印度人口发展状况与人口政策

基于印度人口发展的历史资料与最新统计数据,从规模、结构和空间分布三个维度剖析印度人口状况,指出人口总量持续增长但增速减缓、年龄结构变化平稳但性别比失衡、人口总体密集但区域差异较大、不受限制的人口流动加重了市政管理负担是当前印度人口发展的特点。对此,印度政府曾采取不少措施但收效甚微。研究发现,基于中印两国国情有很多共同之处,印度在经济发展中出现的人口问题以及所采取的人口政策对中国有所警示和启示。     

印度人口发展状况与人口政策

基于印度人口发展的历史资料与最新统计数据,从规模、结构和空间分布三个维度剖析印度人口状况,指出人口总量持续增长但增速减缓、年龄结构变化平稳但性别比失衡、人口总体密集但区域差异较大、不受限制的人口流动加重了市政管理负担是当前印度人口发展的特点。对此,印度政府曾采取不少措施但收效甚微。研究发现,基于中印两国国情有很多共同之处,印度在经济发展中出现的人口问题以及所采取的人口政策对中国有所警示和启示。     

印度国家人口政策的历史演进及影响因素研究

印度是世界上第一个在全国范围推行家庭计划的国家,也是世界上少数几个具有清晰人口政策的国家之一。从立国之初设计推动家庭计划政策到2000年最终形成清晰的国家人口政策,印度国家人口政策的历史演进大致经历了六个阶段。在61年的家庭计划实践与探索中,殖民因素与马尔萨斯主义、地域差异和城乡分割、土地制度与土地关系、宗教制度与传统文化、识字率及受教育机会、外国政府和国际组织援助、政府结构和政治斗争对人口政策的实施与走向产生了深远影响。尽管印度政府在不同发展阶段所期望的人口控制目标大都没有实现,但印度家庭计划为人类正确认识人口的生产和再生产规律做出了先驱性的贡献。印度的经验和教训说明,一国人口政策的制定应充分认识人口的社会性和历史性,人口政策的目标取向应更全面地关注人口、社会与经济的可持续发展。     

韩国人口政策及其对中国农村人口政策的启示

韩国的人口政策经历了由控制人口增长的计划生育政策到鼓励人口增长的新人口政策的转变,成功控制了人口的快速增长。缓解了人口与经济、社会资源、环境之间的矛盾,但也引起了人口老龄化、出生婴儿性别比失调等一系列社会问题。这些社会问题如今也正在中国农村上演。如能借鉴立法先行、大力发展社会福利事业、善于运用经济杠杆等经验,对维持中国农村人口的低出生率,抑制出生婴儿性别比例失调和人口老龄化的加剧具有积极的意义。     

关于人口增长、环境退化、贫困与政策取向的深层次思考

通过对人口增长与环境退化和贫困之间的关系分析,得出人口增长是环境恶化和资源过快耗竭的关键原因.而恶化的环境和资源的稀缺又导致贫困.在此基础上,提出了解决这个问题的政策取向--除了关键依靠科技进步和控制人口增长外,还应加强城镇化建设和停止误导性的开发.     

中国计划生育政策的人口效果评估

文章利用人口动力系统的人口发展方程,通过对不同方案1972~2000年间人口变动的模拟比较,发现计划生育政策实施的28年间中国累计少出生人口在2.64亿~3.20亿之间,总人口累计少增加2.31亿~2.99亿。同时,计划生育政策对人口出生率降低的最小贡献为57.88%,对人口自然增长率的降低贡献了61.21%。计划生育政策的实施,使总的劳动负担得到减轻,使20世纪末21世纪初迎来中国人口年龄结构的“黄金时期”,为社会经济发展提供最佳的机会、人力资源和条件,为实现人口可持续发展创造了可选择的良好人口环境和初始条件。     

“人口政策调整”有利于我国长期发展

全国人民期盼已久的生育政策调整终于在十八届三中全会通过的《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》（以下简称《决定》）中尘埃落定了。《决定》提出：＂坚持计划生育的基本国策,启动实施一方是独生子女的夫妇可以生育两个孩子的政策,逐步调整完善生育政策,促进人口长期均衡发展。＂这是我国进入21世纪以来生育政策的重大调整完善,是国家人口发展的重要战略决策。这一战略决策不仅符合广大人民群众的生育需求,更充分反映了我国人口形势发生根本性变化条件下经济社会发展的现实要求。中国人口转变用了世界上最短的时间。2010年全国第六次人口普查表明,     

2015～2100年中国人口与老龄化变动趋势

全面两孩政策的实施将对未来中国人口与老龄化变动趋势产生深远的影响,文章在充分考虑生育政策调整影响的基础上,依托2015年1％人口抽样调查数据对中国2015～2100年的人口规模和结构的变动趋势进行预测分析.结果显示:中国总人口规模将于2029年左右迎来峰值,此后将步入负增长时期,整个人口的年龄结构将不断老化;劳动年龄人口规模将处于持续缩减之中,劳动年龄人口比例在21世纪前半叶将快速下降、后半叶则将在波动中缓慢下降;老年人口规模将不断攀升,于2053年左右达到峰值,此后将开始逐年下降,老龄化程度在21世纪前半叶将快速提升,但到了21世纪后半叶,老龄化进程将逐渐放缓.     

全球人口干预与“新的中国选择”——超越“全面两孩”政策的思考

文章基于全球视角,利用联合国等机构发布的人口政策及生殖健康/计划生育数据,阐述国际社会人口调控与政策干预的总体变化趋势及特点,并在此基础上对未来中国计划生育的改革发展进行了思考,发现:近30多年来,在人口增长、生育水平、老龄化、生殖健康/计划生育以及国内乡-城迁移等人口政策的各个领域,全球采取不干预立场的国家数量和比例均在大幅下降,人口干预是世界性的时代潮流.全球超过90％的国家或地区都在践行计划生育,展现出这项实践的普适性、包容性和强大生命力.生殖健康促进极大地丰富和拓展了传统计划生育实践.建议中国的计划生育在人口政策等基本概念的区分、整合服务、“外围”政策支撑以及发挥社会组织“实体性”作用等方面推进改革创新.     

论我国人口安全中的人口数量问题

由于庞大的人口基数和持续增长的人口总量，在构成我国人口安全的所有要素中，人口数量对人口安全和社会经济发展所造成的影响是多方面的，因此，我们必须要以相应的对策来应对：第一，提高人口安全风险意识，树立科学的人口安全观；第二，继续稳定现行的人口生育政策，降低人口增长水平，实现人口的减量增长；第三，进一步完善有关人口政策和法律体系，从政策和法律层面控制人口数量，提高人口质量，确保我国的人口安全。     

The elimination of contraceptive acceptor targets and the evolution of population policy in India

In 1966 the government of India announced a new national population policy that eliminated numerical targets for new contraceptive acceptors. This paper examines the history of target setting in India and factors that led to the elimination of targets. The analysis is based on published and unpublished reports on India's population policy and the family planning programme and interviews with senior Indian and foreign officials and population specialists. Five factors are identified as playing a role in the evolution from target setting to a target-free policy:(1) the research of India's academics; (2) the work of women's health advocates; (3) the support of officials in the state bureaucracy who approved the target-free approach; (4) the influence of the donors to India's family planning programme, especially the World Bank; and (5) the International Conference on Population and Development.     

India's population: second and growing

Attention in this discussion of the population of India is directed to the following: international comparisons, population pressures, trends in population growth (interstate variations), sex ratio and literacy, urban-rural distribution, migration (interstate migration, international migration), fertility and mortality levels, fertility trends (birth rate decline, interstate fertility differentials, rural-urban fertility decline, fertility differentials by education and religion, marriage and fertility), mortality trends (mortality differentials, health care services), population pressures on socioeconomic development (per capita income and poverty, unemployment and employment, increasing foodgrain production, school enrollment shortfalls), the family planning program, implementing population policy statements, what actions would be effective, and goals and prospects for the future. India's population, a total of 684 million persons as of March 1, 1981, is 2nd only to the population of China. The 1981 population was up by 136 million persons, or 24.75%, over the 548 million enumerated in the 1971 census. For 1978, India's birth and death rates were estimated at 33.3 and 14.2/1000 population, down from about 41.1 and 18.9 during the mid-1960s. India's current 5-year plan has set a goal of a birth rate of 30/1000 population by 1985 and "replacement-level" fertility--about 2.3 births per woman--by 1996. The acceleration in India's population growth has come mainly in the past 3 decades and is due primarily to a decline in mortality that has markedly outstripped the fertility decline. The Janata Party which assumed government leadership in March 1977 did not dismantle the family planning program, but emphasis was shifted to promote family planning "without any compulsion, coercion or pressures of any sort." The policy statement stressed that efforts were to be directed towards those currently underserved, mainly in rural areas. Hard targets were rejected. Over the 1978-1981 period the family planning program slowly recovered. By March 1981, 33.4 million sterilizations had been performed since 1956 when statistics were 1st compiled. Another 3 million couples were estimated to be using IUDs and conventional contraceptives.     

Curbing population growth: lessons from India

India was 1 of the 1st countries to establish a national population policy program to reduce the heavy social and economic burden of rampant population growth. The 1985 US Agency for International Development survey highlights 3 measures that could contribute significantly to the success of population policy and family planning goals: 1) increase the age at marriage for women, 2) lengthen the interval between births, and 3) improve communications. The younger a girl's age at marriage 1) the younger she is likely to get pregnant, 2) the more babies she can have over her lifetime, and 3) the higher the country's population growth rate. The answer to short birth intervals is childspacing through contraceptive methods. The Indian government has already begun to retrain its health workers and other functionaries to enhance their role as communicators. This should do much to counter the attitudes, practices, and lack of knowledge that contribute to India's population growth.     

21世纪我国人口老化与生育政策选择

本文通过对不同生育率水平和不同生育政策选择方案下的我国21世纪人口发展趋势的预测,可以判断,制约我国21世纪初期的生育政策选择的因素不仅仅是人口总量压力,在实现人口规模控制在16亿以内的前提下,人口老化成为制约我们选择何种生育政策使我国21世纪中后叶人口年龄结构趋于优化的首要因素。     

云南省农业人口独生子女家庭少生奖励政策的实施与思考

新近推出的计划生育少生奖励政策是云南省人口与计划生育工作与时俱进、开拓创新的重大举措。自实施以来,受到广大农户的热烈欢迎,对新形势下云南省人口与计划生育工作起到了强有力的推进作用。同时调研发现,该政策在实施中也还存在一些亟待改进的问题。     

A Population Policy Rationale for the Twenty‐First Century

I propose that the primary goal of twenty‐first‐century population policies should be to strengthen the human resource base for national and global sustainable development. I discuss the shortcomings of the three dominant twentieth‐century population policy rationales: acceptance of replacement‐level fertility as a demographic goal; realizing a “demographic dividend” from the changing age structure; and filling the “unmet need” for family planning. I demonstrate that in all three cases the explicit incorporation of education into the model changes the picture and makes female education a key population policy priority. Population policies under this new rationale could be viewed as public human resource management. I argue that 20 years after the Cairo ICPD the international community needs a new rationale for population policies in the context of sustainable development and that a focus on human capital development, in particular education and health, is the most promising approach.     

实现小康社会目标与人口、社会经济可持续发展

人口发展速度过快、数量增长过多,将减少人均GDP的占有量,影响全面建设小康社会经济发展目标的实现和经济社会的可持续发展。继续稳定现行生育政策仍然是21世纪前半叶我国人口、社会经济可持续发展的基本战略决策。     

‘Bringing the unclothed immigrant into the World’: Population policies and gender in twentieth-century Australia

This paper considers several policy responses to declining birth rates in Australia over the twentieth century, revealing key continuities in the ‘administration of population’. Early in the century pronatalist policies to enhance fertility predominated. In spite of evidence in the 1890s, 1920s and 1940s that economics shaped family sizes and that women’s lives included paid work, little acknowledgment of this occurred outside wartime. In the second half of the twentieth century, immigration largely replaced pronatalism as a desired means of building population numbers. Century’s end brought new concerns about fertility decline, an ageing population, immigration and increased asylum seeking. These concerns revitalized the call for a population policy and raised unresolved questions for women. This expression comes from Mr Ozanne, speaker in the Commonwealth House of Representatives debate on the Maternity Allowance Bill, 1912, Australia, Commonwealth Parliamentary Debates, 3412. He spoke of ‘women doing their duty to Australia by bringing the unclothed immigrant into the world’.     

子女对计划生育政策态度的调查研究

计划生育政策是我国的一项基本国策 ,自计划生育政策实行以来 ,我国的人口出生率和自然增长率出现了较大下降 ,独生子女家庭成为家庭的主要形式。本文从子女的角度 ,通过实际调查 ,考察了年轻一代对计划生育政策的认识和看法 ,并基于调查和分析提出了若干相关的对策建议。     

Backing seen of population policy in AID

Congress is almost certain to agree to use of U.S. funds to motivate reduced population growth in developing countries but funding for sterilization abroad emerged as a political issue in the House. In the proposed U.S. AID budget, which in the past has been about 10% funded for direct population programs, a total concern with literacy for women, higher educational levels, and other developmental programs which increase motivation for family planning has been proposed. Zero Population Growth has sent telegrams to Congress supporting this basic development policy. The controversy over sterilization is the result of India's compulsory sterilization legislation. An amendment refusing to allow any U.S. funds to be used for sterilization programs was rejected, but in rejecting it, the members of the House of Representatives expressed their concern that any and all sterilization programs be completely voluntary. In a letter, AID Deputy Administrator Robert Nooter assured Congress that AID has no goals to sterilize any certain number of women around the world and it is not the main purpose of the AID program to to emphasize sterilization as a method of family planning.