1982～2010年期间四次全国人口普查数据一致性研究——基于出生人口队列的分析

数据一致性是反映人口普查数据质量高低的重要指标。文章以第三、四、五、六次全国人口普查数据为基础,充分考虑人口死亡因素,比较同一出生队列人口在不同普查年份的人口规模,以此对人口普查数据一致性进行检验。研究中主要有三点发现:一是分时期进行分析,在"三普"至"六普"的28年间,九成以上出生队列人口存活率大于1,发生正偏离现象;二是对四次人口普查中的相邻两次普查依次进行比较,普查时处于0～90岁的91个出生队列人口偏离量逐渐增大,偏离率渐次上升;三是分性别来看,1982～2000年出生队列人口偏离程度存在显著性别差异。相当数量的出生队列人口出现系统性正偏离,表明在人口普查中存在较为严重的人口漏报、人口重报或死亡漏报。     

Consistency between fertility attitudes and behaviour: A conceptual model

Abstract The consistency (or lack of it) between attitude and behaviour has been a controversial issue in social psychology for the past several decades,(1) and more recently has become a focus of considerable controversy in the field of population studies.(2) In accordance with Freedman, Hermalin and Chang,(3)it is argued here that this controversy will not be resolved by theoretical discussions, and evidence is needed from many countries at several time points to resolve this issue. This paper presents evidence on consistency between fertility attitudes and behaviour from survey data from Venezuela and, based upon analysis of the present data, suggests a conceptual model for the study of consistency between fertility attitudes and behaviour.     

Consistency between fertility attitudes and behaviour: A conceptual model

The consistency (or lack of it) between attitude and behaviour has been a controversial issue in social psychology for the past several decades,¹ and more recently has become a focus of considerable controversy in the field of population studies.² In accordance with Freedman, Hermalin and Chang,³it is argued here that this controversy will not be resolved by theoretical discussions, and evidence is needed from many countries at several time points to resolve this issue. This paper presents evidence on consistency between fertility attitudes and behaviour from survey data from Venezuela and, based upon analysis of the present data, suggests a conceptual model for the study of consistency between fertility attitudes and behaviour.     

An Exploratory Analysis of Societal Preferences for Research-Driven Quality of Life Improvements in Canada

Research in the humanities, arts, and social sciences (HASS) tends to have impacts that enhance quality of life (QOL) but that are not amenable to pricing in established markets. If the economic value of ‘non-market’ research impacts is ignored when making the business case for HASS research, society will under-invest in it. My goal in this research was to quantify priorities and tradeoffs Canadians were willing to make between broad QOL attributes. A national sample (N = 1,612; 14,571 observations) cleaved into five distinct latent classes, each of which varied according to their preferences and willingness to pay for QOL impacts. One class, comprising 21% of the sample, placed a strong priority on QOL indicators relating to people, community, and culture, and was willing to pay, on average, 892 per household per year for improvements across a full range of QOL attributes. While willing to pay892 per household per year for improvements across a full range of QOL attributes. While willing to pay 1,393 per household per year in total, a second segment, comprising 20% of the sample, focused heavily on benefits more likely to be derived from science and technology research. Willingness to pay for specific and aggregate improvements amongst the balance of the sample was lower. Diverse preferences regarding potential QOL impacts suggest that researchers will need to consider both the source and magnitude of public benefits arising from HASS research in the future.     

Self-Reported Fears as Indicators of Young Children’s Well-Being in Societal Change: A Cross-Cultural Perspective

Our main interest in this paper is in studying children’s well-being by using children themselves as informants and fear as an indicator of insecurity from cross-cultural and longitudinal perspectives. More specifically our paper documents the changes in the content and prevalence of children’s fears in two neighboring countries, Finland and Estonia, during the last decade. The study was carried out in 1993 and replicated in 2002/2003 in both countries with the random samples of total number of 420 five to six-year-old children (in Estonia 115 in 1993 and 91 in 2002; in Finland 105 and 109, respectively). For both countries the decade in question was a period of social, political and economic transition including post-socialist transformation in Estonia. Especially informationalization and globalization had a profound impact on the everyday life of parents and children. The increase of insecurity among children in both countries was expected. Children’s fears were investigated by means of an individual semi-structured and picture-aided interview. The most important findings are: the prevalence of children’s self-reported fears has generally increased during the ten years, especially among the Estonian children. The most significant increase was observed in both countries in fears of imagination-related things including television-related fears, fears of imagined creatures and of nightmares parallel to children’s increased media-exposure in daily life. Despite the increase of␣general welfare in both countries our results suggest the opposite tendency among young children; decrease of safety and increase of insecurity. The level of children’s insecurity was higher in Estonian than in Finland at both times. It is noteworthy that some fears of young children are ‚universal’ (fear of getting lost, fear of darkness, fear of being alone), while some fears are more context dependent (television-induced fears, fear of strange people). Young children proved to be competent informants of their condition and well able to provide essential and invaluable information about their problems and well-being. An erratum to this article can be found at     

An Economic Wellbeing Index for the Spanish Provinces: A Data Envelopment Analysis Approach

 This article presents the estimation of a synthetic economic wellbeing index using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The DEA is a multidimensional technique that has its origins in efficiency analysis, but its usage within the social indicators context is particularly appropriate. It allows the researcher to take advantage of the inherent flexibility of DEA when assigning weights to the factors. The model itself carries out the aggregation and weighting of 8 partial indicators, which attempt to describe the four components of economic wellbeing suggested by Osberg (Royal Commision on the Economic Union and Development Prospects for Canada (University of Toronto Press, 1985)), in order to assess the economic wellbeing of the 50 Spanish provinces. By using the index obtained in the analysis a “ranking” of the provinces is obtained. This ranking proves to be relatively similar to the one that corresponds to per capita income, although there are significant differences.     

Data Gap Analysis,Indicator Selection and Index Development: A Case for Developing Economies

Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and its measurement is a key policy focus across the globe. Despite existence of several indices and reporting agencies, it is a challenging task to identify progress, specifically in the case of developing economies. These economies are predominantly in Asia and Africa and have a great bearing on global performance. These countries have diverse geographical and cultural elements with an active sub-national institutional framework. Data gap coupled with poor data quality and limited financial support does not help their case. Without appropriate indicator selection and index measurement it is not possible to judge the actual current situation or compare the SDG situation around the world. This paper attempts a practical and simpler approach to overcome the constraints, provide direction and facilitate measurement of SDG position in such countries using the case of India. This is done by identifying gaps, suggesting a tailored approach to indicator selection and measurement and further, developing a suitable index for SDG measurement at the sub-national level. The results and findings should be of great interest for policy making and implementing agencies.

     

A New Relative Importance Index of Evaluation for Conjoint Analysis: Some Findings for CRM Assistant

Social Indicators Research - ELECTUS is an Italian multi-centre research project with the aim of reinforcing the relationship between the academic world and business. Through this project, it is...     

Societal Metabolism and Multiple-Scale Integrated Assessment: Empirical Validation and Examples of Application

This paper presents empirical data to validate two points. (1) An integrated analysis of societal metabolism bridges an economic view of changes in socioeconomic systems with a biophysical representation of them. To obtain this check, it compares a biophysical indicator of development BEP with 24 traditional indicators of material economic development. The comparison covers a sample of 107 countries of the world, comprising more than 90% of the total world population (year 1993). (2) The concept of societal metabolism is useful to make biophysical analysts aware of constraints implied by economic viability and to make economic analysts aware of constraints implied by biophysical viability. To prove this point three practical examples of misunderstanding in the field of sustainability analysis are discussed.     

A Quality of Growth Index for Developing Countries: A Proposal

This paper proposes a new quality of growth index for developing countries. The index encompasses both the intrinsic nature and social dimensions of growth, and is computed for over 90 countries for the period 1990–2011. The approach is premised on the fact that not all growth is created equal in terms of social outcomes, and that it does matter how one reaches from one level of income to another for various theoretical and empirical reasons. The paper finds that the quality of growth has been improving in the vast majority of developing countries over the past two decades, although the rate of convergence is relatively slow. At the same time, there are considerable cross-country variations across income levels and regions. Finally, empirical investigations point to the fact that main factors of the quality of growth are political stability, public pro-poor spending, macroeconomic stability, financial development, institutional quality and external factors such as FDI.     

The Multidimensional Gender Inequalities Index (MGII): A Descriptive Analysis of Gender Inequalities Using MCA

This paper constructs a weighted measure of the multidimensional concept of gender inequality: the Multidimensional Gender Inequality Index (MGII). Multiple Correspondence Analysis is used to rank the separate forms in which gender inequality appears in developed and developing countries respectively. Eight dimensions were identified as relevant for economic purposes: identity, physical integrity, intra-family laws, political activity, education, health, access to economic resources, and economic activity. In the 109 developing countries considered, gender inequality in the identity and family dimensions are particularly severe for women: these dimensions hence have greater weight in the MGII. However, in OECD countries gender inequality occurs mainly in the political and family dimensions. Nevertheless, the family sphere remains particularly important for gender inequality, whatever the level of development. The MGII is a non-linear weighted composite indicator of gender inequality which yields a country ranking. The South-Asian region is calculated to be the most unequal.     

社会动态人口承载力的预测--以云南省澜沧江区域人口为例

结合传统人口预测方法，本研究提出了结合人口与经济的新人口预测方法，并应用这一方法实证研究了云南省澜沧江区域的人口。这种方法有助于定量说明人口再生产和物质资料再生产的辩证关系。     

Multiple-Scale Integrated Assessments of Societal Metabolism: Integrating Biophysical and Economic Representations Across Scales

The crucial challenge for integrated analyses of socioeconomic systems is keeping coherence in their multidimensional representation. Our approach describes the hierarchical structure of socioeconomic systems using the profile of allocation of human activity over a set of compartments defined at different hierarchical levels (e.g., whole countries, economic sectors, individual households). Compartments are characterized in terms of intensive variables (intensity of both exosomatic energy flows and added value flows per unit of human activity) and the extensive variable Total Human Activity population. In this way, relations of congruence across hierarchical levels can be used to link non-equivalent analyses. That is, changes in demographic variables, economic variables, technical coefficients, indices of environmental loading, institutional settings, and social aspirations are no longer independent of each-other even if described within different scientific disciplines.     

对"五普"和"四普"队列人口一致性的再检验

第五次全国人口普查改变了标准时点,使得在对比以往人口普查结果的一致性时需要先做调整。以往研究在进行这种一致性检查时均采用了对单岁年龄组人口内插分配的方法来取得与以前普查队列的相同口径。然而,这种调整方法所依赖的一些假定由于不符合实际可能导致较大的误差。本研究通过新的途径,根据第五次全国人口普查样本重新检查了"五普"和"四普"年龄别人口一致性,得到的结果与以往研究结果有显著差别。采用新方法来进行对比时,"五普"和"四普"队列人口的一致性显得比以往结果要好得多。     

Seeking Construct Validity in Interpersonal Trust Research: A Proposal on Linking Theory and Survey Measures

This paper highlights the under-emphasised connection between theoretical conceptualisations and empirical operationalisations in the field of trust research. The paper proposes a matching of specific surveys measures with conceptualisations in order to work towards a more theoretically-informed empirical study of interpersonal trust. The work examines five widely-used survey measures of trust, and considers whether they are likely to operationalise conceptualisations of trust that are broadly more ‘strategic’ or more ‘moralistic’ in nature. It is argued that these trust questions, which are frequently used interchangeably, are likely to differ substantially from each other in terms of their conceptual underpinnings. This expectation is tested by examining the association between interpersonal trust and gender across seven UK social surveys. Findings indicate that the trust questions indeed have different associations with gender, providing support for the idea that some questions map more closely onto ‘strategic’ conceptualisations of trust, whilst others map more closely onto ‘moralistic’ conceptualisations. Implications of these findings are explored in the context of the search for construct validity in trust research.     

On the Measurement of Interpersonal Trust Transfer: Proposal of Indexes

This paper investigates the measurement of trust transfer in interpersonal contexts. Despite the importance of this topic, little evidence of comparable indicators exists to fill the current gap in knowledge regarding the measurement of interpersonal transference of trust and its reciprocal. We propose a modification of the classical structure of a widely accepted experimental setting for analyzing trust (i.e. a trust game) and build two indexes for the measurement of trust transfer and its reciprocation. Several properties of these indicators are investigated to examine their robustness and accuracy for measuring the transference of interpersonal trust. Furthermore, using data from our own modified trust game, we provide an empirical examination of both indexes. The results show that the existence of a mutually known third party fosters a stronger willingness to achieve cooperative behavior in an anonymous trust game; thus, the transference of interpersonal trust works in both directions of the dyad.     

Using Ranked Weights and Acceptability Analysis to Construct Composite Indicators: A Case Study of Regional Sustainable Society Index

A variety of published composite indicators, i.e., Energy Trilemma Index and Sustainable Society Index, are commonly aggregated with equal weights. However, this plausible scheme is criticized as eclecticism and ignores the discriminating power of the different indicators. Differing from the traditional methods that assign weights to each indicator for the purpose of aggregation, this paper proposes a new mechanism to construct composite indicators using ranked weights and stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis. More specifically, this study comprehensively consider all possible preferences among the indicators. Under each preference, we develop a sophisticated mathematical transformation to calculate the least and most favorable scores of each entity, which formulates the lower and upper bounds of the intervals. Then an interval decision matrix, alternatively described as a stochastic decision problem, is formulated to construct the composite indicators. Holistic acceptability indices are generated and regarded as a new composite indicator, which is capable of providing a comprehensive and robust composite indicator with more discriminating power. We apply the proposed method to modify the regional sustainable society index and present the obtained results and comparisons.     

The Salience of Perceived Societal Conflict in Europe: A 27 Country Study on the Development of a Measure for Generalized Conflict Thinking

Social Indicators Research - Over the last two decades, European countries have struggled with several crises (e.g., the Great Recession, the refugee crisis) which had a tremendous impact on (some)...