What is Most Important: Social Factors, Health Selection, and Adolescent Educational Achievement

This paper explores the relative importance of social factors and health measures in predicting educational achievement in early and late adolescence using population-based administrative data. The sample was made up of 41,943 children born in Manitoba, Canada between 1982 and 1989 and remaining in the province until age 18. Multilevel modeling nests each individual (level 1) within a family (level 2) residing within a neighborhood (level 3). Most important in predicting adolescent achievement were a broad socioeconomic status index (and a narrower measure of household income), being on social assistance, mother’s age at first birth, gender, residential mobility, the presence of ADHD/Conduct disorders, and measures of family functioning (child taken into care or offered protection services and family structure history). Family size, birth order, and newborn characteristics (birthweight, APGAR, gestational age) were statistically significant but of little importance in explaining the outcomes. Both examining regression coefficients and systematically omitting variables showed social factors (often emphasized by epidemiologists) to have markedly greater effects than the combination of health measures (often stressed by economists) in predicting achievement. However, mental health in childhood is identified as among the important predictors. Record linkage across population datasets from health, education, and family services ministries allowed: tracking health and educational attainment at different times in a child’s life, following a large number of cases across childhood, considerable sensitivity testing, controlling for unmeasured family and neighborhood effects, generating an extensive list of predictors, estimating effect sizes, and comparing Manitoba results with those of well-known American studies.     

中国老年人储蓄对家庭消费的影响 ——基于CHARLS面板数据的分析

在我国快速老龄化和居民储蓄率居高不下的背景下,结合老年人储蓄偏好和消费特点,构建家庭消费计量分析模型,文章利用CHARLS2011、2013、2015年微观跟踪调查数据,采用工具变量—随机效应模型划分年龄层次和消费类别逐级估计,重点考察老年人储蓄对其家庭消费的影响。研究表明,老年人储蓄水平越高,对家庭消费的促进能力就越强;分城乡来看,农村老年人储蓄对家庭消费的贡献更大;按年龄组别来看,中、低龄老年人储蓄对家庭消费的影响显著,高龄老年人储蓄对家庭消费的影响不显著;按消费类别看,老年人储蓄偏重于家庭基本生活、教育文化、健康等刚性消费支出,城镇和农村老年人储蓄对不同消费类别影响的差异主要表现在日常支出、医疗保健和耐用消费品等方面。此外,研究还发现,老年人拥有房产对家庭消费具有非常明显的提振作用,家庭收入和老年人借贷对家庭消费的贡献显著。     

挤入还是挤出:社会保障对子女经济供养老人的影响——关于医疗保障与家庭经济供养行为

社会保障对子女经济供养老人的影响一直是学术界关注的热点问题。基于实地调研数据,控制其他变量基础上,重点分析社会保障对子女经济供养老人的影响,研究结果显示,社会保障总体上对子女经济供养老人的水平具有挤入效应,老年人获得社会保障总体上将提高子女对其经济供养水平。而解释机制分析则发现,原因在于医疗保障释放了老年人的医疗卫生服务需求,进而增加了相应支出,并最终导致子女增加了经济供养支出。进一步分析发现了该效应的群体差异性,而该效应实质是医疗卫生资源和服务分配的阶层性差异,根源在于现行医疗卫生制度存在的各种弊病。在研究结论基础上,提出了建立公平的健康保障与福利改进体系等思考。     

Household dynamics and fuelwood consumption in developing countries: a cross-national analysis

Previous research has suggested a link between household dynamics (i.e., average household size and number of households) and environmental impacts at the national level. Building on this work, we empirically test the relationship between household dynamics and fuelwood consumption, which has been implicated in anthropogenic threats to biodiversity. We focus our analysis on developing countries (where fuelwood is an important energy source). Our results show that nations with smaller average households consume more fuelwood per capita. This finding indicates that the household economies of scale are, indeed, associated with the consumption of fuelwood. In addition, we found that number of households is a better predictor of total fuelwood consumption than average household size suggesting a greater relative contribution to consumption levels. Thus, insofar as declining average household sizes result in increased number of households and higher per capita consumption, this trend may be a signal of serious threats to biodiversity and resource conservation. We also found further support for the ??energy ladder?? hypothesis that economic development reduces demand for traditional fuels.     

Gender differences in activity of daily living of the elderly in rural China: evidence from Chaohu

Using data from a sample survey, Well-being of the elderly in Anhui province, China, this paper studies the effects of health, economic and family factors on the activities of daily living (ADLs) as measures of disability for elderly men and women. The objective is to explore reasons for gender differences in ADLs in rural China. Our results suggest that higher incidence rates of chronic diseases, lower cognitive ability, as well as heavier household and daily care burdens of females, are the main factors leading to a higher prevalence of ADL disability for the female elderly.     

中国老年人口的健康状况、福利需求与前景

利用中国2005年1%人口抽样调查资料对老年人口身体健康状况进行分析,并利用联合国人口预测资料,对2050年以前的中国老年人口身体健康状况及其对养老机构床位数需求进行预测。结果表明,2005年中国老年人口中"不能正常工作或生活不能自理"者占15.02%,规模达2 169万人。不同性别、年龄与城乡的老年人口的身体健康状况之间存在明显的差异,人口老龄化与家庭养老功能急剧弱化使得未来中国需要入住养老机构的老年人数量急剧增加。     

Aging of population and elderly care in Sri Lanka

"The main purpose of this paper is...to examine the trends [and] characteristics of the elderly population [in Sri Lanka] and to inquire into the status of elderly support and care.... There is considerable evidence to show that [the] mechanisms of family support and care of the elderly have weakened. There is an increasing demand for institutional support by the elderly. This paper attempts to identify some of the underlying reasons that have prompted the elderly to make the decision to move out of the family kinship network and seek institutional support."     

The effects of migrant remittances on population–environment dynamics in migrant origin areas: international migration, fertility, and consumption in highland Guatemala

International migration impacts origin regions in many ways. As examples, remittances from distant migrants may alter consumption patterns within sending communities, while exposure to different cultural norms may alter other behaviors. This paper combines these insights to offer a unique lens on migration’s environmental impact. From an environmental perspective, we ask the following question: is the likely rise in consumption brought about by remittances counterbalanced by a reduction in fertility in migrant households following exposure to lower fertility cultures? Based on ethnographic case studies in two western highland Guatemalan communities, we argue that the near-term rise in consumption due to remittances is not counterbalanced by rapid decline in migrant household fertility. However, over time, the environmental cost of consumption may be mitigated at the community level through diffusion of contraception and family planning norms yielding lower family size.     

我国高龄老人照料资源分布及照料满足感研究

高龄老人是一个对照料需求更高的群体,目前,高龄老人的照料完全满足感并不高。在居家养老建设不断加快的背景下,高龄老人的照料资源仍然集中在家庭内部,他们对社会服务的利用率极低;高龄老人的年龄、健康状况、经济状况、所在城乡以及照料者类别及其意愿对照料满足感的影响较大。政府及社会在提升高龄老人照料满足感的过程中,要科学规划居家养老服务,关注贫困、认知能力差和空巢高龄老人群体,重视家庭代际和谐建设,加快专业社工队伍发展,加强国际交流。     

子女结构对农村养老中的资源交换机制的影响

本文采用2013年“中国健康与养老追踪调查”中甘肃和安徽两省追踪调查数据,运用广义线性模型、 logistic回归模型等分析方法,结合代际支持动机理论和能力理论,考察子女结构对农村养老中的资源交换机制的影响。结果发现：不管是经济支持还是情感支持,长子女和幼子女之间,儿子和女儿之间都存在分工关系和替代关系,以满足老年人的各项需求。子女的孩次、性别均对代际资源交换存在显著影响,孙子女的性别和数量对年轻一代和年老一代的代际动机产生显著影响,其中居住距离、外出务工和父母照料孙子女是不可忽略的中间因素。     

Gender Differences in Activity of Daily Living of the Elderly in Rural China: Evidence from Chaohu

ABSTRACT

Using data from a sample survey, “Well-being of the elderly in Anhui province, China,” this paper studies the effects of health, economic and family factors on the activities of daily living (ADLs) as measures of disability for elderly men and women. The objective is to explore reasons for gender differences in ADLs in rural China. Our results suggest that higher incidence rates of chronic diseases, lower cognitive ability, as well as heavier household and daily care burdens of females, are the main factors leading to a higher prevalence of ADL disability for the female elderly.     

Direct Valuation of Personal Care by Households

This paper valued the quantity of child, sick, and elderly care provided by households using a new, direct measure. Such measures add to the literature that estimates the size of the contribution of non-market work by household members, particularly women, and to literature about valuation of childcare. This production remains unvalued in standard national income accounts. Traditional attempts to quantify this care multiplied care-giver hours by a wage rate, a method that suffers from several drawbacks, including omitting the contributions of anything but labor, the inability to handle joint production, and the use of an arbitrary wage rate. This study avoided these problems by valuing the amount of care with its market price based on data from a small urban area. The mean value was $3,547 annually (97 percent of it childcare) for all sample households and $9,610 for those providing care. The results afforded evidence of scale economies in parental childcare and quantified care furnished by different kinds of providers.     

老年社会贫困影响因素的定量和定性分析

中国的社会转型和家庭变迁一方面对传统家庭的养老功能提出挑战,另一方面,由于社会养老制度的缺失或不完善,也由于家庭中老年人口比例的增加,老人对家庭养老的需求依旧十分强烈。利用定量和定性数据,探讨在家庭变迁和公共福利不足背景下老年社会贫困(衡量为健康欠佳、精神慰藉不足)的发生率和发生概率。模型分析结果显示,公共福利的有无、家庭形式和居住安排、子女数量和性别、子女的经济支持都作用于自评的健康水平和精神慰藉。因此,改善公共支持及服务体系、且将公共福利真正落到实处将有助于提高老人的社会福利。     

中老年家庭灾难性医疗支出的测度及影响因素 ——基于CHARLS数据的实证

基于2011-2015年三期平衡面板数据,对中老年家庭的灾难性医疗支出进行测度并分析其影响因素。研究发现:我国中老年家庭灾难性医疗支出发生率在考察期内进一步扩大,差距也进一步上升。以家庭可支付能力的40%为灾难性医疗支出的界定标准,则在2015年其发生率依然高达25.4%,平均差距为0.069,相对差距为0.272。引入安德森医疗服务利用模型对影响因素进行分析,结果显示家中有住院、门诊及残障人员更容易发生灾难性医疗支出,经济状况对灾难性性医疗支出发生起着显著作用,总体而言灾难性医疗支出具有"亲贫"效应,越是贫困的家庭越容易发生灾难性医疗支出。据此,文章提出应该采取分类管理的措施,通过发放免费医疗服务券、强化医疗费用控制等政策建议来切实降低灾难性医疗支出的发生。     

Gender differences in caregiving: a case in Chinese Canadian caregivers

This study examines the gender differences in Chinese- Canadian family caregivers providing care to elderly Chinese care receivers. A random sample of 339 Chinese-Canadian caregivers for elderly care receivers completed a telephone survey. Most of the Chinese family caregivers were females. No major gender differences were reported in the amount and types of caregiving tasks. The level of caregiving burden and predictors were generally similar for both gender groups. Contrary to common belief that sons and daughters-in-law are the key family caregivers in the Chinese culture, the daughters played a more important role in family caregiving. In addition to providing support and services to Chinese female caregivers, strategies to enhance Chinese males' involvement in family caregiving are needed and discussed in the paper.     

农村家庭子女养老行为的示范作用研究

西安交通大学人口与发展研究所于2001年5月在安徽省巢湖市农村地区进行了"安徽老年人生活状况"抽样问卷调查,并在2003年11月、2006年12月、2009年6月进行了三次跟踪调查。利用调查数据,对孝文化观念下的农村家庭中子女养老行为之间的相互影响进行实证研究。研究发现,兄弟姐妹间的养老行为存在示范作用,并对老年人获得子女供养的状况有重要影响。结果表明,无论经济支持还是生活照料,兄弟姐妹分担程度越高,子女个体越有可能提高对老年父母的支持;而子女的分担程度越高,老年父母获得的经济支持和生活照料越多。     

人口流动、老龄化对农村居民消费的影响

利用中国1%人口抽样调查和人口普查的省域数据,从四个截面考察人口外流、农村人口老龄化对农村居民消费的影响,研究结果发现,农村人口老龄化对农村居民消费倾向具有显著的正向影响,农村老年人口的生活来源与健康状况是其中的影响因素;人口流动通过直接与间接效应对农村居民消费也表现出显著的正向影响。人口外流与老龄化均不同程度刺激、助长了农村居民消费。完善农村的社会养老及医疗保障体系、适度发展老年产业、规范和鼓励农村人口流动为现时期应对农村人口老龄化和促进农村居民消费提供了重要切入点。     

遗产动机对中国老年家庭储蓄率的影响

中国人口老龄化问题日益凸显,老年家庭储蓄率居高不下,标准生命周期假说理论已无法解释。基于中国家庭金融调查数据,从遗产动机视角分析老年家庭高储蓄率现象。研究结果表明,中国老年家庭遗产动机显著提升家庭储蓄率,遗产动机使得老年家庭储蓄率水平显著提高5%—10%左右。进一步研究发现,相比较于城市家庭,遗产动机对农村家庭储蓄影响显著;相对于高等财富家庭而言,遗产动机显著促进中低财富家庭储蓄率水平,说明“未富先老”使得老年家庭有更强的遗产动机进行储蓄;对于家庭不同生活状况的子女,遗产动机显著提升子女体制外工作和子女教育水平低的老年家庭储蓄率,表明中国老年家庭利他主义的遗产动机较强。本文为理解中国老年家庭的高储蓄提供了新的视角,可以为政府相关部门制定政策提供参考。     

Elderly parent health and the migration decisions of adult children: Evidence from rural China

Recent research has shown that participation in migrant labor markets has led to substantial increases in income for families in rural China. This article addresses the question of how participation is affected by elderly parent health. We find that younger adults are less likely to work as migrants when a parent is ill. Poor health of an elderly parent has less impact on the probability of employment as a migrant when an adult child has siblings who may be available to provide care. We also highlight the potential importance of including information on nonresident family members when studying how parent illness and elder care requirements influence the labor supply decisions of adult children.