Why Does Presidential Popularity Decline? A Test of the Expectation/Disillusion Theory

According to the "expectation/disillusion" interpretation ofthe decline of presidential popularity over time, popularitydeclines as unrealistically high expectations of presidentialperformance inevitably give way to more realistic assessments.This paper puts that interpretation and several specific aspectsof it to the test through analysis of data from a series ofnationwide polls conducted between 1977 and 1979.     

The Long Term Effect of Parental Divorce:

The present study examined the effects of a subject's sex, level of religiosity, and marital history of family origin on the development on marital role expectations in a sample of 80 college students. The results indicated that the marital roles expectations were a result of an interaction of the three variables examined. While it has been proposed that parental divorce leads to the development of "inappropriate" marital role expectations, the present study failed to support this conclusion. It appears that marital role development is the result of a complex interaction of a number of variables and not as easily explained as some would suggest. The differential influence of religiosity on the development of marital role expectation is discussed with implications for further research. The "role-model" rationale of the transmission of marital instability is discussed in light of these results.     

Broadening the Concept of Expectations in Public Relations

Expectations have been connected to many central concepts of public relations research, yet definitions of what is meant by expectations are lacking. This article aims to broaden the understanding of expectations by taking into account their multidimensional nature, suggesting that there are several explanations to expectations depending on what the expectation is based on. We suggest that, in organizational context, expectations are two-fold assessments of what is considered good or desirable (expectation tone ranging from positive to negative) and the confidence placed in the organization (organization-specific context ranging from high to low confidence). As a result of the conceptual review with theoretical input from areas outside the scope of public relations, the article presents the Expectation Grid, where expectations are acknowledged as continuums of tone and context.     

Sociopolitical Development and Vocational Expectations Among Lower Socioeconomic Status Adolescents of Color

The well‐documented aspiration‐expectation gap refers to lower socioeconomic status (SES) adolescents of color expecting to attain occupations with lower pay and status than the occupations to which they aspire. Sociopolitical inequity, such as structural racism and asymmetrical access to resources, may explain this gap. This article examines the capacity to cope with sociopolitical inequity (i.e., sociopolitical development) and its relationship to vocational expectations among this population. Analyses revealed that sociopolitical development was associated with higher vocational expectations and may contribute to reducing the vocational aspiration‐expectation gap among lower SES adolescents of color. Furthermore, career counseling, guidance, and psychosocial interventions may be augmented by incorporating sociopolitical development.     

Advertising unreasonable expectations: Nanny ads on Craigslist

ABSTRACT

Research has shown that while some domestic workers in the United States work in situations that are fair and decent, many others face conditions of abuse, degradation, and/or exploitation. These conditions are commonly seen as a “hidden” aspect of domestic work. This article asks if these conditions are really as hidden as is commonly assumed. Through a content analysis of nanny ads on Craigslist, we explore whether employers are willing to advertise their expectation that nannies will work under one of three unreasonable conditions: i.e., for low pay, long daily hours, and/or long weekly hours. Overall, we find that of the ads that specify how much pay a nanny is expected to work for as well as how long she is expected to work, many contain unreasonable expectations. By looking at how these expectations are expressed in these ads, we can see that these unreasonable expectations are generally presented in a matter-of-fact manner. This suggests that these employers do not find these expectations to be that remarkable, notwithstanding how unreasonable they are.     

Social Support,Unfulfilled Expectations,and Affective Well‐being on Return to Employment

We conducted a longitudinal study to investigate how social support from the partner is related to mothers' affective well‐being during their return to employment after maternity leave and whether expectations of that support have an additional impact. We differentiated four forms of support and their respective expectation discrepancies: emotional, instrumental, informational, and companionship. Further, we included the impact of meeting specific support expectations. A convenience sample of 288 women filled out questionnaires 2 weeks before reentry and then 1 month and 2 months afterward. Social support was associated with well‐being, with emotional support having the strongest positive impact. Informational and instrumental support either were not related or were negatively related to affective well‐being. Expectations had an additional influence but were inconsistently associated with affect. They became more important over time.     

Barack Obama,the New Politics of Race,and Classed Constructions of Racial Blackness

Based upon an analysis of the print and online media, this article examines the discourse of the “new politics of race” between 2007 and 2014. Part of the politics of postracialism, the new race politics first emerged as a set of guidelines for candidate Barack Obama, concerning how he should and should not handle racial matters if he hoped to win the presidency. In a larger sense, however, the new race politics is a class‐specific discourse of racial color blindness, one which positions the black upper middle class as a 21st‐century model minority, racialized in contradistinction to the black poor.     

Expectation changes and team characteristics in a participatory design process

A human factors specialist researched the expectations of a culturally and professionally diverse team throughout a year long participatory design process of a large processing facility. For a deeper understanding of high-level team expectations and characteristics, the specialist collected data and information through in-situ ethnography and traditional case study methods, personal interviews, and a questionnaire that included a likert scale rating for expectation levels. Results found that expectation levels rated extremely satisfied for individual team members and the overall team itself before and during the participatory process. In contrast, expectations for upper management from the team were satisfied before the participatory process, but changed to uncertain, to unsatisfied, to extremely unsatisfied during the process. Additionally, the participatory design team exhibited high-level team characteristics to include honesty, competence, commitment, communication, creativity, and clear expectations.     

Expectations of Career Counseling and Their Effect on Client Satisfaction

Although there has been growing attention to clients' expectations of career counseling, more research is necessary to clarify the role of these expectations in shaping client satisfaction at the end of the intervention. On the basis of expectation confirmation theory, this study examined the indirect effect of clients' initial expectations on overall satisfaction through the perceived performance and final confirmation of expectations. We also explored whether this indirect effect is dependent on counselors' initial expectations. Longitudinal data were collected on 83 counselor-client dyads involved in a career counseling intervention in northeast Italy. Results confirmed that clients' initial expectations predicted overall satisfaction with the intervention through the subsequent mediation of perceived performance and confirmation of clients' expectations. The moderating role of the counselors' initial expectations was not confirmed. These findings imply that career counselors should invest their efforts in managing clients' expectations.     

The Nature of Infants' Visual Expectations for Event Content

Recent studies have revealed that young infants can form expectations for the spatial location of future visual events. Four experiments examined whether 3‐month‐old infants also form expectations for content features of events, defined as an invariant color combination. Infants viewed a spatially alternating (left–right) sequence of varying pictures in which pictures on one side (invariant colors) always appeared with the same color combination (e.g., red/green), while on the other side (varied colors) the pictures appeared with any of 4 possible color combinations. Results indicated that infants formed a content expectation for the invariant color combination on the invariant side, such that their anticipatory responding was disrupted by a novel color combination event and by a novel pattern event. A dissociation between reactive and anticipatory eye movements in their sensitivity to the content manipulation suggests that infants' expectations for spatial and content information engage somewhat different processes.     

THE MAN IN THE TEFLON SUIT?: THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONNECTION, POLITICAL DRAMA, AND POPULAR SUPPORT IN THE REAGAN PRESIDENCY

An examination of public support during the presidency of RonaldReagan reveals a unique pattern. The major features includetwo instances of rapidly declining support followed by historicallyunprecedented and sustained recoveries. The recovery of supportis particularly surprising given that the literature of theearly 1980s emphasizes the irrecoverable erosion of public supportand a resulting "no win" presidency. In this sense, the patternof public support from 1981 to 1987 raises a significant questionabout the "no win" presidency. Does the Reagan case contradictrecent assertions about the inability of modern presidents tomaintain public support or is Reagan an exception that "provesthe rule"? To answer this question, the analysis is divided into five parts.The first examines the literature and shows that there is astriking uniformity in contemporary accounts of Reagan's publicsupport. These explanations discount the importance of conditionsin the environment and emphasize that Reagan's public supportis based upon a mixture of luck, personality, and politicaldrama. Part two defines political drama and examines its usefrom 1981 to 1987. In part three, we develop a methodology forincorporating political drama into a general model of publicsupport for Reagan. Part four estimates the model and uses theresults to assess the relative impact of the economy and politicaldrama on public support for Reagan. These results are used inthe final section to evaluate the specific explanations of Reagan'spublic support and to reflect upon the competing general explanationsfound in the literature.     

Anticipating the “Ball and Chain”? Reciprocal Associations Between Marital Expectations and Delinquency

Marriage has been identified as a mechanism that may explain decreased delinquency among young adults, but whereas marriage is increasingly delayed, crime continues to decrease across the transition to adulthood. Most adolescents and young adults expect to marry one day, and these expectations may suppress delinquency. Conversely, increased delinquency may also predict decreased marital expectations. Longitudinal data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 cohort (N = 7,057), a sample of youth who were aged 12 to 17 years in 1997, were used to examine the reciprocal association between an expressed expectation to marry soon and participation in delinquent behavior. Results from an autoregressive cross‐lagged structural equation model suggested that greater expectations to marry were significantly associated with less delinquent activity 1 year later. Greater delinquent activity was not significantly associated with subsequent marital expectations. Youth with the greatest expectations to marry may temper their behavior even before vows are taken.     

Deconstructing Family Time: From Ideology to Lived Experience

“Family time” is often uncritically accepted as a uniform, coherent concept and a universally desirable goal. In order to fully understand the meaning of family time in experience, interviews were conducted with parents in 17 dual‐earner and 11 single‐parent families, and 8 observation episodes were done with 4‐ and 5‐year‐old children in childcare. What emerged was a dramatic discordance between the expectations and experiences of family time. Although families have held on to an expectation of a positive experience of togetherness, they are typically left with a feeling that there is never enough, that it is in the service of children, and that they are duty‐bound by it. There is a structural contradiction between the ideals and experience of family time that is typically expressed through disillusionment and guilt.     

Gender Differences in Expectations Predictive of Volunteer Experience Among Older Chinese Professionals in Hong Kong

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to examine gender differences in expectations predictive of volunteer experience. Volunteering is one pathway to remaining actively engaged in later life and active engagement is considered one of the cornerstones of successful aging. The global feminization of aging underscores the need to consider gender differences when exploring factors associated with volunteerism. There is also a growing international interest in volunteerism among older adults. A sample of 438 Chinese professionals in Hong Kong ages 45-79, including retired (36.3%) and employed (63.7%), were asked about their expectations for volunteer work. Gender was evenly distributed, with 49.8% male and 50.2% female. Forty-three percent (43%) had volunteer experience. A multivariate logistic regression model was fit to sub-samples by gender, and gender differences emerged. For males, married and the expectation to utilize own skills were associated with volunteer experience. For females, self-rated health, retired, and the expectation to meet the needs of others were associated with volunteer experience. These results suggest that gender differences in expectations may influence volunteer activity.     

A Cross‐Cultural Examination of the Disjuncture Between Aspirations and Expectations/Perceived Outcomes: Strain and Academic Deviance in the United States and Japan

Using comparable self‐reported survey data collected among college students in the United States (n = 502) and Japan (n = 441), this study examines a paradox of higher academic deviance among otherwise more conforming Japanese youth while revisiting the debate concerning the disjuncture between aspirations and expectations/perceived outcomes in Agnew's general strain theory (GST). Confirming the paradox, our results indicate that Japanese students are significantly more deviant academically than American students. However, contrary to the expectation of GST, but in support of past empirical studies, the higher academic deviance among the Japanese, as compared to Americans, is explained by their lower aspirations, irrespective of the levels of expectations/perceived outcomes     

MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS,EXPECTATIONS, AND INFORMATION RIGIDITIES

This paper contributes to the literature by assessing expectation effects from monetary policy for G7 economies. We rely on expectation data from Consensus Economics and a panel vector autoregression framework, which accounts for international spillovers and time‐variation. We analyze whether monetary policy has changed the degree of information rigidity after the emergence of the subprime crisis and estimate effects of interest rate changes on expectations, disagreements, and forecast errors. We find strong evidence for information rigidities and identify higher forecast errors by professionals after monetary policy shocks. Our results suggest that the international transmission of monetary policy shocks introduces noisy information and partly increases disagreement among forecasters. (JEL E31, E52)     

Purchase expectations and the demand for consumer durables

This article reviews the use of buying intentions anil purchase expectations data in consumer surveys and forecasts of the likely level of consumer demand. It notes the decline in their use and the disappointing experience where attempts have been made to use such information in time series forecasts. The stronger cross-sectional predictive performance is discussed and it is argued that this is of relevance to researchers and forecasters. Suggestions are made as to ways in which purchase expectations data might he more effectively collected and used in future.     

Correlated factors with filial piety expectations of older Koreans and Korean-Americans

ABSTRACT

Changing filial piety expectations have been examined from the viewpoint of younger generations. However, research on older adults’ perspective of this cultural phenomenon is virtually absent from the empirical literature. In an effort to address the changing family life circumstances of Korean and Korean-American families, this study explores older adults’ filial expectations from their own children and correlated factors associated with the expectation. The cross-sectional survey study with 449 older adults found that the majority of respondents still believe that adult children should assume responsibility for the care of their parents. Several factors such as age, education, income, living arrangements, self-rated health, year of immigration, and social support were significantly correlated with filial expectations among older Korean-Americans. Only satisfaction with social support received from family and friends was significantly related to older Koreans’ expectations. Implications for social work practice are discussed and further research directions are suggested.     

From Economic Gains to Social Losses

This paper analyzes how stories shaped treasurers’ expectations in municipal swap activities and contributes to the sociological debate on the mechanisms of expectation formation. Employing a deductive variant of process tracing, it synthesizes the literature on expectations in economic decision making with the literature on the diffusion of “ideas,” “myths,” and “fashions” in organization theory and management studies. The swap story has spread since the mid-1990s among German municipalities. At the heart of this story is the replacement of traditional borrowing with active portfolio optimization; financial instruments known as swaps play a leading role. This paper examines how stories shape expectations. Specifically, it delves into how the swap story, as a solution to the financial woes of local governments, shaped these governments’ expectations despite the uncertainty resulting from the instruments’ complexity. We argue that the effect of stories on expectations depends on timing. Expectations at an early stage are shaped by economic analyses to reduce uncertainty, while expectations at a later stage are primarily shaped by societal pressures and an established trend. These two distinct mechanisms produce expectations related to economic and social consequences, respectively. Selecting four typical cases, our analysis confirms that stories affected the formation of treasurers’ expectations regarding the use of swaps through these different mechanisms.