中国人口年龄结构特征与变化趋势分析--基于1995～2014年数据的实证研究

人口年龄结构是经过多年人口自然增长和迁移变动等综合作用而形成的客观状况,对未来人口发展的速度和趋势以及国家或地区经济社会整体发展产生重要影响。本文通过对1995～2014年数据的实证分析,发现20年来我国人口年龄结构呈现以下特征：少儿人口数量减少且比重呈持续下降趋势;劳动年龄人口数量稳步增长且比重呈稳定上升趋势;老年人口数量持续增长且比重呈上升趋势,老龄化进程加快。总体人口年龄结构呈现老年型,各地区人口老龄化程度存在差异。各地人口负担系数存在较大差异,人均GDP与总抚养比和少年儿童抚养比呈负相关,与老年人口抚养比呈正相关。经济发达省市区人口负担系数较小;城乡人口比例呈持续升高态势;城乡人口总抚养比和少儿抚养比呈下降趋势,城乡老年人口抚养比呈稳步升高态势;乡村人口抚养比高于城镇。     

Theories and practical problems of population facing four modernizations being conscientiously studied]

The Second National Symposium on Population Theory focused on the problems of population and their solution associated with the 4 modernizations. The following issues discussed by 7 Sumposium panels are summarized: population development theory in the socialist society; population problems in China and their solution; population policies and legislation relating to population control; population distribution and migration; population estimation and population planning; and population research and the establishment of population theory. Discussants agreed that the comprehensive investigation of population principle in a socialist society is of great importance to decisionmaking in the area of China's population development policy. Several different issues arose concerning the content and critical areas in the development of a socialist population principle. More than 1 principle is operating in socialist population theory, but the most important is the principle of population reproduction. The point was made that in addition to the population principle specific to individual society, there exists principles that are common to every society. The consensus was that population growth is associated with all the economical, political, and idelogical developments and that among these the association between population growth and economic development is the most significant. The current major population problem in China was identified as maladjustment between population growth and economic development. This maladjustment has led to problems in the areas of education, employment, transportation, and housing. The fundamental solution was identified as improving economical development to increase the material reproduction and controlling the population reproduction. In addition to birth control policies, it was suggested that population policies should include the geographical distribution and migration of the population. There was wide support for the proposal to legislate population control. It was agreed that such legislation would promote the progress of population control and assure its success. Discussion of the problems of population distribution and migration concentrated on the population problems of the urban area and minority ethnic groups. It was suggested that a nationwide census be conducted in population planning, population legislation, and population theory investigation. In order to establish the socialist population theory, it is essential to clarify the subjects, scopes, and methods of population research.     

世界人口格局中的中国人口转变及其特点

20世纪 50年代以后的中国人口转变与西方传统人口转变有许多不同之处 ,具有自身的特点 ,即转变的迅速性、控制干预性、不彻底性、不稳定性、不平衡性。把握新时期稳定低生育水平的决定是将我国人口转变进行到底的重要措施和手段 ,是实现人口可持续发展的重要步骤     

1954—2005年新疆兵团人口发展特点及制约因素分析

本文从人口增长变动、人口分布、人口构成等方面分析了新疆兵团人口的发展特点．并进一步提出了制约兵团人口发展的因素。分析结果表明：50多年来兵团人口增长迅速,人口总数中,省际人口迁移量大且占有重要的地位：人口再生产类型已经实现了转变,出现了低出生、低死亡、低增长率;人口分布不均;总人口性别比严重失调;就业人口趋于减少,劳动力资源的供蛤严重不足。制约兵团人口发展的因素主要是自然环境差以及经济发展水平低。     

Population Policies in Developed Countries: How do Australia’S Policies Compare?

This paper compares international population policies with respect to population growth, fertility and immigration, and discusses current attitudes to the demographic situation in developed countries. Only Canada, the United States and Australia have a policy of continuing high immigration, and Australia’s migrant intake per head of population is considerably higher than for the other two countries. An emerging philosophy in Britain and Europe is a focus on “child quality” and the well-being of a near stationary population, rather than continued population growth. There is also an awareness that immigration is not a solution to the ageing “problem” and that there are more efficient non-demographic means of coping with an older population.     

我国开发区人口发展规律初探——以国家级经济技术开发区人口发展为例

由于基础数据的不完备以及发展时间较短,开发区人口研究较为薄弱。以三个国家级经济技术开发区的人口发展为例,通过个案分析的研究方法,探讨开发区人口发展规律。开发区人口呈阶段性增长态势、人口增长以机械增长为主、劳动年龄人口比重大、暂住人口比例高、就业人口中通勤现象比较普遍。开发区人口发展态势主要受开发区两大转变的影响,即经济增长方式的转变和功能定位的转变。     

A preliminary analysis of the present situation of China's population]

The national census conducted in 1982 provides the most up-to-date statistics on China's population. The following are some characteristics of China's population at the present time, based upon preliminary analysis: (1) The total population figure has passed the one billion mark, but the growth rate has been declining since the 1970s; (2) The population density is higher than other countries of the world, but the distribution is uneven. The percentage of the city population is low, and changes in urban and rural distribution are slow; (3) The population growth of ethnic minorities is higher than average, and the ratio of the minority population is increasing; (4) There are slightly more men than women-an impact of traditional society; (5) The age structure of the population is still young, but sharp change is in the process of developing; (6) Fertility has declined on a large scale, but is still far from reaching the goal of population control; (7) The death rate has remained at a low level for a long period of time, and average lifespan is gradually becoming prolonged; (8) The marital status has remained stable, and people normally marry between the ages of 20 and 30; (9) The cultural and educational level of the general public has been promoted, but still not enough for modernized construction; (10) The employment rate is high, and most of the working population is employed with the departments of material production. The percentage of employment of a service nature is small. A high percentage of the working population is related to agriculture, fishing, and animal husbandry. The precentage of workers in manual labor is much higher than that for mental labor.     

Population and global warming with and without CO2 targets

The sensitivity of future global warming to variable population growth rates is reexamined as part of an ongoing debate over the extent to which climate change should be added to the list of concerns surrounding population growth. The UN 1992 low, medium and high population projections out to the year 2150 are run through an integrated climate-economics model which allows the effect of population variability to be traced through to CO₂ emissions, concentrations, warming and economic growth.We treat separately the cases of population's role in global warming, first without and then with specified atmospheric targets. Without targets, modeled CO₂ concentrations in year 2150 show great variability ranging from 600 ppm (UN low projection) to 1375 ppm (UN high projection). Such numbers suggest the potential effect of variable population growth on climate is large and that population policy options carry with them a significant, longterm, global warming mitigation component. The range of global warming achieved is not as sensitive to population because of weakened radiative absorption at high CO₂ levels. With respect to targets, with low population, stabilization at 650–750 ppm is achieved with relatively modest cuts in carbon intensity. Stabilization at 350–450 ppms requires steep cuts in emissions that are only weakly affected by the full range of variable population growth rates. Stabilization at 550 ppm is thus a transitional point between these end-member roles for population. Future work needs to address cost issues which could change this assessment of the role of population with CO₂ targets.     

人口安全视野下农业女性化问题研究

本文从人口安全的视野研究农业女性化现象。本文认为,农村剩余劳动力非农转移是农业女性化产生的直接原因,经济利益最大化是农业女性化产生的内在原因,传统的性别观念是农业女性化产生的根本原因,女性劳动力人力资本处于劣势是农业女性化产生的重要原因。农业女性化现象产生以下重要的人口安全问题：一是农村劳动力人口结构中女性居多,不利于农业发展;二是农村人口素质普遍降低,不利于农村发展;三是女性人口的安全与发展受到严重威胁,不利于农村社会稳定;四是农村婚姻破裂和老人失养现象增多,不利于家庭稳定与和谐。为此,要以社会风险的理念和整体的思路治理农业女性化这一现象,加大城乡统筹力度,促进城乡人口结构分布合理;更新理念消除性别歧视,维护农村女性素质发展;强化人口宏观管理,促进城乡人口科学有序流动;改革相关配套制度,保障农村女性安全和发展;构建人口风险预警机制,提高应对人口风险的能力。     

北京市流动人口数量变动历史趋势分析

本文探讨了北京市流动人口规模变动的历史过程.研究结果表明北京市流动人口规模受到政府政策和城市经济形势的明显影响在政策鼓励和经济发展迅速时,流动人口规模就大而且增长迅速.反之,则其规模小而且迅速减少虽然政策对流动人口有着显著的影响作用,但其影响作用不是无限的;同时,流动人口的增长也必须有一个合理的限度,而不能盲目发展.由此决定了对"流动人口"进行管理的基本思路是既不能盲目限制和排斥,又不能任其发展,听之任之.     

Population statistics] as of January 1, 2000

This table presents the population statistics of Thailand as of January 1, 2000. Thailand has a total population of 61,737,000; 30,726,000 are males and 31,011,000 are females. The urban areas have a population of 18,972,000, while the rural areas have a population of 42,765,000. The population numbers, by region, are the following: northern, 12,117,000; northeastern, 20,164,000; southern, 7,957,000; central (excluding Bangkok Metropolis), 13,654,000; Bangkok Metropolis, 7,845,000. Children (under age 15) numbered 14,764,000; labor force participants (ages 15-59), 41,647,000; the elderly (ages 60-79), 4,974,000; those aged 80 and above, 352,000; the school-age population (ages 6-21), 16,703,000; reproductive-age women (ages 15-44), 16,697,000; and the voting population (ages 18 and over), 43,691,000. The crude birth rate (per 1000 population) is 16.4, and the crude death rate is 6.5. Thailand has a natural growth rate of 1.0% and an infant mortality rate (per 1000 live births) of 22.4. Life expectancy at birth among males and females is 69.9 and 74.9, respectively. The total fertility rate is 1.9/woman, the contraceptive prevalence rate is 72.2%, and the ratio of females per 1 male is 1.0 for ages 0-59, 1.1 for ages 60-79, and 2.0 for ages 80 and over.     

On some characteristics of the population development in the Shenzhen Special Economic Region]

Shenzhen was originally a town in Guandong Province. In 1979, it was made into a Special Economic Region in order to cope with the needs of modernization. Because of rapid economic development, the population has also been growing rapidly. Before 1979, the total population of Shenzhen was only 20,000, both industry and agriculture were backward, and the living standard was low. After it was made a Special Economic Region, its population figure reached 200,000 according to a 1982 report. The age structure of the local population is young, and there are more males than females. In the last two years, because of family planning measures, the natural population growth rate has shown an obvious downward trend. The population development of Shenzhen has several characteristics: 1) the pace of population growth is very fast; 2) the educational level for the population is high, and investment in education is emphasized; 3) population mobility is strong, and it has an extensive impact on the local market, transportation, and social order; 4) the social and economic systems of Hong Kong have a special influence on its population development. Special studies and discussions concerning how to control Shenzhen's population growth, how to determine the trends toward change in age structure, and how to promote population quality and spiritual civilization should be conducted according to characteristics of the local population development.     

60年来中国人口惯性变化及趋势

本文使用国际上较为成熟的测量方法,系统地计算了60年来中国总人口惯性、城乡人口惯性和分年龄人口惯性的变化和趋势。得出重要结论:第一,中国人口正增长的人口惯性作用正在逐渐消失;第二,中国城镇处于人口正负惯性的转折点,而中国人口的惯性增长完全来自农村;第三,中国人口惯性增长将突出表现为老年组人口规模大幅度的增长。     

人口迁移与新农村建设

本文从理论和实践两个层面上探讨了人口的乡城转移经济与转移不经济,以此考察社会主义新农村建设中的人口迁移问题。笔者认为,人口的乡城转移从长期和总体上是经济的,在现代化过程中,我们应该始终坚持促进农村人口向城市迁移;但是在特定的经济发展阶段中,因为速度、规模等问题使得人口乡城转移发生不经济问题,所以,通过建设新农村,发展农业和农村,可以矫正这些不经济现象。人口乡城转移不经济的发生是新农村建设的一个诱因,而新农村建设的目标之一是为了使人口的乡城转移合理、有序、渐进和经济。     

The Change and Trend of Population Momentum in China since 60 Years

This paper calculates total population momentum,urban and rural population momentum and agespecific population momentum in China since 60 years.The main findings and conclusions are as follows:Firstly,the power of population momentum of the positive growth is disappearing rapidly;Secondly,the cities are in the turning point of population momentum from positive to the negative growth while China’ s population growth was wholly attributable to momentum in the rural areas;Thirdly,China’ s population momentum of positive growth mainly is due to substantial growth of the old.     

The Relation Between Actual and Intrinsic Growth Rates

This paper demonstrates that, to a close approximation, the intrinsic growth rate of a population is equal to the mean of age-specific growth rates below age T, the mean length of a generation. This mean is normally close to the growth rate of the entire population block below age T. Therefore, when a disparity exists between the intrinsic growth rate and the actual growth rate of a population (whether or not net migration is included in both rates), it must be attributable to an unusual growth rate of the population block above age T. One implication is that the ‘momentum of population growth’ is entirely confined to the age span above T, approximately age 28 in developing countries to-day.     

人口现代化的测度指标体系构建问题研究

研究人口现代化,必须很好解决的一个问题就是要确定并建立一套可供参照的人口现代化指标体系。通过对人口现代化理论的基本把握,在确定数据样本及基本构建方法的基础上,以人口再生产类型现代化、人口素质现代化、人口结构现代化和逆人口现代化作为基本测度内容,以最能反映基本测度内容的指标群来构成考量人口现代化水平的通用指标体系。构建具有国际可比性或区域可比性、相对完善而更具指标体系特征和应用价值的人口现代化测度指标,为制定相应的人口发展战略、政策、规划等提供科学依据。     

Conditions determining the local stability of populations

The conditions that determine the local stability classification of an equilibrium population configuration are analyzed. The population investigated is age‐structured and density‐dependent, where density is determined by an age‐weighted population size. Two demographic parameters are introduced: the marginal birth rate and marginal death rate, which describe the marginal density‐dependence of the birth and death rates of the equilibrium population. Certain necessary and/or sufficient conditions determining stability are developed, most of them involving the net reproduction rate of the population, and examples illustrating these conditions are presented.     

Induced population growth and induced technological progress: Their interaction in the accelerating stage

A simple model of Malthusian population growth combined with population‐induced technological progress generates accelerating growth. The model may be relevant for a first stage of growth in which natural resource limitations can be overcome through technological progress; it is not applicable to a later stage in which resource constraints are more resistant. Parameter values are roughly inferred from historical experience. Exogenously more rapid population growth initially depresses income, perhaps for up to several centuries, then raises it without limit. More rapid population growth is desirable only when the social discount rate is less than the ratio of the parameters for induced technical progress and static diminishing returns. Imposed population fluctuations cause inverse movements in incomes, so that induced progress is very difficult to detect empirically even for population fluctuations up to 500 years.     

论人口素质在和谐社会发展中的作用

人口素质是社会历史发展的产物,它与社会的全面进步相联系,又给社会的全面发展以巨大的推动作用。和谐社会的发展离不开人口素质的提高。充分认识人口素质在和谐社会中的主导作用,将利于和谐社会的全面发展。人口素质的作用,可以概括为五个方面:人口科学文化素质有利于社会整体水平的提高,加速和谐社会的发展;人口政治素质能够调节社会矛盾,促进和谐社会的发展;人口身体素质能够推动经济进步,有助于和谐社会的发展;人口综合素质能够创造良好的人口环境,有利于和谐社会的发展;提高人口素质观的认识,确保和谐社会的发展。