[An inquiry into causes of county-level specific fertility differences in Gansu province].]

Fertility differentials among the 78 counties of Gansu province, China, are analyzed using data from the 1982 census. Three alternative methods of analysis are applied to the data to identify the social, political, and economic factors that affect fertility differentials. The author also notes that changes in population characteristics are associated with fertility differentials.     

An inquiry into self-identification with retirement

ABSTRACT

The aim of this qualitative study was to explore patterns in self-identification with being retired using deductive thematic analysis informed by the life course perspective. For this study, a set of women who self-identified as retired (n = 60) were asked to describe their current work status, major career interruptions, and factors that marked their retirement. This study provides important insights into the heterogeneity in women’s retirement including a subset of individuals who self-identified as retired, not based on their own work force transitions but on that of their spouse or peers. Findings highlight the importance of recognizing that the construction of retirement identity can be context driven, varied, and subjective.     

An inquiry into the formula of calculation of the planned total population]

Population planning is considered to national economic planning. In order to plan population properly, there must be a correct method of calculation. If the method is not scientific, then the results are difficult to verify; if it is not perfect, then the results will be imprecise. If inaccurate results are used as the basis for economic activities, then there will be adverse effects on a country's economic development. Mathematical calculations must be scientific, i.e., the contents being calculated and the results must all be logical. Currently the most commonly used calculations cannot be called scientific and logical. A mathematical formula is developed which fulfills 3 necessary criteria: 1) it is seientific, i.e., the indicators and the formula conform to the needs of statistical work, the implied meaning is valid, and the results conform to objective needs and the goals of the calculation; 2) it is simple, i.e., it does not involve complex mathematical operations and it gets answers relatively quickly without the use of a calculator; further, it can predict population totals for relatively long periods of time; and 3) it is applicable to calculating any population total of a future period and can be used on a national or local level.     

Uncertain lifetime, fertility and social security

Investigating the effects of population aging on fertility and economic growth, we show that an increase in life expectancy lowers the fertility rate and raises life-cycle savings, and that a pay-as-you-go social security does not reverse the effect on fertility. Received: 10 March 2000/Accepted: 28 April 2000     

A preliminary inquiry into the population thought of Comrade Mao Ze-dong]

A summary of Mao's thinking on birth control is presented. The author states that although Mao originally believed a large population and rapid population growth were beneficial, the results of the 1953 Chinese census caused him to change his mind and advocate population control. However, political conditions prevented the implementation of this policy change, which only began to be effective in the 1970s following Chou En-lai's endorsement, official endorsement by the State Council, and inclusion of population plans in the fourth Five Year Plan in 1971.     

An analysis of the fertility of Chinese women]

The 1982 census provided detailed information on fertility in China. It recorded 20,689,704 births in 1981, producing a birth rate of 2.1%, a decrease, respectively, of 43% and more than 50% in comparison with 1952 and 1963. The birth rate has varied widely over the last 30 years, from 3.6% in the early 1950's, to 1.8% in 1961, after a planned birth program was begun, to a record high of 3.7% in 1962 following the economic recovery, to 3.3% in 1970, after a gradual decline through the 1960's. By 1981 the birth rate had declined to 2.1%, clearly resulting from the intense planned fertility promotion begun in the early 1970's. In the mid- and late 50's, urban birth rate was consistently higher than rural, with the mass move to the cities at the beginning of the People's Republic. General economic development after 1957 brought simultaneous declines of both urban and rural rates, both reaching a low point in 1961. Age structure of the population also has an influence, depending on the proportion of childbearing women in the population. In 1981, the fertility of China's childbearing women was 8.3%, lower than that of the developing countries, but higher than the developed countries. By age group, the fertility rates reached 14.7% and 23.9% respectively in women between 20-24 and 25-29 years of age; the legal marriage age is 20. The fertility rate in large cities is generally lower than that of provinces. Higher educational and socio-economic level also exert an inverse influence on fertility rates; in low socio-economic areas the rate reached 3.5%, and in more advanced areas it was held to 2.2%. In all professions with the exception of agriculture, fishing, and forestry, the percentage of families with 1 child was 81.8%. Since planned fertility was implemented, the overall fertility rate has dropped from 3% to 2%. China's fertility mode has changed to that of developed countries, with high intensity between 20 and 29 years of age. Appropriate measures should be taken to lower the fertility rate in different regions.     

Calculation of the expected lifetime lost due to an extra risk

Methods are given for estimating the average years of life lost when a person is discovered to be at risk from an extra hazard. The methods use the probability per year of the extra risk striking, and the mean and standard deviation of lifetime in the absence of the risk. The formulae are simple enough that only a hand‐held calculator is needed.     

Preliminary inquiry into the difference in sex ratio at birth in China]

Based on population statistics from China's 2nd and 3rd national censuses, China's unusually high male/female birth rates are examined. It appears that the lower male/female birth rates are generally found in China's minority-populated autonomous regions. Xizang Autonomous Region (Tibet) has the nation's lowest male/female birth ratio of 101.3; the highest ratio, 112.5, is in Anhui province; the national average for 1981 was 108.47. Although geographic, socioeconomic, and other factors may be attributed to regional differences, it is maintained that the high male/female birth rate is universal throughout China. The significant difference between the relatively high male/female birth rate in China's urban areas in 1981 (109.9), and the lower rate in the rural areas (107.6) is challenged by the author, who suggests that China's urban statistics are unquestionably more reliable than the rural statistics. The author suggests that factors such as the importance of raising male offspring, China's traditionally male-dominated family system, and the desire for male farm workers is strongest in China's rural sector. The current male/female birth rate is not a recent trend; prior to 1949, the male/female birth rate ranged from 110 to 115.     

An analysis of the fertility transition in developing countries]

Most developing countries are in the demographic stage of early mortality, high birth rates and high rates of natural population increase. A characteristic of developing countries is that after World War ii, particularly since the 1960s fertility rates are on the decline, even though they still remain high. The fertility rate of developed countries fell from a 1950 rate of 22.9/1000 to 15/1000 in 1982, a decrease of 34.5%, whereas the fertility rate of developing countries hovered around 43/1000 between 1930-1950, 40.6/1000 during the 1960s and 33/1000 in 1982. Between 1950 and 1982 there was a decrease of 24.8%. But the main reason for this decrease is the decline in the last 20 years of the fertility rates of China and India, whose rates fell 34.9% from 1960-1980. Changes in fertility rates are influenced by the age structure of a country, as seen in the changing age structure of developing countries from 1960-80. For example, an increase in fertility rates was 1 consequence of an increase in the number of fertile women aged 15-45 from 42.6% in 1960 to 44.4% in 1980. Nevertheless, there exists some sort of birth control, whether conscious or subconscious, because the number of births per fertile woman is 3-4 fewer than the 14-15 children a woman can theoretically bear. The reason for changes in fertility rates in developing countries can be traced to marriage and family customs, and even more important, to social and economic factors. For example, Asian, African and Latin American cultures tend to support early marriages. When the fertility rates of developed and developing countries are looked at for a comparable period, then the rate of decrease for developing countries is slower than developed countries. But, if the comparison is made for a transitional period (i.e., industrialization), then the rate of decrease for developing countries is faster than for developed countries. Currently there are 25 developing countries that have attained a fertility rate of 25/1000 or lower, and 52 developing countries with a rate of 35/1000.     

An analysis of major proximate determinants of our fertility]

The sample survey of fertility, in Shanghai city and Shanxi and Hebei provinces of China in 1985, provided plentiful data about fertility, marriage, contraceptive usage and breastfeeding in terms of The World Fertility Survey Model. The data, along with Bongaarts' model, was utilized to analyze the relation between several proximate determinants and fertility changes. When comparing these three geographic areas, the largest difference was breastfeeding and the smallest one was non- contraceptive usage. It was very different from the results of The World Fertility Survey in developing countries in 1977. The difference of marriage indexes among three areas was close to that of breastfeeding; but for the effects on induction of fertility, marriage index surpassed breastfeeding. There were two models showing effective efficacy on fertility decline. One was the Shanghai model, in which much more effect came from marriage delay, accounting for 71%; another was the Hebei model, induction of fertility was caused by contraceptive usage, about 53%. Both indicated that the major factor affecting fertility decline was the family planning program. Otherwise, it seemed to indicate that different factors such as social, economic development indirectly decreased fertility through family planning programs.     

A preliminary inquiry into the problem of floating population in Shanghai city proper]

Shanghai's geographic location and socio-economic status make it the most attractive city for transient population from all over China. As a result of the country's rapid economic development and policy of "openness and domestic economy vitalization, "Shanghai has increased its economic, scientific, and cultural communication with other Chinese cities and foreign countries. The transient population has also increased greatly. Between January and June, 1984, the transient population reached 136,880,000. A study conducted at midnight on August 10, 1984 surveyed the transient population, with the following results: 1) Based on random sampling of data collected by the 46 Household Registration Committees, temporary visitors in Shanghai's residences totaled between 315,286 and 359,602 persons 2) Hotel residents: 125,000 3) People residing on boats: 19,000 4) Temporary residents in 10 suburban areas: 20,000 5) Other transient population consists of temporary factory and construction workers and farm produce vendors: 79,000 the total transient population at midnight on August 10, 1984 was 586,000 persons. 41.6% were visiting friends and relatives or came for medical assistance. 45.9% came from other provinces, 38.8% from local farm villages, 14.3% from nearby towns, and .93% from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan. The transient population has contributed to the development, productivity, and supply of commodities to Shanghai, and increased the city's communication with other provinces, but measures should be taken to properly manage it. To better manage this problem, the following steps must be taken: 1) Survey the population -- number, composition, distribution, sources, and activity patterns; 2) Classify by profession and centralize management; 3) Establish methods for proper distribution and diversification of market and entertaining areas; and 4) Improve roads, communication, and hotel facilities.     

An inquiry concerning the regularity of the spatial distribution of the population]

A general review of the relationship between the spatial distribution of the world's population and the distribution of the forces of production is presented from the Marxist perspective. The role of man as consumer and producer, as well as the influence of population density on production and distribution, is discussed.     

Preliminary inquiry into changes among women in mountainous regions with regard to marriage and birth]

Research objectives were in China study the changes in marriage, birth, and birth and birth control of mountain women in the last 43 years. The methodology used was random sampling. The sample was taken based on 1% of the agricultural population. The findings show that the unmarried rate of women is currently very low. Remarriage occurs because of the loss of a spouse rather than divorce. Early marriage occurs more frequently with mountain women since they have gradually strayed from the traditional belief of marrying only once. Within the last 40 years, the average age when one married has gradually increased. The percentage of early marriages has decreased and the percentage of late marriages has increased. Prior to 1975, the birth rate was high and now it has decreased. The decrease in the birth rate in 1960 was due to natural disasters; however, the current decreases in the birth rate are due to family planning. The major factors influencing marriage of mountain farmers and birth rate are traditional feudalistic influences, economic life, marriage laws, population policies, culture, and education. The survey was conducted from August 1982 to April 1983. There were 20,174 women ranging from the ages of 15-67 who participated. Findings show that the majority of the unmarried women are now under the age of 25. The percentage of 1st marriages under the legal age reached 2.89%. The average 1st marriage age of women in the 1940s was 19.03. Between 1980-1982 it was 22.30, an increase of 3.27 years since 1940. The percentage of 1st marriages under the age of 18 in the 1940s was 35.96%. It decreased to 2.28% in 1980. The rate of 1st marriages over the age of 23 before 1970 remained approximately 5%. It increased to 56.84% in the early 1980s. The traditional feudalistic influences have greatly affected marriage of mountain farmers. The ratio of more than 1 child per couple reached a rate of over 40%. The improvement of economic life also increased the aggregate birth rate. It reached 7 in the 1950s. With the emphasis no longer on marriage laws and population policies but on family planning, the early marriage rate decreased to below 15% from a previous rate of 40%.     

A preliminary inquiry into the interrelationship between population growth and economic development in Hong Kong]

Hong Kong includes Hong Kong Island, Kowloon, New Territory, and more than 230 islands. During World War ii, the population of Hong Kong decreased sharply, and the total number decreased to less than 600,000. Since the war ended in 1945, the population of Hong Kong has been increasing rapidly at an annual rate of 20%. By the end of 1981, its total population had increased to 5.2 million, including 1.25 million newly arrived immigrants. The average age is 24.8. People above the age 65 constitute only 6% of the total population. This shows that there is a sufficient supply of labor for local economic development. Because of continued economic growth, there has been a constant demand for more labor. Low wages provide an excellent condition for high-speed industrial development. An improved quality of professional workers and management personnel also contributes much to Hong Kong's industrial modernization. Because of high employment among the labor population, the general population earns income and spends a great deal, and this has created a rather active economy. General population growth trends include: 1) continued population growth will bring the total population to 6.3 million by the end of 1981, and the housing problem will become more serious; 2) a stable decline in the natural population growth rate will gradually change the population pattern to a low birth, low death, and low natural growth situation; and 3) improvements in science and technology, health care, and living conditions will reduce the death rate, and the average age will lengthen, and with the increase in old people, the demand for social welfare will also increase; and 4) there will be a shortage in experienced labor (professional technicians and high management personnel) in the 1980s. Facing the new situation, Hong Kong's economic structure needs reform, moving from a labor intensive enterprise to a capital-technological intensive enterprise. The market will be expanded and Hong Kong will earn more profit in China's mode rnization process.     

A comment on total fertility]

Total fertility rate (TFR) cannot be interpreted as the average number of children a couple will have, as the TFR is influenced by a number of factors. The most important factor is the fertility rate of each individual age group. A decline in these rates brings about a decline in the TFR, but other elements also play a part. Another important factor is the age at which women are getting married. The natural childbearing years run for 35 years, from age 15 through 49, but if women are not permitted to marry before age 23, this period will be reduced to 27 years, which would in turn lower the TFR. The number of children each couple is permitted to bear also has an influence on the TFR; the lower the number of children permitted, the lower the TFR. Another factor which affects the TFR is the number of women who, by law, cannot bear any more children. On a long-term basis, it does not appear that the TFR will drop to 1 by the end of this century; it will fall somewhere between 1 and 2. If it is maintained below 1.5-1.6 after 1985, and continues to gradually decline, China's population will be approximately 12 billion at the end of the 20th/Century, and the aging of the population will not become a serious problem.     

Endogenous fertility,endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of child policies

We examine the effects of child policies on both transitional dynamics and long-term demo-economic outcomes in an overlapping-generations neoclassical growth model à la Chakraborty (J Econ Theory 116(1):119–137, 2004) extended with endogenous fertility under the assumption of weak altruism towards children. The government invests in public health, and an individual’s survival probability at the end of youth depends on health expenditure. We show that multiple development regimes can exist. However, poverty or prosperity does not necessarily depend on the initial conditions, since they are the result of how a child policy is designed. A child tax, for example, can be used effectively to enable those economies that were entrapped in poverty to prosper. There is also a long-term welfare-maximising level of the child tax. We show that a child tax can be used to increase capital accumulation, escape from poverty and maximise long-term welfare also when (a) a public pay-as-you-go pension system is in place and (b) the government issues an amount of public debt. Interestingly, there also exists a couple child tax–health tax that can be used to find the second-best optimum optimorum. In addition, we show that results are robust to the inclusion of decisions regarding the child quantity–quality trade-off under the assumption of impure altruism. In particular, there exists a threshold value of the child tax below (resp. above) which child quality spending is unaffordable (resp. affordable) and different scenarios are in existence.     

Studying the fertility peak in Beijing]

Beijing, China, is experiencing a baby boom in response to 2 periods of large population increase in the mid-1950s and early 1960s. The average number of annual births was 220,000 in the first period and 269,000 in the second period. The causes of the large increase in the population in the first period were an improvement of health conditions which led to a reduction in mortality, immigration flow, and an erroneous population policy. The causes in the second period were recuperative fertility after three years of natural calamity and increased fertility among immigrants. Net migration had an important role in population growth these two periods; it also will have an important impact in future population changes. According to population projections, another baby boom is expected to occur before the end of the end of the century. During the up-coming baby boom period, 1.54 million births are expected, 190,000 per annum. The average increase in population size is expected to 127,000 per year. In the peak year, it may be around 200,000. Thanks to the family planning (FP) program the occurrence of the third baby boom in Beijing has been postponed and the duration will be shortened. From 1972 to 1982, 2.57 million births was averted due to FP, which drastically reduced pressure on the demand for resources and on the momentum of the next baby boom. Another baby booms is not expected during the early half of the 21st century, although an elevated birth rate within the range of normal fluctuation is predicted. The projection was based on the assumption of restricted migration and the enforcement of the FP program. The realization of the projected population will depend on deferred marriage, deferred child-bearing, prolonged birth spacing, the prevention of high parity fertility, the maintenance of the current population policy, and control over the reproductive behavior of the new migrant population.     

Characteristics of fertility transition in China]

Since 1949 and in particular the 1970s, China's fertility rate has undergone rapid and continuous change. This is a direct reflection of China's success in population control. The decline in China's fertility rate regulated the speed of population growth, altered the population structure, and brought population development to be in line with economic development. Data used in this article are from the National 1/1000 Random Sample of Fertility (1982), the 10% Sample of the 1982 Population Census, 1981, 1983 and 1984 statistical yearbooks, and other data from the Statistics Bureau. China's fertility rate dropped an annual average of 2.5/1000 from 1950-81. However, this time, the fertility rate fluctuated, depending on political, social and economic factors. As the nation prospered, the fertility rate remained stable and high; as China suffered severe economic losses, the fertility rate dropped. A steady decline was evident beginning in 1970 as the government began to propagandize the merits of smaller families. Between 1971-83 the average yearly rate of growth was 1.6%. The number of years a woman was fertile was similar for both urban and rural women in 1964 and 1981; moreover, in 1981 both groups showed a sharp drop in fertility between the ages of 27-35. The 1 child rate for urban women rose from 21.9% in 1964 to 86.6% in 1981. Urban women tend to be more receptive to late marriage, late births, and fewer children. This change in the 1 child rate contributed to the drop in the birth rate of 31.1/1000 in 1964 to 20.9/1000 in 1981.     

World fertility and the women's situation]

In 1981, total number of childbearing women in the world reached 9.8 hundred million. Their socioeconomic status and fertility level are very important data for the study of women's liberation and population control. Facing limited natural resources and a constant growing demand, many nations are studying how to control the population growth and achieve a "zero population growth." In nations with a high GNP, such as Switzerland, West Germany, and France, fertility is low. On the contrary, countries in central and south Asia and most parts of Africa are the poorest economically, and their fertility rate has remained very high. Another factor which is related to the fertility level is the degree of women's participation in the labor market. In Europe and North America, the percentage of women's participation in economic activities is high, and fertility is low. In Latin America and Africa, fertility is high, and the percentage of women's participation in economic labor is low. From the above, we may conclude that promotion of women's participation in the labor market and better employment conditions will reduce fertility. Another 2 factors related to fertility are marriage age and birth control rate. Late marriage and the extensive use of birth control measures are effective methods for reducing fertility. All the above mentioned factors are closely related to the woman's educational background. If women receive a better education and find better employment opportunities, delay their marriage age, and take birth control measures, fertility will be reduced and the population growth will be under control.     

[An inquiry concerning the birth model].]

The author modifies the parity progression model of fertility by using the parity progression ratio as a control indicator of fertility. A regression equation is used to calculate the total fertility rate for China at parity one.