地划分为较发达、欠发达和贫困地区。然后依据农村住户调查的详细资料和三类经济区农民年人均纯收入的分布分析计算出三类经济区农民最低生活保障的标准、人数及金额,结果符合甘肃实际。鉴于甘肃现行的农村最低生活保障标准低、范围小的问题,提出了调整、完善农村最低生活保障制度的思路和减缓贫困、改善民生的政策措施。     

Multidimensional Analysis of Water Poverty and Subjective Well-Being: A Case Study on Local Household Variation in Faisalabad,Pakistan

Water poverty is difficult to evaluate because it is multidimensional. It is determined not only by the availability of water sources but also whether communities have adequate access to clean, uncontaminated water. It is also dependent on the resource needs of those using the water. Under the premise that water scarcity is multidimensional, we use a Water Poverty Index approach using Principal Component Analysis to develop an index at the household level in 10 villages in one large farming community to examine each household’s subjective view of well being as a result of water poverty. This paper reviews how water resources endowments and depletion because of indiscriminate disposal of untreated industrial wastewater, household sewage and climate change are posing serious threats to water poverty at the household level in developing agrarian economies like Pakistan. We report from our results that both the perceived level of pollution and the proximity to clean and polluted water sources matter significantly for subjective well-being in rural households of Pakistan. The villages closer to polluted water sources are unhappier while the villages, which have better access to fresh water, have relatively higher subjective well-being. A strong implementation of environmental protection measures and regional strategies are suggested to alleviate water poverty and increase subjective well-being in local communities.     

从生育高峰出生同期群看我国农村养老模式的选择

第一次生育高峰期出生的人口,受到国家计划生育政策的影响,生育的孩子数目减少,是未来农村老年贫困的高发群体。国家应该对他们的老年生活给予资助。最后,对建立普享型老年津贴的可行性进行了分析。     

Determinants of Poverty and Their Variation Across the Poverty Spectrum: Evidence from Hong Kong,a High-Income Society with a High Poverty Level

This study aims to investigate into the determinants of poverty in Hong Kong. Previous research on poverty, which usually adopted a logistic regression model to examine individuals’ probabilities of being poor, could not adequately reveal the heterogeneity in experiences among people across the poverty spectrum, therefore has limited policy effort to address diverse needs of individuals struggling with poverty. In the present study, this concern is addressed by using a quantile regression model to examine the differential effects of the determinants of poverty across the poverty spectrum. Data were drawn from the Hong Kong Panel Survey for Poverty Alleviation (n?=?1668). Logistic regression indicated that being elderly, being female, not having a partner, from a single-parent household, not being employed, living in public rental housing, have lower educational attainment, and have poor self-rated health, increased the probability of being poor. Informational support was a protective factor of poverty, while several negative life events, such as having family member(s) with disabilities/chronic diseases and having financial burden, were risk factors of poverty. Quantile regression analysis was adopted to further examine the extent to which determinants of poverty unfold across poverty spectrum, which was captured by five groups of “extremely poor”, “deeply poor”, “at the poverty line”, “near poverty” and “marginally poor”. Quantile regression indicated that people living across the poverty spectrum were similarly affected by not having a partner, living in single-parent households and not working. However, extremely poor and deeply poor were more adversely affected by old age than those near poverty and marginally poor. It is also discovered that public rental housing buffered the poverty risks more in those who lived in deep poverty than those who were near poverty and marginally poor. University education protected the near poverty and marginally poor to a larger extent than those who were extremely poor and deeply poor. Information support also buffered the poverty risks, and people living across the poverty spectrum were equally benefited from it.

     

文旅融合型乡村旅游精准扶贫模式研究--以广东林寨古村落为例

为了实现“十三五”期末全国贫困人口全面脱贫的目标,乡村扶贫任务艰巨。尤其是具有自然、文化类旅游资源丰富的贫困乡村,如广东省林寨古村落的乡村旅游扶贫模式,实现了本地文化资源与旅游要素的深度融合,全面提升了乡村扶贫的经济、社会、文化等效应,增强乡村的自我“造血”功能,进一步推进新农村和美丽乡村建设。     

贫困地区农村基础教育可及性与农民的主观幸福感

文章运用河北、山西、安徽、河南、湖北、湖南、广西、四川、贵州9个省份19个国家级贫困县152个贫困村和2 254个农户的调查资料,使用生活满意度法对贫困地区农村基础教育可及性变差产生的社会成本进行了估计。研究结果显示,农户到最近的小学和初中的距离对农户主观幸福感具有显著的影响。文章认为,基础教育可及性变差可能导致辍学、机会成本增加、教育负担增加、家庭教育弱化、亲情淡漠、学生出现心理危机等问题,从而降低农户主观幸福感。为了保持农户主观幸福感不变,农户到最近小学教学点或小学的平均距离每增加1个百分点,农户户均纯收入大约需要提高0.196个百分点;农户到最近初中的平均距离每增加1个百分点,农户户均纯收入大约需要提高0.218个百分点。     

西部民族地区反贫困：绩效评估与未来取向

西部民族地区是我国贫困人口聚焦程度最高、贫困发生率最高、贫困强度指数最高、返贫率最高的地区。经过三十多年的反贫困实践,西部民族地区已经形成多元化的反贫困模式,并取得了良好的成效。新形势下,西部民族地区反贫困实战要在提高人口素质,强化反贫困能力;加快贫困地区经济发展,确保经济效益均衡分配;提高反贫困效率,保证反贫困成果;加快改革创新,寻求发展动力等几个方面寻找突破口。     

富裕农村社区的贫困问题研究

贫困问题已经越来越成为中国社会发展所面临的一个突出问题,并引起人们的广泛关注。但是,富裕农村社区贫困问题研究往往容易被忽视。从贫困负面影响而言,富裕社区的贫困问题,对社会所构成的负面影响和压力更大。本文利用苏南农村调查资料,探讨了富裕农村社区贫困问题,包括测量标准和家庭特征两方面内容。     

Gender and Multidimensional Poverty in South Africa: Applying the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI)

Recent work has shown that the gender gap in income poverty has widened in post-apartheid South Africa even though overall poverty levels have declined. One of the main criticisms of money-metric studies of gendered poverty differences is that income is only one dimension of poverty and that other measures of welfare may better reflect the relative well-being of women and female-headed households. This article presents a multidimensional approach to measuring the gender poverty gap in post-apartheid South Africa. Using data from the 2008 wave of the South African National Income Dynamic Study, the internationally comparable multidimensional poverty index (the MPI) is used to estimate gender differences in a number of different achievements. The findings suggest that the multidimensional gender poverty gap is similar to the poverty gap measured by the conventional money-metric approach at several national poverty lines. However, the MPI poverty differential between female- and male-headed households is slightly narrower than the income poverty gap between these two household types. In order to explore these findings further, the paper decomposes the components of multidimensional poverty by gender and for both female- and male-headed households. The paper concludes by considering how greater investments in health care delivery and in basic services, particularly in rural areas, may yield progress towards gender equality.     

关于中国贫困的动态多维度研究

文章利用中国健康与营养调查8个调查年度的数据,基于能力方法的视角,选用收入、教育和生活质量3个维度,对中国的贫困状况进行了动态多维度考察,结果发现:(1)相对于单一的收入贫困,多维贫困程度更为严重、波动性更大,贫困人口应对外部冲击的脆弱性明显,其中教育贫困尤其严重。(2)尽管农村与城市之间收入贫困趋于收敛,但近年来农村多维贫困对全国的贡献度高达80%以上,城乡间多维贫困差异有不断扩大的趋势。(3)指标等权重情形下的多维贫困随时间推移呈平稳快速下降态势,其中生活质量改善对多维贫困下降的贡献度最大。(4)就影响多维贫困的外在环境因素而言,东部地区的多维贫困下降明显快于其他地区,家庭中劳动力及户主的特征也对多维贫困产生显著影响。文章探讨了多维贫困的致因和消除多维贫困的政策选择。     

我国贫困人口标准再探讨

近几年,通过对我国10余个贫困县的考察,笔者认为:农村贫困人口标准过低,仅相当于国际贫困线确定的最低贫困人口标准的1/5,相当其贫困标准的1/10;相当于我国监狱囚犯生活标准的1/4,相当于美国贫困人口标准的1/50。贫困人口难以完成在当时社会一般的、正常状况下劳动力的再生产。农村贫困人口从2亿多减少到2000多万,主要不是扶贫工作所致,而是到城镇打工。依据马克思劳动力价值学说的基本原理,抓紧调整提高农村贫困人口标准,改进扶贫工作机制,对我国的长治久安和建设和谐社会的大局有利。