The impacts of apportionment method,and legal and illegal immigration,on Congressional apportionment in the year 2000

This paper first discusses two methods for apportioning the US House of Representatives, Equal Proportions and Major Fractions. The method of Equal Proportions will be used in the 2000 apportionment, but it is biased in favor of smaller states. The method of Major Fractions is a mathematically unbiased method, but will not be used in 2000. However, we show that apportionments for 2000 would not differ much according to these two methods. We also consider different definitions of the apportionment population, mainly based on including or excluding legal and illegal immigrants from the apportionment process. We show that the apportionment results for 2000 will not differ if illegal immigrants who entered the USA in the 1990s are kept in, or removed from, the apportionment population. But the apportionment results will differ in a major way if all persons immigrating to the USA in the 1990s are kept in, or removed.     

An analysis of net immigration in census coverage evaluation

National surveys monitored growth in the foreign-born population for the 1980s, especially net undocumented migration's continuing role, but the 1990 census portrayed an even larger foreign-born population than these surveys. Undercoverage in 1990 could have been higher than initially presented because preliminary studies may have insufficiently accounted for decadal net immigration. Assumptions intended to maintain a high undocumented undercount performed poorly when census counts of foreign-born residents became known. Any point estimate for net undocumented migration, calculated as a residual, is likely to be biased by assumptions and data gaps for components of calculating net legal immigration, especially in the direction of underestimation. A reasonable statement is that at least 2.1–2.4 million undocumented residents were enumerated in the 1990 census. The number of unenumerated undocumented residents may easily have ranged between 0.5 million and 3.0 million, and a narrower range of 1 million to 2 million is plausible. Despite the importance of undocumented migration measurement for census evaluation and policy purposes, differences among various undocumented estimates are more likely to stem from discrepancies in universe, reference dates, or individual judgment, rather than analytic refinement. Better measurement of the foreignborn population or its census coverage would aid in setting upper limits on net undocumented migration.     

Explaining trends in UK immigration

Since the 1970s Britain has gone from being a country of net emigration to one of net immigration, with a trend increase in immigration of more than 100,000 per year. This paper represents the first attempt to model the variations in net migration for British and for foreign citizens, across countries and over time. A simple economic model, which includes the selection effects of differing income distributions at home and abroad, largely accounts for the variations in the data. The results suggest that although improved economic performance in the UK relative to overseas has tended to increase immigration, rising UK inequality has had an even larger effect. Immigration policies at home and abroad have also increased net immigration, particularly in the 1990s.

The political economy of social exclusion, with implications for immigration policy

Minorities such as ethnic and immigration groups have often been subject to exclusion through labor market discrimination, residential and employment segregation policies, business ownership regulations, restrictions on political participation, access to public services, and more. This paper studies the dynamics of minority exclusion. From the viewpoint of the dominant majority, the exclusion decision balances the motive to redistribute income in its favor and the interest in avoiding potential civic unrest or even violent confrontation with the minority. The analysis also has implications for immigration policies, suggesting that they have to take this group dynamics into account.

The effect of immigration on the labor market performance of native-born workers: some evidence for Spain

This paper provides an approximation to the labor market effects of immigrants in Spain, a country where labor market institutions and immigration policy exhibit some peculiarities, during the second half of the 1990s, the period in which immigration flows accelerated. By using alternative data sets, we estimate both the impact of legal and total immigration flows on the employment rates and wages of native workers, accounting for the possible occupational and geographical mobility of immigrants and native-born workers. Using different samples and estimation procedures, we have not found a significant negative effect of immigration on either the employment rates or wages of native workers.

An analysis of public opinion toward undocumented immigration

Public opinion toward illegal migration to the United States varies considerably across different segments of the population, but little is known about why some individuals hold more liberal attitudes than others. Several hypotheses are scattered throughout the research literature, but they have not been brought together in one place and tested using a common data set. Nor have the limited tests been satisfactory from a methodological standpoint. Instead of using multiple regression, typically analysts have relied on cross-tabulations of the data. This paper tests five hypotheses about attitudes toward illegal immigration and undocumented migrants using public opinion data from southern California. Only weak support is found for a labor market competition hypothesis. There is firmer evidence for hypotheses relating to cultural affinity between respondents and undocumented migrants and to the role of education. Respondents' evaluations of tangible costs and benefits to themselves also influence their assessments of illegal immigration. Finally, the results of this analysis provide additional support for a symbolic politics model of opinion formation when the model is extended to the issue of undocumented migration to the United States.     

Evaluating the local impacts of recent immigration to California: Realism versus racism

Although past migration was often viewed with suspicion the implicit assumption was that new migrants would fill the jobs in the growing cities and contribute to the national wealth. There are those who still subscribe to the view that continuing migration will increase national wealth, indeed that new migrants are the work horses of prosperity. There is another view however, which focuses on the local impacts of migration. This view suggests that the migrations of the late twentieth century are in a different context and create substantial burdens on local communities and states. It may be too, that the mass migrations of the late twentieth century will lead to a new pattern of social exclusion, polarization and a new ethnic under-class. The analysis of recent migration in California documents the extent to which that migration is made up of very low skill, low income, and dependent groups and has the potential to create significant local dependency burdens.     

Too many migrants, too few services: a model of decision-making on immigration and integration with cultural distance

We model the political demand for immigrants as a trade-off that native voters face between having services, assumed to be produced only by unskilled and nonassimilated immigrants, and experiencing disutility due to the immigrant workers having a culture different from the native culture. Immigrants decide whether to integrate into the native culture. We show that if services are priced according to per unit costs, the market demand for immigrants will exceed the political demand. Market forces then lead to higher services prices, implying that the initially allowed number of immigrants is ‘politically’ too large.

Disagreement over the immigration of low-income earners in a welfare state

This paper studies natives’ economically motivated preferences over different levels of immigration of low-income earners. Immigration affects natives through both intra- and intergenerational redistribution programmes and in the labour market. Our analysis suggests, in a welfare state that looks after the poor and the aged, economic motivation does not necessarily lead a native to have an extreme opinion on the preferable level of immigration, although it causes disagreement among natives. We find, regardless of parameter values, high-income earners prefer at least as much immigration as low-income earners who, in turn, prefer at least as much immigration as pensioners. The median voter is then likely to be a low-income native.

A computable general equilibrium assessment of the impact of illegal immigration on the Greek economy

Recent years have witnessed a large inflow of illegal immigrants into Greece. Past surveys have examined the extent and nature of this immigration, but have not analysed the impacts on the economy. This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of the impact of illegal immigration on the economy of the small open type, like that of Greece. The theoretical analysis uses a small stylised model to show that there is no unequivocal case for illegal immigration to lead to declines in the real wages of unskilled labour and increases in the real wages of skilled. Empirical analysis using a recently constructed applied general equilibrium model for Greece, adapted to the purpose in hand, shows that the inflow of illegal immigrants has resulted in declines of the real disposable incomes of two classes of households among the fifteen modelled, namely those headed by an unskilled person, that are poor and middle income. All other households gain. The ones who lose, however, make up about 37% of the Greek population. The distributional effects are moderated, however, when rigidities in the labour market are simulated. Received: 16 May 1997/Accepted: 18 March 1998     

试析历代汉族移民与广西壮族地区的社会变迁

中华民族的各个民族,在祖国历史长期发展进程中,作了各自应有的贡献,广西作为壮族人口最多的地区,其今日的发展不仅是各少数民族努力的结果．也与汉族人民的辛勤劳动分不开。自秦开岭南、修灵渠、“谪徙五十万与越杂居”后,汉族移民因各种原因不断迁徙来广西,随之带来中原先进的经济生产技术,也带来了充足劳动力与壮族人民共同开发广西。同时汉壮民族在相互交往中,逐渐形成你中有我,我中有你,从而对壮族地区社会文化与经济变迁产生雩大影响.     

How responsive is U.S. population growth to immigration? A situational sensitivity analysis

There has been public concern about the effect of immigration on population growth in the U.S. But how responsive is population growth to immigration? This paper examines the sensitivity of intrinsic population growth to immigration and situates such sensitivity in fertility and survival changes. The application of second derivatives on a modified Leslie matrix facilitates the analysis of situational sensitivity of U.S. population growth to immigration. The results show that the sensitivity to immigration is not as influential as the sensitivity to fertility, and that the sensitivity to immigration further depends on changes in fertility and survival.     

浅谈人口普查地理区域划分

在人口普查中 ,划分普查地理区域便于普查工作的组织实施 ,是保证登记不重不漏的可靠基础 ,是建立普查数据质量控制体系的有效途径 ,并能为后续工作提供依据。划分原则一般是普查区域尽可能与行政区划相吻合 ,逐级划分 ,地域覆盖不漏不重 ,特殊地区特殊对待。划分重点在于普查区和调查小区     

香港人口普查数据开发使用模式对大陆的借鉴意义

人口普查是一次规模空前的国情国力大调查 ,投入了大量人力物力 ,取得了全面翔实的人口社会经济信息。如何开发利用这些得来不易的宝贵资料 ,牵扯到人口普查资料的管理、使用方式的界定、资料的开发模式以及相应的法律建设等一系列问题。香港在人口普查数据开发使用上的信息提供、法律建设、实际操作的规范性管理上积累了一定的经验 ,可供我们借鉴和学习。     

Age-sex structure of the United States in 2000: Early results from Census 2000

Recently data on age and sex for the United States have beenreleased in the Census 2000 data product Summary File 1. This paper presents someearly analysis on the shape of the age and sex structure from Census 2000 data throughstatistics and graphics on national and sub-national levels. Also highlighted are comparisonswith data from the 1990 census.     

Dynamics of immigration control

This paper examines the dynamic implications of border control policies and internal enforcement measures for the pattern of illegal immigration and the sectoral allocation of clandestine foreign workers. It is argued that efforts to control illegal immigration in sectors where they traditionally find employment may trigger the formation of networks supporting clandestine foreign workers in new locations and occupations where the probability of detection is relatively lower. The end result may be an increase in the overall stock of illegal immigrants residing in the economy. Received: 5 May 1997/Accepted: 4 December 1997     

上海市老年人口状况发展轨迹与启示

本文基于1953-2000年期间的五次人口普查数据,以及上海市民政局和统计局联合发布的2001-2006年连续6牟的《上海市老年人口和老龄事业监测统计信息》,运用人口学专业视角和统计学分析技术处理,并利用人口学队列分析方法对上海市老年人口近年变化趋势做出预测,试图对上海市50年代至今老年人口的发展状况及今后几年的发展趋势有个清楚的把握,以期对上海充分认识人口结构变化扬长避短以保持社会经济良性运行能有所启示。     

Unskilled labor and wage determination: an empirical investigation for Germany

This article contributes to the ongoing debate on native wage impacts of immigration. I propose a mobile-fixed factor distinction as a framework in which to think about the differential impact of immigration on various labor market groups. Skilled workers are treated as a fixed factor of production since the strong reliance on skill certification in Germany inhibits mobility and shelters from competition. Unskilled workers, in contrast, receive competitive wages. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel for 1984–1989 I estimate panel wage regressions for groups of workers separated by skill certification. I find that university graduates‘ wages increase, and the wages of workers without postsecondary degree decrease, as the industry share of unskilled workers increases. The effect for apprentices is ambiguous. JEL classification: F22, J31 Received January 19, 1995 / Accepted August 14, 1995     

Welfare effects of illegal immigration

This paper analyzes the welfare effect of illegal immigration on the host country within a dynamic general equilibrium framework and shows that it is positive for two reasons. First, immigrants are paid less than their marginal product, and second, after an increase in immigration, domestic households find it optimal to increase their holdings of capital. It is also shown that dynamic inefficiency may arise, despite the fact that the model is of the Ramsey type. Nevertheless, the introduction of a minimum wage, which leads to job competition between domestic unskilled workers and immigrants reverses all of the above results.

An evaluation of bridging methods using race data from Census 2000

The question on race from Census 2000 was different from previous censuses because it allowed respondents to select one or more races to indicate their racial identities. Because of this change, the race data from Census 2000 are not directly comparable with data from earlier censuses. Researchers can use `bridging' methods to assign more than one race respondents to single race categories to maximize the comparability of Census 2000 race data with earlier censuses. This paper uses several bridging methods to generate race population estimates and analyzes the variability in those estimates across six single race groups.