SMOKE-FREE AIR LAWS, CIGARETTE PRICES, AND ADULT CIGARETTE DEMAND

This article examines the impact of cigarette prices and smoke-free air laws on adult smoking. Probit methods and a generalized linear model with log-link and Gaussian distribution are employed to model adult smoking propensity and intensity, respectively. After controlling for unobserved state-level heterogeneity, which can influence both tobacco policy and smoking behavior, the estimates from this study imply that an inverse relationship exists between cigarette prices and both smoking prevalence and average cigarette consumption by adult smokers. The estimates also imply that more restrictive smoke-free air laws decrease average smoking by adult smokers but have little impact on prevalence. (JEL I18 )     

DO HIGHER TOBACCO TAXES REDUCE ADULT SMOKING? NEW EVIDENCE OF THE EFFECT OF RECENT CIGARETTE TAX INCREASES ON ADULT SMOKING

There is a general consensus among policymakers that raising tobacco taxes reduces cigarette consumption. However, evidence that tobacco taxes reduce adult smoking is relatively sparse. In this paper, we extend the literature in two ways: using data from the Current Population Survey Tobacco Use Supplements we focus on recent, large tax changes, which provide the best opportunity to empirically observe a response in cigarette consumption, and employ a novel paired difference‐in‐differences technique to estimate the association between tax increases and cigarette consumption. Estimates indicate that, for adults, the association between cigarette taxes and either smoking participation or smoking intensity is negative, small, and not usually statistically significant. Our evidence suggests that increases in cigarette taxes are associated with small decreases in cigarette consumption and that it will take sizable tax increases, on the order of 100%, to decrease smoking by as much as 5%. (JEL I18, I12)     

RISK BELIEFS AND SMOKING BEHAVIOR

We analyze smoking risk beliefs and smoking behavior using individual data from 1997 for the United States and 1998 for Massachusetts. Smokers and adults more generally overestimate the lung cancer risks of smoking and the mortality risks and life expectancy loss. Higher risk beliefs decrease the probability of starting to smoke and increase the probability of quitting among those who begin. Better educated smokers have lower and more accurate risk beliefs, but education decreases the probability of smoking. Higher state cigarette taxes correlate with risk beliefs but not with smoking status. The uninsured are especially likely to remain current smokers. ( JEL I12, I18, D80)     

DURATION MODELS FOR CREDIT RATING MIGRATION: EVIDENCE FROM THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

We introduce a specific duration model to analyze the prediction of the credit rating migration. We consider hazard rate processes based on multi‐state autoregressive conditional duration models. To take account of the economic context, we model the conditional mean of the duration between two ratings by means of a latent process. To this purpose, a dynamic‐ordered probit model is developed to describe the directions taken by the ratings in the presence of multiple states. As an illustration, we study the migration of credit rating during periods before and after the financial crisis. (JEL C14, C41, G24)     

Depressive symptoms and cigarette smoking in a college sample

OBJECTIVE AND PARTICIPANTS: The authors examined (1) the relationship between depressive symptoms and cigarette smoking in a college sample and (2) the role of smoking self-efficacy (one's perceived ability to abstain from smoking) in explaining the relationship between depressive symptoms and cigarette smoking. METHODS: Predominantly first-year college students at a large public university completed a self-report inventory indexing depressive symptoms, cigarette smoking, and smoking self-efficacy. RESULTS: Findings indicated that students high in depressive symptoms smoked significantly more cigarettes per day than did those with low depressive symptoms. Further, among current smokers, smoking self-efficacy explained the relationship between depressive symptoms and cigarette smoking. CONCLUSIONS: These findings add to accumulating evidence that depressive symptoms are a risk factor for increased cigarette smoking in college students. The authors discuss implications for university-based smoking cessation and prevention programs.     

THE DEMAND FOR CIGARETTE SMUGGLING

When taxes raise the full price of a good above that in nearby jurisdictions consumers have an incentive to cross into the lower-price jurisdiction to make purchases. Using a simple microeconomic model of the consumer's border-crossing decision, we derive an econometric model to test the significance of border crossing and estimate the magnitude of the resulting sales. Examining cigarette sales in the continental U.S. over the period 1960 to 1986, we find strong evidence that border crossing is a significant factor in explaining sales differentials between states. Implications for demand estimation and excise tax policy are discussed.     

Depressive Symptoms and Cigarette Smoking in a College Sample

Objective and Participants: The authors examined (1) the relationship between depressive symptoms and cigarette smoking in a college sample and (2) the role of smoking self-efficacy (one's perceived ability to abstain from smoking) in explaining the relationship between depressive symptoms and cigarette smoking. Methods: Predominantly first-year college students at a large public university completed a self-report inventory indexing depressive symptoms, cigarette smoking, and smoking self-efficacy. Results: Findings indicated that students high in depressive symptoms smoked significantly more cigarettes per day than did those with low depressive symptoms. Further, among current smokers, smoking self-efficacy explained the relationship between depressive symptoms and cigarette smoking. Conclusions: These findings add to accumulating evidence that depressive symptoms are a risk factor for increased cigarette smoking in college students. The authors discuss implications for university-based smoking cessation and prevention programs.     

CURRENT ACCOUNT ADJUSTMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE ROLE OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

This article employs hazard models to investigate the role of exchange rate regimes in the timing of current account adjustment in developing countries. We identify high current account deficit spells and find that fixed exchange rate regimes increase the duration of high deficit spells and thus delay current account adjustment. The result is robust to a variety of model specifications and alternative classifications of exchange rate regimes. When distinguishing between hard pegs and soft pegs, we notice that the delay in the current account adjustment is primarily driven by hard pegs rather than soft pegs. (JEL F3, F4)     

Relation Between Maternal Cigarette Smoking During Pregnancy and Behavioral and Physiological Measures of Autonomic Regulation in Neonates

The effects of maternal cigarette smoking during pregnancy on behavioral and physiological measures of arousal were examined in a sample of 50 neonates. After the effects of alcohol, caffeine, and maternal demographic variables were statistically controlled, regression analyses showed that maternal smoking during pregnancy was predictive of higher heart rates overall and during quiet and active sleep. Maternal smoking during pregnancy was also predictive of lower heart rate variability and an increased number of tremors and changes in behavioral state. These findings suggest that maternal cigarette smoking during pregnancy affects the regulation of spontaneous autonomic activity in neonates.     

PRICES,INFLATION, AND SMOKING ONSET: THE CASE OF ARGENTINA

This article examines the effect of tobacco prices on the decision to start smoking in Argentina. Argentina is an interesting case to explore given its high smoking rates, its recent experience with periods of very high and hyperinflation, and the mixed evidence of the effect of prices on smoking onset, particularly in low‐ and middle‐income countries. We used data from four cycles of two large national surveys conducted between 2005 and 2011 and discrete‐time hazard models. We found that tobacco prices had a statistically significant and fairly large impact on the hazard of smoking onset, and these findings were robust to alternative specifications. We also found that prices had little effect on the hazards of smoking onset during periods of hyper‐ and very high inflation, which provide some support for the notion that prices lose their informational role in such periods. Governments need to be cognizant that their most important policy tool to reduce tobacco use—taxes that increase real tobacco prices—is likely no longer effective during these times. (JEL C41, H20, I12, I18)     

Community and Individual Factors Associated with Cigarette Smoking Among Young Men Who Have Sex With Men

Young men who have sex with men (YMSM) have higher rates of cigarette smoking than their heterosexual counterparts, yet few studies have examined factors associated with cigarette smoking among YMSM. The present study sought to understand how different types of gay community connection (i.e., gay community identification and involvement, gay bar/club attendance) were associated with smoking among YMSM recruited through venue-based sampling in Los Angeles, California (N = 526). Structural equation modeling was used to isolate direct and indirect effects of gay community connection on smoking through cognitive and psychological mediators (i.e., psychological distress, health values, internalized homophobia). Findings indicate YMSM cigarette smoking prevention and intervention must be tailored to address the direct and indirect influences of the gay community.     

Cigarette diffusion and sex differences in smoking

Because the recent narrowing of the sex differential in smoking (and mortality from smoking-related causes) coincides with movement toward gender equality and independence among women, it suggests that rising status among women has contributed to their adoption of male smoking behavior (and ultimately to worsening longevity). However, an alternative "cigarette diffusion" explanation suggests that convergence in male and female smoking is the byproduct of a female lag in the process of cigarette adoption, diffusion, and abatement. Using multilevel models and data for 16 European nations from 1988-1995, the analysis demonstrates consistent support for the predictions of the cigarette diffusion explanation. Smoking of men and women becomes more similar in nations that have the longest history of cigarette use rather than the greatest gender equality.     

TAX EFFECTS, PRICE EXPECTATIONS AND THE NOMINAL RATE OF INTEREST

This paper investigates the relationship between price expectations, income taxes and the nominal rate of interest in Canada. Our primary approach was to utilize the rational expectations hypothesis to create a synthetic price expectations series and to apply this series to four models of the determination of the nominal rate of interest; the Yohe-Karnovsky model, the Carr-Smith model, the Feldstein-Eckstein model and the Jenkins-Lim model. The analysis is inconclusive with respect to the Darby hypothesis that income tax considerations will cause the nominal rate of interest to increase by more than the increase in the expected rate of inflation.     

AN ASSESSMENT OF CAUSAL INFERENCE IN SMOKING INITIATION RESEARCH AND A FRAMEWORK FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

Reliably identifying the causal factors underlying youth smoking initiation is an important part of developing effective smoking prevention programs and shaping other types of smoking-related policies. The establishment of reliable scientific evidence in support of a causal link between cigarette advertising and youth smoking initiation depends on both rich longitudinal data as well as careful empirical applications. We examine basic principles of empirical scientific investigation of potential causal relationships, discuss findings of recent research on causal factors of youth smoking, and evaluate evidence from the public health literature regarding the effects of cigarette advertising on youth smoking . ( JEL I18, C5)     

Global Patterns and Determinants of Sex Differences in Smoking

The worldwide spread of tobacco use in recent decades raises questions about the relative prevalence of smoking among men and women. Does the degree of gender equality in nations promote equality in cigarette use? Does rising use of cigarettes by women stem from the stage of cigarette diffusion and earlier increases among men? Or have changes in economic factors and smoking policy affected the sexes differently? This study uses aggregate data for 106 nations, measures of smoking prevalence circa 2000, and lagged measures of gender equality, cigarette diffusion, and tobacco access to address these questions and evaluate the underlying theories. With the logged ratio of female to male prevalence as the dependent variable, regression results reveal that gender equality has inconsistent effects on women's smoking relative to men, cigarette diffusion has more consistent and moderately strong effects, and economic factors have weak effects. Global patterns of adoption of cigarettes by women appear most closely associated with the early adoption by men and then movement through a regular pattern of cigarette diffusion.     

DURABILITY, MAINTENANCE AND THE PRICE OF USED ASSETS

This paper considers assets whose service flow decays at a rate determined by built-in durability and the level of maintenance. A cost minimization model determines optimal durability and maintenance and shows how these variables respond to changes in interest rates, the price of maintenance, and the cost of new assets. The price of old assets adjusts so that the cost of services from both old and new assets is the same. The model provides a framework for analyzing data on automobile scrapping rates and repair expenditures. Data for postwar United States show that scrapping rates are sensitive to the price of repairs relative to the price of new cars. The amount of repairs per car also responds to the relative repair price .     

Adolescents’ Responses to Cigarette Advertisements for Five “Youth Brands” and One “Adult Brand”

Almost all smoking initiation takes place during adolescence, and the appeal of cigarette advertising is frequently proposed as one of the reasons adolescents begin smoking, but few studies have investigated adolescents’ responses to cigarette ads. This study examined responses to cigarette advertisements among 400 adolescents ages 12 to 17 years in Arizona and Washington, who were surveyed in shopping malls. Adolescents were presented with two ads for each of five youth brands (Marlboro^TM, Newport^TM, Camel^TM, Kool^TM, and Winston^TM) and one ad for an adult brand (Merit^TM), and were asked how often they had seen the ad, how much they liked the ad, and whether or not the ad made smoking more appealing. A substantial proportion of adolescents, especially smokers, liked the ads for the youth brands and believed the ads made smoking more appealing. The ads for Marlboro and the new Camel and Winston ads were especially attractive to adolescents. In contrast, few adolescents liked the ad for the adult brand and few believed that it made smoking more appealing.     

Hookah and Cigarette Smoking Among African American College Students: Implications for Campus Risk Reduction And Health Promotion Efforts

ABSTRACT

Objective: To identify individual and institutional risks and protections for hookah and cigarette smoking among African American (AA) college students. Participants: AA college students (N = 1,402; mean age = 20, range = 18–24 years; 75% female) who completed the Fall 2012 American College Health Association–National College Health Assessment II. Methods: Respondents were stratified into 4 mutually exclusive groups by last-30-day smoking status: cigarette-only use (5.1%), hookah-only use (5.9%), dual use (2.4%), and nonuse (86.6%). Multinomial logistic regression models identified the relative odds of exclusive and dual hookah and cigarette smoking. Results: Current hookah and cigarette smoking rates were comparably low. Age, gender identity, current substance use, interest in tobacco use information, and student population prevailed as risks and protections for hookah and cigarette smoking. Conclusions: Campus health promotion campaigns may need to tailor messages to AA students, particularly those who use substances, to underscore the health risks of hookah and cigarette smoking.     

College smoking policies and smoking cessation programs: results of a survey of college health center directors

College students' cigarette smoking rose dramatically during the 1990s. Little is known about what colleges do to address the problem. Health center directors at 393 4-year US colleges provided information (response rate: 65.1%) about college policies addressing smoking and the availability of smoking cessations programs. Of the health center directors surveyed, 85% considered students' smoking a problem; yet only 81% of colleges prohibit smoking in all public areas and only 27% ban smoking in all indoor areas, including students' rooms in dormitories and in private offices. More than 40% of the respondents reported that their schools did not offer smoking cessation programs and that the demand for existing program was low. Colleges need to do more to discourage student tobacco use. Recommended actions include campus-wide no-smoking policies that apply to student residences and identification of new ways of providing smoking prevention and cessation services.     

Multiple Dimensions of Cigarette Smoking and Responsiveness to Cigarette Price Changes in Taiwan

This study investigates how smokers respond to both short- and long-run changes in the price of cigarettes in multiple dimensions of smoking behavior. Using a sample of males from a national longitudinal survey in Taiwan, we estimated the demand for cigarettes under both short- and long-run specifications using a quality-purged price index. We found a modest short-run price elasticity of demand for cigarettes and a long-run elasticity of demand that did not significantly exceed the short-run elasticity. We also found that smokers responded to higher cigarette prices by smoking each cigarette more fully without changing their choices of tar and nicotine content to compensate for reduced cigarette consumption.