A powerful and interpretable alternative to the Jarque–Bera test of normality based on 2nd-power skewness and kurtosis,using the Rao's score test on the APD family

We introduce the 2nd-power skewness and kurtosis, which are interesting alternatives to the classical Pearson's skewness and kurtosis, called 3rd-power skewness and 4th-power kurtosis in our terminology. We use the sample 2nd-power skewness and kurtosis to build a powerful test of normality. This test can also be derived as Rao's score test on the asymmetric power distribution, which combines the large range of exponential tail behavior provided by the exponential power distribution family with various levels of asymmetry. We find that our test statistic is asymptotically chi-squared distributed. We also propose a modified test statistic, for which we show numerically that the distribution can be approximated for finite sample sizes with very high precision by a chi-square. Similarly, we propose a directional test based on sample 2nd-power kurtosis only, for the situations where the true distribution is known to be symmetric. Our tests are very similar in spirit to the famous Jarque–Bera test, and as such are also locally optimal. They offer the same nice interpretation, with in addition the gold standard power of the regression and correlation tests. An extensive empirical power analysis is performed, which shows that our tests are among the most powerful normality tests. Our test is implemented in an R package called PoweR.     

Tests for multivariate normality based on canonical correlations

We propose new affine invariant tests for multivariate normality, based on independence characterizations of the sample moments of the normal distribution. The test statistics are obtained using canonical correlations between sets of sample moments in a way that resembles the construction of Mardia’s skewness measure and generalizes the Lin–Mudholkar test for univariate normality. The tests are compared to some popular tests based on Mardia’s skewness and kurtosis measures in an extensive simulation power study and are found to offer higher power against many of the alternatives.     

On estimating the box-cox transformation to normality

This paper studies four methods for estimating the Box-Cox parameter used to transform data to normality. Three of these are based on optimizing test statistics for standard normality tests (the Shapiro-Wilk. skewness, and kurtosis tests); the fourth uses the maximum likelihood estimator of the Box-Cox parameter. The four methods are compared and evaluated with a simulation study, where their performances under different skewness and kurtosis conditions are analyzed. The estimator based on optimizing the Shapiro-Wilk statistic generally gives rise to the best transformations, while the maximum likelihood estimator performs almost as well. Estimators based on optimizing skewness and kurtosis do not perform well in general.     

A Monte Carlo comparison of Jarque–Bera type tests and Henze–Zirkler test of multivariate normality

In the paper, tests for multivariate normality (MVN) of Jarque-Bera type, based on skewness and kurtosis, have been considered. Tests proposed by Mardia and Srivastava, and the combined tests based on skewness and kurtosis defined by Jarque and Bera have been taken into account. In the Monte Carlo simulations, for each combination of p = 2, 3, 4, 5 number of traits and n = 10(5)50(10)100 sample sizes 10,000 runs have been done to calculate empirical Type I errors of tests under consideration, and empirical power against different alternative distributions. Simulation results have been compared to the Henze–Zirkler’s test. It should be stressed that no test yet proposed is uniformly better than all the others in every combination of conditions examined.     

Testing for normality in linear regression models

The importance of the normal distribution for fitting continuous data is well known. However, in many practical situations data distribution departs from normality. For example, the sample skewness and the sample kurtosis are far away from 0 and 3, respectively, which are nice properties of normal distributions. So, it is important to have formal tests of normality against any alternative. D'Agostino et al. [A suggestion for using powerful and informative tests of normality, Am. Statist. 44 (1990), pp. 316–321] review four procedures Z ²(g ₁), Z ²(g ₂), D and K ² for testing departure from normality. The first two of these procedures are tests of normality against departure due to skewness and kurtosis, respectively. The other two tests are omnibus tests. An alternative to the normal distribution is a class of skew-normal distributions (see [A. Azzalini, A class of distributions which includes the normal ones, Scand. J. Statist. 12 (1985), pp. 171–178]). In this paper, we obtain a score test (W) and a likelihood ratio test (LR) of goodness of fit of the normal regression model against the skew-normal family of regression models. It turns out that the score test is based on the sample skewness and is of very simple form. The performance of these six procedures, in terms of size and power, are compared using simulations. The level properties of the three statistics LR, W and Z ²(g ₁) are similar and close to the nominal level for moderate to large sample sizes. Also, their power properties are similar for small departure from normality due to skewness (γ₁≤0.4). Of these, the score test statistic has a very simple form and computationally much simpler than the other two statistics. The LR statistic, in general, has highest power, although it is computationally much complex as it requires estimates of the parameters under the normal model as well as those under the skew-normal model. So, the score test may be used to test for normality against small departure from normality due to skewness. Otherwise, the likelihood ratio statistic LR should be used as it detects general departure from normality (due to both skewness and kurtosis) with, in general, largest power.     

Omnibus tests of multinormality based on skewness and kurtosis

Measures of univariate skewness and kurtosis have long been used as a test of univariate normality, several omnibus test procedures based on a combination of the measures having been proposed, see Pearson, D’Agestino and Bowman (1977) and Mardia (1979). Mardia (1970) proposed measures of multivariate skewness and kurtosis, and constructed a test of multinormality based on these measures. we obtain the correlation between these measures and propose several omnibus tests using the two measures. The performances of these tests are compared by means of a Monte Carlo study.     

Testing residual normality in the ANOVA model

The use of single group skewness and kurtosis critical values for the assessment of residual normality in the ANOVA model is examined. Using single group critical values gives a conservative test of residual normality in multiple group designs. As the sample size per group increases, the empirical Type I error rates for the skewness and kurtosis tests of residual normality approach a. These results supplement previous work which has focused on testing residual normality in the linear regression model.     

Practical implications of higher moments in risk management

In this paper the out-of-sample prediction of Value-at-Risk by means of models accounting for higher moments is studied. We consider models differing in terms of skewness and kurtosis and, in particular, the GARCHDSK model, which allows for constant and dynamic skewness and kurtosis. The issue of VaR prediction performance is approached first from a purely statistical viewpoint, studying the properties concerning correct coverage rates and independence of VaR violations. Then, financial implications of different VaR models, in terms of market risk capital requirements, as defined by the Basel Accord, are considered. Our results, based on the analysis of eight international stock indexes, highlight the presence of conditional skewness and kurtosis, in some case time-varying, and point out that asymmetry plays a significant role in risk management.     

基于回归的时变偏度和时变峰度识别检验

资产收益率时变高阶矩建模的首要前提是资产收益率的偏度和峰度具有时变性,即资产收益率存在类似于异方差性的异偏度和异峰度特征。目前文献中的时变偏度和时变峰度识别检验存在适用性较差且检验功效较低等不足。本文提出基于回归的检验方法识别资产收益率偏度和峰度的时变性。该检验一方面利用概率积分变换缓解了拉格朗日乘数检验对资产收益率序列的高阶矩存在性的限制,另一方面考虑了检验统计量中参数估计的不确定性对其统计性质的影响,具有良好的渐近统计性质且适用性更广。蒙特卡洛模拟表明该检验具有良好的有限样本性质,具有合适的检验水平和较高的检验功效。最后,将基于回归的检验运用于上证综指和深圳成指收益率的时变建模研究中。     

On Sample Skewness and Kurtosis

It is well documented in the literature that the sample skewness and excess kurtosis can be severely biased in finite samples. In this paper, we derive analytical results for their finite-sample biases up to the second order. In general, the bias results depend on the cumulants (up to the sixth order) as well as the dependency structure of the data. Using an AR(1) process for illustration, we show that a feasible bias-correction procedure based on our analytical results works remarkably well for reducing the bias of the sample skewness. Bias-correction works reasonably well also for the sample kurtosis under some moderate degree of dependency. In terms of hypothesis testing, bias-correction offers power improvement when testing for normality, and bias-correction under the null provides also size improvement. However, for testing nonzero skewness and/or excess kurtosis, there exist nonnegligible size distortions in finite samples and bias-correction may not help.     

Skewness,kurtosis, and black-scholes option mispricing

The Black-Scholes option pricing model assumes that (instantaneous) common stock returns are normally distributed. However, the observed distribution exhibits deviations from normality; in particular skewness and kurtosis. We attribute these deviations to gross data errors. Using options' transactions data, we establish that the sample standard deviation, sample skewness, and sample kurtosis contribute to the Black-Scholes model's observed mispricing of a sample from the Berkeley Options Data Base of 2323 call options written on 88 common stocks paying no dividends during the options'life. Following Huber's statement that the primary case for robust statistics is when the shape of the observed distribution deviates slightly from the assumed distribution (usually the Gaussian), we show that robust volatility estimators eliminate the mispricing with respect to sample skewness and sample kurtosis, and significantly improve the Black-Scholes model's pricing performance with respect to estimated volatility.     

Exponentiated Sinh Cauchy Distribution with Applications

The exponentiated sinh Cauchy distribution is characterized by four parameters: location, scale, symmetry, and asymmetry. The symmetry parameter preserves the symmetry of the distribution by producing both bimodal and unimodal densities having coefficient of kurtosis values ranging from one to positive infinity. The asymmetry parameter changes the symmetry of the distribution by producing both positively and negatively skewed densities having coefficient of skewness values ranging from negative infinity to positive infinity. Bimodality, skewness, and kurtosis properties of this regular distribution are presented. In addition, relations to some well-known distributions are examined in terms of skewness and kurtosis by constructing aliases of the proposed distribution on the symmetry and asymmetry parameter plane. The maximum likelihood parameter estimation technique is discussed, and examples are provided and analyzed based on data from astronomy and medical sciences to illustrate the flexibility of the distribution for modeling bimodal and unimodal data.     

Graphical comparison of normality tests for unimodal distribution data

A methodology is proposed to compare the power of normality tests with a wide variety of alternative unimodal distributions. It is based on the representation of a distribution mosaic in which kurtosis varies vertically and skewness horizontally. The mosaic includes distributions such as exponential, Laplace or uniform, with normal occupying the centre. Simulation is used to determine the probability of a sample from each distribution in the mosaic being accepted as normal. We demonstrate our proposal by applying it to the analysis and comparison of some of the most well-known tests.     

Estimation of variance of mean using known coefficient of variation

An optimum unbiased estimator of the variance of mean is given It is defined as a function of the mean and itscustomary unbiased variance estimator, utilizing known coefficient of variation, skewness and kurtosis of the underlying distributions. Exact results are obtained. Normal and large sample cases receive particular treatment. The proposed variance estimator is generally more efficient than the customary variance estimator; its relative efficiency becomes appreciably higher for smaller coefficient of variation, smaller sample (in the normal case at least), higher negative skewness, or higher positive skewness with sufficiently large kurtosis. The empirical findings are reassuring and supportive.     

On Blest’s Measure of Kurtosis Adjusted for Skewness

We reconsider the derivation of Blest’s (2003) skewness adjusted version of the classical moment-based coefficient of kurtosis and propose an adaptation of it which generally eliminates the effects of asymmetry a little more successfully. Lower bounds are provided for the two skewness adjusted kurtosis moment measures as functions of the classical coefficient of skewness. The results from a Monte Carlo experiment designed to investigate the sampling properties of numerous moment-based estimators of the two skewness adjusted kurtosis measures are used to identify those estimators with lowest mean squared error for small to medium sized samples drawn from distributions with varying levels of asymmetry and tailweight.     

基于Monte Carlo模拟的STAR模型样本矩性质研究

采用Monte Carlo模拟方法对STAR模型样本矩的统计特性进行研究。分析结果表明:STAR模型的样本均值、样本方差、样本偏度及样本峰度都渐近服从正态分布;即使STAR模型的数据生成过程中不含有常数项,其总体均值可能也不是0,这与线性ARMA模型有显著区别;即使STAR模型数据生成过程中的误差项服从正态分布,数据仍有可能是有偏分布。     

A tool for systematically comparing the power of tests for normality

In this article, we describe a new approach to compare the power of different tests for normality. This approach provides the researcher with a practical tool for evaluating which test at their disposal is the most appropriate for their sampling problem. Using the Johnson systems of distribution, we estimate the power of a test for normality for any mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis. Using this characterization and an innovative graphical representation, we validate our method by comparing three well-known tests for normality: the Pearson χ² test, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, and the D'Agostino–Pearson K ² test. We obtain such comparison for a broad range of skewness, kurtosis, and sample sizes. We demonstrate that the D'Agostino–Pearson test gives greater power than the others against most of the alternative distributions and at most sample sizes. We also find that the Pearson χ² test gives greater power than Kolmogorov–Smirnov against most of the alternative distributions for sample sizes between 18 and 330.     

Third and fourth moments of vector autoregressions with regime switching

We derive matrix formulae in closed form for the unconditional third and fourth moments of a broad class of vector autoregressive time series with regime switching. First and second moments are well known. New measures of multivariate skewness and kurtosis are introduced and basic properties are investigated. The knowledge of series level, variation, co-movements, skewness, and kurtosis is useful to support model interpretation in real data application. Numerical examples complete the paper.     

On the corrections to information matrix tests

This paper addresses the issue of designing finite-sample corrections to information matrix tests. We review a Cornish-Fisher correction that has been propowed elsewhere and propose an alternative, Bartlett-type correction. Simulation results for skewness, excess kurtosis, normality and heteroskedasticity tests are given.     

Expected sample moments of concomitants of selected order statistics

In this paper, the task of determining expected values of sample moments, where the sample members have been selected based on noisy information, is considered. This task is a recurring problem in the theory of evolution strategies. Exact expressions for expected values of sums of products of concomitants of selected order statistics are derived. Then, using Edgeworth and Cornish-Fisher approximations, explicit results that depend on coefficients that can be determined numerically are obtained. While the results are exact only for normal populations, it is shown experimentally that including skewness and kurtosis in the calculations can yield greatly improved results for other distributions.