A test and modification of zipf’s hypothesis for predicting interstate migration

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the accuracy of Zipf’s hypothesis in estimating interstate migration streams in the United States, and then to determine whether the predictive power of Zipf’s hypothesis can be improved by adding additional variables. The three independent variables in Zipf’s hypothesis accounted for 57 percent of the variation in interstate migration streams in 1935–1940, 61 percent in 1949–1950, and 68 percent in 1955–1960. The addition of per capita personal income of the states of origin and of destination increased the explained variance by only four percentage points in 1935–1940 and by less than one percentage point in 1949–1950 and 1955–1960. Then, the Petersen-Greenwood hypothesis that interstate migration streams in any period are a function of previous flows was tested by adding cumulative lifetime migration as an independent variable. Over 80 percent of the variation in interstate migration streams was explained by cumulative lifetime mobility, as reflected by state of birth data. The conclusion of the study is that the Petersen-Greenwood hypothesis provides a better estimate of interstate migration streams than does Zipf’s hypothesis. Nevertheless, the Petersen Greenwood hypothesis requires further evaluation to determine whether cumulative lifetime mobility is simply a proxy for some other underlying variable and whether it provides accurate estimates of migration streams for other geographic areas.     

Not on their own again: psychological, social, and health characteristics of custodial African American grandmothers

The article presents social and health indicators of depression among custodial African American grandmothers. Using a cross-sectional design, a sample of 99 custodial African American grandmothers caring for one or more grandchildren was included in the analysis. The results indicated that approximately 20% of custodial African American grandmothers were depressed. Depressed grandmothers were more likely to report having all ten chronic physical health conditions listed in the study. One additional chronic condition increased the probability of depression by 68%. Old age, more social support, and caring for older children were associated with low levels of depression. The proliferation of grandchildren being raised by African American grandmothers suggests the need for more research, policy, and programmatic interventions.     

Not on Their Own Again: Psychological,Social, and Health Characteristics of Custodial African American Grandmothers

SUMMARY

The article presents social and health indicators of depression among custodial African American grandmothers. Using a cross-sectional design, a sample of 99 custodial African American grandmothers caring for one or more grandchildren was included in the analysis. The results indicated that approximately 20% of custodial African American grandmothers were depressed. Depressed grandmothers were more likely to report having all ten chronic physical health conditions listed in the study. One additional chronic condition increased the probability of depression by 68%. Old age, more social support, and caring for older children were associated with low levels of depression. The proliferation of grandchildren being raised by African American grandmothers suggests the need for more research, policy, and programmatic interventions.     

Multistate Transfer Rate Estimation from Adjacent Populations

In multistate populations, the rates of interstate transfer cannot generally be determined from the size and composition of the populations at the beginning and end of a time interval. With N living states, the population data give only N equations to determine the N ² possible rates. Here, the QERT (quadratic estimation of rates of transfer) approach is advanced that allows the transfer rates to be estimated when the products of selected pairs of rates can be assumed constant. The solution can be written in closed form and, for N living states, involves no more than N?1 quadratic equations. Compared to the leading alternative approaches, QERT provides very similar numerical estimates, while yielding the underlying behavioral rates, having flexible input requirements, accommodating all structural zeros, and reproducing the exact solution when interstate transfers are strictly hierarchical. The QERT approach is applied to construct labor force life tables for U.S. men and women for 2005–2010. The results show that labor force participation differences between men and women have continued to narrow, and that the QERT approach can generate robust worklife estimates. QERT thus provides new opportunities for demographic analysis in the absence of direct data on behavioral rates.     

Long-term multivariate prediction of migration patterns

In- and out-migration rates of 56 Israeli cities with a population of over 5000 were predicted for a five-year period (1977–1981), on the basis of four 1976 social indicators: crime rate, percent unemployment, population size and distance from a major metropolitan center. Rather than employ independent correlation coefficients, the four indicators were entered as predictors into regression equations with in- and out-migration rates serving as the dependent variable. The analytic methods are compared and the clear advantages of the regression method emerge. None of the indicators reliably predicted in-migration. Crime consistently predicted out-migration. Distance and unemployment each entered into three of the prediction models.     

Urbanization in Thailand, 1947–1967

Utilizing both census and population register data for the period 1947–1967, this analysis assesses changing levels and rates of urbanization in Thailand, compares regional variations in urbanization patterns, and relates such differences to selected indicators of economic and demographic development. Although the overall level of urbanization remains low, the rate of urbanization is high and the increase in the number of moderate sized urban places significant. Greater Bangkok, accounting for over half of Thailand’s urban population and almost two–thirds of all urban growth, has increased its primacy in Thailand’s urban structure. But urban development has also begun to permeate all regions of the country and to be an important factor in the complex process of national social and economic development.     

A comparison of the determinants of white and nonwhite interstate migration

The primary objective of this study is to present an explanation of the interstate migratory movements of white and nonwhite persons which occurred over the period 1955–1960. The study is similar to several other recent studies in that we estimate the magnitudes in which various factors have influenced interstate or interregional migration in the United States. It differs from earlier studies in two important respects. First, we estimate and compare the magnitudes in which certain factors have influenced both white and nonwhite interstate migration. Second, unlike previous studies, many of which have made “country-wide” estimates of the determinants of migration, we have disaggregated data to the state level and obtained white and nonwhite “migration elasticities” for every state. These elasticities are in turn used to test several additional hypotheses relating to racial and regional differences in the elasticities themselves. We argue that discrimination against nonwhites and/or differences in “social milieu” between South and nonsouth provide a unifying explanation for most of the observed differences in white and nonwhite migration elasticities.     

Social factors as predictors of internal migration patterns in Israel

The influence of 1975 crime and poverty-dependence factor scores on 1976–1980 internal migration rates in Israel was studied. Lag correlations between the two factor scores and in and out migration revealed that poverty-dependence was strongly and negatively related to in-migration and moderately and negatively related to out-migration. No relationship was found between crime and in-migration over the five year period, but a strong positive relationship was indicated between crime and outmigration. It was thus shown that social indicators such as crime and poverty-dependence revealed lasting effects on migration rates, and may be an aid to social planners.     

Work disability and migration in the early years of welfare reform

The inter- and intra-state migration of American families with work-disabled members is a neglected area of empirical study. Longitudinal migration and health status data from the 1996 Panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) are merged with state-level welfare policy indicators to investigate migration behavior under welfare reform’s emphasis on requiring work and encouraging reliance on social support networks. We use a nested discrete-choice event history model that incorporates the departure decision and interstate destination choice in a single model that tests the effects of state-level welfare policy and economic opportunity characteristics, with state fixed effects, plus family sociodemographic characteristics and social networks, as the basis for comparing migration of families with and without work disabilities. The results show that although families with disabilities and illnesses are less likely to migrate than other families generally, they are “pushed” to migrate if they live in states that do not exempt them from TANF activities requirements. Furthermore, in-migration is inhibited by stringent state welfare illness exemption rules and high state unemployment rates. Intrastate migration is more likely among families who received family and community social support, regardless of work-disability status.     

Bridging the gap: Determining long-term changes in infant mortality in pre-registration England and Wales

Much effort has been expended in analysing a small sample of parish registers to produce national estimates of infant mortality for the period 1570–1840. However, in an age when inter-parish variations in infant mortality were considerable, national trends often obscured local and regional differences. By analysing data from the initial years of Civil Registration (1839–1846) together with infant mortality rates from a range of parishes, it is possible to assess the extent of variation and change in England and Wales during the period 1580–1840. The geographical variations in infant mortality and the age structure of infant deaths were sufficient to suggest that the most important influence on whether infants survived was disease environments.     

Social indicators: A statistician's view

In the following we consider the problem areas of social indicator research which are of concern to the statistician and in which he can prove helpful. Among these are the purposes of social indicators, what social variables should be considered as conceivable variables related to quality of life, what data should be collected taking in account the difficulty of not being able to directly measure variables of interest, how does one collect the data (which is usually in the form of a time series) guarding against multicollinearity, and how should the collected data be handled and analyzed. We discuss why in social indicator research the secular trends, cyclical movements, seasonal variations and irregular fluctuations must be taken into account. Techniques are discussed for relating lead indicators in one time period to coincident indicators in another period. Finally we present a select bibliography in canonical correlation, forecasting, indicators and index numbers, path analysis, regression analysis, simulation techniques, time series analysis and other areas useful in analyzing social indicator data.     

Factors Associated With Temporal and Spatial Patterns in Suicide Rates Across U.S. States, 1976–2000

Using pooled cross-sectional time-series data for the 50 U.S. states over a 25-year period, this article examines how well four conceptual groups of social correlates—demographic, economic, social, and cultural factors—are associated with the 1976–2000 patterns in overall suicide rates and suicide by firearms and other means. Unlike past research that typically considers only one dimension, this analysis differentiates between spatial and temporal variation in suicide rates to determine whether and how social correlates operate differently in these two contexts. Results indicate that suicide rates correspond closely to social correlates. Within U.S. states, lower overall suicide rates between 1976 and 2000 were associated with demographic change (e.g., larger numbers of foreign-born) as well as with fewer numbers of Episcopalians. Across U.S. states, variation in overall suicide rates over the period was related to demographic (percentage male), economic (per capita income), social (percentage divorced), and cultural (alcohol consumption and gun ownership) factors. However, findings differ importantly by type of suicide, and across time and space. Reasons for these distinct patterns are discussed.     

Quantitative output of the criminal justice system

Time series trends in the processing of the seven major Index Offenses are assessed over the years 1953–76. Five types of offense-standardized criminal justice processing indicators are defined (arrest, clearance, formal charge, guilty-as-charged, and guilty-but-reduced rates or ratios) and calculated. Comparing patterns over time to evaluate overall processing trends, these data indicate generally positive correlations of processing indicators over the period studied and confirm the hypothesized decline in processing input-output rates and ratios since about 1960. The hypothesized impact of crime rates and juvenile arrest percentage upon these trends is supported generally by structural equation and difference equation analysis. Our analysis indicates that much of the processing trend indeed can be explained in terms of caseload pressures and the proportion of juvenile arrests which drive down the ‘performance’ of the examined processing indicators.     

Measuring public sector size in the advanced market economy countries: The problem of deflators

A great deal of scholarly attention has been directed to understanding the causes of the growth of the public sector in the developed market economy countries in recent decades. Unfortunately, this literature has been clouded by uncertainty over measurement of the central variable at issue, the relative size of the public sector. Traditionally, public sector size has been measured as the ratio of government expenditures to GDP, with both figures expressed in current national currencies. Recently, however, this standard approach has been criticized by those who argue that figures for government expenditures and GDP should be separately deflated to account for different rates of inflation in the public sector and the economy as a whole. The purpose of this paper is to explore the empirical relationship between same- and different-deflator indicators of public sector size, focusing on social expenditures in 19 developed market economy countries over the period 1960–1981. The analysis finds that same- and different-deflator indicators are generally strongly correlated and that the choice of deflators, while of some importance, is not of overriding significance in assessing four major explanation of public sector growth in the countries examined.     

Spatial inequalities in Western cities: A comparison of North American and German urban areas

Since metropolitan areas in North America and Western Europe reflect similar social and economic divisions in society; similar degrees of spatial inequality for social and housing indicators are expected. This proposition was tested for seven cities (four in West Germany, two in the United States and one in Canada) for 1960–61 and 1970–71. Eight of the nine social indicators showed approximately equal inequality scores, once scale differences are controlled. Minority groups in American cities were significantly more spatially concentrated than those in German or Canadian cities. Areas of multiple housing deprivation were more clearly defined in American cities and the populations living in these areas were predominantly minority, old, renters and welfare recipients, a sharp contrast to deprived areas in cities in the other two nations. The German urban social mosaic is becoming more ‘Americanized’ as postwar housing shortages give way to increased homeownership, suburbanization and greater social class segregation.     

An Index of Maternal and Child Healthcare Status in India: Measuring Inter- and Intra-State Variations from Capability Perspectives

Despite remarkable progress in past few decades India’s current maternal and child mortality levels fall significantly short to attain many of the targets of MDGs. The variation in attainments across and within regions has always been a crucial dimension of Indian concerns. The present paper takes a closer look at the spatial variation of maternal and child healthcare status in India by summarising a set of constituent indicators that are instrumental in nature, and result in debilitating outcomes for women and their newborn. Taking the stock of information generated by the third round of District Level Health and Facility Survey (DLHS-3) this paper adopts the Pena Distance Method to gauge the spatial variations. The states are classified first in terms of their MCH status in 2007–2008. At later stage intrastate disparities are captured by measuring rural–urban inequality, and inter-district disparity within states. Key results indicate that the overall state ranking is, to a significant extent, explained by the intrastate variations. However, the major contribution of this paper lies in quantifying the relative role of constituent indicators that are responsible for the existing disparities across and within state boundaries.     

The longevity of Jews in Canada, 1940–1942

A life table for the Jewish population of Canada, based upon their mortality experience during 1940–2, yielded an average length of life (expectation of life at birth) of 67–53 years for males and 69·89 years for females. These figures are greater than those for the general population of Canada by 4·58 years for males and 3·60 years for females. These margins decrease with advance in age; the expectations of life for Jews and for the total Canadian population are equal at age 25 in the case of females, and at age 35 in the case of males.

Jewish infants in Canada start life with a mortality rate, in the first year, only two-fifths of that for the general population. This advantage for Jews is observed through childhood, adolescence, and early maturity. However, the margin between the Jewish and total populations decreased with advance in age until, shortly after age 50, the Jews begin to show the higher mortality rates.

The Jewish populations of the United States and of Canada have great similarities in their social and economic structures. They also share, very largely, in their European origins, and they have come to North America during the same period. It is, therefore, a fair assumption that the longevity and mortality characteristics of the relatively small Jewish population of Canada may be indicative of what might be found for the millions of Jews in the United States, for whom such information is not available.     

Mortality and Metropolis: The Case of London 1675–1825

Recent work in population history emphasizes that demographic phenomena should be seen in a wider social and economic context. This perspective is, however, more easily achieved in the case of fertility than of mortality, which is widely treated as a variable ‘exogenous’ to economy and society. In the present paper it is argued that the inclusion of spatial structure and migration in accounts of historical demographic regimes can restore long-term variations in mortality to an ‘endogenous’ position. Within such a model a central role is played by large metropolitan populations, which act as endemic reservoirs of infection, with high but relatively stable levels of mortality. Data from the annual London Bills of Mortality allow empirical testing for the period 1675–1825, with results which generally conform to theoretical expectations, although a substantial reduction in mortality occurs during the latter part of the period.     

The Spatial Distribution of Quality of Life in the United States and Interstate Migration, 1965–1970 and 1985–1990

This study applies a relatively new method called ‘co-plot’ to examine the relationships between the 48 contiguous states of the United States and selected indicators of quality of life in 1970 and 1990, and how these characteristics coincide with five-year interstate migration rates. The findings show an overall process of polarization of quality of life throughout the country. Strong similarity was found between states of a given division or region. The states which composed New England, the Middle Atlantic and the Pacific divisions are located in the strong sector of the socio-economic space. The direction of migration is toward states of the more external belts of the country. In the second part, multiple regression analysis was applied revealing a strong effect of economic incentives on migration; over time; migration turns into a widespread phenomenon among different socio-economic groups, with income becoming less significant as a predictor of interstate migration.