Selection of the best well control system by using fuzzy multiple-attribute decision-making methods

There are numerous difficulties involved in drilling operations of an oil well, one of the most important of them being well control. Well control systems are applied when we have irruption of liquids or unwanted intrusion of the reservoir's liquid (oil, gas or brine) into the well, during drilling when the pressure of well fluid column is less than formation pressure, and the permeability of the reservoir has a value that is able to pass the liquid through. For this purpose, a variety of methods including Driller, wait and weight, and the concurrent methods were used to control the well at different drilling sites. In this study, we investigate the optimum method for well control using a fussy method based on many parameters, including technical factors (mud weight, drilling rate, blockage of pipes, sensitivity to drilling network changes, etc.) and security factors (existence of effervescent mud, drilling circuit control, etc.), and cost of selection, which is one of the most important decisions that are made under critical conditions such as irruption. Till now, these methods were selected based on the experience of field personnel in drilling sites. The technical criteria and standards were influenced by experience, so the soft computerizing system (fuzzy method) was used. Thus, both these criteria and standards would be of greater importance and indicate whether the optimum numerical method is the same one that is expressed by human experience. The concurrent method was selected as the best for well control, using the fuzzy method at the end of the evaluation, while field personnel experience suggests the Driller method.     

Wavelet-Based Density Estimation in a Heteroscedastic Convolution Model

We consider a heteroscedastic convolution density model under the “ordinary smooth assumption.” We introduce a new adaptive wavelet estimator based on term-by-term hard thresholding rule. Its asymptotic properties are explored via the minimax approach under the mean integrated squared error over Besov balls. We prove that our estimator attains near optimal rates of convergence (lower bounds are determined). Simulation results are reported to support our theoretical findings.     

Convolution of Binomial and Negative Binomial Variables

This paper considers a distribution formed by convolution of binomial and negative binomial variables. The distribution has the flexibility to adapt to the model under, equi, and over dispersion. Some properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including characterization. Three stochastic processes leading to the distribution are also considered: (1) a three-dimensional random walk; (2) a birth, death, and immigration process; and (3) a thinned stochastic process.     

Convolution power kernels for density estimation

We propose a new type of non-parametric density estimators fitted to random variables with lower or upper-bounded support. To illustrate the method, we focus on nonnegative random variables. The estimators are constructed using kernels which are densities of empirical means of m i.i.d. nonnegative random variables with expectation 1. The exponent m   plays the role of the bandwidth. We study the pointwise mean square error and propose a pointwise adaptive estimator. The risk of the adaptive estimator satisfies an almost oracle inequality. A noteworthy result is that the adaptive rate is in correspondence with the smoothness properties of the unknown density as a function on (0,+∞)$(0,+\infty )$. The adaptive estimators are illustrated on simulated data. We compare our approach with the classical kernel estimators.     

Asymptotic distributions of weighted divergence between discrete distributions

A divergence measure between discrete probability distributions introduced by Csiszar (1967) generalizes the Kullback-Leibler information and several other information measures considered in the literature. We introduce a weighted divergence which generalizes the weighted Kullback-Leibler information considered by Taneja (1985). The weighted divergence between an empirical distribution and a fixed distribution and the weighted divergence between two independent empirical distributions are here investigated for large simple random samples, and the asymptotic distributions are shown to be either normal or equal to the distribution of a linear combination of independent X²-variables     

Estimation in noncentral distributions

This paper investigates alternatives to MIU estimators in noncentral X ² and F distributions. Two directions are pursued. In the first, a general approach for uniformly improving on MVU estimators is described and illustrated. In the second, Bayesian, procedures are characterized and illustrated as well. This effort extends earlier work of Perlman and Rasmussen and of Neff and Strawderman.     

Asymmetric tolerance distributions: an application of two-piece distributions

A technique is proposed which allows for the fitting of and testing for asymmetric tolerance distributions in quantal assays. The implementation of the technique in statistical packages is discussed and is illustrated by an application to a simple data set.     

Relation of modified power series distributions to lagrangian probability distributions

The class of Lagrangian probability distributions ‘LPD’, given by the expansion of a probability generating function f‘t’ under the transformation u = t/g‘t’ where g ‘t’ is also a p.g.f., has been substantially widened by removing the restriction that the defining functions g ‘t’ and f‘t’ be probability generating functions. The class of modified power series distributions defined by Gupta ‘1974’ has been shown to be a sub-class of the wider class of LPDs     

Characterization of distributions in invariant models

The theorem of Kagan et al. (1967), (Sankhya Ser. A. 27, 405) on the characterization of the normal law is extended to the characterization of a broad class of distribution shapes, also in the linear regression model, and the stability of this characterization is considered. The results enable, among others, to construct an asymptotically efficient estimator from a subclass of equivariant asymptotically linear estimators of θ.     

The non-null distributions in anoya

Under the traditional assumptions, any entry in ANOVA interpreted to include all Linear model analyses] is equivalent in disiributien to a quadratic form Q=[μ₁+σ₁Z₁]²+…+ [μ_ν+σ_νZ_ν]²]wherein Z₁..Z_ν are independent standard normal variables. Test statisics in ANOVE are distributed as ratio R of two depenbent such quadretic forms. The non-null distribution of R is a mixture of null distributions; the mixing variable is an easy generalitatlon of the Poisson variable. Fast algorithms yield the power function in both fixed and random effects models in AVOVA to user-specified accuracy.     

The use of utilities and experts in decision-making

In the process of decision-making the decision-maker may be able to consult an expert or experts or there may be no experts available. Four different situations that the decision-maker may be confronted with, are considered. The utilities of the decision-maker are used in this decision-making process to obtain his Bayes decision. The four different situations are illustrated by an example.     

Estimation in two-parameter exponential distributions

Exponential distributions are used extensively in the field of life-testing. Estimation of parameters is revisited in two-parameter exponential distributions. A comparison study between the maximum likelihood method, the unbiased estimates which are linear functions of the maximum likelihood method, the method of product spacings, and the method of quantile estimates are presented. Finally, a simulation study is given to demonstrate the small sample properties     

Integer-parameter estimation in discrete distributions

Integer-parameter restriction quite often occurs naturally in real life situations. Here we consider the problem of deriving the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) for the case in which the parameter is restricted to a positive integer. The usual asymptotic theory for the MLE does not hold good any more and each case needs individual attention for the derivation of these results,. The estimation problem in the case of Poisson, Binomial, and Poisson-Binomial bivariate model is investigated here, A simple method of deriving the MLE and the lower bound for the variance of the integer-parameter estimator is also discussed     

Influence analysis in truncated distributions

Conditional bias and asymptotic mean sensitivity curve (AMSC) are useful measures to assess the possible effect of an observation on an estimator when sampling from a parametric model. In this paper we obtain expressions for these measures in truncated distributions and study their theoretical properties. Specific results are given for the UMVUE of a parametric function. We note that the AMSC for the UMVUE in truncated distributions verifies some of the most relevant properties we got in a previous paper for the AMSC of UMVUE in the NEF-QVF case, main differences are also established. As for the conditional bias, since it is a finite sample measure, we include some practical examples to illustrate its behaviour when the sample size increases.     

Fisher information in weighted distributions

Suppose that a density f_θ (x) belongs to an exponential family, but that inference about θ must be based on data that are obtained from a density that is proportional to W(x)f_θ(x). The authors study the Fisher information about θ in observations obtained from such weighted distributions and give conditions under which this information is greater than under the original density. These conditions involve the hazard- and reversed-hazard-rate functions.     

A family of bivariate binomial distributions generated by extreme bernoulli distributions

In this paper, bivariate binomial distributions generated by extreme bivariate Bernoulli distributions are obtained and studied. Representation of the bivariate binomial distribution generated by a convex combination of extreme bivariate Bernoulli distributions as a mixture of distributions in the class of bivariate binomial distribution generated by extreme bivariate Bernoulli distribution is obtained. A subfamily of bivariate binomial distributions exhibiting the property of positive and negative dependence is constructed. Some results on positive dependence notions as it relates to the bivariate binomial distribution generated by extreme bivariate Bernoulli distribution and a linear combination of such distributions are obtained.     

A Convolution Estimator for the Density of Nonlinear Regression Observations

Abstract. The problem of estimating an unknown density function has been widely studied. In this article, we present a convolution estimator for the density of the responses in a nonlinear heterogenous regression model. The rate of convergence for the mean square error of the convolution estimator is of order n ^?1 under certain regularity conditions. This is faster than the rate for the kernel density method. We derive explicit expressions for the asymptotic variance and the bias of the new estimator, and further a data‐driven bandwidth selector is proposed. We conduct simulation experiments to check the finite sample properties, and the convolution estimator performs substantially better than the kernel density estimator for well‐behaved noise densities.     

Properties of Lagrangian distributions

Abstract

Lagrange’s expansion is the power series expansion of the inverse function of an analytic function, and it leads to general Lagrangian distributions of the first kind as well as of the second kind. We present some theorems in which different sets of two analytic functions provide a Lagrangian distribution. Potential applicability of the theorem to tandem queueing process is studied.